Abstract: Financial forecasting using machine learning techniques has received great efforts in the last decide . In this ongoing work, we show how machine learning of graphical models will be able to infer a visualized causal interactions between different banks in the Saudi equities market. One important discovery from such learned causal graphs is how companies influence each other and to what extend. In this work, a set of graphical models named Gaussian graphical models with developed ensemble penalized feature selection methods that combine ; filtering method, wrapper method and a regularizer will be shown. A comparison between these different developed ensemble combinations will also be shown. The best ensemble method will be used to infer the causal relationships between banks in Saudi equities market.
Abstract: Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) is a causal graph, which shows the relations between essential components in complex systems. Experts who are familiar with the system components and their relations can generate a related FCM. There is a big gap when human experts cannot produce FCM or even there is no expert to produce the related FCM. Therefore, a new mechanism must be used to bridge this gap. In this paper, a novel learning method is proposed to construct causal graph based on historical data and by using metaheuristic such Tabu Search (TS). The efficiency of the proposed method is shown via comparison of its results of some numerical examples with those of some other methods.
Abstract: This paper discusses the causal explanation capability
of QRIOM, a tool aimed at supporting learning of organic chemistry
reactions. The development of the tool is based on the hybrid use of
Qualitative Reasoning (QR) technique and Qualitative Process
Theory (QPT) ontology. Our simulation combines symbolic,
qualitative description of relations with quantity analysis to generate
causal graphs. The pedagogy embedded in the simulator is to both
simulate and explain organic reactions. Qualitative reasoning through
a causal chain will be presented to explain the overall changes made
on the substrate; from initial substrate until the production of final
outputs. Several uses of the QPT modeling constructs in supporting
behavioral and causal explanation during run-time will also be
demonstrated. Explaining organic reactions through causal graph
trace can help improve the reasoning ability of learners in that their
conceptual understanding of the subject is nurtured.