Forecast of the Small Wind Turbines Sales with Replacement Purchases and with or without Account of Price Changes

The purpose of the paper is to estimate the US small wind turbines market potential and forecast the small wind turbines sales in the US. The forecasting method is based on the application of the Bass model and the generalized Bass model of innovations diffusion under replacement purchases. In the work an exponential distribution is used for modeling of replacement purchases. Only one parameter of such distribution is determined by average lifetime of small wind turbines. The identification of the model parameters is based on nonlinear regression analysis on the basis of the annual sales statistics which has been published by the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) since 2001 up to 2012. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) without account of price changes is 57080 (confidence interval from 49294 to 64866 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 62402 (confidence interval from 54154 to 70648 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 90,7%, while in the second - 91,8%. The effect of the wind turbines price changes on their sales was estimated using generalized Bass model. This required a price forecast. To do this, the polynomial regression function, which is based on the Berkeley Lab statistics, was used. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) in that case is 42542 (confidence interval from 32863 to 52221 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 47426 (confidence interval from 36092 to 58760 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 95,3%, while in the second – 95,3%.

Structural Performance Evaluation of Segmented Wind Turbine Blade through Finite Element Simulation

Transportation of long turbine blades from one place to another is a difficult process. Hence a feasibility study of modularization of wind turbine blade was taken from structural standpoint through finite element analysis. Initially, a non-segmented blade is modeled and its structural behavior is evaluated to serve as reference. The resonant, static bending and fatigue tests are simulated in accordance with IEC61400-23 standard for comparison purpose. The non-segmented test blade is separated at suitable location based on trade off studies and the segments are joined with an innovative double strap bonded joint configuration. The adhesive joint is modeled by adopting cohesive zone modeling approach in ANSYS. The developed blade model is analyzed for its structural response through simulation. Performances of both the blades are found to be similar, which indicates that, efficient segmentation of the long blade is possible which facilitates easy transportation of the blades and on site reassembling. The location selected for segmentation and adopted joint configuration has resulted in an efficient segmented blade model which proves the methodology adopted for segmentation was quite effective. The developed segmented blade appears to be the viable alternative considering its structural response specifically in fatigue within considered assumptions.

Modernization of the Economic Price Adjustment Software

The US Consumer Price Indices (CPIs) measures hundreds of items in the US economy. Many social programs and government benefits index to the CPIs. The purpose of this project is to modernize an existing process. This paper will show the development of a small, visual, software product that documents the Economic Price Adjustment (EPA) for longterm contracts. The existing workbook does not provide the flexibility to calculate EPAs where the base-month and the option-month are different. Nor does the workbook provide automated error checking. The small, visual, software product provides the additional flexibility and error checking. This paper presents the feedback to project.

Demographics Are Not Enough: Targeting and Segmentation of Anti-Obesity Campaigns in Mexico

Mass media campaigns against obesity are often designed to impact large audiences. This usually means that their audience is defined based on general demographic characteristics like age, gender, occupation etc., not taking into account psychographics like behavior, motivations, wants, etc. Using psychographics, as the base for the audience segmentation, is a common practice in case of successful campaigns, as it allows developing more relevant messages. It also serves a purpose of identifying key segments, those that generate the best return on investment. For a health campaign, that would be segments that have the best chance of being converted into healthy lifestyle at the lowest cost. This paper presents the limitations of the demographic targeting, based on the findings from the reception study of IMSS (Mexican Social Security Institute) antiobesity TV commercials and proposes mothers as the first level of segmentation, in the process of identifying the key segment for these campaigns.

(Anti)Depressant Effects of Non-Steroidal Antiinflammatory Drugs in Mice

Purpose: The study aimed to assess the depressant or antidepressant effects of several Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drugs (NSAIDs) in mice: the selective cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) inhibitor meloxicam, and the non-selective COX-1 and COX-2 inhibitors lornoxicam, sodium metamizole, and ketorolac. The current literature data regarding such effects of these agents are scarce. Materials and methods: The study was carried out on NMRI mice weighing 20-35 g, kept in a standard laboratory environment. The study was approved by the Ethics Committee of the University of Medicine and Pharmacy „Carol Davila”, Bucharest. The study agents were injected intraperitoneally, 10 mL/kg body weight (bw) 1 hour before the assessment of the locomotor activity by cage testing (n=10 mice/ group) and 2 hours before the forced swimming tests (n=15). The study agents were dissolved in normal saline (meloxicam, sodium metamizole), ethanol 11.8% v/v in normal saline (ketorolac), or water (lornoxicam), respectively. Negative and positive control agents were also given (amitryptilline in the forced swimming test). The cage floor used in the locomotor activity assessment was divided into 20 equal 10 cm squares. The forced swimming test involved partial immersion of the mice in cylinders (15/9cm height/diameter) filled with water (10 cm depth at 28C), where they were left for 6 minutes. The cage endpoint used in the locomotor activity assessment was the number of treaded squares. Four endpoints were used in the forced swimming test (immobility latency for the entire 6 minutes, and immobility, swimming, and climbing scores for the final 4 minutes of the swimming session), recorded by an observer that was „blinded” to the experimental design. The statistical analysis used the Levene test for variance homogeneity, ANOVA and post-hoc analysis as appropriate, Tukey or Tamhane tests. Results: No statistically significant increase or decrease in the number of treaded squares was seen in the locomotor activity assessment of any mice group. In the forced swimming test, amitryptilline showed an antidepressant effect in each experiment, at the 10 mg/kg bw dosage. Sodium metamizole was depressant at 100 mg/kg bw (increased the immobility score, p=0.049, Tamhane test), but not in lower dosages as well (25 and 50 mg/kg bw). Ketorolac showed an antidepressant effect at the intermediate dosage of 5 mg/kg bw, but not so in the dosages of 2.5 and 10 mg/kg bw, respectively (increased the swimming score, p=0.012, Tamhane test). Meloxicam and lornoxicam did not alter the forced swimming endpoints at any dosage level. Discussion: 1) Certain NSAIDs caused changes in the forced swimming patterns without interfering with locomotion. 2) Sodium metamizole showed a depressant effect, whereas ketorolac proved antidepressant. Conclusion: NSAID-induced mood changes are not class effects of these agents and apparently are independent of the type of inhibited cyclooxygenase (COX-1 or COX-2). Disclosure: This paper was co-financed from the European Social Fund, through the Sectorial Operational Programme Human Resources Development 2007-2013, project number POSDRU /159 /1.5 /S /138907 "Excellence in scientific interdisciplinary research, doctoral and postdoctoral, in the economic, social and medical fields -EXCELIS", coordinator The Bucharest University of Economic Studies.

Potential of Safflower (Carthamus tinctorius L.) for Phytoremedation of Soils Contaminated with Heavy Metals

A field study was conducted to evaluate the efficacy of safflower plant for phytoremediation of contaminated soils. The experiment was performed on an agricultural fields contaminated by the Non-Ferrous-Metal Works near Plovdiv, Bulgaria. Field experiments with randomized complete block design with five treatments (control, compost amendments added at 20 and 40 t/daa, and vermicompost amendments added at 20 and 40 t/daa) were carried out. The quality of safflower seeds and oil (heavy metals and fatty acid composition) were determined. Tested organic amendments significantly influenced the chemical composition of safflower seeds and oil. The compost and vermicompost treatments significantly reduced heavy metals concentration in safflower seeds and oils, but the effect differed among them. Addition of vermicompost and compost leads to an increase in the content of palmitic acid and linoleic acid, and a decrease in the stearic and oleic acids compared with the control. A significant increase in the quantity of saturated acids was observed in the variants with 20 t/daa of compost and 20 t/daa of vermicompost (9.1 and 8.9% relative to the control). Safflower is a plant which is tolerant to heavy metals and can be successfully used in the phytoremediation of heavy metal contaminated soils. The processing of seeds to oil and using the obtained oil for nutritional purposes will greatly reduce the cost of phytoremediation.

Durian Marker Kit for Durian (Durio zibethinus Murr.) Identity

Durian is the flagship fruit of Mindanao and there is an abundance of several cultivars with many confusing identities/ names. The project was conducted to develop procedure for reliable and rapid detection and sorting of durian planting materials. Moreover, it is also aimed to establish specific genetic or DNA markers for routine testing and authentication of durian cultivars in question. The project developed molecular procedures for routine testing. SSR primers were also screened and identified for their utility in discriminating durian cultivars collected. Results of the study showed the following accomplishments: 1. Twenty (29) SSR primers were selected and identified based on their ability to discriminate durian cultivars, 2. Optimized and established standard procedure for identification and authentication of Durian cultivars 3. Genetic profile of durian is now available at Biotech Unit Our results demonstrate the relevance of using molecular techniques in evaluating and identifying durian clones. The most polymorphic primers tested in this study could be useful tools for detecting variation even at the early stage of the plant especially for commercial purposes. The process developed combines the efficiency of the microsatellites development process with the optimization of non-radioactive detection process resulting in a user-friendly protocol that can be performed in two (2) weeks and easily incorporated into laboratories about to start microsatellite development projects. This can be of great importance to extend microsatellite analyses to other crop species where minimal genetic information is currently available. With this, the University can now be a service laboratory for routine testing and authentication of durian clones.

Internet Shopping: A Study Based On Hedonic Value and Flow Theory

With the flourishing development of online shopping, an increasing number of customers see online shopping as an entertaining experience. Because the online consumer has a double identity as a shopper and an Internet user, online shopping should offer hedonic values of shopping and Internet usage. The purpose of this study is to investigate hedonic online shopping motivations from the perspectives of traditional hedonic value and flow theory. The study adopted a focus group interview method, including two online and two offline interviews. Four focus groups of shoppers consisted of online professionals, online college students, offline professionals and offline college students. The results of the study indicate that traditional hedonic values and dimensions of flow theory exist in the online shopping environment. The study indicated that online shoppers seem to appreciate being able to learn things and grow to become competitive achievers online. Comparisons of online hedonic motivations between groups are conducted. This study serves as a basis for the future growth of Internet marketing.

Determination and Comparison of Some Elements in Different Types of Orange Juices and Investigation of Health Effects

Fruit juices play important roles in human health as being a key part of nutrition. Juice and nectar are two categories of drinks with so many variations for consumers, regardless of age, lifestyle and taste preferences, which they can find their favorites. Juices contain 100% pulp when pulp content of ‘nectar’ changes between 25%-50%. In this study, potassium (K), magnesium (Mg), and phosphorus (P) contents in orange juice and nectar is determined for conscious consumption. For this purpose inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry (ICP-OES) is used to find out potassium (K), magnesium (Mg), and phosphorus (P) contents in orange juices and nectar. Furthermore, the daily intake of elements from orange juice and nectar that affects human health is also investigated. From the results of experiments K, Mg and P contents are found in orange juice as 1351; 73,25; 89,27 ppm and in orange nectar as 986; 33,76; 51,30 respectively.

The Classification Performance in Parametric and Nonparametric Discriminant Analysis for a Class- Unbalanced Data of Diabetes Risk Groups

The problems arising from unbalanced data sets generally appear in real world applications. Due to unequal class distribution, many researchers have found that the performance of existing classifiers tends to be biased towards the majority class. The k-nearest neighbors’ nonparametric discriminant analysis is a method that was proposed for classifying unbalanced classes with good performance. In this study, the methods of discriminant analysis are of interest in investigating misclassification error rates for classimbalanced data of three diabetes risk groups. The purpose of this study was to compare the classification performance between parametric discriminant analysis and nonparametric discriminant analysis in a three-class classification of class-imbalanced data of diabetes risk groups. Data from a project maintaining healthy conditions for 599 employees of a government hospital in Bangkok were obtained for the classification problem. The employees were divided into three diabetes risk groups: non-risk (90%), risk (5%), and diabetic (5%). The original data including the variables of diabetes risk group, age, gender, blood glucose, and BMI were analyzed and bootstrapped for 50 and 100 samples, 599 observations per sample, for additional estimation of the misclassification error rate. Each data set was explored for the departure of multivariate normality and the equality of covariance matrices of the three risk groups. Both the original data and the bootstrap samples showed nonnormality and unequal covariance matrices. The parametric linear discriminant function, quadratic discriminant function, and the nonparametric k-nearest neighbors’ discriminant function were performed over 50 and 100 bootstrap samples and applied to the original data. Searching the optimal classification rule, the choices of prior probabilities were set up for both equal proportions (0.33: 0.33: 0.33) and unequal proportions of (0.90:0.05:0.05), (0.80: 0.10: 0.10) and (0.70, 0.15, 0.15). The results from 50 and 100 bootstrap samples indicated that the k-nearest neighbors approach when k=3 or k=4 and the defined prior probabilities of non-risk: risk: diabetic as 0.90: 0.05:0.05 or 0.80:0.10:0.10 gave the smallest error rate of misclassification. The k-nearest neighbors approach would be suggested for classifying a three-class-imbalanced data of diabetes risk groups.

Application of Single Subject Experimental Designs in Adapted Physical Activity Research: A Descriptive Analysis

The purpose of this study was to develop a descriptive profile of the adapted physical activity research using single subject experimental designs. All research articles using single subject experimental designs published in the journal of Adapted Physical Activity Quarterly from 1984 to 2013 were employed as the data source. Each of the articles was coded in a subcategory of seven categories: (a) the size of sample; (b) the age of participants; (c) the type of disabilities; (d) the type of data analysis; (e) the type of designs, (f) the independent variable, and (g) the dependent variable. Frequencies, percentages, and trend inspection were used to analyze the data and develop a profile. The profile developed characterizes a small portion of research articles used single subject designs, in which most researchers used a small sample size, recruited children as subjects, emphasized learning and behavior impairments, selected visual inspection with descriptive statistics, preferred a multiple baseline design, focused on effects of therapy, inclusion, and strategy, and measured desired behaviors more often, with a decreasing trend over years.

Semantic Indexing Approach of a Corpora Based On Ontology

The growth in the volume of text data such as books and articles in libraries for centuries has imposed to establish effective mechanisms to locate them. Early techniques such as abstraction, indexing and the use of classification categories have marked the birth of a new field of research called "Information Retrieval". Information Retrieval (IR) can be defined as the task of defining models and systems whose purpose is to facilitate access to a set of documents in electronic form (corpus) to allow a user to find the relevant ones for him, that is to say, the contents which matches with the information needs of the user. This paper presents a new semantic indexing approach of a documentary corpus. The indexing process starts first by a term weighting phase to determine the importance of these terms in the documents. Then the use of a thesaurus like Wordnet allows moving to the conceptual level. Each candidate concept is evaluated by determining its level of representation of the document, that is to say, the importance of the concept in relation to other concepts of the document. Finally, the semantic index is constructed by attaching to each concept of the ontology, the documents of the corpus in which these concepts are found.

Monetary Evaluation of Dispatching Decisions in Consideration of Mode Choice Models

Microscopic simulation tool kits allow for consideration of the two processes of railway operations and the previous timetable production. Block occupation conflicts on both process levels are often solved by using defined train priorities. These conflict resolutions (dispatching decisions) generate reactionary delays to the involved trains. The sum of reactionary delays is commonly used to evaluate the quality of railway operations, which describes the timetable robustness. It is either compared to an acceptable train performance or the delays are appraised economically by linear monetary functions. It is impossible to adequately evaluate dispatching decisions without a well-founded objective function. This paper presents a new approach for the evaluation of dispatching decisions. The approach uses mode choice models and considers the behaviour of the end-customers. These models evaluate the reactionary delays in more detail and consider other competing modes of transport. The new approach pursues the coupling of a microscopic model of railway operations with the macroscopic choice mode model. At first, it will be implemented for railway operations process but it can also be used for timetable production. The evaluation considers the possibility for the customer to interchange to other transport modes. The new approach starts to look at rail and road, but it can also be extended to air travel. The result of mode choice models is the modal split. The reactions by the end-customers have an impact on the revenue of the train operating companies. Different purposes of travel have different payment reserves and tolerances towards late running. Aside from changes to revenues, longer journey times can also generate additional costs. The costs are either time- or track-specific and arise from required changes to rolling stock or train crew cycles. Only the variable values are summarised in the contribution margin, which is the base for the monetary evaluation of delays. The contribution margin is calculated for different possible solutions to the same conflict. The conflict resolution is optimised until the monetary loss becomes minimal. The iterative process therefore determines an optimum conflict resolution by monitoring the change to the contribution margin. Furthermore, a monetary value of each dispatching decision can also be derived.

Impact of Electronic Guest Relationship Management (e-GRM) on Brand Loyalty: The Case of Croatian Hotels

Quick adoption of e-business and emerging influence of “Electronic Word of Mouth e-WOM” communication on guests made leading hotel brands successful examples of electronic guest relationship management. Main reasons behind such success are well established procedures in collection, analysis and usage of highly valuable data available on the Internet, generated through some form of e-GRM programme. E-GRM is more than just a technology solution. It’s a system which balance respective guest demands, hotel technological capabilities and organizational culture of employees, discharging the universal approach in guest relations “same for all”. The purpose of this research derives from the necessity of determining the importance of monitoring and applying e-WOM communication as one of the methods used in managing guest relations. This paper analyses and compares different hotelier’s opinions on e-WOM communication.

Chemical and Vibrational Nonequilibrium Hypersonic Viscous Flow around an Axisymmetric Blunt Body

Hypersonic flows around spatial vehicles during their reentry phase in planetary atmospheres are characterized by intense aerothermodynamics phenomena. The aim of this work is to analyze high temperature flows around an axisymmetric blunt body taking into account chemical and vibrational non-equilibrium for air mixture species and the no slip condition at the wall. For this purpose, the Navier-Stokes equations system is resolved by the finite volume methodology to determine the flow parameters around the axisymmetric blunt body especially at the stagnation point and in the boundary layer along the wall of the blunt body. The code allows the capture of shock wave before a blunt body placed in hypersonic free stream. The numerical technique uses the Flux Vector Splitting method of Van Leer. CFL coefficient and mesh size level are selected to ensure the numerical convergence.

OPEN_EmoRec_II- A Multimodal Corpus of Human-Computer Interaction

OPEN_EmoRec_II is an open multimodal corpus with experimentally induced emotions. In the first half of the experiment, emotions were induced with standardized picture material and in the second half during a human-computer interaction (HCI), realized with a wizard-of-oz design. The induced emotions are based on the dimensional theory of emotions (valence, arousal and dominance). These emotional sequences - recorded with multimodal data (facial reactions, speech, audio and physiological reactions) during a naturalistic-like HCI-environment one can improve classification methods on a multimodal level. This database is the result of an HCI-experiment, for which 30 subjects in total agreed to a publication of their data including the video material for research purposes*. The now available open corpus contains sensory signal of: video, audio, physiology (SCL, respiration, BVP, EMG Corrugator supercilii, EMG Zygomaticus Major) and facial reactions annotations.

OPEN_EmoRec_II- A Multimodal Corpus of Human-Computer Interaction

OPEN_EmoRec_II is an open multimodal corpus with experimentally induced emotions. In the first half of the experiment, emotions were induced with standardized picture material and in the second half during a human-computer interaction (HCI), realized with a wizard-of-oz design. The induced emotions are based on the dimensional theory of emotions (valence, arousal and dominance). These emotional sequences - recorded with multimodal data (facial reactions, speech, audio and physiological reactions) during a naturalistic-like HCI-environment one can improve classification methods on a multimodal level. This database is the result of an HCI-experiment, for which 30 subjects in total agreed to a publication of their data including the video material for research purposes*. The now available open corpus contains sensory signal of: video, audio, physiology (SCL, respiration, BVP, EMG Corrugator supercilii, EMG Zygomaticus Major) and facial reactions annotations.

Numerical Investigation of Natural Convection of Pine, Olive, and Orange Leaves

Heat transfer of leaves is a crucial factor in optimal operation of metabolic functions in plants. In order to quantify this phenomenon in different leaves and investigate the influence of leaf shape on heat transfer, natural convection for pine, orange and olive leaves was simulated as representatives of different groups of leaf shapes. CFD techniques were used in this simulation with the purpose to calculate heat transfer of leaves in similar environmental conditions. The problem was simulated for steady state and threedimensional conditions. From obtained results, it was concluded that heat fluxes of all three different leaves are almost identical, however, total rate of heat transfer have highest and lowest values for orange leaves, and pine leaves, respectively.

Compensation of Power Quality Disturbances Using DVR

One of the key aspects of power quality improvement in power system is the mitigation of voltage sags/swells and flicker. Custom power devices have been known as the best tools for voltage disturbances mitigation as well as reactive power compensation. Dynamic Voltage Restorer (DVR) which is the most efficient and effective modern custom power device can provide the most commercial solution to solve several problems of power quality in distribution networks. This paper deals with analysis and simulation technique of DVR based on instantaneous power theory which is a quick control to detect signals. The main purpose of this work is to remove three important disturbances including voltage sags/swells and flicker. Simulation of the proposed method was carried out on two sample systems by using Matlab software environment and the results of simulation show that the proposed method is able to provide desirable power quality in the presence of wide range of disturbances.

Flexural Performance of the Sandwich Structures Having Aluminum Foam Core with Different Thicknesses

The structures obtained with the use of sandwich technologies combine low weight with high energy absorbing capacity and load carrying capacity. Hence, there is a growing and markedly interest in the use of sandwiches with aluminum foam core because of very good properties such as flexural rigidity and energy absorption capability. In the current investigation, the static threepoint bending tests were carried out on the sandwiches with aluminum foam core and glass fiber reinforced polymer (GFRP) skins at different values of support span distances aiming the analyses of their flexural performance. The influence of the core thickness and the GFRP skin type was reported in terms of peak load and energy absorption capacity. For this purpose, the skins with two different types of fabrics which have same thickness value and the aluminum foam core with two different thicknesses were bonded with a commercial polyurethane based flexible adhesive in order to combine the composite sandwich panels. The main results of the bending tests are: force-displacement curves, peak force values, absorbed energy, collapse mechanisms and the effect of the support span length and core thickness. The results of the experimental study showed that the sandwich with the skins made of S-Glass Woven fabrics and with the thicker foam core presented higher mechanical values such as load carrying and energy absorption capacities. The increment of the support span distance generated the decrease of the mechanical values for each type of panels, as expected, because of the inverse proportion between the force and span length. The most common failure types of the sandwiches are debonding of the lower skin and the core shear. The obtained results have particular importance for applications that require lightweight structures with a high capacity of energy dissipation, such as the transport industry (automotive, aerospace, shipbuilding and marine industry), where the problems of collision and crash have increased in the last years.