A Hybrid Neural Network and Traditional Approach for Forecasting Lumpy Demand

Accurate demand forecasting is one of the most key issues in inventory management of spare parts. The problem of modeling future consumption becomes especially difficult for lumpy patterns, which characterized by intervals in which there is no demand and, periods with actual demand occurrences with large variation in demand levels. However, many of the forecasting methods may perform poorly when demand for an item is lumpy. In this study based on the characteristic of lumpy demand patterns of spare parts a hybrid forecasting approach has been developed, which use a multi-layered perceptron neural network and a traditional recursive method for forecasting future demands. In the described approach the multi-layered perceptron are adapted to forecast occurrences of non-zero demands, and then a conventional recursive method is used to estimate the quantity of non-zero demands. In order to evaluate the performance of the proposed approach, their forecasts were compared to those obtained by using Syntetos & Boylan approximation, recently employed multi-layered perceptron neural network, generalized regression neural network and elman recurrent neural network in this area. The models were applied to forecast future demand of spare parts of Arak Petrochemical Company in Iran, using 30 types of real data sets. The results indicate that the forecasts obtained by using our proposed mode are superior to those obtained by using other methods.

On Modified Numerical Schemes in Vortex Element Method for 2D Flow Simulation Around Airfoils

The problem of incompressible steady flow simulation around an airfoil is discussed. For some simplest airfoils (circular, elliptical, Zhukovsky airfoils) the exact solution is known from complex analysis. It allows to compute the intensity of vortex layer which simulates the airfoil. Some modifications of the vortex element method are proposed and test computations are carried out. It-s shown that the these approaches are much more effective in comparison with the classical numerical scheme.

Unsteady Water Boundary Layer Flow with Non-Uniform Mass Transfer

In the present analysis an unsteady laminar forced convection water boundary layer flow is considered. The fluid properties such as viscosity and Prandtl number are taken as variables such that those are inversely proportional to temperature. By using quasi-linearization technique the nonlinear coupled partial differential equations are linearized and the numerical solutions are obtained by using implicit finite difference scheme with the appropriate selection of step sizes. Non-similar solutions have been obtained from the starting point of the stream-wise coordinate to the point where skin friction value vanishes. The effect non-uniform mass transfer along the surface of the cylinder through slot is studied on the skin friction and heat transfer coefficients.

Sustainable Development in Iranian South Coastal and Islands Using Wind Energy

The development incompatible with environment cannot be sustainable. Using renewable energy sources such as solar energy, geothermal energy and wind energy can make sustainable development in a region. Iran has a lot of renewable and nonrenewable energy resources. Since Iran has a special geographic position, it has lot of solar and wind energy resources. Both solar and wind energy are free, renewable and adaptable with environment. The study of 10 year wind data in Iranian South coastal and Islands synoptic stations shows that the production of wind power electricity and water pumping is possible in this region. In this research, we studied the local and temporal distribution of wind using three – hour statistics of windspeed in Iranian South coastal and Islands synoptic stations. This research shows that the production of wind power electricity is possible in this region all the year.

Precombining Adaptive LMMSE Detection for DS-CDMA Systems in Time Varying Channels: Non Blind and Blind Approaches

This paper deals with an adaptive multiuser detector for direct sequence code division multiple-access (DS-CDMA) systems. A modified receiver, precombinig LMMSE is considered under time varying channel environment. Detector updating is performed with two criterions, mean square estimation (MSE) and MOE optimization technique. The adaptive implementation issues of these two schemes are quite different. MSE criterion updates the filter weights by minimizing error between data vector and adaptive vector. MOE criterion together with canonical representation of the detector results in a constrained optimization problem. Even though the canonical representation is very complicated under time varying channels, it is analyzed with assumption of average power profile of multipath replicas of user of interest. The performance of both schemes is studied for practical SNR conditions. Results show that for poor SNR, MSE precombining LMMSE is better than the blind precombining LMMSE but for greater SNR, MOE scheme outperforms with better result.

An Integrated Framework for the Realtime Investigation of State Space Exploration

The objective of this paper is the introduction to a unified optimization framework for research and education. The OPTILIB framework implements different general purpose algorithms for combinatorial optimization and minimum search on standard continuous test functions. The preferences of this library are the straightforward integration of new optimization algorithms and problems as well as the visualization of the optimization process of different methods exploring the search space exclusively or for the real time visualization of different methods in parallel. Further the usage of several implemented methods is presented on the basis of two use cases, where the focus is especially on the algorithm visualization. First it is demonstrated how different methods can be compared conveniently using OPTILIB on the example of different iterative improvement schemes for the TRAVELING SALESMAN PROBLEM. A second study emphasizes how the framework can be used to find global minima in the continuous domain.

Determination of Cu and Mo Potential Targets in the Khatunabad Based on Analytical Hierarchy Process, West of Mianeh, Iran

Khatunabad area is situated geologically in Urmieh- Dokhtar magmatic belt in NW of Iran. In this research, studied area has been investigated in order to recognize the potential copper and molybdenum-bearing target areas. The survey layers include the lithologic units, alteration, geochemical result, tectonics and copper and molybdenum occurrence. As an accurate decision can have a considerable effect on exploration plans, so in this efforts have been made to make use of new combination method. For this purpose, the analytical hierarchy process was used and revealed highly potential copper and molybdenum mineralization areas. Based on achieved results, geological perspective in north of studied area is appropriate for advance stage, especially for subsurface exploration in future.

Robust Conversion of Chaos into an Arbitrary Periodic Motion

One of the most attractive and important field of chaos theory is control of chaos. In this paper, we try to present a simple framework for chaotic motion control using the feedback linearization method. Using this approach, we derive a strategy, which can be easily applied to the other chaotic systems. This task presents two novel results: the desired periodic orbit need not be a solution of the original dynamics and the other is the robustness of response against parameter variations. The illustrated simulations show the ability of these. In addition, by a comparison between a conventional state feedback and our proposed method it is demonstrated that the introduced technique is more efficient.

The Using of Rasch-Model in Validating the Arabic Version of Multiple Intelligence Development Assessment Scale (MIDAS)

This article addresses the procedures to validate the Arabic version of Multiple Intelligence Development Assessment Scale (MIDAS). The content validity was examined based on the experts- judgments on the MIDAS-s items in the Arabic version. The content of eleven items in the Arabic version of MIDAS was modified to match the Arabic context. Then a translation from original English version of MIDAS into Arabic language was performed. The reliability of the Arabic MIDAS was calculated based on test and retest method and found to be 0.85 for the overall MIDAS and for the different subscales ranging between 0.78 - 0.87. The examination of construct validity for the overall Arabic MIDAS and its subscales was established by using Winsteps program version 6 based on Rasch model in order to fit the items into the Arabic context. The findings indicated that, the eight subscales in Arabic version of MIDAS scale have a unidimensionality, and the total number of kept items in the overall scale is 108 items.

Effect of Addition of Separan at Different Concentrations as a Flocculants on Quality of Sugar Cane Juice

The study was designed to evaluate the use of low concentrations of separan flocculent (Less than 3 ppm) on physicochemical properties of sugar cane juice. Colour, pH, purity, turbidity, pol, brix, reducing sugars tannins and polyphenols of crushed cane (green and burned) juice, mixed juice and clarified juice were studied. The results showed that pol, brix, reducing sugar and turbidity are higher in crushed cane juice. Clarified burned juice had low turbidity, reducing sugars, pol and brix but had significantly lower pH, purity and colour when compared to crushed juice. Polyphenols of the crushed juice (1.19%) decreased significantly in the clarified juice to 0.006%. Addition of separan at a concentration of 0.015 ppm reduced significantly colour, polyphenols and tannins and reducing sugar compared to the control.

Effect of Strain and Storage Period on Some Qualitative and Quantitative Traits of Table Eggs

This study include the effect of strain and storage period and their interaction on some quantitative and qualitative traits and percentages of the egg components in the eggs collected at the start of production (at age 24 weeks). Eggs were divided into three storage periods (1, 7 and 14) days under refrigerator temperature (5- 7)0C. Fifty seven eggs obtained randomly from each strain including Isa Brown and Lohman White. General Linear Model within SAS programme was used to analyze the collected data and correlations between the studied traits were calculated for each strain.Average egg weight (EW), Haugh Unit (HU), yolk index (YI), yolk % (HP), albumin % (AP) and yolk to albumin ratio (YAR) was 56.629 gm, 87.968 %, 0.493, 22.13%, 67.74% and 32.76 respectively. Egg produced from ISA Brown surpassed those produced by Lohman White significantly (P

Exploring the Effects of Top Managements Commitment on Knowledge Management Success in Academia: A Case Study

In this paper the effects of top management commitment on knowledge management activities has been analyzed. This research has been conducted as a case study in an academic environment. The data collection was carried out in the form of semi-structured interview with an interview guide. This study shows the effects of knowledge management strategic plan developing in academia strategic plan on knowledge management success. This paper shows the importance top management commitment factors including strategic plan, communication, and training on knowledge management success in academia. In particular the most important role of Strategic planning in knowledge management success is clarified. This study explores one of the necessary organizational infrastructures of successful implementation of knowledge management. The idea of this research could be applied in the other context especially in the industrial organizations.

Design of Tracking Controllers for Medical Equipment Holders Using AHRS and MEMS Sensors

There are various kinds of medical equipment which requires relatively accurate positional adjustments for successful treatment. However, patients tend to move without notice during a certain span of operations. Therefore, it is common practice that accompanying operators adjust the focus of the equipment. In this paper, tracking controllers for medical equipment are suggested to replace the operators. The tracking controllers use AHRS sensor information to recognize the movements of patients. Sensor fusion is applied to reducing the error magnitudes through linear Kalman filters. The image processing of optical markers is included to adjust the accumulation errors of gyroscope sensor data especially for yaw angles. The tracking controller reduces the positional errors between the current focus of a device and the target position on the body of a patient. Since the sensing frequencies of AHRS sensors are very high compared to the physical movements, the control performance is satisfactory. The typical applications are, for example, ESWT or rTMS, which have the error ranges of a few centimeters.

A Finite Element Solution of the Mathematical Model for Smoke Dispersion from Two Sources

Smoke discharging is a main reason of air pollution problem from industrial plants. The obstacle of a building has an affect with the air pollutant discharge. In this research, a mathematical model of the smoke dispersion from two sources and one source with a structural obstacle is considered. The governing equation of the model is an isothermal mass transfer model in a viscous fluid. The finite element method is used to approximate the solutions of the model. The triangular linear elements have been used for discretising the domain, and time integration has been carried out by semi-implicit finite difference method. The simulations of smoke dispersion in cases of one chimney and two chimneys are presented. The maximum calculated smoke concentration of both cases are compared. It is then used to make the decision for smoke discharging and air pollutant control problems on industrial area.

Experimental Study of Open Water Non-Series Marine Propeller Performance

Later marine propeller is the main component of ship propulsion system. For a non-series propeller, it is difficult to indicate the open water marine propeller performance without an experimental study to measure the marine propeller parameters. In the present study, the open water performance of a non-series marine propeller has been carried out experimentally. The geometrical aspects of a commercial non-series marine propeller have been measured for a propeller blade area ratio of 0.3985. The measured propeller performance parameters were the thrust and torque coefficients for different propeller rotational speed and different water channel flow velocity, then the open water performance for the propeller has been plotted. In addition, a direct comparison between the obtained experimental results and a theoretical study of a B-series marine propeller of the same blade area ratio has been carried out. A correction factor has been introduced to apply the operating conditions of the experimental results to that of the theoretical study for the studied marine propeller.

Milling Chatter Prevention by Adaptive Spindle Speed Tuning

This paper presents how the real-time chatter prevention can be realized by feedback of acoustic cutting signal, and the efficacy of the proposed adaptive spindle speed tuning algorithm is verified by intensive experimental simulations. A pair of microphones, perpendicular to each other, is used to acquire the acoustic cutting signal resulting from milling chatter. A real-time feedback control loop is constructed for spindle speed compensation so that the milling process can be ensured to be within the stability zone of stability lobe diagram. Acoustic Chatter Signal Index (ACSI) and Spindle Speed Compensation Strategy (SSCS) are proposed to quantify the acoustic signal and actively tune the spindle speed respectively. By converting the acoustic feedback signal into ACSI, an appropriate Spindle Speed Compensation Rate (SSCR) can be determined by SSCS based on real-time chatter level or ACSI. Accordingly, the compensation command, referred to as Added-On Voltage (AOV), is applied to increase/decrease the spindle motor speed. By inspection on the precision and quality of the workpiece surface after milling, the efficacy of the real-time chatter prevention strategy via acoustic signal feedback is further assured.

Estimating the Runoff Using the Simple Tank Model and Comparing it with the SCS-CN Model - A Case Study of the Dez River Basin

Run-offs are considered as important hydrological factors in feasibility studies of river engineering and irrigation-related projects under arid and semi-arid condition. Flood control is one of the crucial factor, the management of which while mitigates its destructive consequences, abstracts considerable volume of renewable water resources. The methodology applied here was based on Mizumura, which applied a mathematical model for simple tank to simulate the rainfall-run-off process in a particular water basin using the data from the observational hydrograph. The model was applied in the Dez River water basin adjacent to Greater Dezful region, Iran in order to simulate and estimate the floods. Results indicated that the calculated hydrographs using the simple tank method, SCS-CN model and the observation hydrographs had a close proximity. It was also found that on average the flood time and discharge peaks in the simple tank were closer to the observational data than the CN method. On the other hand, the calculated flood volume in the CN model was significantly closer to the observational data than the simple tank model.

Cultural Anxiety and Its Impact on Students- Life: A Case Study of International Students in Wuhan University

This article illustrates that how non similar culture become a cause of constant anxiety among international students in China. For that, a survey was carried out among international students of Wuhan University, China. The association among non similar culture, non familiarity of Chinese culture, self finance students and food problem is looked at through a regression line, and in the light of empirical results, a model is anticipated which elucidates these results. Some suggestions were directed at the end which will help to mitigate the anxiety among prospective students in Chinese universities.

Single Spectrum End Point Predict of BOF with SVM

SVM ( Support Vector Machine ) is a new method in the artificial neural network ( ANN ). In the steel making, how to use computer to predict the end point of BOF accuracy is a great problem. A lot of method and theory have been claimed, but most of the results is not satisfied. Now the hot topic in the BOF end point predicting is to use optical way the predict the end point in the BOF. And we found that there exist some regular in the characteristic curve of the flame from the mouse of pudding. And we can use SVM to predict end point of the BOF, just single spectrum intensity should be required as the input parameter. Moreover, its compatibility for the input space is better than the BP network.

Solving Differential's Equation of Carrier Load on Semiconductor

The most suitable Semiconductor detector, Cadmium Zinc Teloraid , has unique properties because of high Atomic number and wide Brand Gap . It has been tried in this project with different processes such as Lead , Diffusion , Produce and Recombination , effect of Trapping and injection carrier of CdZnTe , to get hole and then present a complete answer of it . Then we should investigate the movement of carrier ( Electron – Hole ) by using above answer.