Abstract: The incubation period is defined as the time from infection with a microorganism to development of symptoms. In this research, two disease models: one with incubation period and another without incubation period were studied. The study involves the use of a mathematical model with a single incubation period. The test for the existence and stability of the disease free and the endemic equilibrium states for both models were carried out. The fourth order Runge-Kutta method was used to solve both models numerically. Finally, a computer program in MATLAB was developed to run the numerical experiments. From the results, we are able to show that the endemic equilibrium state of the model with incubation period is locally asymptotically stable whereas the endemic equilibrium state of the model without incubation period is unstable under certain conditions on the given model parameters. It was also established that the disease free equilibrium states of the model with and without incubation period are locally asymptotically stable. Furthermore, results from numerical experiments using empirical data obtained from Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) showed that the overall population of the infected people for the model with incubation period is higher than that without incubation period. We also established from the results obtained that as the transmission rate from susceptible to infected population increases, the peak values of the infected population for the model with incubation period decrease and are always less than those for the model without incubation period.
Abstract: Water suspensions of in-organic (metals and oxides)
and organic nano-objects (chitozan and collagen) were subjected to
the treatment of direct and alternative electrical fields. In addition to
quasi-periodical spatial patterning resonance-like performance of
spatial distributions of these suspensions has been found at low
frequencies of alternating electrical field. These resonances are
explained as the result of creation of equilibrium states of groups of
charged nano-objects with opposite signs of charges at the interparticle
distances where the forces of Coulomb attraction are
compensated by the repulsion forces induced by relatively negative
polarization of hydrated regions surrounding the nanoparticles with
respect to pure water. The low frequencies of these resonances are
explained by comparatively big distances between the particles and
their big masses with t\respect to masses of atoms constituting
molecules with high resonance frequencies. These new resonances
open a new approach to detailed modeling and understanding of
mechanisms of the influence of electrical fields on the functioning of
internal organs of living organisms at the level of cells and neurons.
Abstract: Cholera is a disease that is predominately common in
developing countries due to poor sanitation and overcrowding
population. In this paper, a deterministic model for the dynamics of
cholera is developed and control measures such as health educational
message, therapeutic treatment, and vaccination are incorporated in
the model. The effective reproduction number is computed in terms
of the model parameters. The existence and stability of the
equilibrium states, disease free and endemic equilibrium states are
established and showed to be locally and globally asymptotically
stable when R0 < 1 and R0 > 1 respectively. The existence of
backward bifurcation of the model is investigated. Furthermore,
numerical simulation of the model developed is carried out to show
the impact of the control measures and the result indicates that
combined control measures will help to reduce the spread of cholera
in the population.
Abstract: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a leading cause of
infectious mortality. It is primarily transmitted by the respiratory
route, individuals with active disease may infect others through
airborne particles which releases when they cough, talk, or sing and
subsequently inhale by others. In order to study the effect of the
Bacilli Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccine after vaccination of TB
patient, a Vaccinated Susceptible Infected and Recovered (VSIR)
mathematical model is being developed to achieve the desired
objectives. The mathematical model, so developed, shall be used to
quantify the effect of BCG Vaccine to protect the immigrant young
adult person. Moreover, equations are to be established for the
disease endemic and free equilibrium states and subsequently utilized
in disease stability analysis. The stability analysis will give a
complete picture of disease annihilation from the total population if
the total removal rate from the infectious group should be greater
than total number of dormant infections produced throughout
infectious period.
Abstract: We used mathematical model to study the
transmission of dengue disease. The model is developed in which
the human population is separated into two populations, pregnant and
non-pregnant humans. The dynamical analysis method is used for
analyzing this modified model. Two equilibrium states are found and
the conditions for stability of theses two equilibrium states are
established. Numerical results are shown for each equilibrium state.
The basic reproduction numbers are found and they are compared by
using numerical simulations.
Abstract: An important technique in stability theory for
differential equations is known as the direct method of Lyapunov. In
this work we deal global stability properties of Leptospirosis
transmission model by age group in Thailand. First we consider the
data from Division of Epidemiology Ministry of Public Health,
Thailand between 1997-2011. Then we construct the mathematical
model for leptospirosis transmission by eight age groups. The
Lyapunov functions are used for our model which takes the forms of
an Ordinary Differential Equation system. The globally
asymptotically for equilibrium states are analyzed.
Abstract: Mathematical models can be used to describe the
dynamics of the spread of infectious disease between susceptibles
and infectious populations. Dengue fever is a re-emerging disease in
the tropical and subtropical regions of the world. Its incidence has
increased fourfold since 1970 and outbreaks are now reported quite
frequently from many parts of the world. In dengue endemic regions,
more cases of dengue infection in pregnancy and infancy are being
found due to the increasing incidence. It has been reported that
dengue infection was vertically transmitted to the infants. Primary
dengue infection is associated with mild to high fever, headache,
muscle pain and skin rash. Immune response includes IgM antibodies
produced by the 5th day of symptoms and persist for 30-60 days. IgG
antibodies appear on the 14th day and persist for life. Secondary
infections often result in high fever and in many cases with
hemorrhagic events and circulatory failure. In the present paper, a
mathematical model is proposed to simulate the succession of dengue
disease transmission in pregnancy and infancy. Stability analysis of
the equilibrium points is carried out and a simulation is given for the
different sets of parameter. Moreover, the bifurcation diagrams of our
model are discussed. The controlling of this disease in infant cases is
introduced in the term of the threshold condition.
Abstract: A well balanced numerical scheme based on
stationary waves for shallow water flows with arbitrary topography
has been introduced by Thanh et al. [18]. The scheme was
constructed so that it maintains equilibrium states and tests indicate
that it is stable and fast. Applying the well-balanced scheme for the
one-dimensional shallow water equations, we study the early shock
waves propagation towards the Phuket coast in Southern Thailand
during a hypothetical tsunami. The initial tsunami wave is generated
in the deep ocean with the strength that of Indonesian tsunami of
2004.
Abstract: Plasmodium vivax malaria differs from P. falciparum malaria in that a person suffering from P. vivax infection can suffer relapses of the disease. This is due the parasite being able to remain dormant in the liver of the patients where it is able to re-infect the patient after a passage of time. During this stage, the patient is classified as being in the dormant class. The model to describe the transmission of P. vivax malaria consists of a human population divided into four classes, the susceptible, the infected, the dormant and the recovered. The effect of a time delay on the transmission of this disease is studied. The time delay is the period in which the P. vivax parasite develops inside the mosquito (vector) before the vector becomes infectious (i.e., pass on the infection). We analyze our model by using standard dynamic modeling method. Two stable equilibrium states, a disease free state E0 and an endemic state E1, are found to be possible. It is found that the E0 state is stable when a newly defined basic reproduction number G is less than one. If G is greater than one the endemic state E1 is stable. The conditions for the endemic equilibrium state E1 to be a stable spiral node are established. For realistic values of the parameters in the model, it is found that solutions in phase space are trajectories spiraling into the endemic state. It is shown that the limit cycle and chaotic behaviors can only be achieved with unrealistic parameter values.
Abstract: The most Malaria cases are occur along Thai-Mynmar border. Mathematical model for the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria in a mixed population of Thais and migrant Burmese living along the Thai-Myanmar Border is studied. The population is separated into two groups, Thai and Burmese. Each population is divided into susceptible, infected, dormant and recovered subclasses. The loss of immunity by individuals in the infected class causes them to move back into the susceptible class. The person who is infected with Plasmodium vivax and is a member of the dormant class can relapse back into the infected class. A standard dynamical method is used to analyze the behaviors of the model. Two stable equilibrium states, a disease-free state and an epidemic state, are found to be possible in each population. A disease-free equilibrium state in the Thai population occurs when there are no infected Burmese entering the community. When infected Burmese enter the Thai community, an epidemic state can occur. It is found that the disease-free state is stable when the threshold number is less than one. The epidemic state is stable when a second threshold number is greater than one. Numerical simulations are used to confirm the results of our model.