Abstract: In general, classical methods such as maximum
likelihood (ML) and least squares (LS) estimation methods are used
to estimate the shape parameters of the Burr XII distribution.
However, these estimators are very sensitive to the outliers. To
overcome this problem we propose alternative robust estimators
based on the M-estimation method for the shape parameters of the
Burr XII distribution. We provide a small simulation study and a real
data example to illustrate the performance of the proposed estimators
over the ML and the LS estimators. The simulation results show that
the proposed robust estimators generally outperform the classical
estimators in terms of bias and root mean square errors when there
are outliers in data.
Abstract: The Markov decision process (MDP) based
methodology is implemented in order to establish the optimal
schedule which minimizes the cost. Formulation of MDP problem
is presented using the information about the current state of pipe,
improvement cost, failure cost and pipe deterioration model. The
objective function and detailed algorithm of dynamic programming
(DP) are modified due to the difficulty of implementing the
conventional DP approaches. The optimal schedule derived from
suggested model is compared to several policies via Monte
Carlo simulation. Validity of the solution and improvement in
computational time are proved.
Abstract: This paper examines how “Zakat” provides fair
income redistribution and aids the struggle against poverty. Providing
fair income redistribution and combating poverty constitutes some of
the fundamental tasks performed by countries all over the world.
Each country seeks a solution for these problems according to their
political, economic and administrative styles through applying
various economic and financial policies. The same situation can be
handled via “zakat” association in Islam. Nowadays, we observe
different versions of “zakat” in developed countries. Applications
such as negative income tax denote merely a different form of
“zakat” that is being applied almost in the same way but under
changed names. However, the minimum values to donate under zakat
(e.g. 85 gr. gold and 40 animals) get altered and various amounts are
put into practice. It might be named as negative income tax instead of
zakat, nonetheless, these applications are based on the Holy Koran
and the hadith released 1400 years ago. Besides, considering the
savage and slavery in the world at those times, we might easily
recognize the true value of the zakat being applied for the first time
then in the Islamic system. Through zakat, governments are able to
transfer incomes to the poor as a means of enabling them achieve the
minimum standard of living required. With regards to who benefits
from the Zakat, an objective and fair criteria was used to determine
who benefits from the zakat contrary to the notion that it was based
on peoples’ own choices. Since the zakat is obligatory, the transfers
do not get forwarded directly but via the government and get
distributed, which requires vast governmental organizations. Through
the application of Zakat, reduced levels of poverty can be achieved
and also ensure the fair income redistribution.
Abstract: Fiber Bragg optic sensor is embedded in composite
material to detect and monitor the damage that occurs in composite
structures. In this paper, we deal with the mode-Ι delamination to
determine the material strength to crack propagation, using the
coupling mode theory and T-matrix method to simulate the FBGs
spectrum for both uniform and non-uniform strain distribution. The
double cantilever beam test is modeled in FEM to determine the
longitudinal strain. Two models are implemented, the first is the
global half model, and the second is the sub-model to represent the
FBGs with higher refined mesh. This method can simulate damage in
composite structures and converting strain to a wavelength shifting in
the FBG spectrum.
Abstract: In this paper, we considered and applied parametric
modeling for some experimental data of dynamical system. In this
study, we investigated the different distribution of output
measurement from some dynamical systems. Also, with variance
processing in experimental data we obtained the region of
nonlinearity in experimental data and then identification of output
section is applied in different situation and data distribution. Finally,
the effect of the spanning the measurement such as variance to
identification and limitation of this approach is explained.
Abstract: This paper presents a novel statistical description of
the counterpoise effective length due to lightning surges, where the
(impulse) effective length had been obtained by means of regressive
formulas applied to the transient simulation results. The effective
length is described in terms of a statistical distribution function, from
which median, mean, variance, and other parameters of interest could
be readily obtained. The influence of lightning current amplitude,
lightning front duration, and soil resistivity on the effective length has
been accounted for, assuming statistical nature of these parameters. A
method for determining the optimal counterpoise length, in terms of
the statistical impulse effective length, is also presented. It is based on
estimating the number of dangerous events associated with lightning
strikes. Proposed statistical description and the associated method
provide valuable information which could aid the design engineer in
optimising physical lengths of counterpoises in different grounding
arrangements and soil resistivity situations.
Abstract: Rotary draw bending is a method which is being used
in tube forming. In the tube bending process, the neutral axis moves
towards the inner arc and the wall thickness distribution changes for
tube’s cross section. Thinning takes place in the outer arc of the tube
(extrados) due to the stretching of the material, whereas thickening
occurs in the inner arc of the tube (intrados) due to the comparison of
the material. The calculations of the wall thickness distribution,
neutral axis shifting, and strain distribution have not been accurate
enough, so far. The previous model (the geometrical model)
describes the neutral axis shifting and wall thickness distribution. The
geometrical of the tube, bending radius and bending angle are
considered in the geometrical model, while the influence of the
material properties of the tube forming are ignored. The advanced
model is a modification of the previous model using material
properties that depends on the correction factor. The correction factor
is a purely empirically determined factor. The advanced model was
compared with the Finite element simulation (FE simulation) using a
different bending factor (Bf =bending radius/ diameter of the tube),
wall thickness (Wf = diameter of the tube/ wall thickness), and
material properties (strain hardening exponent). Finite element model
of rotary draw bending has been performed in PAM-TUBE program
(version: 2012). Results from the advanced model resemble the FE
simulation and the experimental test.
Abstract: The thermal conductivity of a fluid can be
significantly enhanced by dispersing nano-sized particles in it, and
the resultant fluid is termed as "nanofluid". A theoretical model for
estimating the thermal conductivity of a nanofluid has been proposed
here. It is based on the mechanism that evenly dispersed
nanoparticles within a nanofluid undergo Brownian motion in course
of which the nanoparticles repeatedly collide with the heat source.
During each collision a rapid heat transfer occurs owing to the solidsolid
contact. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulation of the collision
of nanoparticles with the heat source has shown that there is a pulselike
pick up of heat by the nanoparticles within 20-100 ps, the extent
of which depends not only on thermal conductivity of the
nanoparticles, but also on the elastic and other physical properties of
the nanoparticle. After the collision the nanoparticles undergo
Brownian motion in the base fluid and release the excess heat to the
surrounding base fluid within 2-10 ms. The Brownian motion and
associated temperature variation of the nanoparticles have been
modeled by stochastic analysis. Repeated occurrence of these events
by the suspended nanoparticles significantly contributes to the
characteristic thermal conductivity of the nanofluids, which has been
estimated by the present model for a ethylene glycol based nanofluid
containing Cu-nanoparticles of size ranging from 8 to 20 nm, with
Gaussian size distribution. The prediction of the present model has
shown a reasonable agreement with the experimental data available
in literature.
Abstract: Different services based on different switching
techniques in wireless networks leads to drastic changes in the
properties of network traffic. Because of these diversities in services,
network traffic is expected to undergo qualitative and quantitative
variations. Hence, assumption of traffic characteristics and the
prediction of network events become more complex for the wireless
networks. In this paper, the traffic characteristics have been studied
by collecting traces from the mobile switching centre (MSC). The
traces include initiation and termination time, originating node, home
station id, foreign station id. Traffic parameters namely, call interarrival
and holding times were estimated statistically. The results
show that call inter-arrival and distribution time in this wireless
network is heavy-tailed and follow gamma distributions. They are
asymptotically long-range dependent. It is also found that the call
holding times are best fitted with lognormal distribution. Based on
these observations, an analytical model for performance estimation is
also proposed.
Abstract: Natural gas, as one of the most important sources of
energy for many of the industrial and domestic users all over the
world, has a complex, huge supply chain which is in need of heavy
investments in all the phases of exploration, extraction, production,
transportation, storage and distribution. The main purpose of supply
chain is to meet customers’ need efficiently and with minimum cost.
In this study, with the aim of minimizing economic costs, different
levels of natural gas supply chain in the form of a multi-echelon,
multi-period fuzzy linear programming have been modeled. In this
model, different constraints including constraints on demand
satisfaction, capacity, input/output balance and presence/absence of a
path have been defined. The obtained results suggest efficiency of the
recommended model in optimal allocation and reduction of supply
chain costs.
Abstract: In this paper the effect of wall waviness of side walls
in a two-dimensional wavy enclosure is numerically investigated.
Two vertical wavy walls and straight top wall are kept isothermal and
the bottom wall temperature is higher and spatially varying with
cosinusoidal temperature distribution. A computational code based on
Finite-volume approach is used to solve governing equations and
SIMPLE method is used for pressure velocity coupling. Test is
performed for several different numbers of undulations. The Prandtl
number was kept constant and the Ra number denotes that the flow is
laminar. Temperature and velocity fields are determined. Therefore,
according to the obtained results a correlation is proposed for average
Nusselt number as a function of number of side wall waves. The
results indicate that the Nusselt number is highly affected by number
of waves and increasing it decreases the wavy walls Nusselt number;
although the Nusselt number is not highly affected by surface
waviness when the number of undulations is below one.
Abstract: Two types of commercial cylindrical lithium ion
batteries (Panasonic 3.4 Ah NCR-18650B and Samsung 2.9 Ah
INR-18650), were investigated experimentally. The capacities of these
samples were individually measured using constant current-constant
voltage (CC-CV) method at different ambient temperatures (-10°C,
0°C, 25°C). Their internal resistance was determined by
electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) and pulse discharge
methods. The cells with different configurations of parallel connection
NCR-NCR, INR-INR and NCR-INR were charged/discharged at the
aforementioned ambient temperatures. The results showed that the
difference of internal resistance between cells much more evident at
low temperatures. Furthermore, the parallel connection of NCR-NCR
exhibits the most uniform temperature distribution in cells at -10°C,
this feature is quite favorable for the safety of the battery pack.
Abstract: The work proposes a decision support methodology
for the credit risk minimization in selection of investment projects.
The methodology provides two stages of projects’ evaluation.
Preliminary selection of projects with minor credit risks is made
using the Expertons Method. The second stage makes ranking of
chosen projects using the Possibilistic Discrimination Analysis
Method. The latter is a new modification of a well-known Method of
Fuzzy Discrimination Analysis.
Abstract: A continuous time model of the interaction between
crop insect pests and naturally beneficial pest enemies is created
using a set of simultaneous, non-linear, ordinary differential
equations incorporating natural death rates based on the Weibull
distribution. The crop pest is present in all its life-cycle stages of:
egg, larva, pupa and adult. The beneficial insects, parasitoid wasps,
may be present in either or all parasitized: eggs, larva and pupa.
Population modelling is used to estimate the quantity of the natural
pest enemies that should be introduced into the pest infested
environment to suppress the pest population density to an
economically acceptable level within a prescribed number of days.
The results obtained illustrate the effect of different combinations of
parasitoid wasps, using the Pascal distribution to estimate their
success in parasitizing different pest developmental stages, to deliver
pest control to a sustainable level. Effective control, within a
prescribed number of days, is established by the deployment of two
or all three species of wasps, which partially destroy pest: egg, larvae
and pupae stages. The selected scenarios demonstrate effective
sustainable control of the pest in less than thirty days.
Abstract: Overbooking is an approach of selling more goods or services than available capacities because sellers anticipate that some buyers will not show-up or may cancel their bookings. At present, many airlines deploy overbooking strategy in order to deal with the uncertainty of their customers. Particularly, some airlines sell more cargo capacity than what they have available to freight forwarders with beliefs that some of them will cancel later. In this paper, we propose methods to find the optimal overbooking level of volume and weight for air cargo in order to minimize the total cost, containing cost of spoilage and cost of offloaded. Cancellations of volume and weight are jointly random variables with a known joint distribution. Heuristic approaches applying the idea of weight and volume independency is considered to find an appropriate answer to the full problem. Computational experiments are used to explore the performance of approaches presented in this paper, as compared to a naïve method under different scenarios.
Abstract: Generally, the traditional Shewhart p chart has been developed by for charting the binomial data. This chart has been developed using the normal approximation with condition as low defect level and the small to moderate sample size. In real applications, however, are away from these assumptions due to skewness in the exact distribution. In this paper, a modified Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) control chat for detecting a change in binomial data by improving square root transformations, namely ISRT p EWMA control chart. The numerical results show that ISRT p EWMA chart is superior to ISRT p chart for small to moderate shifts, otherwise, the latter is better for large shifts.
Abstract: Today, the need for water sources is swiftly increasing due to population growth. At the same time, it is known that some regions will face with shortage of water and drought because of the global warming and climate change. In this context, evaluation and analysis of hydrological data such as the observed trends, drought and flood prediction of short term flow has great deal of importance. The most accurate selection probability distribution is important to describe the low flow statistics for the studies related to drought analysis. As in many basins In Turkey, Gediz River basin will be affected enough by the drought and will decrease the amount of used water. The aim of this study is to derive appropriate probability distributions for frequency analysis of annual minimum flows at 6 gauging stations of the Gediz Basin. After applying 10 different probability distributions, six different parameter estimation methods and 3 fitness test, the Pearson 3 distribution and general extreme values distributions were found to give optimal results.
Abstract: This paper presents a nonparametric method to obtain the hazard rate “Bathtub curve” for power system components. The model is a mixture of the three known phases of a component life, the decreasing failure rate (DFR), the constant failure rate (CFR) and the increasing failure rate (IFR) represented by three parametric Weibull models. The parameters are obtained from a simultaneous fitting process of the model to the Kernel nonparametric hazard rate curve. From the Weibull parameters and failure rate curves the useful lifetime and the characteristic lifetime were defined. To demonstrate the model the historic time-to-failure of distribution transformers were used as an example. The resulted “Bathtub curve” shows the failure rate for the equipment lifetime which can be applied in economic and replacement decision models.
Abstract: This paper introduces a new generalization of the two parameter Weibull distribution. To this end, the quadratic rank transmutation map has been used. This new distribution is named exponentiated transmuted Weibull (ETW) distribution. The ETW distribution has the advantage of being capable of modeling various shapes of aging and failure criteria. Furthermore, eleven lifetime distributions such as the Weibull, exponentiated Weibull, Rayleigh and exponential distributions, among others follow as special cases. The properties of the new model are discussed and the maximum likelihood estimation is used to estimate the parameters. Explicit expressions are derived for the quantiles. The moments of the distribution are derived, and the order statistics are examined.
Abstract: We consider fluctuations of defects density taking into account their interaction. Stochastic field of displacement generation rate gives random defect distribution. We determinate statistical characteristics (mean and dispersion) of random field of point defect distribution as function of defect generation parameters, temperature and properties of irradiated crystal.