Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between financial
risks and profitability of the conventional and Islamic banks in
Malaysia for the period between 1996 and 2005. The measures of
profitability that have been used in the study are the return on equity
(ROE) and return on assets (ROA) while the financial risks are credit
risk, interest rate risk and liquidity risks. This study employs panel
data regression analysis of Generalised Least Squares of fixed effects
and random effects models. It was found that credit risk has a
significant impact on ROA and ROE for the conventional as well as
the Islamic banks. The relationship between interest rate risk and ROE
were found to be weakly significant for the conventional banks and
insignificant for the Islamic banks. The effect of interest rate risk on
ROA is significant for the conventional banks. Liquidity risk was
found to have an insignificant impact on both profitability measures.
Abstract: As a learning theory tries to borrow from science a framework to found its method, it shows paradoxes and paralysing contraddictions. This results, on one hand, from adopting a learning/teaching model as it were a mere “transfer of data" (mechanical learning approach), and on the other hand from borrowing the complexity theory (an indeterministic and non-linear model), that risks to vanish every educational effort. This work is aimed at describing existing criticism, unveiling the antinomic nature of such paradoxes, focussing on a view where neither the mechanical learning perspective nor the chaotic and nonlinear model can threaten and jeopardize the educational work. Author intends to go back over the steps that led to these paradoxes and to unveil their antinomic nature. Actually this could serve the purpose to explain some current misunderstandings about the real usefulness of Ict within the youth-s learning process and growth.
Abstract: In this paper we use data mining techniques to investigate factors that contribute significantly to enhancing the risk of acute coronary syndrome. We assume that the dependent variable is diagnosis – with dichotomous values showing presence or absence of disease. We have applied binary regression to the factors affecting the dependent variable. The data set has been taken from two different cardiac hospitals of Karachi, Pakistan. We have total sixteen variables out of which one is assumed dependent and other 15 are independent variables. For better performance of the regression model in predicting acute coronary syndrome, data reduction techniques like principle component analysis is applied. Based on results of data reduction, we have considered only 14 out of sixteen factors.
Abstract: Salary risk and demographic risk have been identified
as main risks in analyzing pension expenditure particularly in
Defined Benefit pension plan. Therefore, public pension plan in
Malaysia is studied to analyze pension expenditure due to salary and
demographic risk. Through the literature review and interview session
with several officers in public sector, factors affecting pension
expenditure are determined. Then, the inter-relationships between
these factors are analyzed through causal loop diagram. The System
Dynamics model is later developed using iThink software to show how
demographic and salary changes affect the pension expenditure. Then, by
using actual data, the impact of different policy scenarios on pension
expenditure is analyzed. It is shown that dynamics simulation model of
pension expenditure is useful to evaluate the impact of changes and
policy decisions on risk particularly involving demographic and salary risk.
Abstract: The enthusiasm for gluten avoidance in a growing
market is met by improvements in sensitive detection methods for
analysing gluten content. Paradoxically, manufacturers employ no
such systems in the production process but continue to market their
product as gluten free, a significant risk posed to an undetermined
coeliac population. This paper resonates with an immunological
response that causes gastrointestinal scarring and villous atrophy with
the conventional description of personal injury. This thesis divulges
into evaluating potential inadequacies of gluten labelling laws which
not only present a diagnostic challenge for general practitioners in the
UK but it also exposes a less than adequate form of available legal
protection to those who suffer adverse reactions as a result of gluten
digestion. Central to this discussion is whether a claim brought in
misrepresentation, negligence and/or under the Consumer Protection
Act 1987 could be sustained. An interesting comparison is then made
with the legal regimes of neighboring jurisdictions furthering the
theme of a legally un-catered for gluten kingdom.
Abstract: Cardiovascular diseases, principally atherosclerosis, are responsible for 30% of world deaths. Atherosclerosis is due to the formation of plaque. The fatty plaque may be at risk of rupture, leading typically to stroke and heart attack. The plaque is usually associated with a high degree of lumen reduction, called a stenosis.It is increasingly recognized that the initiation and progression of disease and the occurrence of clinical events is a complex interplay between the local biomechanical environment and the local vascular biology. The aim of this study is to investigate the flow behavior through a stenosed artery. A physical experiment was performed using an artery model and blood analogue fluid. An axisymmetric model constructed consists of contraction and expansion region that follow a mathematical form of cosine function. A 30% diameter reduction was used in this study. The flow field was measured using particle image velocimetry (PIV). Spherical particles with 20μm diameter were seeded in a water-glycerol-NaCl mixture. Steady flow Reynolds numbers are 250. The area of interest is the region after the stenosis where the flow separation occurs. The velocity field was measured and the velocity gradient was investigated. There was high particle concentration in the recirculation zone. High velocity gradient formed immediately after the stenosis throat created a lift force that enhanced particle migration to the flow separation area.
Abstract: Risk Assessment Tool (RAT) is an expert system that
assesses, monitors, and gives preliminary treatments automatically
based on the project plan. In this paper, a review was taken out for
the current project time management risk assessment tools for SME
software development projects, analyze risk assessment parameters,
conditions, scenarios, and finally propose risk assessment tool (RAT)
model to assess, treat, and monitor risks. An implementation prototype
system is developed to validate the model.
Abstract: This paper presents probabilistic horizontal seismic
hazard assessment of Naghan, Iran. It displays the probabilistic
estimate of Peak Ground Horizontal Acceleration (PGHA) for the
return period of 475, 950 and 2475 years. The output of the
probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is based on peak ground
acceleration (PGA), which is the most common criterion in designing
of buildings. A catalogue of seismic events that includes both
historical and instrumental events was developed and covers the
period from 840 to 2009. The seismic sources that affect the hazard
in Naghan were identified within the radius of 200 km and the
recurrence relationships of these sources were generated by Kijko
and Sellevoll. Finally Peak Ground Horizontal Acceleration (PGHA)
has been prepared to indicate the earthquake hazard of Naghan for
different hazard levels by using SEISRISK III software.
Abstract: This study assesses the vulnerability of Bulgarian
agriculture to drought using the WINISAREG model and seasonal
standard precipitation index SPI(2) for the period 1951-2004. This
model was previously validated for maize on soils of different water
holding capacity (TAW) in various locations. Simulations are
performed for Plovdiv, Stara Zagora and Sofia. Results relative to
Plovdiv show that in soils of large TAW (180 mm m-1) net irrigation
requirements (NIRs) range 0-40 mm in wet years and 350-380 mm in
dry years. In soils of small TAW (116 mm m-1), NIRs reach 440 mm
in the very dry year. NIRs in Sofia are about 80 mm smaller. Rainfed
maize is associated with great yield variability (29%
Abstract: The medical studies often require different methods
for parameters selection, as a second step of processing, after the
database-s designing and filling with information. One common
task is the selection of fields that act as risk factors using wellknown
methods, in order to find the most relevant risk factors and
to establish a possible hierarchy between them. Different methods
are available in this purpose, one of the most known being the
binary logistic regression. We will present the mathematical
principles of this method and a practical example of using it in the
analysis of the influence of 10 different psychiatric diagnostics
over 4 different types of offences (in a database made from 289
psychiatric patients involved in different types of offences).
Finally, we will make some observations about the relation
between the risk factors hierarchy established through binary
logistic regression and the individual risks, as well as the results of
Chi-squared test. We will show that the hierarchy built using the
binary logistic regression doesn-t agree with the direct order of risk
factors, even if it was naturally to assume this hypothesis as being
always true.
Abstract: Attachment theory focuses on the bond that develops between child and caretaker and the consequences that this bond has on the childs future relationships. Adolescents attempt to define their identity by experiencing various risky behaviors. The first aim of the study was whether risk taking behavior differs according to attachment styles. The second was to examine risk taking behavior differences according to gender. The third aim of this study was to examine attachment X gender interaction effect for risk taking behavior. And final was to investigate attachment styles differences according to gender. Data were collected from 218 participants (114 female and 104 male) who are university students. The results of this study showed that attachment styles differentiated by risk taking behavior and males had higher risk taking score than females. It was also found out that there was significant attachment X gender interaction effect for risk taking behavior. And finally, the results showed that attachment styles differentiated according to gender.KeywordsAttachment style, risk taking
Abstract: Many firms implemented various initiatives such as outsourced manufacturing which could make a supply chain (SC) more vulnerable to various types of disruptions. So managing risk has become a critical component of SC management. Different types of SC vulnerability management methodologies have been proposed for managing SC risk, most offer only point-based solutions that deal with a limited set of risks. This research aims to reinforce SC risk management by proposing an integrated approach. SC risks are identified and a risk index classification structure is created. Then we develop a SC risk assessment approach based on the analytic network process (ANP) and the VIKOR methods under the fuzzy environment where the vagueness and subjectivity are handled with linguistic terms parameterized by triangular fuzzy numbers. By using FANP, risks weights are calculated and then inserted to the FVIKOR to rank the SC members and find the most risky partner.
Abstract: As the new industrial revolution advances in the
nanotechnology have been followed with interest throughout the
world and also in Turkey. Media has an important role in conveying
these advances to public, rising public awareness and creating
attitudes related to nanotechnology. As well as representing how a
subject is treated, media frames determine how public think about
this subject. In literature definite frames related to nanoscience and
nanotechnology such as process, regulation, conflict and risks were
mentioned in studies focusing different countries. So how
nanotechnology news is treated by which frames and in which news
categories in Turkey as a one of developing countries? In this study
examining different variables about nanotechnology that affect
public attitudes such as category, frame, story tone, source in Turkish
media via framing analysis developed in agenda setting studies was
aimed. In the analysis data between 2005 and 2009 obtained from the
first five national newspapers with wide circulation in Turkey will be
used. In this study the direction of the media about nanotechnology,
in which frames nanotechnologic advances brought to agenda were
reported as news, and sectoral, legal, economic and social scenes
reflected by these frames to public related to nanotechnology in
Turkey were planned.
Abstract: Thailand-s health system is challenged by the rising
number of patients and decreasing ratio of medical
practitioners/patients, especially in rural areas. This may tempt
inexperienced GPs to rush through the process of anamnesis with the
risk of incorrect diagnosis. Patients have to travel far to the hospital
and wait for a long time presenting their case. Many patients try to
cure themselves with traditional Thai medicine. Many countries are
making use of the Internet for medical information gathering,
distribution and storage. Telemedicine applications are a relatively
new field of study in Thailand; the infrastructure of ICT had
hampered widespread use of the Internet for using medical
information. With recent improvements made health and technology
professionals can work out novel applications and systems to help
advance telemedicine for the benefit of the people. Here we explore
the use of telemedicine for people with health problems in rural areas
in Thailand and present a Telemedicine Diagnosis System for Rural
Thailand (TEDIST) for diagnosing certain conditions that people
with Internet access can use to establish contact with Community
Health Centers, e.g. by mobile phone. The system uses a Web-based
input method for individual patients- symptoms, which are taken by
an expert system for the analysis of conditions and appropriate
diseases. The analysis harnesses a knowledge base and a backward
chaining component to find out, which health professionals should be
presented with the case. Doctors have the opportunity to exchange
emails or chat with the patients they are responsible for or other
specialists. Patients- data are then stored in a Personal Health Record.
Abstract: Purpose: Planning and dosimetry of different VMAT algorithms (SmartArc, Ergo++, Autobeam) is compared with IMRT for Head and Neck Cancer patients. Modelling was performed to rule out the causes of discrepancies between planned and delivered dose. Methods: Five HNC patients previously treated with IMRT were re-planned with SmartArc (SA), Ergo++ and Autobeam. Plans were compared with each other and against IMRT and evaluated using DVHs for PTVs and OARs, delivery time, monitor units (MU) and dosimetric accuracy. Modelling of control point (CP) spacing, Leaf-end Separation and MLC/Aperture shape was performed to rule out causes of discrepancies between planned and delivered doses. Additionally estimated arc delivery times, overall plan generation times and effect of CP spacing and number of arcs on plan generation times were recorded. Results: Single arc SmartArc plans (SA4d) were generally better than IMRT and double arc plans (SA2Arcs) in terms of homogeneity and target coverage. Double arc plans seemed to have a positive role in achieving improved Conformity Index (CI) and better sparing of some Organs at Risk (OARs) compared to Step and Shoot IMRT (ss-IMRT) and SA4d. Overall Ergo++ plans achieved best CI for both PTVs. Dosimetric validation of all VMAT plans without modelling was found to be lower than ss-IMRT. Total MUs required for delivery were on average 19%, 30%, 10.6% and 6.5% lower than ss-IMRT for SA4d, SA2d (Single arc with 20 Gantry Spacing), SA2Arcs and Autobeam plans respectively. Autobeam was most efficient in terms of actual treatment delivery times whereas Ergo++ plans took longest to deliver. Conclusion: Overall SA single arc plans on average achieved best target coverage and homogeneity for both PTVs. SA2Arc plans showed improved CI and some OARs sparing. Very good dosimetric results were achieved with modelling. Ergo++ plans achieved best CI. Autobeam resulted in fastest treatment delivery times.
Abstract: Coagulation of water involves the use of coagulating
agents to bring the suspended matter in the raw water together for
settling and the filtration stage. Present study is aimed to examine the
effects of aluminum sulfate as coagulant in conjunction with Moringa
Oleifera Coagulant Protein as coagulant aid on turbidity, hardness,
and bacteria in turbid water. A conventional jar test apparatus was
employed for the tests. The best removal was observed at a pH of 7
to 7.5 for all turbidities. Turbidity removal efficiency was resulted
between % 80 to % 99 by Moringa Oleifera Coagulant Protein as
coagulant aid. Dosage of coagulant and coagulant aid decreased with
increasing turbidity. In addition, Moringa Oleifera Coagulant Protein
significantly has reduced the required dosage of primary coagulant.
Residual Al+3 in treated water were less than 0.2 mg/l and meets the
environmental protection agency guidelines. The results showed that
turbidity reduction of % 85.9- % 98 paralleled by a primary
Escherichia coli reduction of 1-3 log units (99.2 – 99.97%) was
obtained within the first 1 to 2 h of treatment. In conclusions,
Moringa Oleifera Coagulant Protein as coagulant aid can be used for
drinking water treatment without the risk of organic or nutrient
release. We demonstrated that optimal design method is an efficient
approach for optimization of coagulation-flocculation process and
appropriate for raw water treatment.
Abstract: This study analyzed environmental health risks and
people-s perceptions of risks related to waste management in poor
settlements of Abidjan, to develop integrated solutions for health and
well-being improvement. The trans-disciplinary approach used relied
on remote sensing, a geographic information system (GIS),
qualitative and quantitative methods such as interviews and a
household survey (n=1800). Mitigating strategies were then
developed using an integrated participatory stakeholder workshop.
Waste management deficiencies resulting in lack of drainage and
uncontrolled solid and liquid waste disposal in the poor settlements
lead to severe environmental health risks. Health problems were
caused by direct handling of waste, as well as through broader
exposure of the population. People in poor settlements had little
awareness of health risks related to waste management in their
community and a general lack of knowledge pertaining to sanitation
systems. This unfortunate combination was the key determinant
affecting the health and vulnerability. For example, an increased
prevalence of malaria (47.1%) and diarrhoea (19.2%) was observed
in the rainy season when compared to the dry season (32.3% and
14.3%). Concerted and adapted solutions that suited all the
stakeholders concerned were developed in a participatory workshop
to allow for improvement of health and well-being.
Abstract: The turbulent mixing of coolant streams of different
temperature and density can cause severe temperature fluctuations in
piping systems in nuclear reactors. In certain periodic contraction
cycles these conditions lead to thermal fatigue. The resulting aging
effect prompts investigation in how the mixing of flows over a sharp
temperature/density interface evolves. To study the fundamental
turbulent mixing phenomena in the presence of density gradients,
isokinetic (shear-free) mixing experiments are performed in a square
channel with Reynolds numbers ranging from 2-500 to 60-000.
Sucrose is used to create the density difference. A Wire Mesh Sensor
(WMS) is used to determine the concentration map of the flow in the
cross section. The mean interface width as a function of velocity,
density difference and distance from the mixing point are analyzed
based on traditional methods chosen for the purposes of
atmospheric/oceanic stratification analyses. A definition of the
mixing layer thickness more appropriate to thermal fatigue and based
on mixedness is devised. This definition shows that the thermal
fatigue risk assessed using simple mixing layer growth can be
misleading and why an approach that separates the effects of large
scale (turbulent) and small scale (molecular) mixing is necessary.
Abstract: Due to the increasing and varying risks that economic units face with, derivative instruments gain substantial importance, and trading volumes of derivatives have reached very significant level. Parallel with these high trading volumes, researchers have developed many different models. Some are parametric, some are nonparametric. In this study, the aim is to analyse the success of artificial neural network in pricing of options with S&P 100 index options data. Generally, the previous studies cover the data of European type call options. This study includes not only European call option but also American call and put options and European put options. Three data sets are used to perform three different ANN models. One only includes data that are directly observed from the economic environment, i.e. strike price, spot price, interest rate, maturity, type of the contract. The others include an extra input that is not an observable data but a parameter, i.e. volatility. With these detail data, the performance of ANN in put/call dimension, American/European dimension, moneyness dimension is analyzed and whether the contribution of the volatility in neural network analysis make improvement in prediction performance or not is examined. The most striking results revealed by the study is that ANN shows better performance when pricing call options compared to put options; and the use of volatility parameter as an input does not improve the performance.
Abstract: Risk of infectious disease outbreaks is related to the
hygiene among the population. To assess the actual risks and modify
the relevant emergency procedures if necessary, a hygiene survey
was conducted among undergraduate students on the Rhodes
University campus. Soap was available to 10.5% and only 26.8% of
the study participants followed proper hygiene in relation to food
consumption. This combination increases the risk of infectious
disease outbreaks at the campus. Around 83.6% were willing to wash
their hands if soap was provided. Procurement and availability of
soap in undergraduate residences on campus should be improved, as
the total cost is estimated at only 2000 USD per annum. Awareness
campaigns about food-related hygiene and the need for regular handwashing
with soap should be run among Rhodes University students.
If successful, rates of respiratory and hygiene-related diseases will be
decreased and emergency health management simplified.