Abstract: Allocating limited budget to maintain bridge networks and selecting effective maintenance strategies for each bridge represent challenging tasks for maintenance managers and decision makers. In Egypt, bridges are continuously deteriorating. In many cases, maintenance works are performed due to user complaints. The objective of this paper is to develop a practical and reliable framework to manage the maintenance, repair, and rehabilitation (MR&R) activities of Bridges network considering performance and budget limits. The model solves an optimization problem that maximizes the average condition of the entire network given the limited available budget using Genetic Algorithm (GA). The framework contains bridge inventory, condition assessment, repair cost calculation, deterioration prediction, and maintenance optimization. The developed model takes into account multiple parameters including serviceability requirements, budget allocation, element importance on structural safety and serviceability, bridge impact on network, and traffic. A questionnaire is conducted to complete the research scope. The proposed model is implemented in software, which provides a friendly user interface. The framework provides a multi-year maintenance plan for the entire network for up to five years. A case study of ten bridges is presented to validate and test the proposed model with data collected from Transportation Authorities in Egypt. Different scenarios are presented. The results are reasonable, feasible and within acceptable domain.
Abstract: The cumulative costs for O&M may represent as
much as 65%-90% of the turbine's investment cost. Nowadays the
cost effectiveness concept becomes a decision-making and
technology evaluation metric. The cost of energy metric accounts for
the effect replacement cost and unscheduled maintenance cost
parameters. One key of the proposed approach is the idea of
maintaining the WTs which can be captured via use of a finite state
Markov chain. Such a model can be embedded within a probabilistic
operation and maintenance simulation reflecting the action to be
done. In this paper, an approach of estimating the cost of O&M is
presented. The finite state Markov model is used for decision
problems with number of determined periods (life cycle) to predict
the cost according to various options of maintenance.
Abstract: In this paper, we present a simplified higher-order Markov chain model for multiple categorical data sequences also called as simplified higher-order multivariate Markov chain model.
Abstract: Modeling the behavior of the dialogue management in
the design of a spoken dialogue system using statistical methodologies
is currently a growing research area. This paper presents a work
on developing an adaptive learning approach to optimize dialogue
strategy. At the core of our system is a method formalizing dialogue
management as a sequential decision making under uncertainty whose
underlying probabilistic structure has a Markov Chain. Researchers
have mostly focused on model-free algorithms for automating the
design of dialogue management using machine learning techniques
such as reinforcement learning. But in model-free algorithms there
exist a dilemma in engaging the type of exploration versus exploitation.
Hence we present a model-based online policy learning
algorithm using interconnected learning automata for optimizing
dialogue strategy. The proposed algorithm is capable of deriving
an optimal policy that prescribes what action should be taken in
various states of conversation so as to maximize the expected total
reward to attain the goal and incorporates good exploration and
exploitation in its updates to improve the naturalness of humancomputer
interaction. We test the proposed approach using the most
sophisticated evaluation framework PARADISE for accessing to the
railway information system.
Abstract: Most of the real queuing systems include special properties and constraints, which can not be analyzed directly by using the results of solved classical queuing models. Lack of Markov chains features, unexponential patterns and service constraints, are the mentioned conditions. This paper represents an applied general algorithm for analysis and optimizing the queuing systems. The algorithm stages are described through a real case study. It is consisted of an almost completed non-Markov system with limited number of customers and capacities as well as lots of common exception of real queuing networks. Simulation is used for optimizing this system. So introduced stages over the following article include primary modeling, determining queuing system kinds, index defining, statistical analysis and goodness of fit test, validation of model and optimizing methods of system with simulation.
Abstract: This paper presents a novel method for remaining
useful life prediction using the Elliptical Basis Function (EBF)
network and a Markov chain. The EBF structure is trained by a
modified Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm in order to take
into account the missing covariate set. No explicit extrapolation is
needed for internal covariates while a Markov chain is constructed to
represent the evolution of external covariates in the study. The
estimated external and the unknown internal covariates constitute an
incomplete covariate set which are then used and analyzed by the EBF
network to provide survival information of the asset. It is shown in the
case study that the method slightly underestimates the remaining
useful life of an asset which is a desirable result for early maintenance
decision and resource planning.