Abstract: Time series models have been used to make predictions of academic enrollments, weather, road accident, casualties and stock prices, etc. Based on the concepts of quartile regression models, we have developed a simple time variant quantile based fuzzy time series forecasting method. The proposed method bases the forecast using prediction of future trend of the data. In place of actual quantiles of the data at each point, we have converted the statistical concept into fuzzy concept by using fuzzy quantiles using fuzzy membership function ensemble. We have given a fuzzy metric to use the trend forecast and calculate the future value. The proposed model is applied for TAIFEX forecasting. It is shown that proposed method work best as compared to other models when compared with respect to model complexity and forecasting accuracy.
Abstract: Precise frequency estimation methods for pulseshaped echoes are a prerequisite to determine the relative velocity between sensor and reflector. Signal frequencies are analysed using three different methods: Fourier Transform, Chirp ZTransform and the MUSIC algorithm. Simulations of echoes are performed varying both the noise level and the number of reflecting points. The superposition of echoes with a random initial phase is found to influence the precision of frequency estimation severely for FFT and MUSIC. The standard deviation of the frequency using FFT is larger than for MUSIC. However, MUSIC is more noise-sensitive. The distorting effect of superpositions is less pronounced in experimental data.
Abstract: MiRNAs participate in gene regulation of translation.
Some studies have investigated the interactions between genes and
intragenic miRNAs. It is important to study the miRNA binding sites
of genes involved in carcinogenesis. RNAHybrid 2.1 and ERNAhybrid
programmes were used to compute the hybridization free
energy of miRNA binding sites. Of these 54 mRNAs, 22.6%, 37.7%,
and 39.7% of miRNA binding sites were present in the 5'UTRs,
CDSs, and 3'UTRs, respectively. The density of the binding sites for
miRNAs in the 5'UTR ranged from 1.6 to 43.2 times and from 1.8 to
8.0 times greater than in the CDS and 3'UTR, respectively. Three
types of miRNA interactions with mRNAs have been revealed: 5'-
dominant canonical, 3'-compensatory, and complementary binding
sites. MiRNAs regulate gene expression, and information on the
interactions between miRNAs and mRNAs could be useful in
molecular medicine. We recommend that newly described sites
undergo validation by experimental investigation.
Abstract: The aim of this paper is to introduce a parametric
distribution model in fatigue life reliability analysis dealing with
variation in material properties. Service loads in terms of responsetime
history signal of Belgian pave were replicated on a multi-axial
spindle coupled road simulator and stress-life method was used to
estimate the fatigue life of automotive stub axle. A PSN curve was
obtained by monotonic tension test and two-parameter Weibull
distribution function was used to acquire the mean life of the
component. A Pearson system was developed to evaluate the fatigue
life reliability by considering stress range intercept and slope of the
PSN curve as random variables. Considering normal distribution of
fatigue strength, it is found that the fatigue life of the stub axle to
have the highest reliability between 10000 – 15000 cycles. Taking
into account the variation of material properties associated with the
size effect, machining and manufacturing conditions, the method
described in this study can be effectively applied in determination of
probability of failure of mass-produced parts.
Abstract: In industry, on of the most important subjects is die
and it's characteristics in which for cutting and forming different
mechanical pieces, various punch and matrix metal die are used.
whereas the common parts which form the main frame die are not
often proportion with pieces and dies therefore using a part as socalled
common part for frames in specified dimension ranges can
decrease the time of designing, occupied space of warehouse and
manufacturing costs. Parts in dies with getting uniform in their shape
and dimension make common parts of dies. Common parts of punch
and matrix metal die are as bolster, guide bush, guide pillar and
shank. In this paper the common parts and effective parameters in
selecting each of them as the primary information are studied,
afterward for selection and design of mechanical parts an
introduction and investigation based on the Mech. Desk. software is
done hence with developing this software can standardize the metal
common parts of punch and matrix. These studies will be so useful
for designer in their designing and also using it has with very much
advantage for manufactures of products in decreasing occupied
spaces by dies.
Abstract: Kazakhstan attaches the great importance to
cooperation with European countries within the framework of
multilateral security organizations such as NATO. Cooperation of
Kazakhstan with the NATO is a prominent aspect of strengthening of
regional security of republic. It covers a wide spectrum of areas, such
as reform of sector of defense and security, military operative
compatibility of armed forces of NATO member-countries and
Kazakhstan, civil emergency planning and scientific cooperation. The
cooperation between Kazakhstan and NATO is based on the mutual
interests of neighboring republics in the region so that the existing
forms of cooperation between Kazakhstan and NATO will not be
negatively perceived both in Asia as well as among CIS countries.
Kazakhstan tailors its participation in the PfP programme through an
annual Individual Partnership Programme, selecting those activities
that will help achieve the goals it has set in the IPAP. Level of
cooperation within the limits of PfP essentially differs on each
republic. Cooperation with Kazakhstan progressed most of all since
has been signed IPAP from the NATO
Abstract: High level and high velocity flood flows are
potentially harmful to bridge piers as evidenced in many toppled
piers, and among them the single-column piers were considered as
the most vulnerable. The flood flow characteristic parameters
including drag coefficient, scouring and vortex shedding are built into
a pier-flood interaction model to investigate structural safety against
flood hazards considering the effects of local scouring, hydrodynamic
forces, and vortex induced resonance vibrations. By extracting the
pier-flood simulation results embedded in a neural networks code,
two cases of pier toppling occurred in typhoon days were reexamined:
(1) a bridge overcome by flash flood near a mountain side;
(2) a bridge washed off in flood across a wide channel near the
estuary. The modeling procedures and simulations are capable of
identifying the probable causes for the tumbled bridge piers during
heavy floods, which include the excessive pier bending moments and
resonance in structural vibrations.
Abstract: Fossil fuels are the major source to meet the world
energy requirements but its rapidly diminishing rate and adverse
effects on our ecological system are of major concern. Renewable
energy utilization is the need of time to meet the future challenges.
Ocean energy is the one of these promising energy resources. Threefourths
of the earth-s surface is covered by the oceans. This enormous
energy resource is contained in the oceans- waters, the air above the
oceans, and the land beneath them. The renewable energy source of
ocean mainly is contained in waves, ocean current and offshore solar
energy. Very fewer efforts have been made to harness this reliable
and predictable resource. Harnessing of ocean energy needs detail
knowledge of underlying mathematical governing equation and their
analysis. With the advent of extra ordinary computational resources
it is now possible to predict the wave climatology in lab simulation.
Several techniques have been developed mostly stem from numerical
analysis of Navier Stokes equations. This paper presents a brief over
view of such mathematical model and tools to understand and
analyze the wave climatology. Models of 1st, 2nd and 3rd generations
have been developed to estimate the wave characteristics to assess the
power potential. A brief overview of available wave energy
technologies is also given. A novel concept of on-shore wave energy
extraction method is also presented at the end. The concept is based
upon total energy conservation, where energy of wave is transferred
to the flexible converter to increase its kinetic energy. Squeezing
action by the external pressure on the converter body results in
increase velocities at discharge section. High velocity head then can
be used for energy storage or for direct utility of power generation.
This converter utilizes the both potential and kinetic energy of the
waves and designed for on-shore or near-shore application. Increased
wave height at the shore due to shoaling effects increases the
potential energy of the waves which is converted to renewable
energy. This approach will result in economic wave energy
converter due to near shore installation and more dense waves due to
shoaling. Method will be more efficient because of tapping both
potential and kinetic energy of the waves.
Abstract: Text Mining is around applying knowledge discovery
techniques to unstructured text is termed knowledge discovery in text
(KDT), or Text data mining or Text Mining. In decision tree
approach is most useful in classification problem. With this
technique, tree is constructed to model the classification process.
There are two basic steps in the technique: building the tree and
applying the tree to the database. This paper describes a proposed
C5.0 classifier that performs rulesets, cross validation and boosting
for original C5.0 in order to reduce the optimization of error ratio.
The feasibility and the benefits of the proposed approach are
demonstrated by means of medial data set like hypothyroid. It is
shown that, the performance of a classifier on the training cases from
which it was constructed gives a poor estimate by sampling or using a
separate test file, either way, the classifier is evaluated on cases that
were not used to build and evaluate the classifier are both are large. If
the cases in hypothyroid.data and hypothyroid.test were to be
shuffled and divided into a new 2772 case training set and a 1000
case test set, C5.0 might construct a different classifier with a lower
or higher error rate on the test cases. An important feature of see5 is
its ability to classifiers called rulesets. The ruleset has an error rate
0.5 % on the test cases. The standard errors of the means provide an
estimate of the variability of results. One way to get a more reliable
estimate of predictive is by f-fold –cross- validation. The error rate of
a classifier produced from all the cases is estimated as the ratio of the
total number of errors on the hold-out cases to the total number of
cases. The Boost option with x trials instructs See5 to construct up to
x classifiers in this manner. Trials over numerous datasets, large and
small, show that on average 10-classifier boosting reduces the error
rate for test cases by about 25%.
Abstract: Electronic voting (E-voting) using an internet has been
recently performed in some nations and regions. There is no spatial
restriction which a voter directly has to visit the polling place, but an
e-voting using an internet has to go together the computer in which the
internet connection is possible. Also, this voting requires an access
code for the e-voting through the beforehand report of a voter. To
minimize these disadvantages, we propose a method in which a voter,
who has the wireless certificate issued in advance, uses its own cellular
phone for an e-voting without the special registration for a vote. Our
proposal allows a voter to cast his vote in a simple and convenient way
without the limit of time and location, thereby increasing the voting
rate, and also ensuring confidentiality and anonymity.
Abstract: The paper presents the results of theoretical and
numerical modeling of propagation of shock waves in bubbly liquids
related to nonlinear effects (realistic equation of state, chemical
reactions, two-dimensional effects). On the basis on the Rankine-
Hugoniot equations the problem of determination of parameters of
passing and reflected shock waves in gas-liquid medium for
isothermal, adiabatic and shock compression of the gas component is
solved by using the wide-range equation of state of water in the
analitic form. The phenomenon of shock wave intensification is
investigated in the channel of variable cross section for the
propagation of a shock wave in the liquid filled with bubbles
containing chemically active gases. The results of modeling of the
wave impulse impact on the solid wall covered with bubble layer are
presented.
Abstract: In this paper, the potential use of an exponential
hidden Markov model to model a hidden pavement deterioration
process, i.e. one that is not directly measurable, is investigated. It is
assumed that the evolution of the physical condition, which is the
hidden process, and the evolution of the values of pavement distress
indicators, can be adequately described using discrete condition states
and modeled as a Markov processes. It is also assumed that condition
data can be collected by visual inspections over time and represented
continuously using an exponential distribution. The advantage of
using such a model in decision making process is illustrated through
an empirical study using real world data.
Abstract: In order to meet environmental norms, Indian fuel
policy aims at producing ultra low sulphur diesel (ULSD) in near
future. A catalyst for meeting such requirements has been developed
and kinetics of this catalytic process is being looked into. In the
present investigations, effect of mass transfer on kinetics of ultra deep
hydrodesulphurization (UDHDS) to produce ULSD has been studied
to determine intrinsic kinetics over a pre-sulphided catalyst.
Experiments have been carried out in a continuous flow micro reactor
operated in the temperature range of 330 to 3600C, whsv of 1 hr-1 at a
pressure of 35 bar, and its parameters estimated. Based on the derived
rate expression and estimated parameters optimum operation range
has been determined for this UDHDS catalyst to obtain ULSD
product.
Abstract: Modularized design approach can facilitate the
modeling of complex systems and support behavior analysis and
simulation in an iterative and thus complex engineering process, by
using encapsulated submodels of components and of their interfaces.
Therefore it can improve the design efficiency and simplify the
solving complicated problem. Multi-drivers off-road vehicle is
comparatively complicated. Driving-line is an important core part to a
vehicle; it has a significant contribution to the performance of a
vehicle. Multi-driver off-road vehicles have complex driving-line, so
its performance is heavily dependent on the driving-line. A typical
off-road vehicle-s driving-line system consists of torque converter,
transmission, transfer case and driving-axles, which transfer the
power, generated by the engine and distribute it effectively to the
driving wheels according to the road condition. According to its main
function, this paper puts forward a modularized approach for
designing and evaluation of vehicle-s driving-line. It can be used to
effectively estimate the performance of driving-line during concept
design stage. Through appropriate analysis and assessment method, an
optimal design can be reached. This method has been applied to the
practical vehicle design, it can improve the design efficiency and is
convenient to assess and validate the performance of a vehicle,
especially of multi-drivers off-road vehicle.
Abstract: Chloride induced corrosion of steel reinforcement is
the main cause of deterioration of reinforced concrete marine
structures. This paper investigates the relative performance of
alternative repair options with respect to the deterioration of
reinforced concrete bridge elements in marine environments. Focus is
placed on the initiation phase of reinforcement corrosion. A
laboratory study is described which involved exposing concrete
samples to accelerated chloride-ion ingress. The study examined the
relative efficiencies of two repair methods, namely Ordinary Portland
Cement (OPC) concrete and a concrete which utilised Ground
Granulated Blastfurnace Cement (GGBS) as a partial cement
replacement. The mix designs and materials utilised were identical to
those implemented in the repair of a marine bridge on the South East
coast of Ireland in 2007. The results of this testing regime serve to
inform input variables employed in probabilistic modelling of
deterioration for subsequent reliability based analysis to compare the
relative performance of the studied repair options.
Abstract: The purpose of this research was to analyze and compare the instability of a contact surface between Copper and Nickel an alloy cathode in vacuum, the different ratio of Copper and Copper were conducted at 1%, 2% and 4% by using the cathode spot model. The transient recovery voltage is predicted. The cathode spot region is recognized as the collisionless space charge sheath connected with singly ionized collisional plasma. It was found that the transient voltage is decreased with increasing the percentage of an amount of Nickel in cathode materials.
Abstract: This study endeavors to evaluate the effects of farmers’ training program on the adoption of improved farming practices, the output of rice farming, and the income as well as the profit from rice farming by employing an ex-post non-experimental data in Sierra Leone. It was established that participating in farmers’ training program increased the possibility of adoption of the improved farming activities that were implemented in the study area. Through the training program also, the proceeds from rice production was also established to have increased considerably. These results were in line with the assumption that one of the main constraints on the growth in agricultural output particularly rice cultivation in most African states is the lack of efficient extension programs.
Abstract: In this paper we are to find the optimum multiwavelet for compression of electrocardiogram (ECG) signals and then, selecting it for using with SPIHT codec. At present, it is not well known which multiwavelet is the best choice for optimum compression of ECG. In this work, we examine different multiwavelets on 24 sets of ECG data with entirely different characteristics, selected from MIT-BIH database. For assessing the functionality of the different multiwavelets in compressing ECG signals, in addition to known factors such as Compression Ratio (CR), Percent Root Difference (PRD), Distortion (D), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) in compression literature, we also employed the Cross Correlation (CC) criterion for studying the morphological relations between the reconstructed and the original ECG signal and Signal to reconstruction Noise Ratio (SNR). The simulation results show that the Cardinal Balanced Multiwavelet (cardbal2) by the means of identity (Id) prefiltering method to be the best effective transformation. After finding the most efficient multiwavelet, we apply SPIHT coding algorithm on the transformed signal by this multiwavelet.
Abstract: The aim of this paper is to investigate the
performance of the developed two point block method designed for
two processors for solving directly non stiff large systems of higher
order ordinary differential equations (ODEs). The method calculates
the numerical solution at two points simultaneously and produces
two new equally spaced solution values within a block and it is
possible to assign the computational tasks at each time step to a
single processor. The algorithm of the method was developed in C
language and the parallel computation was done on a parallel shared
memory environment. Numerical results are given to compare the
efficiency of the developed method to the sequential timing. For
large problems, the parallel implementation produced 1.95 speed-up
and 98% efficiency for the two processors.
Abstract: The objective of this study is to investigate the
combustion in a pilot-ignited supercharged dual-fuel engine, fueled
with different types of gaseous fuels under various equivalence ratios.
It is found that if certain operating conditions are maintained,
conventional dual-fuel engine combustion mode can be transformed to
the combustion mode with the two-stage heat release. This mode of
combustion was called the PREMIER (PREmixed Mixture Ignition in
the End-gas Region) combustion. During PREMIER combustion,
initially, the combustion progresses as the premixed flame
propagation and then, due to the mixture autoignition in the end-gas
region, ahead of the propagating flame front, the transition occurs with
the rapid increase in the heat release rate.