Abstract: When long-term changes in normal weather patterns happen in a certain area, it generally could be identified as climate change. Concentration of principal's greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane, ozone, and water vapor will cause climate change and perhaps climate variability. Main climate factors are temperature, precipitation, air pressure, and humidity. Extreme events may be the result of the changing of carbon dioxide concentration levels in the atmosphere which cause a change in temperature. Extreme events in some ways will affect the productivity of crop and dairy livestock. In this research, the correlation of milk production and temperature as the main climate factor in ChaharMahal and Bakhtiari province in Iran has been considered. The methodology employed for this study consists, collect reports and published national and provincial data, available recorded data on climate factors and analyzing collected data using statistical software. Milk production in ChaharMahal and Bakhtiari province is in the same pattern as national milk production in Iran. According to the current study results, there is a significant negative correlation between milk production in ChaharMahal and Bakhtiari provinces and temperature as the main climate change factor.
Abstract: This paper aimed to establish econometrical equation models for the Nile delta region in Egypt, which will represent a basement for future predictions of Lumpy skin disease outbreaks and its pathway in relation to climate change. Data of lumpy skin disease (LSD) outbreaks were collected from the cattle farms located in the provinces representing the Nile delta region during 1 January, 2015 to December, 2015. The obtained results indicated that there was a significant association between the degree of the LSD outbreaks and the investigated climate factors (temperature, wind speed, and humidity) and the outbreaks peaked during the months of June, July, and August and gradually decreased to the lowest rate in January, February, and December. The model obtained depicted that the increment of these climate factors were associated with evidently increment on LSD outbreaks on the Nile Delta of Egypt. The model validation process was done by the root mean square error (RMSE) and means bias (MB) which compared the number of LSD outbreaks expected with the number of observed outbreaks and estimated the confidence level of the model. The value of RMSE was 1.38% and MB was 99.50% confirming that this established model described the current association between the LSD outbreaks and the change on climate factors and also can be used as a base for predicting the of LSD outbreaks depending on the climatic change on the future.
Abstract: Dengue fever is prevalent in Malaysia with numerous
cases including mortality recorded over the years. Public education
on the prevention of the desease through various means has been
carried out besides the enforcement of legal means to eradicate
Aedes mosquitoes, the dengue vector breeding ground. Hence, other
means need to be explored, such as predicting the seasonal peak
period of the dengue outbreak and identifying related climate factors
contributing to the increase in the number of mosquitoes. Simulation
model can be employed for this purpose. In this study, we created a
simulation of system dynamic to predict the spread of dengue
outbreak in Hulu Langat, Selangor Malaysia. The prototype was
developed using STELLA 9.1.2 software. The main data input are
rainfall, temperature and denggue cases. Data analysis from the graph
showed that denggue cases can be predicted accurately using these
two main variables- rainfall and temperature. However, the model
will be further tested over a longer time period to ensure its
accuracy, reliability and efficiency as a prediction tool for dengue
outbreak.
Abstract: Using 1km grid datasets representing monthly mean
precipitation, monthly mean temperature, and dry matter production
(DMP), we considered the regional plant production ability in
Southeast and South Asia, and also employed pixel-by-pixel
correlation analysis to assess the intensity of relation between climate
factors and plant production. While annual DMP in South Asia was
approximately less than 2,000kg, the one in most part of Southeast
Asia exceeded 2,500 - 3,000kg. It suggested that plant production in
Southeast Asia was superior to South Asia, however, Rain-Use
Efficiency (RUE) representing dry matter production per 1mm
precipitation showed that inland of Indochina Peninsula and India
were higher than islands in Southeast Asia. By the results of
correlation analysis between climate factors and DMP, while the area
in most parts of Indochina Peninsula indicated negative correlation
coefficients between DMP and precipitation or temperature, the area
in Malay Peninsula and islands showed negative correlation to
precipitation and positive one to temperature, and most part of India
dominating South Asia showed positive to precipitation and negative
to temperature. In addition, the areas where the correlation coefficients
exceeded |0.8| were regarded as “susceptible" to climate factors, and
the areas smaller than |0.2| were “insusceptible". By following the
discrimination, the map implying expected impacts by climate change
was provided.
Abstract: Based on a long-term vegetation index dataset of NDVI and meteorological data from 68 meteorological stations in the Qinghai-Tibet plateau and their relations with major climate factors were analyzed. The results show the following: 1) The linear trends of temperature in the Qinghai-Tibet plateau indicate that the temperature in the plateau generally increased, but it rose faster in the last 20 years. 2) The most significant NDVI increase occurred in the eastern and southern plateau. However, the western and northern plateau demonstrate a decreasing trend. 3) There is a significant positive linear correlation between NDVI and temperature and a negative correlation between NDVI and mean wind speed. However, no significant statistical relationship was found between NDVI and relative humidity, precipitation or sunshine duration.4) The changes in NDVI for the plateau are driven by temperature-precipitation, but for the desert and forest areas, the relation changes to precipitation-temperature-wind velocity and wind velocity-temperature-precipitation.