Abstract: Crop yield prediction is a paramount issue in
agriculture. The main idea of this paper is to find out efficient
way to predict the yield of corn based meteorological records.
The prediction models used in this paper can be classified into
model-driven approaches and data-driven approaches, according to
the different modeling methodologies. The model-driven approaches are based on crop mechanistic
modeling. They describe crop growth in interaction with their
environment as dynamical systems. But the calibration process of
the dynamic system comes up with much difficulty, because it
turns out to be a multidimensional non-convex optimization problem.
An original contribution of this paper is to propose a statistical
methodology, Multi-Scenarios Parameters Estimation (MSPE), for the
parametrization of potentially complex mechanistic models from a
new type of datasets (climatic data, final yield in many situations).
It is tested with CORNFLO, a crop model for maize growth. On the other hand, the data-driven approach for yield prediction
is free of the complex biophysical process. But it has some strict
requirements about the dataset.
A second contribution of the paper is the comparison of these
model-driven methods with classical data-driven methods. For this
purpose, we consider two classes of regression methods, methods
derived from linear regression (Ridge and Lasso Regression, Principal
Components Regression or Partial Least Squares Regression) and
machine learning methods (Random Forest, k-Nearest Neighbor,
Artificial Neural Network and SVM regression).
The dataset consists of 720 records of corn yield at county scale
provided by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and
the associated climatic data. A 5-folds cross-validation process and
two accuracy metrics: root mean square error of prediction(RMSEP),
mean absolute error of prediction(MAEP) were used to evaluate the
crop prediction capacity.
The results show that among the data-driven approaches, Random
Forest is the most robust and generally achieves the best prediction
error (MAEP 4.27%). It also outperforms our model-driven approach
(MAEP 6.11%). However, the method to calibrate the mechanistic
model from dataset easy to access offers several side-perspectives.
The mechanistic model can potentially help to underline the stresses
suffered by the crop or to identify the biological parameters of interest
for breeding purposes. For this reason, an interesting perspective is
to combine these two types of approaches.
Abstract: We present a solution to the Maxmin u/E parameters
estimation problem of possibility distributions in m-dimensional
case. Our method is based on geometrical approach, where minimal
area enclosing ellipsoid is constructed around the sample. Also we
demonstrate that one can improve results of well-known algorithms
in fuzzy model identification task using Maxmin u/E parameters
estimation.
Abstract: The dynamics of the Autonomous Underwater
Vehicles (AUVs) are highly nonlinear and time varying and the hydrodynamic coefficients of vehicles are difficult to estimate
accurately because of the variations of these coefficients with
different navigation conditions and external disturbances. This study presents the on-line system identification of AUV dynamics to obtain
the coupled nonlinear dynamic model of AUV as a black box. This black box has an input-output relationship based upon on-line
adaptive fuzzy model and adaptive neural fuzzy network (ANFN)
model techniques to overcome the uncertain external disturbance and
the difficulties of modelling the hydrodynamic forces of the AUVs instead of using the mathematical model with hydrodynamic parameters estimation. The models- parameters are adapted according
to the back propagation algorithm based upon the error between the
identified model and the actual output of the plant. The proposed
ANFN model adopts a functional link neural network (FLNN) as the
consequent part of the fuzzy rules. Thus, the consequent part of the
ANFN model is a nonlinear combination of input variables. Fuzzy
control system is applied to guide and control the AUV using both
adaptive models and mathematical model. Simulation results show
the superiority of the proposed adaptive neural fuzzy network
(ANFN) model in tracking of the behavior of the AUV accurately
even in the presence of noise and disturbance.
Abstract: This paper presents a new approach for the prob-ability density function estimation using the Support Vector Ma-chines (SVM) and the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithms.In the proposed approach, an advanced algorithm for the SVM den-sity estimation which incorporates the Mean Field theory in the learning process is used. Instead of using ad-hoc values for the para-meters of the kernel function which is used by the SVM algorithm,the proposed approach uses the EM algorithm for an automatic optimization of the kernel. Experimental evaluation using simulated data set shows encouraging results.
Abstract: We address the problem of joint beamforming and multipath channel parameters estimation in Wideband Code Division Multiple Access (WCDMA) communication systems that employ Multiple-Access Interference (MAI) suppression techniques in the uplink (from mobile to base station). Most of the existing schemes rely on time multiplex a training sequence with the user data. In WCDMA, the channel parameters can also be estimated from a code multiplexed common pilot channel (CPICH) that could be corrupted by strong interference resulting in a bad estimate. In this paper, we present new methods to combine interference suppression together with channel estimation when using multiple receiving antennas by using adaptive signal processing techniques. Computer simulation is used to compare between the proposed methods and the existing conventional estimation techniques.
Abstract: This paper introduces a novel approach to estimate the
clique potentials of Gibbs Markov random field (GMRF) models
using the Support Vector Machines (SVM) algorithm and the Mean
Field (MF) theory. The proposed approach is based on modeling the
potential function associated with each clique shape of the GMRF
model as a Gaussian-shaped kernel. In turn, the energy function of
the GMRF will be in the form of a weighted sum of Gaussian
kernels. This formulation of the GMRF model urges the use of the
SVM with the Mean Field theory applied for its learning for
estimating the energy function. The approach has been tested on
synthetic texture images and is shown to provide satisfactory results
in retrieving the synthesizing parameters.
Abstract: According to the interaction of inflation and
unemployment, expectation of the rate of inflation in Croatia is
estimated. The interaction between inflation and unemployment is
shown by model based on three first-order differential i.e. difference
equations: Phillips relation, adaptive expectations equation and
monetary-policy equation. The resulting equation is second order
differential i.e. difference equation which describes the time path of
inflation. The data of the rate of inflation and the rate of
unemployment are used for parameters estimation. On the basis of
the estimated time paths, the stability and convergence analysis is
done for the rate of inflation.
Abstract: This paper is concerned with the application of the vision control algorithm for robot's point placement task in discontinuous trajectory caused by obstacle. The presented vision control algorithm consists of four models, which are the robot kinematic model, vision system model, parameters estimation model, and robot joint angle estimation model.When the robot moves toward a target along discontinuous trajectory, several types of obstacles appear in two obstacle regions. Then, this study is to investigate how these changes will affect the presented vision control algorithm.Thus, the practicality of the vision control algorithm is demonstrated experimentally by performing the robot's point placement task in discontinuous trajectory by obstacle.
Abstract: This paper presents Simulated Annealing based
approach to estimate solar cell model parameters. Single diode solar
cell model is used in this study to validate the proposed approach
outcomes. The developed technique is used to estimate different
model parameters such as generated photocurrent, saturation current,
series resistance, shunt resistance, and ideality factor that govern the
current-voltage relationship of a solar cell. A practical case study is
used to test and verify the consistency of accurately estimating
various parameters of single diode solar cell model. Comparative
study among different parameter estimation techniques is presented
to show the effectiveness of the developed approach.
Abstract: In this paper usefulness of quasi-Newton iteration
procedure in parameters estimation of the conditional variance
equation within BHHH algorithm is presented. Analytical solution of
maximization of the likelihood function using first and second
derivatives is too complex when the variance is time-varying. The
advantage of BHHH algorithm in comparison to the other
optimization algorithms is that requires no third derivatives with
assured convergence. To simplify optimization procedure BHHH
algorithm uses the approximation of the matrix of second derivatives
according to information identity. However, parameters estimation in
a/symmetric GARCH(1,1) model assuming normal distribution of
returns is not that simple, i.e. it is difficult to solve it analytically.
Maximum of the likelihood function can be founded by iteration
procedure until no further increase can be found. Because the
solutions of the numerical optimization are very sensitive to the
initial values, GARCH(1,1) model starting parameters are defined.
The number of iterations can be reduced using starting values close
to the global maximum. Optimization procedure will be illustrated in
framework of modeling volatility on daily basis of the most liquid
stocks on Croatian capital market: Podravka stocks (food industry),
Petrokemija stocks (fertilizer industry) and Ericsson Nikola Tesla
stocks (information-s-communications industry).
Abstract: To learn about China-s future energy demand, this paper first proposed GM(1,1) model group based on recursive solutions of parameters estimation, setting up a general solving-algorithm of the model group. This method avoided the problems occurred on the past researches that remodeling, loss of information and large amount of calculation. This paper established respectively all-data-GM(1,1), metabolic GM(1,1) and new information GM (1,1)model according to the historical data of energy consumption in China in the year 2005-2010 and the added data of 2011, then modeling, simulating and comparison of accuracies we got the optimal models and to predict. Results showed that the total energy demand of China will be 37.2221 billion tons of equivalent coal in 2012 and 39.7973 billion tons of equivalent coal in 2013, which are as the same as the overall planning of energy demand in The 12th Five-Year Plan.
Abstract: A new technique based on Pattern search optimization is proposed for estimating different solar cell parameters in this paper. The estimated parameters are the generated photocurrent, saturation current, series resistance, shunt resistance, and ideality factor. The proposed approach is tested and validated using double diode model to show its potential. Performance of the developed approach is quite interesting which signifies its potential as a promising estimation tool.