Abstract: This paper examines many mathematical methods for
molding the hourly price forward curve (HPFC); the model will be
constructed by numerous regression methods, like polynomial
regression, radial basic function neural networks & a furrier series.
Examination the models goodness of fit will be done by means of
statistical & graphical tools. The criteria for choosing the model will
depend on minimize the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), using the
correlation analysis approach for the regression analysis the optimal
model will be distinct, which are robust against model
misspecification. Learning & supervision technique employed to
determine the form of the optimal parameters corresponding to each
measure of overall loss. By using all the numerical methods that
mentioned previously; the explicit expressions for the optimal model
derived and the optimal designs will be implemented.
Abstract: Saturated hydraulic conductivity of Soil is an
important property in processes involving water and solute flow in
soils. Saturated hydraulic conductivity of soil is difficult to measure
and can be highly variable, requiring a large number of replicate
samples. In this study, 60 sets of soil samples were collected at
Saqhez region of Kurdistan province-IRAN. The statistics such as
Correlation Coefficient (R), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean
Bias Error (MBE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) were used to
evaluation the multiple linear regression models varied with number
of dataset. In this study the multiple linear regression models were
evaluated when only percentage of sand, silt, and clay content (SSC)
were used as inputs, and when SSC and bulk density, Bd, (SSC+Bd)
were used as inputs. The R, RMSE, MBE and MAE values of the 50
dataset for method (SSC), were calculated 0.925, 15.29, -1.03 and
12.51 and for method (SSC+Bd), were calculated 0.927, 15.28,-1.11
and 12.92, respectively, for relationship obtained from multiple
linear regressions on data. Also the R, RMSE, MBE and MAE values
of the 10 dataset for method (SSC), were calculated 0.725, 19.62, -
9.87 and 18.91 and for method (SSC+Bd), were calculated 0.618,
24.69, -17.37 and 22.16, respectively, which shows when number of
dataset increase, precision of estimated saturated hydraulic
conductivity, increases.
Abstract: The recurring decimal of rural and urban poverty in
Nigeria, resulting from lack of sustainable livelihood activities by
the people due to non-diversification of the economy, necessitated
this study. One hundred snail farmers were randomly selected in
Akure North and Akure South Local Government areas of Ondo
State, Southwest Nigeria where snail farming is widely practised.
Data collection was through questionnaires administration and onsite
observation of farms. Data obtained were subjected to
descriptive statistics, Student-s t-test and regression analysis. Cost
benefit ratio (CBR) and rate of return on investment (RORI) were
calculated in order to determine the poverty alleviation potentials of
snail farming in the study areas. Although snail farming was
profitable and viable, it was below poverty line. With time and more
knowledge in its farming activities, and with more people taking to
snail production, its poverty alleviation and reduction potentials will
increase.
Abstract: Exploding concentrated underwater charges to
damage underwater structures such as ship hulls is a part of naval
warfare strategies. Adding small amounts of foreign particles (like
clay or silica) of nanosize significantly improves the engineering
properties of the polymers. In the present work the clay in terms 1, 2
and 3 percent by weight was surface treated with a suitable silane
agent. The hybrid nanocomposite was prepared by the hand lay-up
technique. Mathematical regression models have been employed for
theoretical prediction. This will result in considerable savings in terms of project time, effort and cost.
Abstract: This paper examines the impact of information and
communication technology (ICT) usage, internal relationship,
supplier-retailer relationship, logistics services and inventory
management on convenience store suppliers- performance. Data was
collected from 275 convenience store managers in Malaysia using a
set of questionnaire. The multiple linear regression results indicate
that inventory management, supplier-retailer relationship, logistics
services and internal relationship are predictors of supplier
performance as perceived by convenience store managers. However,
ICT usage is not a predictor of supplier performance. The study
focuses only on convenience stores and petrol station convenience
stores and concentrates only on managers. The results provide
insights to suppliers who serve convenience stores and possibly
similar retail format on factors to consider in improving their service
to retailers. The results also provide insights to government in its
aspiration to improve business operations of convenience store to
consider ways to enhance the adoption of ICT by retailers and
suppliers.
Abstract: The present study was done primarily to address two major research gaps: firstly, development of an empirical measure of life meaningfulness for substance users and secondly, to determine the psychosocial determinants of life meaningfulness among the substance users. The study is classified into two phases: the first phase which dealt with development of Life Meaningfulness Scale and the second phase which examined the relationship between life meaningfulness and social support, abstinence self efficacy and depression. Both qualitative and quantitative approaches were used for framing items. A Principal Component Analysis yielded three components: Overall Goal Directedness, Striving for healthy lifestyle and Concern for loved ones which collectively accounted for 42.06% of the total variance. The scale and its subscales were also found to be highly reliable. Multiple regression analyses in the second phase of the study revealed that social support and abstinence self efficacy significantly predicted life meaningfulness among 48 recovering inmates of a de-addiction center while level of depression failed to predict life meaningfulness.
Abstract: The adsorption of simulated aqueous solution containing textile remazol reactive dye, namely Red 3BS by palm shell activated carbon (PSAC) as adsorbent was carried out using Response Surface Methodology (RSM). A Box-Behnken design in three most important operating variables; initial dye concentration, dosage of adsorbent and speed of impeller was employed for experimental design and optimization of results. The significance of independent variables and their interactions were tested by means of the analysis of variance (ANOVA) with 95% confidence limits. Model indicated that with the increasing of dosage and speed give the result of removal up to 90% with the capacity uptake more than 7 mg/g. High regression coefficient between the variables and the response (R-Sq = 93.9%) showed of good evaluation of experimental data by polynomial regression model.
Abstract: This paper develops the fiscal health index of 21 local
governments in Taiwan over the 1984 to 2010 period. A quantile
regression analysis was used to explore the extent that economic
variables, political budget cycles, and legislative checks and balances,
impact different quantiles of fiscal health index for a country over a
sample period of time. Our findings suggest that local governments at
the lower quantile are significantly benefited from political budget
cycles and the increase in central government revenues, while
legislative effective checks and balances and the increase in central
government expenditures have a significantly negative effect on local
fiscal health. When local governments are in the upper tail of the
distribution, legislative checks and balances and growth in
macroeconomics have significant and adverse effects on the fiscal
health of local governments. However, increases in central
government revenues have significant and positive effects on the
health status of local government in Taiwan.
Abstract: Perturbed-Chain Statistical Association Fluid Theory (PC-SAFT) equation of state (EOS) is a modified SAFT EOS with three pure component specific parameters: segment number (m), diameter (σ) and energy (ε). These PC-SAFT parameters need to be determined for each component under the conditions of interest by fitting experimental data, such as vapor pressure, density or heat capacity. PC-SAFT parameters for propane, ethylene and hydrogen in supercritical region were successfully estimated by fitting experimental density data available in literature. The regressed PCSAFT parameters were compared with the literature values by means of estimating pure component density and calculating average absolute deviation between the estimated and experimental density values. PC-SAFT parameters available in literature especially for ethylene and hydrogen estimated density in supercritical region reasonably well. However, the regressed PC-SAFT parameters performed better in supercritical region than the PC-SAFT parameters from literature.
Abstract: This study presents a new approach based on Tanaka's
fuzzy linear regression (FLP) algorithm to solve well-known power
system economic load dispatch problem (ELD). Tanaka's fuzzy linear
regression (FLP) formulation will be employed to compute the
optimal solution of optimization problem after linearization. The
unknowns are expressed as fuzzy numbers with a triangular
membership function that has middle and spread value reflected on
the unknowns. The proposed fuzzy model is formulated as a linear
optimization problem, where the objective is to minimize the sum of
the spread of the unknowns, subject to double inequality constraints.
Linear programming technique is employed to obtain the middle and
the symmetric spread for every unknown (power generation level).
Simulation results of the proposed approach will be compared with
those reported in literature.
Abstract: This study examines the issue of recommendation
sources from the perspectives of gender and consumers- perceived
risk, and validates a model for the antecedents of consumer online
purchases. The method of obtaining quantitative data was that of the
instrument of a survey questionnaire. Data were collected via
questionnaires from 396 undergraduate students aged 18-24, and a
multiple regression analysis was conducted to identify causal
relationships. Empirical findings established the link between
recommendation sources (word-of-mouth, advertising, and
recommendation systems) and the likelihood of making online
purchases and demonstrated the role of gender and perceived risk as
moderators in this context. The results showed that the effects of
word-of-mouth on online purchase intentions were stronger than those
of advertising and recommendation systems. In addition, female
consumers have less experience with online purchases, so they may be
more likely than males to refer to recommendations during the
decision-making process. The findings of the study will help
marketers to address the recommendation factor which influences
consumers- intention to purchase and to improve firm performances to
meet consumer needs.
Abstract: This research details a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) approach to model fluid flow in a journal bearing with 8 equispaced semi-circular axial grooves. Water is used as the lubricant and is fed from one end of the bearing to the other, under pressure. The geometry of the bearing is modeled using a commercially available modeling software GAMBIT and the flow analysis is performed using a dedicated CFD analysis software FLUENT. The pressure distribution in the bearing clearance is obtained from FLUENT for various whirl ratios and is used to calculate the hydrodynamic force components in the radial and tangential direction of the bearing. These values along with the various whirl speeds can be used to do a regression analysis to determine the stiffness and damping coefficients. The values obtained are then compared with the stiffness and damping coefficients of a 3 Axial groove water lubricated journal bearing and those obtained from a FORTRAN code for a similar bearing.
Abstract: The purpose of this study is mainly to predict collision
frequency on the horizontal tangents combined with vertical curves
using artificial neural network methods. The proposed ANN models
are compared with existing regression models. First, the variables
that affect collision frequency were investigated. It was found that
only the annual average daily traffic, section length, access density,
the rate of vertical curvature, smaller curve radius before and after
the tangent were statistically significant according to related
combinations. Second, three statistical models (negative binomial,
zero inflated Poisson and zero inflated negative binomial) were
developed using the significant variables for three alignment
combinations. Third, ANN models are developed by applying the
same variables for each combination. The results clearly show that
the ANN models have the lowest mean square error value than those
of the statistical models. Similarly, the AIC values of the ANN
models are smaller to those of the regression models for all the
combinations. Consequently, the ANN models have better statistical
performances than statistical models for estimating collision
frequency. The ANN models presented in this paper are
recommended for evaluating the safety impacts 3D alignment
elements on horizontal tangents.
Abstract: This paper investigates the development of weld zone
in Resistance Spot Welding (RSW) which focuses on weld nugget and Heat Affected Zone (HAZ). The effects of four factors namely
weld current, weld time, electrode force and hold time were studied using a general 24 factorial design augmented by five centre points. The results of the analysis showed that all selected factors except
hold time exhibit significant effect on weld nugget radius and HAZ size. Optimization of the welding parameters (weld current, weld
time and electrode force) to normalize weld nugget and to minimize
HAZ size was then conducted using Central Composite Design (CCD) in Response Surface Methodology (RSM) and the optimum
parameters were determined. A regression model for radius of weld nugget and HAZ size was developed and its adequacy was evaluated.
The experimental results obtained under optimum operating conditions were then compared with the predicted values and were
found to agree satisfactorily with each other
Abstract: This study aims at providing empirical evidence on a
comparison of two equity valuation models: (1) the dividend discount
model (DDM) and (2) the residual income model (RIM), in
estimating equity values of Thai firms during 1995-2004. Results
suggest that DDM and RIM underestimate equity values of Thai
firms and that RIM outperforms DDM in predicting cross-sectional
stock prices. Results on regression of cross-sectional stock prices on
the decomposed DDM and RIM equity values indicate that book
value of equity provides the greatest incremental explanatory power,
relative to other components in DDM and RIM terminal values,
suggesting that book value distortions resulting from accounting
procedures and choices are less severe than forecast and
measurement errors in discount rates and growth rates.
We also document that the incremental explanatory power of book
value of equity during 1998-2004, representing the information
environment under Thai Accounting Standards reformed after the
1997 economic crisis to conform to International Accounting
Standards, is significantly greater than that during 1995-1996,
representing the information environment under the pre-reformed
Thai Accounting Standards. This implies that the book value
distortions are less severe under the 1997 Reformed Thai Accounting
Standards than the pre-reformed Thai Accounting Standards.
Abstract: Response surface methodology (RSM) is a very
efficient tool to provide a good practical insight into developing new
process and optimizing them. This methodology could help
engineers to raise a mathematical model to represent the behavior of
system as a convincing function of process parameters.
Through this paper the sequential nature of the RSM surveyed for process
engineers and its relationship to design of experiments (DOE), regression
analysis and robust design reviewed. The proposed four-step procedure in
two different phases could help system analyst to resolve the parameter
design problem involving responses. In order to check accuracy of the
designed model, residual analysis and prediction error sum of squares
(PRESS) described.
It is believed that the proposed procedure in this study can resolve a
complex parameter design problem with one or more responses. It can be
applied to those areas where there are large data sets and a number of
responses are to be optimized simultaneously. In addition, the proposed
procedure is relatively simple and can be implemented easily by using
ready-made standard statistical packages.
Abstract: In this paper, the concepts of dichotomous logistic
regression (DLR) with leave-one-out (L-O-O) were discussed. To
illustrate this, the L-O-O was run to determine the importance of the
simulation conditions for robust test of spread procedures with good
Type I error rates. The resultant model was then evaluated. The
discussions included 1) assessment of the accuracy of the model, and
2) parameter estimates. These were presented and illustrated by
modeling the relationship between the dichotomous dependent
variable (Type I error rates) with a set of independent variables (the
simulation conditions). The base SAS software containing PROC
LOGISTIC and DATA step functions can be making used to do the
DLR analysis.
Abstract: To extract the important physiological factors related to
diabetes from an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) by mathematical
modeling, highly informative but convenient protocols are required.
Current models require a large number of samples and extended
period of testing, which is not practical for daily use. The purpose
of this study is to make model assessments possible even from a
reduced number of samples taken over a relatively short period.
For this purpose, test values were extrapolated using a support
vector machine. A good correlation was found between reference and
extrapolated values in evaluated 741 OGTTs. This result indicates
that a reduction in the number of clinical test is possible through a
computational approach.
Abstract: This paper introduces a technique of distortion
estimation in image watermarking using Genetic Programming (GP).
The distortion is estimated by considering the problem of obtaining a
distorted watermarked signal from the original watermarked signal as
a function regression problem. This function regression problem is
solved using GP, where the original watermarked signal is
considered as an independent variable. GP-based distortion
estimation scheme is checked for Gaussian attack and Jpeg
compression attack. We have used Gaussian attacks of different
strengths by changing the standard deviation. JPEG compression
attack is also varied by adding various distortions. Experimental
results demonstrate that the proposed technique is able to detect the
watermark even in the case of strong distortions and is more robust
against attacks.
Abstract: It is difficult to judge ripeness by outward
characteristics such as size or external color. In this paper a nondestructive
method was studied to determine watermelon (Crimson
Sweet) quality. Responses of samples to excitation vibrations were
detected using laser Doppler vibrometry (LDV) technology. Phase
shift between input and output vibrations were extracted overall
frequency range. First and second were derived using frequency
response spectrums. After nondestructive tests, watermelons were
sensory evaluated. So the samples were graded in a range of ripeness
based on overall acceptability (total desired traits consumers).
Regression models were developed to predict quality using obtained
results and sample mass. The determination coefficients of the
calibration and cross validation models were 0.89 and 0.71
respectively. This study demonstrated feasibility of information
which is derived vibration response curves for predicting fruit
quality. The vibration response of watermelon using the LDV method
is measured without direct contact; it is accurate and timely, which
could result in significant advantage for classifying watermelons
based on consumer opinions.