Quantifying Uncertainties in an Archetype-Based Building Stock Energy Model by Use of Individual Building Models

Focus on reducing energy consumption in existing buildings at large scale, e.g. in cities or countries, has been increasing in recent years. In order to reduce energy consumption in existing buildings, political incentive schemes are put in place and large scale investments are made by utility companies. Prioritising these investments requires a comprehensive overview of the energy consumption in the existing building stock, as well as potential energy-savings. However, a building stock comprises thousands of buildings with different characteristics making it difficult to model energy consumption accurately. Moreover, the complexity of the building stock makes it difficult to convey model results to policymakers and other stakeholders. In order to manage the complexity of the building stock, building archetypes are often employed in building stock energy models (BSEMs). Building archetypes are formed by segmenting the building stock according to specific characteristics. Segmenting the building stock according to building type and building age is common, among other things because this information is often easily available. This segmentation makes it easy to convey results to non-experts. However, using a single archetypical building to represent all buildings in a segment of the building stock is associated with loss of detail. Thermal characteristics are aggregated while other characteristics, which could affect the energy efficiency of a building, are disregarded. Thus, using a simplified representation of the building stock could come at the expense of the accuracy of the model. The present study evaluates the accuracy of a conventional archetype-based BSEM that segments the building stock according to building type- and age. The accuracy is evaluated in terms of the archetypes’ ability to accurately emulate the average energy demands of the corresponding buildings they were meant to represent. This is done for the buildings’ energy demands as a whole as well as for relevant sub-demands. Both are evaluated in relation to the type- and the age of the building. This should provide researchers, who use archetypes in BSEMs, with an indication of the expected accuracy of the conventional archetype model, as well as the accuracy lost in specific parts of the calculation, due to use of the archetype method.

Determination of the Quality of the Machined Surface Using Fuzzy Logic

This paper deals with measuring and modelling of the quality of the machined surface of the metal machining process. The average surface roughness (Ra) which represents the quality of the machined part was measured during the dry turning of the AISI 4140 steel. A large number of factors with the unknown relations among them influences this parameter, and that is why mathematical modelling is extremely complicated. Different values of cutting speed, feed rate, depth of cut (cutting regime) and workpiece hardness causes different surface roughness values. Modelling with soft computing techniques may be very useful in such cases. This paper presents the usage of the fuzzy logic-based system for determining metal machining process parameter in order to find the proper values of cutting regimes.

Automotive Emotions: An Investigation of Their Natures, Frequencies of Occurrence and Causes

Technological and sociological developments in the automotive sector are shifting the focus of design towards developing a better understanding of driver needs, desires and emotions. Human centred design methods are being more frequently applied to automotive research, including the use of systems to detect human emotions in real-time. One method for a non-contact measurement of emotion with low intrusiveness is Facial-Expression Analysis (FEA). This paper describes a research study investigating emotional responses of 22 participants in a naturalistic driving environment by applying a multi-method approach. The research explored the possibility to investigate emotional responses and their frequencies during naturalistic driving through real-time FEA. Observational analysis was conducted to assign causes to the collected emotional responses. In total, 730 emotional responses were measured in the collective study time of 440 minutes. Causes were assigned to 92% of the measured emotional responses. This research establishes and validates a methodology for the study of emotions and their causes in the driving environment through which systems and factors causing positive and negative emotional effects can be identified.

An Efficient Motion Recognition System Based on LMA Technique and a Discrete Hidden Markov Model

Human motion recognition has been extensively increased in recent years due to its importance in a wide range of applications, such as human-computer interaction, intelligent surveillance, augmented reality, content-based video compression and retrieval, etc. However, it is still regarded as a challenging task especially in realistic scenarios. It can be seen as a general machine learning problem which requires an effective human motion representation and an efficient learning method. In this work, we introduce a descriptor based on Laban Movement Analysis technique, a formal and universal language for human movement, to capture both quantitative and qualitative aspects of movement. We use Discrete Hidden Markov Model (DHMM) for training and classification motions. We improve the classification algorithm by proposing two DHMMs for each motion class to process the motion sequence in two different directions, forward and backward. Such modification allows avoiding the misclassification that can happen when recognizing similar motions. Two experiments are conducted. In the first one, we evaluate our method on a public dataset, the Microsoft Research Cambridge-12 Kinect gesture data set (MSRC-12) which is a widely used dataset for evaluating action/gesture recognition methods. In the second experiment, we build a dataset composed of 10 gestures(Introduce yourself, waving, Dance, move, turn left, turn right, stop, sit down, increase velocity, decrease velocity) performed by 20 persons. The evaluation of the system includes testing the efficiency of our descriptor vector based on LMA with basic DHMM method and comparing the recognition results of the modified DHMM with the original one. Experiment results demonstrate that our method outperforms most of existing methods that used the MSRC-12 dataset, and a near perfect classification rate in our dataset.

Exploration of an Environmentally Friendly Form of City Development Combined with a River: An Example of a Four-Dimensional Analysis Based on the Expansion of the City of Jinan across the Yellow River

In order to study the topic of cities crossing rivers, a Four-Dimensional Analysis Method consisting of timeline, X-axis, Y-axis, and Z-axis is proposed. Policies, plans, and their implications are summarized and researched along with the timeline. The X-axis is the direction which is parallel to the river. The research area was chosen because of its important connection function. It is proposed that more surface water network should be built because of the ecological orientation of the research area. And the analysis of groundwater makes it for sure that the proposal is feasible. After the blue water network is settled, the green landscape network which is surrounded by it could be planned. The direction which is transversal to the river (Y-axis) should run through the transportation axis so that the urban texture could stretch in an ecological way. Therefore, it is suggested that the work of the planning bureau and river bureau should be coordinated. The Z-axis research is on the section view of the river, especially on the Yellow River’s special feature of being a perched river. Based on water control safety demands, river parks could be constructed on the embankment buffer zone, whereas many kinds of ornamental trees could be used to build the buffer zone. City Crossing River is a typical case where we make use of landscaping to build a symbiotic relationship between the urban landscape architecture and the environment. The local environment should be respected in the process of city expansion. The planning order of "Benefit- Flood Control Safety" should be replaced by "Flood Control Safety - Landscape Architecture- People - Benefit".

Continuous Plug Flow and Discrete Particle Phase Coupling Using Triangular Parcels

Various processes are modelled using a discrete phase, where particles are seeded from a source. Such particles can represent liquid water droplets, which are affecting the continuous phase by exchanging thermal energy, momentum, species etc. Discrete phases are typically modelled using parcel, which represents a collection of particles, which share properties such as temperature, velocity etc. When coupling the phases, the exchange rates are integrated over the cell, in which the parcel is located. This can cause spikes and fluctuating exchange rates. This paper presents an alternative method of coupling a discrete and a continuous plug flow phase. This is done using triangular parcels, which span between nodes following the dynamics of single droplets. Thus, the triangular parcels are propagated using the corner nodes. At each time step, the exchange rates are spatially integrated over the surface of the triangular parcels, which yields a smooth continuous exchange rate to the continuous phase. The results shows that the method is more stable, converges slightly faster and yields smooth exchange rates compared with the steam tube approach. However, the computational requirements are about five times greater, so the applicability of the alternative method should be limited to processes, where the exchange rates are important. The overall balances of the exchanged properties did not change significantly using the new approach.

The Effect of Critical Activity on Critical Path and Project Duration in Precedence Diagram Method

The additional relationships i.e., start-to-start, finish-to-finish, and start-to-finish, between activity in Precedence Diagram Method (PDM) provides a more flexible schedule than traditional Critical Path Method (CPM). But, changing the duration of critical activities in the PDM network will have an anomalous effect on the critical path and the project completion date. In this study, we classified the critical activities in two groups i.e., 1. activity on single critical path and 2. activity on multi-critical paths, and six classes i.e., normal, reverse, neutral, perverse, decrease-reverse and increase-normal, based on their effects on project duration in PDM. Furthermore, we determined the maximum float of time by which the duration each type of critical activities can be changed without effecting the project duration. This study would help the project manager to clearly understand the behavior of each critical activity on critical path, and he/she would be able to change the project duration by shortening or lengthening activities based on project budget and project deadline.

Mechanical Investigation Approach to Optimize the High-Velocity Oxygen Fuel Fe-Based Amorphous Coatings Reinforced by B4C Nanoparticles

Fe-based amorphous feedstock powders are used as the matrix into which various ratios of hard B4C nanoparticles (0, 5, 10, 15, 20 vol.%) as reinforcing agents were prepared using a planetary high-energy mechanical milling. The ball-milled nanocomposite feedstock powders were also sprayed by means of high-velocity oxygen fuel (HVOF) technique. The characteristics of the powder particles and the prepared coating depending on their microstructures and nanohardness were examined in detail using nanoindentation tester. The results showed that the formation of the Fe-based amorphous phase was noticed over the course of high-energy ball milling. It is interesting to note that the nanocomposite coating is divided into two regions, namely, a full amorphous phase region and homogeneous dispersion of B4C nanoparticles with a scale of 10–50 nm in a residual amorphous matrix. As the B4C content increases, the nanohardness of the composite coatings increases, but the fracture toughness begins to decrease at the B4C content higher than 20 vol.%. The optimal mechanical properties are obtained with 15 vol.% B4C due to the suitable content and uniform distribution of nanoparticles. Consequently, the changes in mechanical properties of the coatings were attributed to the changes in the brittle to ductile transition by adding B4C nanoparticles.

Blood Glucose Level Measurement from Breath Analysis

The constant monitoring of blood glucose level is necessary for maintaining health of patients and to alert medical specialists to take preemptive measures before the onset of any complication as a result of diabetes. The current clinical monitoring of blood glucose uses invasive methods repeatedly which are uncomfortable and may result in infections in diabetic patients. Several attempts have been made to develop non-invasive techniques for blood glucose measurement. In this regard, the existing methods are not reliable and are less accurate. Other approaches claiming high accuracy have not been tested on extended dataset, and thus, results are not statistically significant. It is a well-known fact that acetone concentration in breath has a direct relation with blood glucose level. In this paper, we have developed the first of its kind, reliable and high accuracy breath analyzer for non-invasive blood glucose measurement. The acetone concentration in breath was measured using MQ 138 sensor in the samples collected from local hospitals in Pakistan involving one hundred patients. The blood glucose levels of these patients are determined using conventional invasive clinical method. We propose a linear regression classifier that is trained to map breath acetone level to the collected blood glucose level achieving high accuracy.

Q-Map: Clinical Concept Mining from Clinical Documents

Over the past decade, there has been a steep rise in the data-driven analysis in major areas of medicine, such as clinical decision support system, survival analysis, patient similarity analysis, image analytics etc. Most of the data in the field are well-structured and available in numerical or categorical formats which can be used for experiments directly. But on the opposite end of the spectrum, there exists a wide expanse of data that is intractable for direct analysis owing to its unstructured nature which can be found in the form of discharge summaries, clinical notes, procedural notes which are in human written narrative format and neither have any relational model nor any standard grammatical structure. An important step in the utilization of these texts for such studies is to transform and process the data to retrieve structured information from the haystack of irrelevant data using information retrieval and data mining techniques. To address this problem, the authors present Q-Map in this paper, which is a simple yet robust system that can sift through massive datasets with unregulated formats to retrieve structured information aggressively and efficiently. It is backed by an effective mining technique which is based on a string matching algorithm that is indexed on curated knowledge sources, that is both fast and configurable. The authors also briefly examine its comparative performance with MetaMap, one of the most reputed tools for medical concepts retrieval and present the advantages the former displays over the latter.

The Effect of Four-Week Resistance Exercise along with Milk Consumption on NT-proBNP and Plasma Troponin I

The aim of this study is to investigate four-week resistance exercise and milk supplement on NT-proBNP and plasma troponin I of male students. Concerning the methodology of the study, 21 senior high school students of Ardebil city were selected. The selected subjects were randomly shared in three groups of control, exercise- water and exercise- milk. The exercise program includes resistance exercise for a big muscle group. The subjects of control group rested during the study and did not participate in any training. The subjects of exercise- water experimental group immediately received 400 cc water after exercise and exercise- milk group immediately received 400 cc low fat milk. Control-water groups consumed the same amount of water. 48 hours before and after the last exercise session, the blood sample of the subjects were taken for measuring the variables. NT-proBNP and Troponin I concentrations were measured by ELISA. For data analysis, one-way variance analysis test, correlated t-test and Bonferroni post hoc test were used. The significant difference of p ≤ 0.05 was accepted. Resistance training along with milk consumption leads to increase of plasma NT-proBNP, however; this increase has not reached the significant level. Furthermore, meaningful increase was observed in plasma NT–proBNP in exercise group between pretest and posttest values. Furthermore, no meaningful difference was observed between groups in terms of Troponin I after milk consumption. It seems that endurance exercises lead to change in the structure of heart muscle and is along with an increase of NT-proBNP. Furthermore, there is the possibility that milk consumption can lead to release of heart troponin I. The mechanism through which protein supplements have been put on heart troponin I is unknown and requires more research.

Comparing Field Displacement History with Numerical Results to Estimate Geotechnical Parameters: Case Study of Arash-Esfandiar-Niayesh under Passing Tunnel, 2.5 Traffic Lane Tunnel, Tehran, Iran

Underground structures are of those structures that have uncertainty in design procedures. That is due to the complexity of soil condition around. Under passing tunnels are also such affected structures. Despite geotechnical site investigations, lots of uncertainties exist in soil properties due to unknown events. As results, it possibly causes conflicting settlements in numerical analysis with recorded values in the project. This paper aims to report a case study on a specific under passing tunnel constructed by New Austrian Tunnelling Method in Iran. The intended tunnel has an overburden of about 11.3m, the height of 12.2m and, the width of 14.4m with 2.5 traffic lane. The numerical modeling was developed by a 2D finite element program (PLAXIS Version 8). Comparing displacement histories at the ground surface during the entire installation of initial lining, the estimated surface settlement was about four times the field recorded one, which indicates that some local unknown events affect that value. Also, the displacement ratios were in a big difference between the numerical and field data. Consequently, running several numerical back analyses using laboratory and field tests data, the geotechnical parameters were accurately revised to match with the obtained monitoring data. Finally, it was found that usually the values of soil parameters are conservatively low-estimated up to 40 percent by typical engineering judgment. Additionally, it could be attributed to inappropriate constitutive models applied for the specific soil condition.

FRP Bars Spacing Effect on Numerical Thermal Deformations in Concrete Beams under High Temperatures

5 In order to eradicate the degradation of reinforced concrete structures due to the steel corrosion, professionals in constructions suggest using fiber reinforced polymers (FRP) for their excellent properties. Nevertheless, high temperatures may affect the bond between FRP bar and concrete, and consequently the serviceability of FRP-reinforced concrete structures. This paper presents a nonlinear numerical investigation using ADINA software to investigate the effect of the spacing between glass FRP (GFRP) bars embedded in concrete on circumferential thermal deformations and the distribution of radial thermal cracks in reinforced concrete beams submitted to high temperature variations up to 60 °C for asymmetrical problems. The thermal deformations predicted from nonlinear finite elements model, at the FRP bar/concrete interface and at the external surface of concrete cover, were established as a function of the ratio of concrete cover thickness to FRP bar diameter (c/db) and the ratio of spacing between FRP bars in concrete to FRP bar diameter (e/db). Numerical results show that the circumferential thermal deformations at the external surface of concrete cover are linear until cracking thermal load varied from 32 to 55 °C corresponding to the ratio of e/db varied from 1.3 to 2.3, respectively. However, for ratios e/db >2.3 and c/db >1.6, the thermal deformations at the external surface of concrete cover exhibit linear behavior without any cracks observed on the specified surface. The numerical results are compared to those obtained from analytical models validated by experimental tests.

Seismic Analysis of Structurally Hybrid Wind Mill Tower

The tall windmill towers are designed as monopole tower or lattice tower. In the present research, a 125-meter high hybrid tower which is a combination of lattice and monopole type is proposed. The response of hybrid tower is compared with conventional monopole tower. The towers were analyzed in finite element method software considering nonlinear seismic time history load. The synthetic seismic time history for different soil is derived using the SeismoARTIF software. From the present research, it is concluded that, in the hybrid tower, we are not getting resonance condition. The base shear is less in hybrid tower compared to monopole tower for different soil conditions.

A Study about the Distribution of the Spanning Ratios of Yao Graphs

A critical problem in wireless sensor networks is limited battery and memory of nodes. Therefore, each node in the network could maintain only a subset of its neighbors to communicate with. This will increase the battery usage in the network because each packet should take more hops to reach its destination. In order to tackle these problems, spanner graphs are defined. Since each node has a small degree in a spanner graph and the distance in the graph is not much greater than its actual geographical distance, spanner graphs are suitable candidates to be used for the topology of a wireless sensor network. In this paper, we study Yao graphs and their behavior for a randomly selected set of points. We generate several random point sets and compare the properties of their Yao graphs with the complete graph. Based on our data sets, we obtain several charts demonstrating how Yao graphs behave for a set of randomly chosen point set. As the results show, the stretch factor of a Yao graph follows a normal distribution. Furthermore, the stretch factor is in average far less than the worst case stretch factor proved for Yao graphs in previous results. Furthermore, we use Yao graph for a realistic point set and study its stretch factor in real world.

Positive Solutions for Systems of Nonlinear Third-Order Differential Equations with p-Laplacian

In this paper, by constructing a special set and utilizing fixed point theory, we study the existence and multiplicity of the positive solutions for systems of nonlinear third-order differential equations with p-laplacian, which improve and generalize the result of related paper.

Pilot Induced Oscillations Adaptive Suppression in Fly-By-Wire Systems

The present work proposes the development of an adaptive control system which enables the suppression of Pilot Induced Oscillations (PIO) in Digital Fly-By-Wire (DFBW) aircrafts. The proposed system consists of a Modified Model Reference Adaptive Control (M-MRAC) integrated with the Gain Scheduling technique. The PIO oscillations are detected using a Real Time Oscillation Verifier (ROVER) algorithm, which then enables the system to switch between two reference models; one in PIO condition, with low proneness to the phenomenon and another one in normal condition, with high (or medium) proneness. The reference models are defined in a closed loop condition using the Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) control methodology for Multiple-Input-Multiple-Output (MIMO) systems. The implemented algorithms are simulated in software implementations with state space models and commercial flight simulators as the controlled elements and with pilot dynamics models. A sequence of pitch angles is considered as the reference signal, named as Synthetic Task (Syntask), which must be tracked by the pilot models. The initial outcomes show that the proposed system can detect and suppress (or mitigate) the PIO oscillations in real time before it reaches high amplitudes.

Statistical and Land Planning Study of Tourist Arrivals in Greece during 2005-2016

During the last 10 years, in spite of the economic crisis, the number of tourists arriving in Greece has increased, particularly during the tourist season from April to October. In this paper, the number of annual tourist arrivals is studied to explore their preferences with regard to the month of travel, the selected destinations, as well the amount of money spent. The collected data are processed with statistical methods, yielding numerical and graphical results. From the computation of statistical parameters and the forecasting with exponential smoothing, useful conclusions are arrived at that can be used by the Greek tourism authorities, as well as by tourist organizations, for planning purposes for the coming years. The results of this paper and the computed forecast can also be used for decision making by private tourist enterprises that are investing in Greece. With regard to the statistical methods, the method of Simple Exponential Smoothing of time series of data is employed. The search for a best forecast for 2017 and 2018 provides the value of the smoothing coefficient. For all statistical computations and graphics Microsoft Excel is used.

Numerical Approach to a Mathematical Modeling of Bioconvection Due to Gyrotactic Micro-Organisms over a Nonlinear Inclined Stretching Sheet

The water-based bioconvection of a nanofluid containing motile gyrotactic micro-organisms over nonlinear inclined stretching sheet has been investigated. The governing nonlinear boundary layer equations of the model are reduced to a system of ordinary differential equations via Oberbeck-Boussinesq approximation and similarity transformations. Further, the modified set of equations with associated boundary conditions are solved using Finite Element Method. The impact of various pertinent parameters on the velocity, temperature, nanoparticles concentration, density of motile micro-organisms profiles are obtained and analyzed in details. The results show that with the increase in angle of inclination δ, velocity decreases while temperature, nanoparticles concentration, a density of motile micro-organisms increases. Additionally, the skin friction coefficient, Nusselt number, Sherwood number, density number are computed for various thermophysical parameters. It is noticed that increasing Brownian motion and thermophoresis parameter leads to an increase in temperature of fluid which results in a reduction in Nusselt number. On the contrary, Sherwood number rises with an increase in Brownian motion and thermophoresis parameter. The findings have been validated by comparing the results of special cases with existing studies.

Time Overrun in Pre-Construction Planning Phase of Construction Projects

Construction industry plays a significant role in fulfilling the major requirements of the human being. It is one of the major constituents of every developed country. Although the construction industry of both the developing and developed countries encompasses a major part of the economy, and millions of rupees are utilized every year on various kinds of construction projects. But, this industry is facing numerous hurdles in terms of its budget and timely completion. Construction projects generally consist of several phases like planning, designing, execution, and finishing. This research study aims to determine the significant factors of time overrun in pre-construction planning (PCP) phase of construction projects in Pakistan. Questionnaires were distributed by various means and responses of respondents were compiled and collected data were then analyzed through a statistical technique using SPSS version 24. Major causes of time overrun in pre-construction planning phase; which is an extremely important phase of construction projects, were revealed. The research conclusion will provide a pathway for stakeholders to pay attention to the mentioned causes to overcome the major issue of time overrun.