Abstract: Supply chain networks are frequently hit by
unplanned events which lead to disruptions and cause operational and
financial consequences. It is neither possible to avoid disruption risk
entirely, nor are network members able to prepare for every possible
disruptive event. Therefore a continuity planning should be set up
which supports effective operational responses in supply chain
networks in times of emergencies. In this research network related
degrees of freedom which determine the options for responsive
actions are derived from interview data. The findings are further
embedded into a common risk management process. The paper
provides support for researchers and practitioners to identify the
network related options for responsive actions and to determine the
need for improving the reaction capabilities.
Abstract: With the advance in wireless networking, IEEE 802.16 WiMAX technology has been widely deployed for several applications such as “last mile" broadband service, cellular backhaul, and high-speed enterprise connectivity. As a result, military employed WiMAX as a high-speed wireless connection for data-link because of its point to multi-point and non-line-of-sight (NLOS) capability for many years. However, the risk of using WiMAX is a critical factor in some sensitive area of military applications especially in ammunition manufacturing such as solid propellant rocket production. The US DoD policy states that the following certification requirements are met for WiMAX: electromagnetic effects on the environment (E3) and Hazards of Electromagnetic Radiation to Ordnance (HERO). This paper discuses the Recommended Power Densities and Safe Separation Distance (SSD) for HERO on WiMAX systems deployed on solid propellant rocket production. The result of this research found that WiMAX is safe to operate at close proximity distances to the rocket production based on AF Guidance Memorandum immediately changing AFMAN 91-201.
Abstract: The distribution, enrichment, and accumulation of zinc
(Zn) in the sediments of Kaohsiung Ocean Disposal Site (KODS),
Taiwan were investigated. Sediment samples from two outer disposal
site stations and nine disposed stations in the KODS were collected per
quarterly in 2009 and characterized for Zn, aluminum, organic matter,
and grain size. Results showed that the mean Zn concentrations varied
from 48 mg/kg to 456 mg/kg. Results from the enrichment factor (EF)
and geo-accumulation index (Igeo) analyses imply that the sediments
collected from the KODS can be characterized between moderate and
moderately severe degree enrichment and between none and none to
medium accumulation of Zn, respectively. However, results of
potential ecological risk index indicate that the sediment has low
ecological potential risk. The EF, Igeo, and Zn concentrations at the
disposed stations were slightly higher than those at outer disposal site.
This indicated that the disposed area centers may be subjected to the
disposal impaction of harbor dredged sediments.
Abstract: This paper explores gender related barriers to interagency collaboration in statutory children safeguard partnerships against a theoretical framework that considers individuals, professions and organisations interacting as part of a complex adaptive system. We argue that gender-framed obstacles to effective communication between culturally discrepant agencies can ultimately impact on the effectiveness of policy delivery,. We focused our research on three partnership structures in Sefton Metropolitan Borough in order to observe how interactions occur, whether the agencies involved perceive their occupational environment as being gender affected and whether they believe this can hinder effective collaboration with other biased organisations. Our principal empirical findings indicate that there is a general awareness amongst professionals of the role that gender plays in each of the agencies reviewed, that gender may well constitute a barrier to effective communication, but there is a sense in which there is little scope for change in the short term. We aim to signal here, however, the need to change against the risk of service failure.
Abstract: This paper aims to present the main instruments used
in the economic literature for measuring the price risk, pointing out
on the advantages brought by the conditional variance in this respect.
The theoretical approach will be exemplified by elaborating an
EGARCH model for the price returns of wheat, both on Romanian
and on international market. To our knowledge, no previous
empirical research, either on price risk measurement for the
Romanian markets or studies that use the ARIMA-EGARCH
methodology, have been conducted. After estimating the
corresponding models, the paper will compare the estimated
conditional variance on the two markets.
Abstract: The cost of damage to the non-structural systems in
critical facilities like nuclear power plants and hospitals can exceed
80% of the total cost of damage during an earthquake. The failure of
nonstructural components, especially, piping systems led to leakage of
water and subsequent shut-down of hospitals immediately after the
event. Consequently, the evaluation of performance of these types of
structural configurations has become necessary to mitigate the risk and
to achieve reliable designs.
This paper focuses on a methodology to evaluate the static and
dynamic characteristics of complex actual piping system based on
NFPA-13 and SMACNA guidelines. The result of this study revealed
that current piping system subjected to design lateral force and design
spectrum based on UBC-97 was failed in both cases and mode shapes
between piping system and building structure were very different
Abstract: In this paper, we apply the FM methodology to the
cross-section of Romanian-listed common stocks and investigate the
explanatory power of market beta on the cross-section of commons
stock returns from Bucharest Stock Exchange. Various assumptions
are empirically tested, such us linearity, market efficiency, the “no
systematic effect of non-beta risk" hypothesis or the positive
expected risk-return trade-off hypothesis. We find that the Romanian
stock market shows the same properties as the other emerging
markets in terms of efficiency and significance of the linear riskreturn
models. Our analysis included weekly returns from January
2002 until May 2010 and the portfolio formation, estimation and
testing was performed in a rolling manner using 51 observations (one
year) for each stage of the analysis.
Abstract: We propose a multi-agent based utilitarian approach
to model and understand information flows in social networks that
lead to Pareto optimal informational exchanges. We model the
individual expected utility function of the agents to reflect the net
value of information received. We show how this model, adapted
from a theorem by Karl Borch dealing with an actuarial Risk
Exchange concept in the Insurance industry, can be used for social
network analysis. We develop a utilitarian framework that allows us
to interpret Pareto optimal exchanges of value as potential
information flows, while achieving a maximization of a sum of
expected utilities of information of the group of agents. We examine
some interesting conditions on the utility function under which the
flows are optimal. We illustrate the promise of this new approach to
attach economic value to information in networks with a synthetic
example.
Abstract: The purpose of this study is to revisit the concept of
rape as represented by professionals in the literature as well as its
perception (beliefs and attitudes) in the population at large and to
propose methodological improvements to its measurement tool. Rape
is a serious crime threatening its victim-s physical and mental health
and integrity; and as such is legally prosecuted in all modern
societies. The problem is not in accepting or rejecting rape as a
criminal act, but rather in the vagueness of its interpretations and
“justifications" maintained in the mentality of modern societies -
known in the literature as the phenomenon of "rape-myth". The rapemyth
can be studied from different perspectives: criminology,
sociology, ethics, medicine and psychology. Its investigation requires
rigorous scientific objectivity, free of passion (victims of rape are at
risk of emotional bias), free of activism (social activists, even if wellintentioned
are also biased), free of any pre-emptive assumptions or
prejudices. To apply a rigorous scientific procedure, we need a solid,
valid and reliable measurement. Rape is a form of heterosexual or
homosexual aggression, violently forcing the victim to give-in in the
sexual activity of the aggressor against her/his will. Human beings
always try to “understand" or find a reason justifying their acts.
Psychological literature provides multiple clinical and experimental
examples of it; just to mention the famous studies by Milgram on the
level of electroshock delivered by the “teacher" towards the “learner"
if “scientifically justifiable" or the studies on the behavior of
“prisoners" and the “guards" and many other experiments and field
observations. Sigmund Freud presented the phenomenon of
unconscious justification and called it rationalization. The multiple
justifications, rationalizations and repeated opinions about sexual
behavior contribute to a myth maintained in the society. What kind of
“rationale" our societies apply to “understand" the non-consensual
sexual behavior? There are many, just to mention few:
• Sex is a ludistic activity for both participants, therefore –
even if not consented – it should bring pleasure to both.
• Everybody wants sex, but only men are allowed to manifest
it openly while women have to pretend the opposite, thus men have
to initiate sexual behavior and women would follow.
• A person who strongly needs sex is free to manifest it and
struggle to get it; the person who doesn-t want it must not reveal
her/his sexual attraction and avoid risky situations; otherwise she/he
is perceived as a promiscuous seducer.
• A person who doesn-t fight against the sexual initiator
unconsciously accepts the rape (does it explain why homosexual
rapes are reported less frequently than rapes against women?).
• Women who are raped deserve it because their wardrobe is
very revealing and seducing and they ''willingly'' go to highly risky
places (alleys, dark roads, etc.).
• Men need to ventilate their sexual energy and if they are
deprived of a partner their urge to have sex is difficult to control.
• Men are supposed to initiate and insist even by force to have
sex (their testosterone makes them both sexual and aggressive).
The paper overviews numerous cultural beliefs about masculine
versus feminine behavior and their impact on the “rape myth".
Abstract: Risk response planning is of importance for software project risk management (SPRM). In CMMI, risk management was in the third capability maturity level, which provides a framework for software project risk identification, assessment, risk planning, risk control. However, the CMMI-based SPRM currently lacks quantitative supporting tools, especially during the process of implementing software project risk planning. In this paper, an economic optimization model for selecting risk reduction actions in the phase of software project risk response planning is presented. Furthermore, an example taken from a Chinese software industry is illustrated to verify the application of this method. The research provides a risk decision method for project risk managers that can be used in the implementation of CMMI-based SPRM.
Abstract: The higher compounded growth rates coupled with
favourable demographics in emerging markets portend abundant
opportunities for multinational organizations. With many
organizations competing for talent in these growing markets, their
ability to succeed will depend on their understanding of local
workforce needs and aspirations. Using data from the Towers Watson
2010 Global Workforce Study, this paper highlights differences in
employee engagement, turnover risks, and attraction and retention
drivers between the two markets. Apart from looking at the
traditional drivers of employee engagement, the study also explores
the value placed by employees on elements like a strong senior
leadership, managerial capabilities and career advancement
opportunities. Results reveal that emerging markets employees seem
to be more engaged and value the non-traditional elements more
highly than the developed markets employees.
Abstract: R&D risk management has been suggested as one of
the management approaches for accomplishing the goals of public
R&D investment. The investment in basic science and core technology
development is the essential roles of government for securing the
social base needed for continuous economic growth. And, it is also an
important role of the science and technology policy sectors to generate
a positive environment in which the outcomes of public R&D can be
diffused in a stable fashion by controlling the uncertainties and risk
factors in advance that may arise during the application of such
achievements to society and industry. Various policies have already
been implemented to manage uncertainties and variables that may
have negative impact on accomplishing public R& investment goals.
But we may derive new policy measures for complementing the
existing policies and for exploring progress direction by analyzing
them in a policy package from the viewpoint of R&D risk
management.
Abstract: Nanotechnology is the science of creating, using and
manipulating objects which have at least one dimension in range of
0.1 to 100 nanometers. In other words, nanotechnology is
reconstructing a substance using its individual atoms and arranging
them in a way that is desirable for our purpose.
The main reason that nanotechnology has been attracting
attentions is the unique properties that objects show when they are
formed at nano-scale. These differing characteristics that nano-scale
materials show compared to their nature-existing form is both useful
in creating high quality products and dangerous when being in
contact with body or spread in environment.
In order to control and lower the risk of such nano-scale particles,
the main following three topics should be considered:
1) First of all, these materials would cause long term diseases that
may show their effects on body years after being penetrated in human
organs and since this science has become recently developed in
industrial scale not enough information is available about their
hazards on body.
2) The second is that these particles can easily spread out in
environment and remain in air, soil or water for very long time,
besides their high ability to penetrate body skin and causing new
kinds of diseases.
3) The third one is that to protect body and environment against
the danger of these particles, the protective barriers must be finer than
these small objects and such defenses are hard to accomplish.
This paper will review, discuss and assess the risks that human and
environment face as this new science develops at a high rate.
Abstract: Several different cements have been tested to evaluate
their potential to leach calcium, chromium and aluminum ions in soft
water environment. The research allows comparing some different
cements in order to the potential risk of water contamination. This
can be done only in the same environment. To reach the results in
reasonable short time intervals and to make heavy metals
measurements with high accuracy, demineralized water was used. In
this case the conditions of experiments are far away from the water
supply practice, but short time experiments and measurably high
concentrations of elements in the water solution are an important
advantage. Moreover leaching mechanisms can be recognized, our
experiments reported here refer to this kind of cements evaluation.
Abstract: Support Vector Machine (SVM) is a statistical
learning tool developed to a more complex concept of
structural risk minimization (SRM). In this paper, SVM is
applied to signal detection in communication systems in the
presence of channel noise in various environments in the form
of Rayleigh fading, additive white Gaussian background noise
(AWGN), and interference noise generalized as additive color
Gaussian noise (ACGN). The structure and performance of
SVM in terms of the bit error rate (BER) metric is derived and
simulated for these advanced stochastic noise models and the
computational complexity of the implementation, in terms of
average computational time per bit, is also presented. The
performance of SVM is then compared to conventional binary
signaling optimal model-based detector driven by binary
phase shift keying (BPSK) modulation. We show that the
SVM performance is superior to that of conventional matched
filter-, innovation filter-, and Wiener filter-driven detectors,
even in the presence of random Doppler carrier deviation,
especially for low SNR (signal-to-noise ratio) ranges. For
large SNR, the performance of the SVM was similar to that of
the classical detectors. However, the convergence between
SVM and maximum likelihood detection occurred at a higher
SNR as the noise environment became more hostile.
Abstract: In this paper, a heuristic method for simultaneous
rescue robot path-planning and mission scheduling is introduced
based on project management techniques, multi criteria decision
making and artificial potential fields path-planning. Groups of
injured people are trapped in a disastrous situation. These people are
categorized into several groups based on the severity of their
situation. A rescue robot, whose ultimate objective is reaching
injured groups and providing preliminary aid for them through a path
with minimum risk, has to perform certain tasks on its way towards
targets before the arrival of rescue team. A decision value is assigned
to each target based on the whole degree of satisfaction of the criteria
and duties of the robot toward the target and the importance of
rescuing each target based on their category and the number of
injured people. The resulted decision value defines the strength of the
attractive potential field of each target. Dangerous environmental
parameters are defined as obstacles whose risk determines the
strength of the repulsive potential field of each obstacle. Moreover,
negative and positive energies are assigned to the targets and
obstacles, which are variable with respects to the factors involved.
The simulation results show that the generated path for two cases
studies with certain differences in environmental conditions and
other risk factors differ considerably.
Abstract: Lutein is a dietary oxycarotenoid which is found
to reduce the risks of Age-related Macular Degeneration
(AMD). Supercritical fluid extraction of lutein esters from
marigold petals was carried out and was found to be much
effective than conventional solvent extraction. The
saponification of pre-concentrated lutein esters to produce free
lutein was studied which showed a composition of about 88%
total carotenoids (UV-VIS spectrophotometry) and 90.7%
lutein (HPLC). The lipase catalyzed hydrolysis of lutein esters
in conventional medium was investigated. The optimal
temperature, pH, enzyme concentration and water activity
were found to be 50°C, 7, 15% and 0.33 respectively and the
activity loss of lipase was about 25% after 8 times re-use in at
50°C for 12 days. However, the lipase catalyzed hydrolysis of
lutein esters in conventional media resulted in poor
conversions (16.4%).
Abstract: Basel III (or the Third Basel Accord) is a global
regulatory standard on bank capital adequacy, stress testing and
market liquidity risk agreed upon by the members of the Basel
Committee on Banking Supervision in 2010-2011, and scheduled to
be introduced from 2013 until 2018. Basel III is a comprehensive set
of reform measures. These measures aim to; (1) improve the banking
sector-s ability to absorb shocks arising from financial and economic
stress, whatever the source, (2) improve risk management and
governance, (3) strengthen banks- transparency and disclosures.
Similarly the reform target; (1) bank level or micro-prudential,
regulation, which will help raise the resilience of individual banking
institutions to periods of stress. (2) Macro-prudential regulations,
system wide risk that can build up across the banking sector as well
as the pro-cyclical implication of these risks over time. These two
approaches to supervision are complementary as greater resilience at
the individual bank level reduces the risk system wide shocks.
Macroeconomic impact of Basel III; OECD estimates that the
medium-term impact of Basel III implementation on GDP growth is
in the range -0,05 percent to -0,15 percent per year. On the other hand
economic output is mainly affected by an increase in bank lending
spreads as banks pass a rise in banking funding costs, due to higher
capital requirements, to their customers. Consequently the estimated
effects on GDP growth assume no active response from monetary
policy. Basel III impact on economic output could be offset by a
reduction (or delayed increase) in monetary policy rates by about 30
to 80 basis points. The aim of this paper is to create a framework
based on the recent regulations in order to prevent financial crises.
Thus the need to overcome the global financial crisis will contribute
to financial crises that may occur in the future periods. In the first
part of the paper, the effects of the global crisis on the banking
system examine the concept of financial regulations. In the second
part; especially in the financial regulations and Basel III are analyzed.
The last section in this paper explored the possible consequences of
the macroeconomic impacts of Basel III.
Abstract: Data Mining aims at discovering knowledge out of
data and presenting it in a form that is easily comprehensible to
humans. One of the useful applications in Egypt is the Cancer
management, especially the management of Acute Lymphoblastic
Leukemia or ALL, which is the most common type of cancer in
children.
This paper discusses the process of designing a prototype that can
help in the management of childhood ALL, which has a great
significance in the health care field. Besides, it has a social impact
on decreasing the rate of infection in children in Egypt. It also
provides valubale information about the distribution and
segmentation of ALL in Egypt, which may be linked to the possible
risk factors.
Undirected Knowledge Discovery is used since, in the case of this
research project, there is no target field as the data provided is
mainly subjective. This is done in order to quantify the subjective
variables. Therefore, the computer will be asked to identify
significant patterns in the provided medical data about ALL. This
may be achieved through collecting the data necessary for the
system, determimng the data mining technique to be used for the
system, and choosing the most suitable implementation tool for the
domain.
The research makes use of a data mining tool, Clementine, so as to
apply Decision Trees technique. We feed it with data extracted from
real-life cases taken from specialized Cancer Institutes. Relevant
medical cases details such as patient medical history and diagnosis
are analyzed, classified, and clustered in order to improve the disease
management.
Abstract: A model is presented to find the optimal design of the
mixed renewable warranty policy for non-repairable Weibull life
products. The optimal design considers the conflict of interests
between the customer and the manufacturer: the customer interests
are longer full rebate coverage period and longer total warranty
coverage period, the manufacturer interests are lower warranty cost
and lower risk. The design factors are full rebate and total warranty
coverage periods. Results showed that mixed policy is better than full
rebate policy in terms of risk and total warranty coverage period in all
of the three bathtub regions. In addition, results showed that linear
policy is better than mixed policy in infant mortality and constant
failure regions while the mixed policy is better than linear policy in
ageing region of the model. Furthermore, the results showed that
using burn-in period for infant mortality products reduces warranty
cost and risk.