Abstract: The objective of countercyclical capital buffer is to
encourage banks to build up buffers in good times that can be drawn
down in bad times. The aim of the report is to assess such decisions
by banks derived from three approaches. The approaches are the
aggregate credit-to-GDP ratio, credit growth as well as banking
sector profits. The approaches are implemented for Estonia, Latvia
and Lithuania for the time period 2000-2012. The report compares
three approaches and analyses their relevance to the Baltic States by
testing the correlation between a growth in studied variables and a
growth of corresponding gaps. Methods used in the empirical part of
the report are econometric analysis as well as economic analysis,
development indicators, relative and absolute indicators and other
methods. The research outcome is a cross-Baltic comparison of two
alternative approaches to establish or release a countercyclical capital
buffer by banks and their implications for each Baltic country.
Abstract: While the form of crises may change, their essence
remains the same (such as a cycle of abundant liquidity, rapid credit
growth, and a low-inflation environment followed by an asset-price
bubble). The current market turbulence began in mid-2000s when the
US economy shifted to imbalanced both internal and external
macroeconomic positions. We see two key causes of these problems
– loose US monetary policy in early 2000s and US government
guarantees issued on the securities by government-sponsored
enterprises what was further fueled by financial innovations such as
structured credit products. We have discovered both negative and
positive lessons deriving from this crisis and divided the negative
lessons into three groups: financial products and valuation, processes
and business models, and strategic issues. Moreover, we address key
risk management lessons and exit strategies derived from the current
crisis and recommend policies that should help diminish the negative
impact of future potential crises.