Abstract: It is well known that the real estate price depends on a lot of factors. Each house current value is dependent on the location, room number, transportation, living convenience, year and surrounding environments. Although, there are different experienced models for housing agent to estimate the price, it is a case by case study without overall dynamic variation investigation. However, many economic parameters may more or less influence the real estate price variation. Here, the influences of most macroeconomic parameters on real estate price are investigated individually based on least-square scheme and grey correlation strategy. Then those parameters are classified into leading indices, simultaneous indices and laggard indices. In addition, the leading time period is evaluated based on least square method. The important leading and simultaneous indices can be used to establish an artificial intelligent neural network model for real estate price variation prediction. The real estate price variation of Taipei, Taiwan during 2005 ~ 2017 are chosen for this research data analysis and validation. The results show that the proposed method has reasonable prediction function for real estate business reference.
Abstract: Because of its flexibility, CES attracts much interest in economic growth and programming models, and the macroeconomics or micro-macro models. This paper focuses on the development, estimating methods of CES production function considering energy as an input. We leave for future research work of relaxing the assumption of constant returns to scale, the introduction of potential input factors, and the generalization method of the optimal nested form of multi-factor production functions.
Abstract: The rationalization of a gradual subsidies reforms plan has been set out by the Malaysian government to achieve the high-income nation target. This paper attempts to analyze the impacts of energy subsidy reform policy on fiscal deficit and macroeconomics variables in Malaysia. The Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model is employed. Three simulations based on different groups of scenarios have been developed. Importantly, the overall results indicate that removal of fuel subsidy has significantly improved the real GDP and reduced the government fiscal deficit. On the other hand, the removal of the fuel subsidy has increased most of the local commodity prices, especially energy commodities. The findings of the study could provide some imperative inputs for policy makers, especially to identify the right policy mechanism. This is especially ensures the subsidy savings from subsidy removal could be transferred back into the domestic economy in the form of infrastructure development, compensation and increases in others sector output contributions towards a sustainable economic growth.
Abstract: The housing industry is crucial for sustainable
development of every country. Housing is a basic need that can
enhance the quality of life. Owning a house is therefore the main aim
of individuals. However, affordability has become a critical issue
towards homeownership. In recent years, housing price in the main
cities has increased tremendously to unaffordable level. This paper
investigates factors influencing the housing price from developer’s
perspective and provides recommendation on strategies to tackle this
issue. Online and face-to-face survey was conducted on housing
developers operating in Penang, Malaysia. The results indicate that
(1) location; (2) macroeconomics factor; (3) demographic factors; (4)
land/zoning and; (5) industry factors are the main factors influencing
the housing price. This paper contributes towards better
understanding on developers’ view on how the housing price is
determined and form a basis for government to help tackle the
housing affordability issue.
Abstract: In this paper, we explore the macroeconomic effects
of the European Single Market on Austria by simulating the
McKibbin-Sachs Global Model. Global interdependences and the
impact of long-run effects on short-run adjustments are taken into
account. We study the sensitivity of the results with respect to
different assumptions concerning monetary and fiscal policies for the
countries and regions of the world economy. The consequences of
different assumptions about budgetary policies in Austria are also
investigated. The simulation results are contrasted with ex-post
evaluations of the actual impact of Austria’s membership in the
Single Market. As a result, it can be concluded that the Austrian
participation in the European Single Market entails considerable
long-run gains for the Austrian economy with nearly no adverse sideeffects
on any macroeconomic target variable.
Abstract: In this paper we apply an Adaptive Network-Based
Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) with one input, the dependent
variable with one lag, for the forecasting of four macroeconomic
variables of US economy, the Gross Domestic Product, the inflation
rate, six monthly treasury bills interest rates and unemployment rate.
We compare the forecasting performance of ANFIS with those of the
widely used linear autoregressive and nonlinear smoothing transition
autoregressive (STAR) models. The results are greatly in favour of
ANFIS indicating that is an effective tool for macroeconomic
forecasting used in academic research and in research and application
by the governmental and other institutions
Abstract: Data mining uses a variety of techniques each of which
is useful for some particular task. It is important to have a deep
understanding of each technique and be able to perform sophisticated
analysis. In this article we describe a tool built to simulate a variation
of the Kohonen network to perform unsupervised clustering and
support the entire data mining process up to results visualization. A
graphical representation helps the user to find out a strategy to
optimize classification by adding, moving or delete a neuron in order
to change the number of classes. The tool is able to automatically
suggest a strategy to optimize the number of classes optimization, but
also support both tree classifications and semi-lattice organizations of
the classes to give to the users the possibility of passing from one
class to the ones with which it has some aspects in common.
Examples of using tree and semi-lattice classifications are given to
illustrate advantages and problems. The tool is applied to classify
macroeconomic data that report the most developed countries- import
and export. It is possible to classify the countries based on their
economic behaviour and use the tool to characterize the commercial
behaviour of a country in a selected class from the analysis of
positive and negative features that contribute to classes formation.
Possible interrelationships between the classes and their meaning are
also discussed.
Abstract: Basel III (or the Third Basel Accord) is a global
regulatory standard on bank capital adequacy, stress testing and
market liquidity risk agreed upon by the members of the Basel
Committee on Banking Supervision in 2010-2011, and scheduled to
be introduced from 2013 until 2018. Basel III is a comprehensive set
of reform measures. These measures aim to; (1) improve the banking
sector-s ability to absorb shocks arising from financial and economic
stress, whatever the source, (2) improve risk management and
governance, (3) strengthen banks- transparency and disclosures.
Similarly the reform target; (1) bank level or micro-prudential,
regulation, which will help raise the resilience of individual banking
institutions to periods of stress. (2) Macro-prudential regulations,
system wide risk that can build up across the banking sector as well
as the pro-cyclical implication of these risks over time. These two
approaches to supervision are complementary as greater resilience at
the individual bank level reduces the risk system wide shocks.
Macroeconomic impact of Basel III; OECD estimates that the
medium-term impact of Basel III implementation on GDP growth is
in the range -0,05 percent to -0,15 percent per year. On the other hand
economic output is mainly affected by an increase in bank lending
spreads as banks pass a rise in banking funding costs, due to higher
capital requirements, to their customers. Consequently the estimated
effects on GDP growth assume no active response from monetary
policy. Basel III impact on economic output could be offset by a
reduction (or delayed increase) in monetary policy rates by about 30
to 80 basis points. The aim of this paper is to create a framework
based on the recent regulations in order to prevent financial crises.
Thus the need to overcome the global financial crisis will contribute
to financial crises that may occur in the future periods. In the first
part of the paper, the effects of the global crisis on the banking
system examine the concept of financial regulations. In the second
part; especially in the financial regulations and Basel III are analyzed.
The last section in this paper explored the possible consequences of
the macroeconomic impacts of Basel III.
Abstract: This paper shows that the economy of any country
can be presented as three different shells such as: economic shell of a
big, a medium and a small business. The new concepts were
introduced such as: volume of an economic shell, coefficient of
shell-s expansion (compression) etc. These shells can expansion or
compress under action by internal or external powers and when shell
expansions - it means the rising of a business activity and
compression shows us that economy goes on recession. This process
of an expansion or a compression can develop in the various ways
like linear, logarithm or any other mathematical laws.
Abstract: This paper develops the fiscal health index of 21 local
governments in Taiwan over the 1984 to 2010 period. A quantile
regression analysis was used to explore the extent that economic
variables, political budget cycles, and legislative checks and balances,
impact different quantiles of fiscal health index for a country over a
sample period of time. Our findings suggest that local governments at
the lower quantile are significantly benefited from political budget
cycles and the increase in central government revenues, while
legislative effective checks and balances and the increase in central
government expenditures have a significantly negative effect on local
fiscal health. When local governments are in the upper tail of the
distribution, legislative checks and balances and growth in
macroeconomics have significant and adverse effects on the fiscal
health of local governments. However, increases in central
government revenues have significant and positive effects on the
health status of local government in Taiwan.
Abstract: Data mining uses a variety of techniques each of which is useful for some particular task. It is important to have a deep understanding of each technique and be able to perform sophisticated analysis. In this article we describe a tool built to simulate a variation of the Kohonen network to perform unsupervised clustering and support the entire data mining process up to results visualization. A graphical representation helps the user to find out a strategy to optmize classification by adding, moving or delete a neuron in order to change the number of classes. The tool is also able to automatically suggest a strategy for number of classes optimization.The tool is used to classify macroeconomic data that report the most developed countries? import and export. It is possible to classify the countries based on their economic behaviour and use an ad hoc tool to characterize the commercial behaviour of a country in a selected class from the analysis of positive and negative features that contribute to classes formation.
Abstract: There are little subjects in macroeconomics that are so
widely discussed, but at the same time controversial and without a
clear solution such as the choice of exchange rate regime. National
authorities need to take into consideration numerous fundamentals,
trying to fulfil goals of economic growth, low and stable inflation
and international stability. This paper focuses on the countries of ex-
Yugoslavia and their exchange rate history as independent states. We
follow the development of the regimes in 6 countries during the
transition through the financial crisis of the second part of the 2000s
to the prospects of their final goal: full membership in the European
Union. Main question is to what extent has the exchange regime
contributed to their economic success, considering other objective
factors.