Abstract: This aims of this paper is to forecast the electricity spot prices. First, we focus on modeling the conditional mean of the series so we adopt a generalized fractional -factor Gegenbauer process (k-factor GARMA). Secondly, the residual from the -factor GARMA model has used as a proxy for the conditional variance; these residuals were predicted using two different approaches. In the first approach, a local linear wavelet neural network model (LLWNN) has developed to predict the conditional variance using the Back Propagation learning algorithms. In the second approach, the Gegenbauer generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity process (G-GARCH) has adopted, and the parameters of the k-factor GARMA-G-GARCH model has estimated using the wavelet methodology based on the discrete wavelet packet transform (DWPT) approach. The empirical results have shown that the k-factor GARMA-G-GARCH model outperform the hybrid k-factor GARMA-LLWNN model, and find it is more appropriate for forecasts.
Abstract: Electricity spot prices are highly volatile under
optimal generation capacity scenarios due to factors such as nonstorability
of electricity, peak demand at certain periods, generator
outages, fuel uncertainty for renewable energy generators, huge
investments and time needed for generation capacity expansion etc.
As a result market participants are exposed to price and volume risk,
which has led to the development of risk management practices. This
paper provides an overview of risk management practices by market
participants in electricity markets using financial derivatives.
Abstract: In this paper variation of spot price and total profits of
the generating companies- through wholesale electricity trading are
discussed with and without Central Generating Stations (CGS) share
and seasonal variations are also considered. It demonstrates how
proper analysis of generators- efficiencies and capabilities, types of
generators owned, fuel costs, transmission losses and settling price
variation using the solutions of Optimal Power Flow (OPF), can
allow companies to maximize overall revenue. It illustrates how
solutions of OPF can be used to maximize companies- revenue under
different scenarios. And is also extended to computation of Available
Transfer Capability (ATC) is very important to the transmission
system security and market forecasting. From these results it is
observed that how crucial it is for companies to plan their daily
operations and is certainly useful in an online environment of
deregulated power system. In this paper above tasks are demonstrated
on 124 bus real-life Indian utility power system of Andhra Pradesh
State Grid and results have been presented and analyzed.
Abstract: Due to the increasing and varying risks that economic units face with, derivative instruments gain substantial importance, and trading volumes of derivatives have reached very significant level. Parallel with these high trading volumes, researchers have developed many different models. Some are parametric, some are nonparametric. In this study, the aim is to analyse the success of artificial neural network in pricing of options with S&P 100 index options data. Generally, the previous studies cover the data of European type call options. This study includes not only European call option but also American call and put options and European put options. Three data sets are used to perform three different ANN models. One only includes data that are directly observed from the economic environment, i.e. strike price, spot price, interest rate, maturity, type of the contract. The others include an extra input that is not an observable data but a parameter, i.e. volatility. With these detail data, the performance of ANN in put/call dimension, American/European dimension, moneyness dimension is analyzed and whether the contribution of the volatility in neural network analysis make improvement in prediction performance or not is examined. The most striking results revealed by the study is that ANN shows better performance when pricing call options compared to put options; and the use of volatility parameter as an input does not improve the performance.