Abstract: Overall cost is a significant consideration in any
decision-making process. Although many studies were carried out on
overall cost in construction, little has treated the uncertainties of real
life cycle development. On the basis of several case studies, a
feedback process was performed on the historical data of studied
buildings. This process enabled to identify some factors causing
uncertainty during the operational period. As a result, the research
proposes a new method for assessing the overall cost during a part of
the building-s life cycle taking account of the building actual value,
its end-of-life value and the influence of the identified life cycle
uncertainty factors. The findings are a step towards a higher level of
reliability in overall cost evaluation taking account of some usually
unexpected uncertainty factors.
Abstract: In conventional reliability assessment, the reliability data of system components are treated as crisp values. The collected data have some uncertainties due to errors by human beings/machines or any other sources. These uncertainty factors will limit the understanding of system component failure due to the reason of incomplete data. In these situations, we need to generalize classical methods to fuzzy environment for studying and analyzing the systems of interest. Fuzzy set theory has been proposed to handle such vagueness by generalizing the notion of membership in a set. Essentially, in a Fuzzy Set (FS) each element is associated with a point-value selected from the unit interval [0, 1], which is termed as the grade of membership in the set. A Vague Set (VS), as well as an Intuitionistic Fuzzy Set (IFS), is a further generalization of an FS. Instead of using point-based membership as in FS, interval-based membership is used in VS. The interval-based membership in VS is more expressive in capturing vagueness of data. In the present paper, vague set theory coupled with conventional Lambda-Tau method is presented for reliability analysis of repairable systems. The methodology uses Petri nets (PN) to model the system instead of fault tree because it allows efficient simultaneous generation of minimal cuts and path sets. The presented method is illustrated with the press unit of the paper mill.
Abstract: Property investment in the real estate industry has a
high risk due to the uncertainty factors that will affect the decisions
made and high cost. Analytic hierarchy process has existed for some
time in which referred to an expert-s opinion to measure the
uncertainty of the risk factors for the risk analysis. Therefore,
different level of experts- experiences will create different opinion
and lead to the conflict among the experts in the field. The objective
of this paper is to propose a new technique to measure the uncertainty
of the risk factors based on multidimensional data model and data
mining techniques as deterministic approach. The propose technique
consist of a basic framework which includes four modules: user,
technology, end-user access tools and applications. The property
investment risk analysis defines as a micro level analysis as the
features of the property will be considered in the analysis in this
paper.