Bail-in Capital: The New Box

In this paper, we discuss the paradigm shift in bank capital from the “gone concern" to the “going concern" mindset. We then propose a methodology for pricing a product of this shift called Contingent Capital Notes (“CoCos"). The Merton Model can determine a price for credit risk by using the firm-s equity value as a call option on those assets. Our pricing methodology for CoCos also uses the credit spread implied by the Merton Model in a subsequent derivative form created by John Hull et al . Here, a market implied asset volatility is calculated by using observed market CDS spreads. This implied asset volatility is then used to estimate the probability of triggering a predetermined “contingency event" given the distanceto- trigger (DTT). The paper then investigates the effect of varying DTTs and recovery assumptions on the CoCo yield. We conclude with an investment rationale.