Abstract: This paper examines the effect of the volatility of oil
prices on food price in South Africa using monthly data covering the
period 2002:01 to 2014:09. Food price is measured by the South
African consumer price index for food while oil price is proxied by
the Brent crude oil. The study employs the GARCH-in-mean VAR
model, which allows the investigation of the effect of a negative and
positive shock in oil price volatility on food price. The model also
allows the oil price uncertainty to be measured as the conditional
standard deviation of a one-step-ahead forecast error of the change in
oil price. The results show that oil price uncertainty has a positive
and significant effect on food price in South Africa. The responses of
food price to a positive and negative oil price shocks is asymmetric.
Abstract: Stratified double extreme ranked set sampling
(SDERSS) method is introduced and considered for estimating the
population mean. The SDERSS is compared with the simple random
sampling (SRS), stratified ranked set sampling (SRSS) and stratified
simple set sampling (SSRS). It is shown that the SDERSS estimator
is an unbiased of the population mean and more efficient than the
estimators using SRS, SRSS and SSRS when the underlying
distribution of the variable of interest is symmetric or asymmetric.
Abstract: In this paper, the melting of a semi-infinite body as a
result of a moving laser beam has been studied. Because the Fourier
heat transfer equation at short times and large dimensions does not
have sufficient accuracy; a non-Fourier form of heat transfer
equation has been used. Due to the fact that the beam is moving in x
direction, the temperature distribution and the melting pool shape are
not asymmetric. As a result, the problem is a transient threedimensional
problem. Therefore, thermophysical properties such as
heat conductivity coefficient, density and heat capacity are functions
of temperature and material states. The enthalpy technique, used for
the solution of phase change problems, has been used in an explicit
finite volume form for the hyperbolic heat transfer equation. This
technique has been used to calculate the transient temperature
distribution in the semi-infinite body and the growth rate of the melt
pool. In order to validate the numerical results, comparisons were
made with experimental data. Finally, the results of this paper were
compared with similar problem that has used the Fourier theory. The
comparison shows the influence of infinite speed of heat propagation
in Fourier theory on the temperature distribution and the melt pool
size.
Abstract: Threedimensional numerical simulations are conducted on a full scale CANDU Moderator and Transient variations of the temperature and velocity distributions inside the tank are determined. The results show that the flow and temperature distributions inside the moderator tank are three dimensional and no symmetry plane can be identified.Competition between the upward moving buoyancy driven flows and the downward moving momentum driven flows, results in the formation of circulation zones. The moderator tank operates in the buoyancy driven mode and any small disturbances in the flow or temperature makes the system unstable and asymmetric. Different types of temperature fluctuations are noted inside the tank: (i) large amplitude are at the boundaries between the hot and cold (ii) low amplitude are in the core of the tank (iii) high frequency fluctuations are in the regions with high velocities and (iv) low frequency fluctuations are in the regions with lower velocities.
Abstract: This research is aimed to compare the percentages of correct classification of Empirical Bayes method (EB) to Classical method when data are constructed as near normal, short-tailed and long-tailed symmetric, short-tailed and long-tailed asymmetric. The study is performed using conjugate prior, normal distribution with known mean and unknown variance. The estimated hyper-parameters obtained from EB method are replaced in the posterior predictive probability and used to predict new observations. Data are generated, consisting of training set and test set with the sample sizes 100, 200 and 500 for the binary classification. The results showed that EB method exhibited an improved performance over Classical method in all situations under study.