Abstract: In this paper a new method is suggested for risk
management by the numerical patterns in data-mining. These patterns
are designed using probability rules in decision trees and are cared to
be valid, novel, useful and understandable. Considering a set of
functions, the system reaches to a good pattern or better objectives.
The patterns are analyzed through the produced matrices and some
results are pointed out. By using the suggested method the direction
of the functionality route in the systems can be controlled and best
planning for special objectives be done.
Abstract: In recent years, the number of natural disasters in Laos has a trend to increase, especially the disaster of flood. To make a flood plan risk management in the future, it is necessary to understand and analyze the characteristics of the rainfall and Mekong River level data. To reduce the damage, this paper presents the flood risk analysis in Luangprabang and Vientiane, the prefecture of Laos. In detail, the relationship between the rainfall and the Mekong River level has evaluated and appropriate countermeasure for flood was discussed.
Abstract: Global environmental changes lead to increased frequency and scale of natural disaster, Taiwan is under the influence of global warming and extreme weather. Therefore, the vulnerability was increased and variability and complexity of disasters is relatively enhanced. The purpose of this study is to consider the source and magnitude of hazard characteristics on the tourism industry. Using modern risk management concepts, integration of related domestic and international basic research, this goes beyond the Taiwan typhoon disaster risk assessment model and evaluation of loss. This loss evaluation index system considers the impact of extreme weather, in particular heavy rain on the tourism industry in Taiwan. Consider the extreme climate of the compound impact of disaster for the tourism industry; we try to make multi-hazard risk assessment model, strategies and suggestions. Related risk analysis results are expected to provide government department, the tourism industry asset owners, insurance companies and banking include tourist disaster risk necessary information to help its tourism industry for effective natural disaster risk management.
Abstract: A business case is a proposal for an investment
initiative to satisfy business and functional requirements. The
business case provides the foundation for tactical decision making
and technology risk management. It helps to clarify how the
organization will use its resources in the best way by providing
justification for investment of resources. This paper describes how
simulation was used for business case benefits and return on
investment for the procurement of 8 production machines. With
investment costs of about 4.7 million dollars and annual operating
costs of about 1.3 million, we needed to determine if the machines
would provide enough cost savings and cost avoidance. We
constructed a model of the existing factory environment consisting of
8 machines and subsequently, we conducted average day simulations
with light and heavy volumes to facilitate planning decisions
required to be documented and substantiated in the business case.
Abstract: Risk management is an essential fraction of project management, which plays a significant role in project success. Many failures associated with Web projects are the consequences of poor awareness of the risks involved and lack of process models that can serve as a guideline for the development of Web based applications. To circumvent this problem, contemporary process models have been devised for the development of conventional software. This paper introduces the WPRiMA (Web Project Risk Management Assessment) as the tool, which is used to implement RIAP, the risk identification architecture pattern model, which focuses upon the data from the proprietor-s and vendor-s perspectives. The paper also illustrates how WPRiMA tool works and how it can be used to calculate the risk level for a given Web project, to generate recommendations in order to facilitate risk avoidance in a project, and to improve the prospects of early risk management.
Abstract: A new deployment of the multiple criteria decision
making (MCDM) techniques: the Simple Additive Weighting
(SAW), and the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to
Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) for portfolio allocation, is demonstrated in
this paper. Rather than exclusive reference to mean and variance as in
the traditional mean-variance method, the criteria used in this
demonstration are the first four moments of the portfolio distribution.
Each asset is evaluated based on its marginal impacts to portfolio
higher moments that are characterized by trapezoidal fuzzy numbers.
Then centroid-based defuzzification is applied to convert fuzzy
numbers to the crisp numbers by which SAW and TOPSIS can be
deployed. Experimental results suggest the similar efficiency of these
MCDM approaches to selecting dominant assets for an optimal
portfolio under higher moments. The proposed approaches allow
investors flexibly adjust their risk preferences regarding higher
moments via different schemes adapting to various (from
conservative to risky) kinds of investors. The other significant
advantage is that, compared to the mean-variance analysis, the
portfolio weights obtained by SAW and TOPSIS are consistently
well-diversified.
Abstract: This paper aims to provide a conceptual framework to examine competitive disadvantage of banks that suffer from poor performance. Banks generate revenues mainly from the interest rate spread on taking deposits and making loans while collecting fees in the process. To maximize firm value, banks seek loan growth and expense control while managing risk associated with loans with respect to non-performing borrowers or narrowing interest spread between assets and liabilities. Competitive disadvantage refers to the failure to access imitable resources and to build managing capabilities to gain sustainable return given appropriate risk management. This paper proposes a four-quadrant framework of organizational typology is subsequently proposed to examine the features of competitive disadvantage in the banking sector. A resource configuration model, which is extracted from CAMEL indicators to examine the underlying features of bank failures.
Abstract: Mobile banking services present a unique growth
opportunity for mobile operators in emerging markets, and have
already made good progress in bringing financial services to the
previously unbanked populations of many developing countries. The
potential is amazing, but what about the risks? In the complex
process of establishing a mobile banking business model, many kinds
of risks and factors need to be monitored and well-managed. Risk
identification is the first stage of risk management. Correct risk
identification ensures risk management effectiveness. Keeping the
risks low makes it possible to use the full potential of mobile banking
and carry out the planned business strategy. The focus should be on
adoption of consumers which is the main risk factor of mobile
banking services.
Abstract: Automatic reading of handwritten cheque is a computationally
complex process and it plays an important role in financial
risk management. Machine vision and learning provide a viable
solution to this problem. Research effort has mostly been focused
on recognizing diverse pitches of cheques and demand drafts with an
identical outline. However most of these methods employ templatematching
to localize the pitches and such schemes could potentially
fail when applied to different types of outline maintained by the
bank. In this paper, the so-called outline problem is resolved by
a cheque information tree (CIT), which generalizes the localizing
method to extract active-region-of-entities. In addition, the weight
based density plot (WBDP) is performed to isolate text entities and
read complete pitches. Recognition is based on texture features using
neural classifiers. Legal amount is subsequently recognized by both
texture and perceptual features. A post-processing phase is invoked
to detect the incorrect readings by Type-2 grammar using the Turing
machine. The performance of the proposed system was evaluated
using cheque and demand drafts of 22 different banks. The test data
consists of a collection of 1540 leafs obtained from 10 different
account holders from each bank. Results show that this approach
can easily be deployed without significant design amendments.