Abstract: The present paper used time-varying parameters which are based on the score function of a probability density at time t to model volatility of saving rate. We used a scaled likelihood function to update the parameters of the model overtime. Our results revealed high diligence of time-varying since the location parameter is greater than zero. Furthermore, we discovered a leptokurtic condition on saving rate’s distribution. Kapetanios, Shin-Shell Nonlinear Augmented Dickey-Fuller (KSS-NADF) test showed that the saving rate has a nonlinear unit root; therefore, it can be modeled by a generalised autoregressive score (GAS) model. Additionally, value at risk (VaR) and conditional tail expectation (CTE) indicate that 99% of the time people in Lesotho are saving more than spending. This puts the economy in high risk of not expanding. Therefore, the monetary policy committee (MPC) of Lesotho should revise their monetary policies towards this high saving rates risk.
Abstract: The under-5 mortality rate is high in sub-Saharan Africa with Lesotho being amongst the highest under-5 mortality rates in the world. The objective of the study is to determine the factors associated with under-5 mortality in Lesotho. The data used for this analysis come from the nationally representative household survey called the 2009 Lesotho Demographic and Health Survey. Odds ratios produced by the logistic regression models were used to measure the effect of each independent variable on the dependent variable. Female children were significantly 38% less likely to die than male children. Children who were breastfed for 13 to 18 months and those who were breastfed for more than 19 months were significantly less likely to die than those who were breastfed for 12 months or less. Furthermore, children of mothers who stayed in Quthing, Qacha’s Nek and Thaba Tseka ran the greatest risk of dying. The results suggested that: sex of child, type of birth, breastfeeding duration, district, source of energy and marital status were significant predictors of under-5 mortality, after correcting for all variables.
Abstract: Rural tourism is usually associated with rural
development because it has strong linkages to rural resources; but it
remains underdeveloped compared to urban tourism. This
underdevelopment of rural tourism serves as a motivation for this
study whose aim is to examine the factors affecting the perceived
satisfaction of rural tourists. The objectives of this study are: to
identify and design theories and models on rural tourism satisfaction,
and to empirically validate these models and theories through a
survey of tourists from the Malealea Lodge which is located in the
Mafeteng District, in the Mountain Kingdom of Lesotho. Data
generated by the collection of questionnaires used by this survey was
analyzed quantitatively using descriptive statistics and correlations in
SPSS after checking the validity and the reliability of the
questionnaire. The main hypothesis behind this study is the
relationship between the demographics of rural tourists, their
motivation, and their satisfaction, as supported by existing literature;
except that motivation is measured in this study according to three
dimensions: push factors, pull factors, and perceived usefulness of
ICTs in the rural tourism experience. Findings from this study
indicate that among the demographics factors, continent of origin and
marital status influence the satisfaction of rural tourists; and their
occupation affects their perceptions on the use of ICTs in rural
tourism. Moreover, only pull factors were found to influence the
satisfaction of rural tourists.