Abstract: Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is one of the most
widely used technique for evaluating the relative efficiency of a set
of homogeneous decision making units. Traditionally, it assumes that
input and output variables are known in advance, ignoring the critical
issue of data uncertainty. In this paper, we deal with the problem
of efficiency evaluation under uncertain conditions by adopting the
general framework of the stochastic programming. We assume that
output parameters are represented by discretely distributed random
variables and we propose two different models defined according to a
neutral and risk-averse perspective. The models have been validated
by considering a real case study concerning the evaluation of the
technical efficiency of a sample of individual firms operating in
the Italian leather manufacturing industry. Our findings show the
validity of the proposed approach as ex-ante evaluation technique
by providing the decision maker with useful insights depending on
his risk aversion degree.
Abstract: Understanding how airborne pathogens are
transported through hospital wards is essential for determining the
infection risk to patients and healthcare workers. This study utilizes
Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations to explore
possible pathogen transport within a six-bed partitioned Nightingalestyle
hospital ward.
Grid independence of a ward model was addressed using the Grid
Convergence Index (GCI) from solutions obtained using three fullystructured
grids. Pathogens were simulated using source terms in
conjunction with a scalar transport equation and a RANS turbulence
model. Errors were found to be less than 4% in the calculation of air
velocities but an average of 13% was seen in the scalar field.
A parametric study of variations in the pathogen release point
illustrated that its distribution is strongly influenced by the local
velocity field and the degree of air mixing present.
Abstract: From food consumption surveys has been found that potato consumption comparing to other European countries is one of the highest. Hence acrylamide (AA) intake coming from fried potatoes in population might be high as well. The aim of the research was to determine acrylamide content and estimate intake of acrylamide from roasted potatoes bred and cultivated in Latvia. Five common Latvian potato varieties were selected: Lenora, Brasla, Imanta, Zile, and Madara. A two-year research was conducted during two periods: just after harvesting and after six months of storage. Time and temperature (210 ± 5°C) was recorded during frying. AA was extracted from potatoes by solid phase extraction and AA content was determined by LC-MS/MS. estimated intake of acrylamide ranges from 0.012 to 0.496μgkg-1 BW per day.
Abstract: A comprehensive discussion of feasible strategies for sustainable energy supply is urgently needed to achieve a turnaround of the current energy situation. The necessary fundamentals required for the development of a long term energy vision are lacking to a great extent due to the absence of reasonable long term scenarios that fulfill the requirements of climate protection and sustainable energy use. The contribution of the study is based on a search for sustainable energy paths in the long run for Austria. The analysis makes use of secondary data predominantly. The measures developed to avoid CO2 emissions and other ecological risk factors vary to a great extent among all economic sectors. This is shown by the calculation of CO2 cost of abatement curves. In this study it is demonstrated that the most effective technical measures with the lowest CO2 abatement costs yield solutions to the current energy problems. Various scenarios are presented concerning the question how the technological and environmental options for a sustainable energy system for Austria could look like in the long run. It is shown how sustainable energy can be supplied even with today-s technological knowledge and options available. The scenarios developed include an evaluation of the economic costs and ecological impacts. The results are not only applicable to Austria but demonstrate feasible and cost efficient ways towards a sustainable future.
Abstract: In this paper, first we introduce the stable distribution, stable process and theirs characteristics. The a -stable distribution family has received great interest in the last decade due to its success in modeling data, which are too impulsive to be accommodated by the Gaussian distribution. In the second part, we propose major applications of alpha stable distribution in telecommunication, computer science such as network delays and signal processing and financial markets. At the end, we focus on using stable distribution to estimate measure of risk in stock markets and show simulated data with statistical softwares.
Abstract: Environmental micro-organisms include a large number of taxa and some species that are generally considered nonpathogenic, but can represent a risk in certain conditions, especially for elderly people and immunocompromised individuals. Chemotaxonomic identification techniques are powerful tools for environmental micro-organisms, and cellular fatty acid methyl esters (FAME) content is a powerful fingerprinting identification technique. A system based on an unsupervised artificial neural network (ANN) was set up using the fatty acid profiles of standard bacterial strains, obtained by gas-chromatography, used as learning data. We analysed 45 certified strains belonging to Acinetobacter, Aeromonas, Alcaligenes, Aquaspirillum, Arthrobacter, Bacillus, Brevundimonas, Enterobacter, Flavobacterium, Micrococcus, Pseudomonas, Serratia, Shewanella and Vibrio genera. A set of 79 bacteria isolated from a drinking water line (AMGA, the major water supply system in Genoa) were used as an example for identification compared to standard MIDI method. The resulting ANN output map was found to be a very powerful tool to identify these fresh isolates.
Abstract: Pipeline infrastructures normally represent high cost of investment and the pipeline must be free from risks that could cause environmental hazard and potential threats to personnel safety. Pipeline integrity such monitoring and management become very crucial to provide unimpeded transportation and avoiding unnecessary production deferment. Thus proper cleaning and inspection is the key to safe and reliable pipeline operation and plays an important role in pipeline integrity management program and has become a standard industry procedure. In view of this, understanding the motion (dynamic behavior), prediction and control of the PIG speed is important in executing pigging operation as it offers significant benefits, such as estimating PIG arrival time at receiving station, planning for suitable pigging operation, and improves efficiency of pigging tasks. The objective of this paper is to review recent developments in speed control system of pipeline PIGs. The review carried out would serve as an industrial application in a form of quick reference of recent developments in pipeline PIG speed control system, and further initiate others to add-in/update the list in the future leading to knowledge based data, and would attract active interest of others to share their view points.
Abstract: Trihalogenmethanes are the most significant byproducts of the reaction of disinfection agent with organic precursors naturally present in ground and surface waters.Their incidence negatively affects the quality of drinking water in relation to their nephrotoxic, hepatotoxic and genotoxic effects on human health. Taking into consideration the considerable volatility of monitored contaminants it could be assumed that their incidence in drinking water would depend on the distance of sampling from the area of disinfection. Based on the concentration of trihalogenmethanes determined with the help of gas chromatography with mass detector and the analysis of variance (ANOVA) such dependence has been proved as statistically significant. The acquired outcomes will be used for assessing the non-carcinogenic and genotoxic risks to consumers.
Abstract: Global environmental changes lead to increased frequency and scale of natural disaster, Taiwan is under the influence of global warming and extreme weather. Therefore, the vulnerability was increased and variability and complexity of disasters is relatively enhanced. The purpose of this study is to consider the source and magnitude of hazard characteristics on the tourism industry. Using modern risk management concepts, integration of related domestic and international basic research, this goes beyond the Taiwan typhoon disaster risk assessment model and evaluation of loss. This loss evaluation index system considers the impact of extreme weather, in particular heavy rain on the tourism industry in Taiwan. Consider the extreme climate of the compound impact of disaster for the tourism industry; we try to make multi-hazard risk assessment model, strategies and suggestions. Related risk analysis results are expected to provide government department, the tourism industry asset owners, insurance companies and banking include tourist disaster risk necessary information to help its tourism industry for effective natural disaster risk management.
Abstract: This study proposes and tests a rescapturing elements of perceived gain and loss that, by perceived value of medical tourism products, influencintention of potential customers. Data from 301 usable qwere tested against the research model using the structmodeling approach. The results indicated that perceivedkey predictor of customer intentions. As for benefimedical quality, service quality and enjoyment wcomponents that significantly influenced the perceptiRegarding sacrifice, the effects of perceived risk on pewere significant. The findings can provide insights intohow destination countries can make medical tourism a wfor themselves and international patients.KeywordsMedical tourism, perceived valueintention.
Abstract: Reliability Centered Maintenance(RCM) is one of
most widely used methods in the modern power system to schedule a
maintenance cycle and determine the priority of inspection. In order
to apply the RCM method to the Smart Grid, a precedence study for
the new structure of rearranged system should be performed due to
introduction of additional installation such as renewable and
sustainable energy resources, energy storage devices and advanced
metering infrastructure. This paper proposes a new method to
evaluate the priority of maintenance and inspection of the power
system facilities in the Smart Grid using the Risk Priority Number. In
order to calculate that risk index, it is required that the reliability
block diagram should be analyzed for the Smart Grid system. Finally,
the feasible technical method is discussed to estimate the risk
potential as part of the RCM procedure.
Abstract: Stock portfolio selection is a classic problem in finance,
and it involves deciding how to allocate an institution-s or an individual-s
wealth to a number of stocks, with certain investment objectives
(return and risk). In this paper, we adopt the classical Markowitz
mean-variance model and consider an additional common realistic
constraint, namely, the cardinality constraint. Thus, stock portfolio
optimization becomes a mixed-integer quadratic programming problem
and it is difficult to be solved by exact optimization algorithms.
Chemical Reaction Optimization (CRO), which mimics the molecular
interactions in a chemical reaction process, is a population-based
metaheuristic method. Two different types of CRO, named canonical
CRO and Super Molecule-based CRO (S-CRO), are proposed to solve
the stock portfolio selection problem. We test both canonical CRO
and S-CRO on a benchmark and compare their performance under
two criteria: Markowitz efficient frontier (Pareto frontier) and Sharpe
ratio. Computational experiments suggest that S-CRO is promising
in handling the stock portfolio optimization problem.
Abstract: This paper is to clarify the relationship of individual investor types, risk tolerance and herding bias. The questionnaire survey investigation is conducted to collect 389 valid and voluntary individual investors and to examine how the risk tolerance plays as a mediator between four types of personality and herding bias. Based on featuring BB&K model and reviewing the prior literature of psychology, a linear structural model are constructed and further used to evaluate the path of herding formation through the analysis of Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). The results showed that more impetuous investors would be prone to herding bias directly, but rather exhibit higher risk tolerance. However, risk tolerance would fully mediate between the level of confidence (i.e., confident or anxious) and herding bias, but not mediate between the method of action (careful or impetuous) for individual investors.
Abstract: The main aim of this study is to describe and introduce a method of numerical analysis in obtaining approximate solutions for the SIR-SI differential equations (susceptible-infectiverecovered for human populations; susceptible-infective for vector populations) that represent a model for dengue disease transmission. Firstly, we describe the ordinary differential equations for the SIR-SI disease transmission models. Then, we introduce the numerical analysis of solutions of this continuous time, discrete space SIR-SI model by simplifying the continuous time scale to a densely populated, discrete time scale. This is followed by the application of this numerical analysis of solutions of the SIR-SI differential equations to the estimation of relative risk using continuous time, discrete space dengue data of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Finally, we present the results of the analysis, comparing and displaying the results in graphs, table and maps. Results of the numerical analysis of solutions that we implemented offers a useful and potentially superior model for estimating relative risks based on continuous time, discrete space data for vector borne infectious diseases specifically for dengue disease.
Abstract: Interactive web-based computer simulations are
needed by the medical community to replicate the experience of
surgical procedures as closely and realistically as possible without
the need to practice on corpses, animals and/or plastic models. In this
paper, we offer a review on current state of the research on
simulations of surgical threads, identify future needs and present our
proposed plans to meet them. Our goal is to create a physics-based
simulator, which will predict the behavior of surgical thread when
subjected to conditions commonly encountered during surgery. To
that end, we will i) develop three dimensional finite element models
based on the Cosserat theory of elasticity ii) test and feedback results
with the medical community and iii) develop a web-based user
interface to run/command our simulator and visualize the results. The
impacts of our research are that i) it will contribute to the
development of a new generation of training for medical school
students and ii) the simulator will be useful to expert surgeons in
developing new, better and less risky procedures.
Abstract: Hypertension is characterized with stress on the heart and blood vessels thus increasing the risk of heart attack and renal diseases. The Renin angiotensin system (RAS) plays a major role in blood pressure control. Renin is the enzyme that controls the RAS at the rate-limiting step. Our aim is to develop new drug-like leads which can inhibit renin and thereby emerge as therapeutics for hypertension. To achieve this, molecular dynamics (MD) simulation and receptor-based pharmacophore modeling were implemented, and three rennin-inhibitor complex structures were selected based on IC50 value and scaffolds of inhibitors. Three pharmacophore models were generated considering conformations induced by inhibitor. The compounds mapped to these models were selected and subjected to drug-like screening. The identified hits were docked into the active site of renin. Finally, hit1 satisfying the binding mode and interaction energy was selected as possible lead candidate to be used in novel renin inhibitors.
Abstract: A virtualized and virtual approach is presented on
academically preparing students to successfully engage at a strategic
perspective to understand those concerns and measures that are both
structured and not structured in the area of cyber security and
information assurance. The Master of Science in Cyber Security and
Information Assurance (MSCSIA) is a professional degree for those
who endeavor through technical and managerial measures to ensure
the security, confidentiality, integrity, authenticity, control,
availability and utility of the world-s computing and information
systems infrastructure. The National University Cyber Security and
Information Assurance program is offered as a Master-s degree. The
emphasis of the MSCSIA program uniquely includes hands-on
academic instruction using virtual computers. This past year, 2011,
the NU facility has become fully operational using system
architecture to provide a Virtual Education Laboratory (VEL)
accessible to both onsite and online students. The first student cohort
completed their MSCSIA training this past March 2, 2012 after
fulfilling 12 courses, for a total of 54 units of college credits. The
rapid pace scheduling of one course per month is immensely
challenging, perpetually changing, and virtually multifaceted. This
paper analyses these descriptive terms in consideration of those
globalization penetration breaches as present in today-s world of
cyber security. In addition, we present current NU practices to
mitigate risks.
Abstract: Hidden failure in a protection system has been
recognized as one of the main reasons which may cause to a power
system instability leading to a system cascading collapse. This paper
presents a computationally systematic approach used to obtain the
estimated average probability of a system cascading collapse by
considering the effect of probability hidden failure in a protection
system. The estimated average probability of a system cascading
collapse is then used to determine the severe loading condition
contributing to the higher risk of critical system cascading collapse.
This information is essential to the system utility since it will assist
the operator to determine the highest point of increased system
loading condition prior to the event of critical system cascading
collapse.
Abstract: Frauds in insurance industry are one of the major
sources of operational risk of insurance companies and constitute a
significant portion of their losses. Every reasonable company on the
market aims for improving their processes of uncovering frauds and
invests their resources to reduce them. This article is addressing fraud
management area from the view of extension of existing Business
Intelligence solution. We describe the frame of such solution and
would like to share with readers all benefits brought to insurance
companies by adopting this approach in their fight against insurance
frauds.
Abstract: Fuel cells have become one of the major areas of
research in the academia and the industry. The goal of most fish
farmers is to maximize production and profits while holding labor
and management efforts to the minimum. Risk of fish kills, disease
outbreaks, poor water quality in most pond culture operations,
aeration offers the most immediate and practical solution to water
quality problems encountered at higher stocking and feeding rates.
Many units of aeration system are electrical units so using a
continuous, high reliability, affordable, and environmentally friendly
power sources is necessary. Aeration of water by using PEM fuel cell
power is not only a new application of the renewable energy, but
also, it provides an affordable method to promote biodiversity in
stagnant ponds and lakes. This paper presents a new design and
control of PEM fuel cell powered a diffused air aeration system for a
shrimp farm in Mersa Matruh in Egypt. Also Artificial intelligence
(AI) techniques control is used to control the fuel cell output power
by control input gases flow rate. Moreover the mathematical
modeling and simulation of PEM fuel cell is introduced. A
comparison study is applied between the performance of fuzzy logic
control (FLC) and neural network control (NNC). The results show
the effectiveness of NNC over FLC.