Abstract: An adaptive software reliability prediction model
using evolutionary connectionist approach based on Recurrent Radial
Basis Function architecture is proposed. Based on the currently
available software failure time data, Fuzzy Min-Max algorithm is
used to globally optimize the number of the k Gaussian nodes. The
corresponding optimized neural network architecture is iteratively
and dynamically reconfigured in real-time as new actual failure time
data arrives. The performance of our proposed approach has been
tested using sixteen real-time software failure data. Numerical results
show that our proposed approach is robust across different software
projects, and has a better performance with respect to next-steppredictability
compared to existing neural network model for failure
time prediction.
Abstract: An advanced Monte Carlo simulation method, called Subset Simulation (SS) for the time-dependent reliability prediction for underground pipelines has been presented in this paper. The SS can provide better resolution for low failure probability level with efficient investigating of rare failure events which are commonly encountered in pipeline engineering applications. In SS method, random samples leading to progressive failure are generated efficiently and used for computing probabilistic performance by statistical variables. SS gains its efficiency as small probability event as a product of a sequence of intermediate events with larger conditional probabilities. The efficiency of SS has been demonstrated by numerical studies and attention in this work is devoted to scrutinise the robustness of the SS application in pipe reliability assessment. It is hoped that the development work can promote the use of SS tools for uncertainty propagation in the decision-making process of underground pipelines network reliability prediction.