A Review on Technology Forecasting Methods and Their Application Area

Technology changes have been acknowledged as a critical factor in determining competitiveness of organization. Under such environment, the right anticipation of technology change has been of huge importance in strategic planning. To monitor technology change, technology forecasting (TF) is frequently utilized. In academic perspective, TF has received great attention for a long time. However, few researches have been conducted to provide overview of the TF literature. Even though some studies deals with review of TF research, they generally focused on type and characteristics of various TF, so hardly provides information about patterns of TF research and which TF method is used in certain technology industry. Accordingly, this study profile developments in and patterns of scholarly research in TF over time. Also, this study investigates which technology industries have used certain TF method and identifies their relationships. This study will help in understanding TF research trend and their application area.

Photomechanical Analysis of Wooden Testing Bodies under Flexural Loadings

Application of wood in rural construction is diffused all around the world since remote times. However, its inclusion in structural design deserves strong support from broad knowledge of material properties. The pertinent literature reveals the application of optical methods in determining the complete field displacement on bodies exhibiting regular as well as irregular surfaces. The use of moiré techniques in experimental mechanics consists in analyzing the patterns generated on the body surface before and after deformation. The objective of this research work is to study the qualitative deformation behavior of wooden testing specimens under specific loading situations. The experiment setup follows the literature description of shadow moiré methods. Results indicate strong anisotropy influence of the generated displacement field. Important qualitative as well as quantitative stress and strain distribution were obtained wooden members which are applicable to rural constructions.

Wedding in Thailand: Traditional and Business

This study is purely qualitative. The objectives of this study can be identified as two main factors: traditionally explanation and economically studying. The study of weddings, both in traditional beauty and the aggressively strong competitive in the wedding business market has limited population of the study only Thailand internal wedding consumers. Focus group with the new marriage couple and in-depth interview with fully experiences wedding businessman were used. Traditionally, Thai weddings are very various; therefore, the recent patterns were briefly concluded to be processes of traditional Thai wedding will be revealed and explained then give more details in the formal procedures.  Economically, weddings business are related to many types of businesses from catering business, hospitality and tourism business, pre-wedding photography, and the complete full-serviced wedding organizer for examples. The situations, changes and obstacles of the wedding related business will be discussed.

M2LGP: Mining Multiple Level Gradual Patterns

Gradual patterns have been studied for many years as they contain precious information. They have been integrated in many expert systems and rule-based systems, for instance to reason on knowledge such as “the greater the number of turns, the greater the number of car crashes”. In many cases, this knowledge has been considered as a rule “the greater the number of turns → the greater the number of car crashes” Historically, works have thus been focused on the representation of such rules, studying how implication could be defined, especially fuzzy implication. These rules were defined by experts who were in charge to describe the systems they were working on in order to turn them to operate automatically. More recently, approaches have been proposed in order to mine databases for automatically discovering such knowledge. Several approaches have been studied, the main scientific topics being: how to determine what is an relevant gradual pattern, and how to discover them as efficiently as possible (in terms of both memory and CPU usage). However, in some cases, end-users are not interested in raw level knowledge, and are rather interested in trends. Moreover, it may be the case that no relevant pattern can be discovered at a low level of granularity (e.g. city), whereas some can be discovered at a higher level (e.g. county). In this paper, we thus extend gradual pattern approaches in order to consider multiple level gradual patterns. For this purpose, we consider two aggregation policies, namely horizontal and vertical.

The Performance Improvement of Automatic Modulation Recognition Using Simple Feature Manipulation, Analysis of the HOS, and Voted Decision

The use of High Order Statistics (HOS) analysis is expected to provide so many candidates of features that can be selected for pattern recognition. More candidates of the feature can be extracted using simple manipulation through a specific mathematical function prior to the HOS analysis. Feature extraction method using HOS analysis combined with Difference to the Nth-Power manipulation has been examined in application for Automatic Modulation Recognition (AMR) to perform scheme recognition of three digital modulation signal, i.e. QPSK-16QAM-64QAM in the AWGN transmission channel. The simulation results is reported when the analysis of HOS up to order-12 and the manipulation of Difference to the Nth-Power up to N = 4. The obtained accuracy rate of AMR using the method of Simple Decision obtained 90% in SNR > 10 dB in its classifier, while using the method of Voted Decision is 96% in SNR > 2 dB.

Fault Classification of Double Circuit Transmission Line Using Artificial Neural Network

This paper addresses the problems encountered by conventional distance relays when protecting double-circuit transmission lines. The problems arise principally as a result of the mutual coupling between the two circuits under different fault conditions; this mutual coupling is highly nonlinear in nature. An adaptive protection scheme is proposed for such lines based on application of artificial neural network (ANN). ANN has the ability to classify the nonlinear relationship between measured signals by identifying different patterns of the associated signals. One of the key points of the present work is that only current signals measured at local end have been used to detect and classify the faults in the double circuit transmission line with double end infeed. The adaptive protection scheme is tested under a specific fault type, but varying fault location, fault resistance, fault inception angle and with remote end infeed. An improved performance is experienced once the neural network is trained adequately, which performs precisely when faced with different system parameters and conditions. The entire test results clearly show that the fault is detected and classified within a quarter cycle; thus the proposed adaptive protection technique is well suited for double circuit transmission line fault detection & classification. Results of performance studies show that the proposed neural network-based module can improve the performance of conventional fault selection algorithms.

Knowledge Mining in Web-based Learning Environments

The state of the art in instructional design for computer-assisted learning has been strongly influenced by advances in information technology, Internet and Web-based systems. The emphasis of educational systems has shifted from training to learning. The course delivered has also been changed from large inflexible content to sequential small chunks of learning objects. The concepts of learning objects together with the advanced technologies of Web and communications support the reusability, interoperability, and accessibility design criteria currently exploited by most learning systems. These concepts enable just-in-time learning. We propose to extend theses design criteria further to include the learnability concept that will help adapting content to the needs of learners. The learnability concept offers a better personalization leading to the creation and delivery of course content more appropriate to performance and interest of each learner. In this paper we present a new framework of learning environments containing knowledge discovery as a tool to automatically learn patterns of learning behavior from learners' profiles and history.

Named Entity Recognition using Support Vector Machine: A Language Independent Approach

Named Entity Recognition (NER) aims to classify each word of a document into predefined target named entity classes and is now-a-days considered to be fundamental for many Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks such as information retrieval, machine translation, information extraction, question answering systems and others. This paper reports about the development of a NER system for Bengali and Hindi using Support Vector Machine (SVM). Though this state of the art machine learning technique has been widely applied to NER in several well-studied languages, the use of this technique to Indian languages (ILs) is very new. The system makes use of the different contextual information of the words along with the variety of features that are helpful in predicting the four different named (NE) classes, such as Person name, Location name, Organization name and Miscellaneous name. We have used the annotated corpora of 122,467 tokens of Bengali and 502,974 tokens of Hindi tagged with the twelve different NE classes 1, defined as part of the IJCNLP-08 NER Shared Task for South and South East Asian Languages (SSEAL) 2. In addition, we have manually annotated 150K wordforms of the Bengali news corpus, developed from the web-archive of a leading Bengali newspaper. We have also developed an unsupervised algorithm in order to generate the lexical context patterns from a part of the unlabeled Bengali news corpus. Lexical patterns have been used as the features of SVM in order to improve the system performance. The NER system has been tested with the gold standard test sets of 35K, and 60K tokens for Bengali, and Hindi, respectively. Evaluation results have demonstrated the recall, precision, and f-score values of 88.61%, 80.12%, and 84.15%, respectively, for Bengali and 80.23%, 74.34%, and 77.17%, respectively, for Hindi. Results show the improvement in the f-score by 5.13% with the use of context patterns. Statistical analysis, ANOVA is also performed to compare the performance of the proposed NER system with that of the existing HMM based system for both the languages.

A Software Framework for Predicting Oil-Palm Yield from Climate Data

Intelligent systems based on machine learning techniques, such as classification, clustering, are gaining wide spread popularity in real world applications. This paper presents work on developing a software system for predicting crop yield, for example oil-palm yield, from climate and plantation data. At the core of our system is a method for unsupervised partitioning of data for finding spatio-temporal patterns in climate data using kernel methods which offer strength to deal with complex data. This work gets inspiration from the notion that a non-linear data transformation into some high dimensional feature space increases the possibility of linear separability of the patterns in the transformed space. Therefore, it simplifies exploration of the associated structure in the data. Kernel methods implicitly perform a non-linear mapping of the input data into a high dimensional feature space by replacing the inner products with an appropriate positive definite function. In this paper we present a robust weighted kernel k-means algorithm incorporating spatial constraints for clustering the data. The proposed algorithm can effectively handle noise, outliers and auto-correlation in the spatial data, for effective and efficient data analysis by exploring patterns and structures in the data, and thus can be used for predicting oil-palm yield by analyzing various factors affecting the yield.

Long-term Flexural Behavior of HSC Beams

This article presents the analysis of experimental values regarding cracking pattern, specific strains and deformability for reinforced high strength concrete beams. The beams have the concrete class C80/95 and a longitudinal reinforcement ratio of 2.01%, respectively 3.39%. The elements were subjected to flexure under static short-term and long-term loading. The experimental values are compared with calculation values using the design relationships according to Eurocode 2.

Vocal Communication in Sooty-headed Bulbul; Pycnonotus aurigaster

Studies of vocal communication in Sooty-headed Bulbul were carried out from January to December 2011. Vocal recordings and behavioral observations were made in their natural habitats at some localities of Lampang, Thailand. After editing, cuts of high quality recordings were analyzed with the help of Avisoft- SASLab Pro (version 4.40) software. More than one thousand element repertoires in five groups were found within two vocal structures. The two structures were short sounds with single element and phrases composed of elements, the frequency ranged from 1-10 kHz. Most phrases were composed of 2 to 5 elements that were often dissimilar in structure, however, these phrases were not as complex as song phrases. The elements and phrases were combined to form many patterns. The species used ten types of calls; i.e. alert, alarm, aggressive, begging, contact, courtship, distress, exciting, flying and invitation. Alert and contact calls were used more frequently than other calls. Aggressive, alarm and distress calls could be used for interspecific communication among some other bird species in the same habitats.

A Digital Media e-Learning Training Strategy for Healthcare Employees: Cost effective Distance Learning by Collaborative offline / online Engagement and Assessment

Within the healthcare system, training and continued professional development although essential, can be effected by cost and logistical restraints due to the nature of healthcare provision e.g employee shift patterns, access to expertise, cost factors in releasing staff to attend training etc. The use of multimedia technology for the development of e-learning applications is also a major cost consideration for healthcare management staff, and this type of media whether optical or on line requires careful planning in order to remain inclusive of all staff with potentially varied access to multimedia computing. This paper discusses a project in which the use of DVD authoring technology has been successfully implemented to meet the needs of distance learning and user considerations, and is based on film production techniques and reduced product turnaround deadlines.

Effect of Heat-Moisture Treatment on the Formation and Properties of Resistant Starches From Mung Bean (Phaseolus radiatus) Starches

Mung bean starches were subjected to heat-moisture treatment (HMT) by different moisture contents (15%, 20%, 25%, 30% and 35%) at 120Ôäâ for 12h. The impact on the yields of resistant starch (RS), microstructure, physicochemical and functional properties was investigated. Compared to native starch, the RS content of heat-moisture treated starches increased significantly. The RS level of HMT-20 was the highest of all the starches. Birefringence was displayed clear at the center of native starch. For HMT starches, pronounced birefringence was exhibited on the periphery of starch granules; however, birefringence disappeared at the centre of some starch granules. The shape of HMT starches hadn-t been changed and the integrity of starch granules was preserved for all the conditions. Concavity could be observed on HMT starches under scanning electronic microscopy. After HMT, apparent amylose contents were increased and starch macromolecule was degraded in comparison with those of native starch. There was a reduction in swelling power on HMT starches, but the solubility of HMT starches was higher than that of native starch. Both of native and HMT starches showed A-type X-ray diffraction pattern. Furthermore, there is a higher intensity at the peak of 15.0 and 22.9 Å than those of native starch.

Energy Consumption Analysis of Design Patterns

The importance of low power consumption is widely acknowledged due to the increasing use of portable devices, which require minimizing the consumption of energy. Energy dissipation is heavily dependent on the software used in the system. Applying design patterns in object-oriented designs is a common practice nowadays. In this paper we analyze six design patterns and explore the effect of them on energy consumption and performance.

In Silico Analysis of Pax6 Interacting Proteins Indicates Missing Molecular Links in Development of Brain and Associated Disease

The PAX6, a transcription factor, is essential for the morphogenesis of the eyes, brain, pituitary and pancreatic islets. In rodents, the loss of Pax6 function leads to central nervous system defects, anophthalmia, and nasal hypoplasia. The haplo-insufficiency of Pax6 causes microphthalmia, aggression and other behavioral abnormalities. It is also required in brain patterning and neuronal plasticity. In human, heterozygous mutation of Pax6 causes loss of iris [aniridia], mental retardation and glucose intolerance. The 3- deletion in Pax6 leads to autism and aniridia. The phenotypes are variable in peneterance and expressivity. However, mechanism of function and interaction of PAX6 with other proteins during development and associated disease are not clear. It is intended to explore interactors of PAX6 to elucidated biology of PAX6 function in the tissues where it is expressed and also in the central regulatory pathway. This report describes In-silico approaches to explore interacting proteins of PAX6. The models show several possible proteins interacting with PAX6 like MITF, SIX3, SOX2, SOX3, IPO13, TRIM, and OGT. Since the Pax6 is a critical transcriptional regulator and master control gene of eye and brain development it might be interacting with other protein involved in morphogenesis [TGIF, TGF, Ras etc]. It is also presumed that matricelluar proteins [SPARC, thrombospondin-1 and osteonectin etc] are likely to interact during transport and processing of PAX6 and are somewhere its cascade. The proteins involved in cell survival and cell proliferation can also not be ignored.

Graphical Password Security Evaluation by Fuzzy AHP

In today's day and age, one of the important topics in information security is authentication. There are several alternatives to text-based authentication of which includes Graphical Password (GP) or Graphical User Authentication (GUA). These methods stems from the fact that humans recognized and remembers images better than alphanumerical text characters. This paper will focus on the security aspect of GP algorithms and what most researchers have been working on trying to define these security features and attributes. The goal of this study is to develop a fuzzy decision model that allows automatic selection of available GP algorithms by taking into considerations the subjective judgments of the decision makers who are more than 50 postgraduate students of computer science. The approach that is being proposed is based on the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) which determines the criteria weight as a linear formula.

The Influence of using Compost Leachate on Soil Reaction

In the area where the high quality water is not available, unconventional water sources are used to irrigate. Household leachate is one of the sources which are used in dry and semi dry areas in order to water the barer trees and plants. It meets the plants needs and also has some effects on the soil, but at the same time it might cause some problems as well. This study in order to evaluate the effect of using Compost leachate on the density of soil iron in form of a statistical pattern called ''Split Plot'' by using two main treatments, one subsidiary treatment and three repetitions of the pattern in a three month period. The main N treatments include: irrigation using well water as a blank treatments and the main I treatments include: irrigation using leachate and well water concurrently. Some subsidiary treatments were DI (Drop Irrigation) and SDI (Sub Drop Irrigation). Then in the established plots, 36 biannual pine and cypress shrubs were randomly grown. Two months later the treatment begins. The results revealed that there was a significant variation between the main treatment and the instance regarding pH decline in the soil which was related to the amount of leachate injected into the soil. After some time and using leachate the pH level fell, as much as 0.46 and also increased due to the great amounts of leachate. The underneath drop irrigation ends in better results than sub drop irrigation since it keeps the soil texture fixed.

Rapid Urbanization and the Challenge of SustainableUrban Development in Palestinian Cities

Palestinian cities face the challenges of land scarcity, high population growth rates, rapid urbanization, uneven development and territorial fragmentation. Due to geopolitical constrains and the absence of an effective Palestinian planning institution, urban development in Palestinian cities has not followed any discernable planning scheme. This has led to a number of internal contradictions in the structure of cities, and adversely affected land use, the provision of urban services, and the quality of the living environment. This paper explores these challenges, and the potential that exists for introducing a more sustainable urban development pattern in Palestinian cities. It assesses alternative development approaches with a particular focus on sustainable development, promoting ecodevelopment imperatives, limiting random urbanization, and meeting present and future challenges, including fulfilling the needs of the people and conserving the scarce land and limited natural resources. This paper concludes by offering conceptual proposals and guidelines for promoting sustainable physical development in Palestinian cities.

Negative Selection as a Means of Discovering Unknown Temporal Patterns

The temporal nature of negative selection is an under exploited area. In a negative selection system, newly generated antibodies go through a maturing phase, and the survivors of the phase then wait to be activated by the incoming antigens after certain number of matches. These without having enough matches will age and die, while these with enough matches (i.e., being activated) will become active detectors. A currently active detector may also age and die if it cannot find any match in a pre-defined (lengthy) period of time. Therefore, what matters in a negative selection system is the dynamics of the involved parties in the current time window, not the whole time duration, which may be up to eternity. This property has the potential to define the uniqueness of negative selection in comparison with the other approaches. On the other hand, a negative selection system is only trained with “normal" data samples. It has to learn and discover unknown “abnormal" data patterns on the fly by itself. Consequently, it is more appreciate to utilize negation selection as a system for pattern discovery and recognition rather than just pattern recognition. In this paper, we study the potential of using negative selection in discovering unknown temporal patterns.

Multiple-Level Sequential Pattern Discovery from Customer Transaction Databases

Mining sequential patterns from large customer transaction databases has been recognized as a key research topic in database systems. However, the previous works more focused on mining sequential patterns at a single concept level. In this study, we introduced concept hierarchies into this problem and present several algorithms for discovering multiple-level sequential patterns based on the hierarchies. An experiment was conducted to assess the performance of the proposed algorithms. The performances of the algorithms were measured by the relative time spent on completing the mining tasks on two different datasets. The experimental results showed that the performance depends on the characteristics of the datasets and the pre-defined threshold of minimal support for each level of the concept hierarchy. Based on the experimental results, some suggestions were also given for how to select appropriate algorithm for a certain datasets.