Abstract: Bayesian networks are now considered to be a promising tool in the field of energy with different applications. In this study, the aim was to indicate the states of a previous constructed Bayesian network related to the solar energy in Egypt and the factors affecting its market share, depending on the followed data distribution type for each factor, and using either the Z-distribution approach or the Chebyshev’s inequality theorem. Later on, the separate and the conditional probabilities of the states of each factor in the Bayesian network were derived, either from the collected and scrapped historical data or from estimations and past studies. Results showed that we could use the constructed model for scenario and decision analysis concerning forecasting the total percentage of the market share of the solar energy in Egypt by 2035 and using it as a stable renewable source for generating any type of energy needed. Also, it proved that whenever the use of the solar energy increases, the total costs decreases. Furthermore, we have identified different scenarios, such as the best, worst, 50/50, and most likely one, in terms of the expected changes in the percentage of the solar energy market share. The best scenario showed an 85% probability that the market share of the solar energy in Egypt will exceed 10% of the total energy market, while the worst scenario showed only a 24% probability that the market share of the solar energy in Egypt will exceed 10% of the total energy market. Furthermore, we applied policy analysis to check the effect of changing the controllable (decision) variable’s states acting as different scenarios, to show how it would affect the target nodes in the model. Additionally, the best environmental and economical scenarios were developed to show how other factors are expected to be, in order to affect the model positively. Additional evidence and derived probabilities were added for the weather dynamic nodes whose states depend on time, during the process of converting the Bayesian network into a dynamic Bayesian network.
Abstract: In an era where machines run and shape our world, the need for a stable, non-ending source of energy emerges. In this study, the focus was on the solar energy in Egypt as a renewable source, the most important factors that could affect the solar energy’s market share throughout its life cycle production were analyzed and filtered, the relationships between them were derived before structuring a Bayesian network. Also, forecasted models were built for multiple factors to predict the states in Egypt by 2035, based on historical data and patterns, to be used as the nodes’ states in the network. 37 factors were found to might have an impact on the use of solar energy and then were deducted to 12 factors that were chosen to be the most effective to the solar energy’s life cycle in Egypt, based on surveying experts and data analysis, some of the factors were found to be recurring in multiple stages. The presented Bayesian network could be used later for scenario and decision analysis of using solar energy in Egypt, as a stable renewable source for generating any type of energy needed.
Abstract: Safety analysis for multi-agent systems is complicated by the, potentially nonlinear, interactions between agents. This paper proposes a method for analyzing the safety of multi-agent systems by explicitly focusing on interactions and the accident data of systems that are similar in structure and function to the system being analyzed. The method creates a Bayesian network using the accident data from similar systems. A feature of our method is that the events in accident data are labeled with HAZOP guide words. Our method uses an Ontology to abstract away from the details of a multi-agent implementation. Using the ontology, our methods then constructs an “Interaction Map,” a graphical representation of the patterns of interactions between agents and other artifacts. Interaction maps combined with statistical data from accidents and the HAZOP classifications of events can be converted into a Bayesian Network. Bayesian networks allow designers to explore “what it” scenarios and make design trade-offs that maintain safety. We show how to use the Bayesian networks, and the interaction maps to improve multi-agent system designs.
Abstract: The increasing importance of FlexRay systems in
automotive domain inspires unceasingly relative researches. One
primary issue among researches is to verify the reliability of FlexRay
systems either from protocol aspect or from system design aspect.
However, research rarely discusses the effect of network topology on
the system reliability. In this paper, we will illustrate how to model
the reliability of FlexRay systems with various network topologies by
a well-known probabilistic reasoning technology, Bayesian Network.
In this illustration, we especially investigate the effectiveness of error
containment built in star topology and fault-tolerant midpoint
synchronization algorithm adopted in FlexRay communication
protocol. Through a FlexRay steer-by-wire case study, the influence
of different topologies on the failure probability of the FlexRay steerby-
wire system is demonstrated. The notable value of this research is
to show that the Bayesian Network inference is a powerful and
feasible method for the reliability assessment of FlexRay systems.
Abstract: Bond Graph as a unified multidisciplinary tool is widely
used not only for dynamic modelling but also for Fault Detection and
Isolation because of its structural and causal proprieties. A binary
Fault Signature Matrix is systematically generated but to make the
final binary decision is not always feasible because of the problems
revealed by such method. The purpose of this paper is introducing a
methodology for the improvement of the classical binary method of
decision-making, so that the unknown and identical failure signatures
can be treated to improve the robustness. This approach consists of
associating the evaluated residuals and the components reliability data
to build a Hybrid Bayesian Network. This network is used in two
distinct inference procedures: one for the continuous part and the
other for the discrete part. The continuous nodes of the network are
the prior probabilities of the components failures, which are used by
the inference procedure on the discrete part to compute the posterior
probabilities of the failures. The developed methodology is applied
to a real steam generator pilot process.
Abstract: With the development of the Internet, E-commerce is
growing at an exponential rate, and lots of online stores are built up to
sell their goods online. A major factor influencing the successful
adoption of E-commerce is consumer-s trust. For new or unknown
Internet business, consumers- lack of trust has been cited as a major
barrier to its proliferation. As web sites provide key interface for
consumer use of E-Commerce, we investigate the design of web site to
build trust in E-Commerce from a design science approach. A
conceptual model is proposed in this paper to describe the ontology of
online transaction and human-computer interaction. Based on this
conceptual model, we provide a personalized webpage design
approach using Bayesian networks learning method. Experimental
evaluation are designed to show the effectiveness of web
personalization in improving consumer-s trust in new or unknown
online store.
Abstract: In large Internet backbones, Service Providers
typically have to explicitly manage the traffic flows in order to
optimize the use of network resources. This process is often referred
to as Traffic Engineering (TE). Common objectives of traffic
engineering include balance traffic distribution across the network
and avoiding congestion hot spots. Raj P H and SVK Raja designed
the Bayesian network approach to identify congestion hors pots in
MPLS. In this approach for every node in the network the
Conditional Probability Distribution (CPD) is specified. Based on
the CPD the congestion hot spots are identified. Then the traffic can
be distributed so that no link in the network is either over utilized or
under utilized. Although the Bayesian network approach has been
implemented in operational networks, it has a number of well known
scaling issues.
This paper proposes a new approach, which we call the Pragati
(means Progress) Node Popularity (PNP) approach to identify the
congestion hot spots with the network topology alone. In the new
Pragati Node Popularity approach, IP routing runs natively over the
physical topology rather than depending on the CPD of each node as
in Bayesian network. We first illustrate our approach with a simple
network, then present a formal analysis of the Pragati Node
Popularity approach. Our PNP approach shows that for any given
network of Bayesian approach, it exactly identifies the same result
with minimum efforts. We further extend the result to a more
generic one: for any network topology and even though the network
is loopy. A theoretical insight of our result is that the optimal routing
is always shortest path routing with respect to some considerations of
hot spots in the networks.