Abstract: Pipelines are extensively used engineering structures
which convey fluid from one place to another. Most of the time,
pipelines are placed underground and are encumbered by soil weight
and traffic loads. Corrosion of pipe material is the most common
form of pipeline deterioration and should be considered in both the
strength and serviceability analysis of pipes.
The study in this research focuses on concrete pipes in sewage
systems (concrete sewers). This research firstly investigates how to
involve the effect of corrosion as a time dependent process of
deterioration in the structural and failure analysis of this type of pipe.
Then three probabilistic time dependent reliability analysis methods
including the first passage probability theory, the gamma distributed
degradation model and the Monte Carlo simulation technique are
discussed and developed. Sensitivity analysis indexes which can be
used to identify the most important parameters that affect pipe failure
are also discussed.
The reliability analysis methods developed in this paper contribute
as rational tools for decision makers with regard to the strengthening
and rehabilitation of existing pipelines. The results can be used to
obtain a cost-effective strategy for the management of the sewer
system.
Abstract: Many approaches to pattern recognition are founded on probability theory, and can be broadly characterized as either generative
or discriminative according to whether or not the distribution of the image features. Generative and discriminative models have
very different characteristics, as well as complementary strengths and weaknesses. In this paper, we study these models to recognize the patterns of alphabet characters (A-Z) and numbers (0-9). To handle isolated pattern, generative model as Hidden Markov Model (HMM) and discriminative models like Conditional Random Field (CRF), Hidden Conditional Random Field (HCRF) and Latent-Dynamic Conditional Random Field (LDCRF) with different number of window size are applied on extracted pattern features. The gesture recognition rate is improved initially as the window size increase, but degrades as window size increase further. Experimental results show that the LDCRF is the best in terms of results than CRF, HCRF and HMM at window size equal 4. Additionally, our results show that; an overall recognition rates are 91.52%, 95.28%, 96.94% and 98.05% for CRF,
HCRF, HMM and LDCRF respectively.
Abstract: This paper introduces the foundations of Bayesian probability theory and Bayesian decision method. The main goal of Bayesian decision theory is to minimize the expected loss of a decision or minimize the expected risk. The purposes of this study are to review the decision process on the issue of flood occurrences and to suggest possible process for decision improvement. This study examines the problem structure of flood occurrences and theoretically explicates the decision-analytic approach based on Bayesian decision theory and application to flood occurrences in Environmental Engineering. In this study, we will discuss about the flood occurrences upon an annual maximum water level in cm, 43-year record available from 1965 to 2007 at the gauging station of Sagaing on the Ayeyarwady River with the drainage area - 120193 sq km by using Bayesian decision method. As a result, we will discuss the loss and risk of vast areas of agricultural land whether which will be inundated or not in the coming year based on the two standard maximum water levels during 43 years. And also we forecast about that lands will be safe from flood water during the next 10 years.
Abstract: We decribe a formal specification and verification of the Rabin public-key scheme in the formal proof system Is-abelle/HOL. The idea is to use the two views of cryptographic verification: the computational approach relying on the vocabulary of probability theory and complexity theory and the formal approach based on ideas and techniques from logic and programming languages. The analysis presented uses a given database to prove formal properties of our implemented functions with computer support. Thema in task in designing a practical formalization of correctness as well as security properties is to cope with the complexity of cryptographic proving. We reduce this complexity by exploring a light-weight formalization that enables both appropriate formal definitions as well as eficient formal proofs. This yields the first computer-proved implementation of the Rabin public-key scheme in Isabelle/HOL. Consequently, we get reliable proofs with a minimal error rate augmenting the used database. This provides a formal basis for more computer proof constructions in this area.
Abstract: Modern highly automated production systems faces
problems of reliability. Machine function reliability results in
changes of productivity rate and efficiency use of expensive
industrial facilities. Predicting of reliability has become an important
research and involves complex mathematical methods and
calculation. The reliability of high productivity technological
automatic machines that consists of complex mechanical, electrical
and electronic components is important. The failure of these units
results in major economic losses of production systems. The
reliability of transport and feeding systems for automatic
technological machines is also important, because failure of transport
leads to stops of technological machines. This paper presents
reliability engineering on the feeding system and its components for
transporting a complex shape parts to automatic machines. It also
discusses about the calculation of the reliability parameters of the
feeding unit by applying the probability theory. Equations produced
for calculating the limits of the geometrical sizes of feeders and the
probability of sticking the transported parts into the chute represents
the reliability of feeders as a function of its geometrical parameters.
Abstract: In this article, a formal specification and verification of the Rabin public-key scheme in a formal proof system is presented. The idea is to use the two views of cryptographic verification: the computational approach relying on the vocabulary of probability theory and complexity theory and the formal approach based on ideas and techniques from logic and programming languages. A major objective of this article is the presentation of the first computer-proved implementation of the Rabin public-key scheme in Isabelle/HOL. Moreover, we explicate a (computer-proven) formalization of correctness as well as a computer verification of security properties using a straight-forward computation model in Isabelle/HOL. The analysis uses a given database to prove formal properties of our implemented functions with computer support. The main task in designing a practical formalization of correctness as well as efficient computer proofs of security properties is to cope with the complexity of cryptographic proving. We reduce this complexity by exploring a light-weight formalization that enables both appropriate formal definitions as well as efficient formal proofs. Consequently, we get reliable proofs with a minimal error rate augmenting the used database, what provides a formal basis for more computer proof constructions in this area.
Abstract: The objective of global optimization is to find the
globally best solution of a model. Nonlinear models are ubiquitous
in many applications and their solution often requires a global
search approach; i.e. for a function f from a set A ⊂ Rn to
the real numbers, an element x0 ∈ A is sought-after, such that
∀ x ∈ A : f(x0) ≤ f(x). Depending on the field of application,
the question whether a found solution x0 is not only a local minimum
but a global one is very important.
This article presents a probabilistic approach to determine the
probability of a solution being a global minimum. The approach is
independent of the used global search method and only requires a
limited, convex parameter domain A as well as a Lipschitz continuous
function f whose Lipschitz constant is not needed to be known.
Abstract: Seemingly simple probabilities in the m-player game bingo have never been calculated. These probabilities include expected game length and the expected number of winners on a given turn. The difficulty in probabilistic analysis lies in the subtle interdependence among the m-many bingo game cards in play. In this paper, the game i got it!, a bingo variant, is considered. This variation provides enough weakening of the inter-player dependence to allow probabilistic analysis not possible for traditional bingo. The probability of winning in exactly k turns is calculated for a one-player game. Given a game of m-many players, the expected game length and tie probability are calculated. With these calculations, the game-s interesting payout scheme is considered.