Abstract: Gold passbook is an investing tool that is especially
suitable for investors to do small investment in the solid gold. The gold
passbook has the lower risk than other ways investing in gold, but its
price is still affected by gold price. However, there are many factors
can cause influences on gold price. Therefore, building a model to
predict the price of gold passbook can both reduce the risk of
investment and increase the benefits. This study investigates the
important factors that influence the gold passbook price, and utilize
the Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) to build the predictive
model. This method can not only obtain the significant variables but
also perform well in prediction. Finally, the significant variables of
gold passbook price, which can be predicted by GMDH, are US dollar
exchange rate, international petroleum price, unemployment rate,
whole sale price index, rediscount rate, foreign exchange reserves,
misery index, prosperity coincident index and industrial index.
Abstract: This conference paper discusses a risk allocation problem for subprime investing banks involving investment in subprime structured mortgage products (SMPs) and Treasuries. In order to solve this problem, we develop a L'evy process-based model of jump diffusion-type for investment choice in subprime SMPs and Treasuries. This model incorporates subprime SMP losses for which credit default insurance in the form of credit default swaps (CDSs) can be purchased. In essence, we solve a mean swap-at-risk (SaR) optimization problem for investment which determines optimal allocation between SMPs and Treasuries subject to credit risk protection via CDSs. In this regard, SaR is indicative of how much protection investors must purchase from swap protection sellers in order to cover possible losses from SMP default. Here, SaR is defined in terms of value-at-risk (VaR). Finally, we provide an analysis of the aforementioned optimization problem and its connections with the subprime mortgage crisis (SMC).
Abstract: Biometric techniques are gaining importance for
personal authentication and identification as compared to the
traditional authentication methods. Biometric templates are
vulnerable to variety of attacks due to their inherent nature. When a
person-s biometric is compromised his identity is lost. In contrast to
password, biometric is not revocable. Therefore, providing security
to the stored biometric template is very crucial. Crypto biometric
systems are authentication systems, which blends the idea of
cryptography and biometrics. Fuzzy vault is a proven crypto
biometric construct which is used to secure the biometric templates.
However fuzzy vault suffer from certain limitations like nonrevocability,
cross matching. Security of the fuzzy vault is affected
by the non-uniform nature of the biometric data. Fuzzy vault when
hardened with password overcomes these limitations. Password
provides an additional layer of security and enhances user privacy.
Retina has certain advantages over other biometric traits. Retinal
scans are used in high-end security applications like access control to
areas or rooms in military installations, power plants, and other high
risk security areas. This work applies the idea of fuzzy vault for
retinal biometric template. Multimodal biometric system
performance is well compared to single modal biometric systems.
The proposed multi modal biometric fuzzy vault includes combined
feature points from retina and fingerprint. The combined vault is
hardened with user password for achieving high level of security.
The security of the combined vault is measured using min-entropy.
The proposed password hardened multi biometric fuzzy vault is
robust towards stored biometric template attacks.
Abstract: This study investigated the number of Aedes larvae,
the key breeding sites of Aedes sp., and the relationship between
climatic factors and the incidence of DHF in Samui Islands. We
conducted our questionnaire and larval surveys from randomly
selected 105 households in Samui Islands in July-September 2006.
Pearson-s correlation coefficient was used to explore the primary
association between the DHF incidence and all climatic factors.
Multiple stepwise regression technique was then used to fit the
statistical model. The results showed that the positive indoor
containers were small jars, cement tanks, and plastic tanks. The
positive outdoor containers were small jars, cement tanks, plastic
tanks, used cans, tires, plastic bottles, discarded objects, pot saucers,
plant pots, and areca husks. All Ae. albopictus larval indices (i.e., CI,
HI, and BI) were higher than Ae. aegypti larval indices in this area.
These larval indices were higher than WHO standard. This indicated
a high risk of DHF transmission at Samui Islands. The multiple
stepwise regression model was y = –288.80 + 11.024xmean temp. The
mean temperature was positively associated with the DHF incidence
in this area.
Abstract: In this article, we propose an Intelligent Medical
Diagnostic System (IMDS) accessible through common
web-based interface, to on-line perform initial screening for
osteoporosis. The fundamental approaches which construct the
proposed system are mainly based on the fuzzy-neural theory,
which can exhibit superiority over other conventional technologies
in many fields. In diagnosis process, users simply answer
a series of directed questions to the system, and then they
will immediately receive a list of results which represents the
risk degrees of osteoporosis. According to clinical testing results,
it is shown that the proposed system can provide the general
public or even health care providers with a convenient, reliable,
inexpensive approach to osteoporosis risk assessment.
Abstract: One of the most important aspects expected from ERP systems is to integrate various operations existing in administrative, financial, commercial, human resources, and production departments of the consumer organization. Also, it is often needed to integrate the new ERP system with the organization legacy systems when implementing the ERP package in the organization. Without relying on an appropriate software architecture to realize the required integration, ERP implementation processes become error prone and time consuming; in some cases, the ERP implementation may even encounters serious risks. In this paper, we propose a new architecture that is based on the agent oriented vision and supplies the integration expected from ERP systems using several independent but cooperator agents. Besides integration which is the main issue of this paper, the presented architecture will address some aspects of intelligence and learning capabilities existing in ERP systems
Abstract: Financial literacy is one of the key factors needed in making informed financial decisions. As businesses continue to be more profit driven, more financial and economic intrigues arise that continue to put individuals at the risk of spending more and more without considering the short term and long term effects. We conducted a study to assess financial literacy and financial decision making among Emiratis. Our results show that financial literacy is lacking among Emiratis. Also, almost half of respondents owe loans to other peoples and 1/5 of them have bank loans. We expect that the outcome of this research will be useful for designing educational programs and policies to promote financial planning and security among Emiratis. We also posit that deeper and more informed understanding of this problem is a precursor for developing effective financial education programs with the aim of improving financial decision- making among Emiratis.
Abstract: Market competition and a desire to gain advantages on globalized market, drives companies towards innovation efforts. Project overload is an unpleasant phenomenon, which is happening for employees inside those organizations trying to make the most efficient use of their resources to be innovative. But what are the impacts of project overload on organization-s innovation capabilities? Advanced engineering teams (AE) inside a major heavy equipment manufacturer are suffering from project overload in their quest for innovation. In this paper, Agent-based modeling (ABM) is used to examine the current reality of the company context, and of the AE team, where the opportunities and challenges for reducing the risk of project overload and moving towards innovation were identified. Project overload is more likely to stifle innovation and creativity inside teams. On the other hand, motivations on proper challenging goals are more likely to help individual to alleviate the negative aspects of low level of project overload.
Abstract: Over a million tonnes of cigarette butts (CBs) are produced worldwide annually. These CBs accumulate in the environment due to the poor biodegradability of the cellulose acetate filters and pose a serious environmental risk. This paper presents some of the results from a continuing study on recycling CBs into fired clay bricks. Properties including compressive strength, flexural strength, density, water absorption and thermal conductivity of fired clay bricks are reported and discussed. Furthermore, leaching of heavy metals from the manufactured clay bricks was tested. The results show that the density of fired bricks was reduced by about 8 – 30 %, depending on the percentage of CBs incorporated into the raw materials. The compressive strength of bricks tested was 12.57, 5.22 and 3.00 MPa for 2.5, 5.0 and 10 % CB content respectively. Water absorption and initial rate of absorption values increased as density, and hence porosity, of bricks decreased with increasing CB volume. The leaching test results revealed trace amounts of heavy metals.
Abstract: The paper presents dynamic programming based model as a planning tool for the maintenance of electric power systems. Every distribution component has an exponential age depending reliability function to model the fault risk. In the moment of time when the fault costs exceed the investment costs of the new component the reinvestment of the component should be made. However, in some cases the overhauling of the old component may be more economical than the reinvestment. The comparison between overhauling and reinvestment is made by optimisation process. The goal of the optimisation process is to find the cost minimising maintenance program for electric power distribution system.
Abstract: It is well known that Logistic Regression is the gold
standard method for predicting clinical outcome, especially
predicting risk of mortality. In this paper, the Decision Tree method
has been proposed to solve specific problems that commonly use
Logistic Regression as a solution. The Biochemistry and
Haematology Outcome Model (BHOM) dataset obtained from
Portsmouth NHS Hospital from 1 January to 31 December 2001 was
divided into four subsets. One subset of training data was used to
generate a model, and the model obtained was then applied to three
testing datasets. The performance of each model from both methods
was then compared using calibration (the χ2 test or chi-test) and
discrimination (area under ROC curve or c-index). The experiment
presented that both methods have reasonable results in the case of the
c-index. However, in some cases the calibration value (χ2) obtained
quite a high result. After conducting experiments and investigating
the advantages and disadvantages of each method, we can conclude
that Decision Trees can be seen as a worthy alternative to Logistic
Regression in the area of Data Mining.
Abstract: In the context of global climate change, flooding and sea level rise is increasingly threatening coastal urban areas, in which large population is continuously concentrated. Dutch experiences in urban water system management provide high reference value for sustainable coastal urban development projects. Preliminary studies shows the urban water system in Almere, a typical Dutch polder city, have three kinds of operational modes, achieving functions as: (1) coastline control – strong multiple damming system prevents from storm surges and maintains sufficient capacity upon risks; (2) high flexibility – large area and widely scattered open water system greatly reduce local runoff and water level fluctuation; (3) internal water maintenance – weir and sluice system maintains relatively stable water level, providing excellent boating and landscaping service, coupling with water circulating model maintaining better water quality. Almere has provided plenty of hints and experiences for ongoing development of coastal cities in emerging economies.
Abstract: The importance of ensuring safe meat handling and
processing practices has been demonstrated in global reports on food
safety scares and related illness and deaths. This necessitated stricter
meat safety control strategies. Today, many countries have regulated
towards preventative and systematic control over safe meat
processing at abattoirs utilizing the Hazard Analysis Critical Control
Point (HACCP) principles. HACCP systems have been reported as
effective in managing food safety risks, if correctly implemented.
South Africa has regulated the Hygiene Management System (HMS)
based on HACCP principles applicable to abattoirs. Regulators utilise
the Hygiene Assessment System (HAS) to audit compliance at
abattoirs. These systems were benchmarked from the United
Kingdom (UK). Little research has been done them since inception as
of 2004. This paper presents a review of the two systems, its
implementation and comparison with HACCP. Recommendations are
made for future research to demonstrate the utility of the HMS and
HAS in assuring safe meat to consumers.
Abstract: The present study has been carried out with a view to calculate the coastal vulnerability index (CVI) to know the high and low sensitive areas and area of inundation due to future SLR. Both conventional and remotely sensed data were used and analyzed through the modelling technique. Out of the total study area, 8.26% is very high risk, 14.21% high, 9.36% medium, 22.46% low and 7.35% in the very low vulnerable category, due to costal components. Results of the inundation analysis indicate that 225.2 km² and 397 km² of the land area will be submerged by flooding at 1m and 10m inundation levels. The most severely affected sectors are expected to be the residential, industrial and recreational areas. As this coast is planned for future coastal developmental activities, measures such as industrializations, building regulation, urban growth planning and agriculture, development of an integrated coastal zone management, strict enforcement of the Coastal Regulation Zone (CRZ) Act, monitoring of impacts and further research in this regard are recommended for the study area.