Abstract: Energy has a prominent role for development of
nations. Countries which have energy resources also have strategic
power in the international trade of energy since it is essential for all
stages of production in the economy. Thus, it is important for
countries to analyze the weaknesses and strength of the system. On
the other side, international trade is one of the fields that are analyzed
as a complex network via network analysis. Complex network is one
of the tools to analyze complex systems with heterogeneous agents
and interaction between them. A complex network consists of nodes
and the interactions between these nodes. Total properties which
emerge as a result of these interactions are distinct from the sum of
small parts (more or less) in complex systems. Thus, standard
approaches to international trade are superficial to analyze these
systems. Network analysis provides a new approach to analyze
international trade as a network. In this network, countries constitute
nodes and trade relations (export or import) constitute edges. It
becomes possible to analyze international trade network in terms of
high degree indicators which are specific to complex networks such
as connectivity, clustering, assortativity/disassortativity, centrality,
etc. In this analysis, international trade of crude oil and coal which
are types of fossil fuel has been analyzed from 2005 to 2014 via
network analysis. First, it has been analyzed in terms of some
topological parameters such as density, transitivity, clustering etc.
Afterwards, fitness to Pareto distribution has been analyzed via
Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. Finally, weighted HITS algorithm has
been applied to the data as a centrality measure to determine the real
prominence of countries in these trade networks. Weighted HITS
algorithm is a strong tool to analyze the network by ranking countries
with regards to prominence of their trade partners. We have
calculated both an export centrality and an import centrality by
applying w-HITS algorithm to the data. As a result, impacts of the
trading countries have been presented in terms of high-degree
indicators.
Abstract: Modeling and forecasting dynamics of rainfall
occurrences constitute one of the major topics, which have been
largely treated by statisticians, hydrologists, climatologists and many
other groups of scientists. In the same issue, we propose, in the
present paper, a new hybrid method, which combines Extreme
Values and fractal theories. We illustrate the use of our methodology
for transformed Emberger Index series, constructed basing on data
recorded in Oujda (Morocco).
The index is treated at first by Peaks Over Threshold (POT)
approach, to identify excess observations over an optimal threshold u.
In the second step, we consider the resulting excess as a fractal object
included in one dimensional space of time. We identify fractal
dimension by the box counting. We discuss the prospect descriptions
of rainfall data sets under Generalized Pareto Distribution, assured by
Extreme Values Theory (EVT). We show that, despite of the
appropriateness of return periods given by POT approach, the
introduction of fractal dimension provides accurate interpretation
results, which can ameliorate apprehension of rainfall occurrences.
Abstract: The focus of this paper is to develop a technique
of solving a combined problem of determining Optimum Strata
Boundaries(OSB) and Optimum Sample Size (OSS) of each stratum,
when the population understudy isskewed and the study variable has
a Pareto frequency distribution. The problem of determining the OSB
isformulated as a Mathematical Programming Problem (MPP) which
is then solved by dynamic programming technique. A numerical
example is presented to illustrate the computational details of the
proposed method. The proposed technique is useful to obtain OSB
and OSS for a Pareto type skewed population, which minimizes the
variance of the estimate of population mean.
Abstract: We develop a new estimator of the renewal function for heavy-tailed claims amounts. Our approach is based on the peak over threshold method for estimating the tail of the distribution with a generalized Pareto distribution. The asymptotic normality of an appropriately centered and normalized estimator is established, and its performance illustrated in a simulation study.