Abstract: Reservoirs are being contaminated all around the world with point source and Non-Point Source (NPS) pollution. The most common NPS pollutants are sediments and nutrients. Krishnagiri Reservoir (KR) has been chosen for the present case study, which is located in the tropical semi-arid climatic zone of Tamil Nadu, South India. It is the main source of surface water in Krishnagiri district to meet the freshwater demands. The reservoir has lost about 40% of its water holding capacity due to sedimentation over the period of 50 years. Hence, from the research and management perspective, there is a need for a sound knowledge on the spatial and seasonal variations of KR water quality. The present study encompasses the specific objectives as (i) to investigate the longitudinal heterogeneity and seasonal variations of physicochemical parameters, nutrients and biological characteristics of KR water and (ii) to examine the extent of degradation of water quality in KR. 15 sampling points were identified by uniform stratified method and a systematic monthly sampling strategy was selected due to high dynamic nature in its hydrological characteristics. The physicochemical parameters, major ions, nutrients and Chlorophyll a (Chl a) were analysed. Trophic status of KR was classified by using Carlson's Trophic State Index (TSI). All statistical analyses were performed by using Statistical Package for Social Sciences programme, version-16.0. Spatial maps were prepared for Chl a using Arc GIS. Observations in KR pointed out that electrical conductivity and major ions are highly variable factors as it receives inflow from the catchment with different land use activities. The study of major ions in KR exhibited different trends in their values and it could be concluded that as the monsoon progresses the major ions in the water decreases or water quality stabilizes. The inflow point of KR showed comparatively higher concentration of nutrients including nitrate, soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), total phosphors (TP), total suspended phosphorus (TSP) and total dissolved phosphorus (TDP) during monsoon seasons. This evidently showed the input of significant amount of nutrients from the catchment side through agricultural runoff. High concentration of TDP and TSP at the lacustrine zone of the reservoir during summer season evidently revealed that there was a significant release of phosphorus from the bottom sediments. Carlson’s TSI of KR ranged between 81 and 92 during northeast monsoon and summer seasons. High and permanent Cyanobacterial bloom in KR could be mainly due to the internal loading of phosphorus from the bottom sediments. According to Carlson’s TSI classification Krishnagiri reservoir was ranked in the hyper-eutrophic category. This study provides necessary basic data on the spatio-temporal variations of water quality in KR and also proves the impact of point and NPS pollution from the catchment area. High TSI warrants a greater threat for the recovery of internal P loading and hyper-eutrophic condition of KR. Several expensive internal measures for the reduction of internal loading of P were introduced by many scientists. However, the outcome of the present research suggests for the innovative algae harvesting technique for the removal of sediment nutrients.
Abstract: Intense oxidative stress, increased glycated hemoglobin and mineral imbalance represent risk factors for complications in diabetic patients. Cardiovascular complications are most common in these patients, including nephropathy. This study was conducted in 2015 at the Procardia Laboratory in Tîrgu Mureș, Romania on 40 type 2 diabetic adults. Routine biochemical tests were performed on the Konleab 20XTi analyzer (serum glucose, total cholesterol, LDL and HDL cholesterol, triglyceride, creatinine, urea). We also measured serum uric acid, magnesium and calcium concentration by photometric procedures, potassium, sodium and chloride by ion selective electrode, and chromium by atomic absorption spectrometry in a group of patients. Glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) dosage was made by reflectometry. Urine analysis was performed using the HandUReader equipment. The level of oxidative stress was measured by serum malondialdehyde dosage using the thiobarbituric acid reactive substances method. MDRD (Modification of Diet in Renal Disease) formula was applied for calculation of creatinine-derived glomerular filtration rate. GraphPad InStat software was used for statistical analysis of the data. The diabetic subject included in the study presented high MDA concentrations, showing intense oxidative stress. Calcium was deficient in 5% of the patients, chromium deficiency was present in 28%. The atherogenic cholesterol fraction was elevated in 13% of the patients. Positive correlation was found between creatinine and MDRD-creatinine values (p
Abstract: The problem of conjugate free convection in a square
cavity filled with nanofluid and heated from below by spatial wall
temperature is studied numerically using the finite difference method.
Water-based nanofluid with copper nanoparticles are chosen for the
investigation. Governing equations are solved over a wide range
of nanoparticle volume fraction (0 ≤ φ ≤ 0.2), wave number
((0 ≤ λ ≤ 4) and thermal conductivity ratio (0.44 ≤ Kr ≤ 6). The
results presented for values of the governing parameters in terms of
streamlines, isotherms and average Nusselt number. It is found that
the flow behavior and the heat distribution are clearly enhanced with
the increment of the non-uniform heating.
Abstract: The disposal of waste plastics has become a major worldwide environmental problem. Pyrolysis of waste plastics is one of the routes to waste minimization and recycling that has been gaining interest. In pyrolysis, the pyrolysed material is separated into gas, liquid (both are fuel) and solid (char) products. All fractions have utilities and economical value depending upon their characteristics. The first objective of this study is to determine the co-pyrolysis product fractions of waste HDPE- (high density polyethylene) and LDPE (low density polyethylene)-olive pomace (OP) and to determine the qualities of the solid product char. Chars obtained at 700 °C pyrolysis were used in biocomposite preparation as additive. As the second objective, the effects of char on biocomposite quality were investigated. Pyrolysis runs were performed at temperature 700 °C with heating rates of 5 °C/min. Biocomposites were prepared by mixing of chars with bisphenol-F type epoxy resin in various wt%. Biocomposite properties were determined by measuring electrical conductivity, surface hardness, Young’s modulus and tensile strength of the composites. The best electrical conductivity results were obtained with HDPE-OP char. For HDPE-OP char and LDPE-OP char, compared to neat epoxy, the tensile strength values of the composites increased by 102% and 78%, respectively, at 10% char dose. The hardness measurements showed similar results to the tensile tests, since there is a correlation between the hardness and the tensile strength.
Abstract: Cultural setup is varied from country to country and nation to nation, but the ability to adapt successfully to the new cultural setup may pave the way toward the development of cultural intelligence. Overcoming differences may require to build up our personality with the ability to learn, exchange thoughts, and have a constructive dream. Adaptation processes can be accelerated if we effectively utilize our cultural diversity. This can be done through a unified body or society; people with common goals can collectively work to satisfy their values. Narrowing the gap between developed and developing countries is of prime importance. Many international organizations are trying to resolve these issues by rational and peaceful means. Failing to understand the cultural differences, mentalities, strengths and weaknesses of developed and developing countries led to the collapse of many partnerships. Establishment of a neutral body influenced by developed countries intellectuality and developing countries personality may offer a better understanding and reasonable solutions, suggestions, advice that may assist in narrowing gaps and promote-strengthening relationship between developed and developing countries. The key issues, goals, and potential concepts associated with initiating Swiss scientific society for developing countries as a model to facilitate integration of highly skilled scientists are discussed.
Abstract: A distributor of Apple products' experiences numerous difficulties in developing marketing strategies for new and existing mobile product entries that maximize customer satisfaction and the firm's profitability. This research, therefore, integrates market segmentation in platform-based product family design and conjoint analysis to identify iSystem combinations that increase customer satisfaction and business profits. First, the enhanced market segmentation grid is created. Then, the estimated demand model is formulated. Finally, the profit models are constructed then used to determine the ideal product family design that maximizes profit. Conjoint analysis is used to explore customer preferences with their satisfaction levels. A total of 200 surveys are collected about customer preferences. Then, simulation is used to determine the importance values for each attribute. Finally, sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the product family design that maximizes both objectives. In conclusion, the results of this research shall provide great support to Apple distributors in determining the best marketing strategies that enhance their market share.
Abstract: In this study, we report calculations of gate capacitance of AlGaN/GaN HEMTs with nextnano device simulation software. We have used a physical gate capacitance model for III-V FETs that incorporates quantum capacitance and centroid capacitance in the channel. These simulations explore various device structures with different values of barrier thickness and channel thickness. A detailed understanding of the impact of gate capacitance in HEMTs will allow us to determine their role in future 10 nm physical gate length node.
Abstract: Conventional wastewater treatment plants of activated carbon, electrodialysis, ion exchange, reverse osmosis etc. are expensive to install, operate and maintain especially in developing countries; therefore, the use of aquatic macrophytes for wastewater purification is a viable alternative. On the first day of experimentation, approximately 100g of water hyacinth was introduced into the hydroponic units in four replicates. The water quality parameters measured were total suspended solids (TSS), pH and electrical conductivity (EC). Others were concentration of ammonium–nitrogen (NH4+-N), nitrite-nitrogen (NO2--N), nitrate-nitrogen (NO3--N), phosphate–phosphorus (PO43--P), and biomass value. At phytoremediation intervals of 7, 14, 21 and 28 days, the biomass recorded were 438.2 g, 600.7 g, 688.2 g and 725.7 g. Water hyacinth was able to reduce the pollutant concentration of all the selected parameter. The percentage reduction of pH ranged from 1.9% to 14.7%, EC from 49.8% to 97.0%, TDS from 50.4% to 97.6%, TSS from 34.0% to 78.3%, NH4+-N from 38.9% to 85.2%, NO2--N from 0% to 84.6%, NO3--N from 63.2% to 98.8% and PO43--P from 10% to 88.0%. Paired sample t-test shows that at 95% confidence level, it can be concluded statistically that the inequality between the pre-treatment and post-treatment values are significant. This suggests that the use of water hyacinth is valuable in the design and operation of aquaculture effluent treatment and should therefore be adopted by environmental and wastewater managers.
Abstract: Pollutants from aquacultural practices constitute environmental problems and phytoremediation could offer cheaper environmentally sustainable alternative since equipment using advanced treatment for fish tank effluent is expensive to import, install, operate and maintain, especially in developing countries. The main objective of this research was, therefore, to develop a mathematical model for phytoremediation by aquatic plants in aquaculture wastewater. Other objectives were to evaluate the retention times on phytoremediation rates using the model and to measure the nutrient level of the aquaculture effluent and phytoremediation rates of three aquatic macrophytes, namely; water hyacinth (Eichornia crassippes), water lettuce (Pistial stratoites) and morning glory (Ipomea asarifolia). A completely randomized experimental design was used in the study. Approximately 100 g of each macrophyte were introduced into the hydroponic units and phytoremediation indices monitored at 8 different intervals from the first to the 28th day. The water quality parameters measured were pH and electrical conductivity (EC). Others were concentration of ammonium–nitrogen (NH4+ -N), nitrite- nitrogen (NO2- -N), nitrate- nitrogen (NO3- -N), phosphate –phosphorus (PO43- -P), and biomass value. The biomass produced by water hyacinth was 438.2 g, 600.7 g, 688.2 g and 725.7 g at four 7–day intervals. The corresponding values for water lettuce were 361.2 g, 498.7 g, 561.2 g and 623.7 g and for morning glory were 417.0 g, 567.0 g, 642.0 g and 679.5g. Coefficient of determination was greater than 80% for EC, TDS, NO2- -N, NO3- -N and 70% for NH4+ -N using any of the macrophytes and the predicted values were within the 95% confidence interval of measured values. Therefore, the model is valuable in the design and operation of phytoremediation systems for aquaculture effluent.
Abstract: The identification and evaluation of organic and inorganic pollutants were performed in a flexographic facility in Novi Sad, Serbia. Air samples were collected and analyzed in situ, during 4-hours working time at five sampling points by the mobile gas chromatograph and ozonometer at the printing of collagen casing. Experimental results showed that the concentrations of isopropyl alcohol, acetone, total volatile organic compounds and ozone varied during the sampling times. The highest average concentrations of 94.80 ppm and 102.57 ppm were achieved at 200 minutes from starting the production for isopropyl alcohol and total volatile organic compounds, respectively. The mutual dependences between target hazardous and microclimate parameters were confirmed using a multiple linear regression model with software package STATISTICA 10. Obtained multiple coefficients of determination in the case of ozone and acetone (0.507 and 0.589) with microclimate parameters indicated a moderate correlation between the observed variables. However, a strong positive correlation was obtained for isopropyl alcohol and total volatile organic compounds (0.760 and 0.852) with microclimate parameters. Higher values of parameter F than Fcritical for all examined dependences indicated the existence of statistically significant difference between the concentration levels of target pollutants and microclimates parameters. Given that, the microclimate parameters significantly affect the emission of investigated gases and the application of eco-friendly materials in production process present a necessity.
Abstract: CO2 capture and storage technologies play a significant role in contributing to the control of climate change through the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere. The present study evaluates and optimizes CO2 capture through a process, where carbon dioxide is passed into pH adjusted high salinity water and reacted with sodium chloride to form a precipitate of sodium bicarbonate. This process is based on a modified Solvay process with higher CO2 capture efficiency, higher sodium removal, and higher pH level without the use of ammonia. The process was tested in a bubble column semi-batch reactor and was optimized using response surface methodology (RSM). CO2 capture efficiency and sodium removal were optimized in terms of major operating parameters based on four levels and variables in Central Composite Design (CCD). The operating parameters were gas flow rate (0.5–1.5 L/min), reactor temperature (10 to 50 oC), buffer concentration (0.2-2.6%) and water salinity (25-197 g NaCl/L). The experimental data were fitted to a second-order polynomial using multiple regression and analyzed using analysis of variance (ANOVA). The optimum values of the selected variables were obtained using response optimizer. The optimum conditions were tested experimentally using desalination reject brine with salinity ranging from 65,000 to 75,000 mg/L. The CO2 capture efficiency in 180 min was 99% and the maximum sodium removal was 35%. The experimental and predicted values were within 95% confidence interval, which demonstrates that the developed model can successfully predict the capture efficiency and sodium removal using the modified Solvay method.
Abstract: The problem under research is that of unpredictable modes occurring in two-stage centrifugal hydraulic pump as a result of hydraulic processes caused by vibrations of structural components. Numerical, analytical and experimental approaches are considered. A hypothesis was developed that the problem of unpredictable pressure decrease at the second stage of centrifugal pumps is caused by cavitation effects occurring upon vibration. The problem has been studied experimentally and theoretically as of today. The theoretical study was conducted numerically and analytically. Hydroelastic processes in dynamic “liquid – deformed structure” system were numerically modelled and analysed. Using ANSYS CFX program engineering analysis complex and computing capacity of a supercomputer the cavitation parameters were established to depend on vibration parameters. An influence domain of amplitudes and vibration frequencies on concentration of cavitation bubbles was formulated. The obtained numerical solution was verified using CFM program package developed in PNRPU. The package is based on a differential equation system in hyperbolic and elliptic partial derivatives. The system is solved by using one of finite-difference method options – the particle-in-cell method. The method defines the problem solution algorithm. The obtained numerical solution was verified analytically by model problem calculations with the use of known analytical solutions of in-pipe piston movement and cantilever rod end face impact. An infrastructure consisting of an experimental fast hydro-dynamic processes research installation and a supercomputer connected by a high-speed network, was created to verify the obtained numerical solutions. Physical experiments included measurement, record, processing and analysis of data for fast processes research by using National Instrument signals measurement system and Lab View software. The model chamber end face oscillated during physical experiments and, thus, loaded the hydraulic volume. The loading frequency varied from 0 to 5 kHz. The length of the operating chamber varied from 0.4 to 1.0 m. Additional loads weighed from 2 to 10 kg. The liquid column varied from 0.4 to 1 m high. Liquid pressure history was registered. The experiment showed dependence of forced system oscillation amplitude on loading frequency at various values: operating chamber geometrical dimensions, liquid column height and structure weight. Maximum pressure oscillation (in the basic variant) amplitudes were discovered at loading frequencies of approximately 1,5 kHz. These results match the analytical and numerical solutions in ANSYS and CFM.
Abstract: Hybrid propulsion combines beneficial properties of both solid and liquid rockets, such as multiple restarts, throttability as well as simplicity and reduced costs. A nitrous oxide (N2O)/paraffin-based hybrid rocket engine demonstrator is currently under development at the Italian Aerospace Research Center (CIRA) within the national research program HYPROB, funded by the Italian Ministry of Research. Nitrous oxide belongs to the class of self-pressurizing propellants that exhibit a high vapor pressure at standard ambient temperature. This peculiar feature makes those fluids very attractive for space rocket applications because it avoids the use of complex pressurization systems, leading to great benefits in terms of weight savings and reliability. To avoid feed-system-coupled instabilities, the phase change is required to occur through the injectors. In this regard, the oxidizer is stored in liquid condition while target chamber pressures are designed to lie below vapor pressure. The consequent cavitation and flash vaporization constitute a remarkably complex phenomenology that arises great modelling challenges. Thus, it is clear that the design of the injection system is fundamental for the full exploitation of hybrid rocket engine throttability. The Analytical Hierarchy Process has been used to select the injection architecture as best compromise among different design criteria such as functionality, technology innovation and cost. The impossibility to use engineering simplified relations for the dimensioning of the injectors led to the needs of applying a numerical approach based on OpenFOAM®. The numerical tool has been validated with selected experimental data from literature. Quantitative, as well as qualitative comparisons are performed in terms of mass flow rate and pressure drop across the injector for several operating conditions. The results show satisfactory agreement with the experimental data. Modeling assumptions, together with their impact on numerical predictions are discussed in the paper. Once assessed the reliability of the numerical tool, the injection plate has been designed and sized to guarantee the required amount of oxidizer in the combustion chamber and therefore to assure high combustion efficiency. To this purpose, the plate has been designed with multiple injectors whose number and diameter have been selected in order to reach the requested mass flow rate for the two operating conditions of maximum and minimum thrust. The overall design has been finally verified through three-dimensional computations in cavitating non-reacting conditions and it has been verified that the proposed design solution is able to guarantee the requested values of mass flow rates.
Abstract: In this paper, triangular lattice index-guiding photonic crystal fibers (PCFs) are synthesized to compensate the chromatic dispersion of a single mode fiber (SMF-28) for an 80 km optical link operating at 1.55 µm, by using the directed tabu search algorithm. Hole-to-hole distance, circular air-hole diameter, solid-core diameter, ring number and PCF length parameters are optimized for this purpose. Three Synthesized PCFs with different physical parameters are compared in terms of their objective functions values, residual dispersions and compensation ratios.
Abstract: Through the exploration of the lived experiences, beliefs and values of instructional leaders, teachers and students in Finland, Germany and Canada, we investigated the factors which contribute to developmentally responsive, intellectually engaging middle-level learning environments for early adolescents. Student-centred leadership dimensions, effective instructional practices and student agency were examined through the lens of current policy and research on middle-level learning environments emerging from the Canadian province of Manitoba. Consideration of these three research perspectives in the context of early adolescent learning, placed against an international backdrop, provided a previously undocumented perspective on leading, teaching and learning in the middle years. Aligning with a social constructivist, qualitative research paradigm, the study incorporated collective case study methodology, along with constructivist grounded theory methods of data analysis. Data were collected through semi-structured individual and focus group interviews and document review, as well as direct and participant observation. Three case study narratives were developed to share the rich stories of study participants, who had been selected using maximum variation and intensity sampling techniques. Interview transcript data were coded using processes from constructivist grounded theory. A cross-case analysis yielded a conceptual framework highlighting key factors that were found to be significant in the establishment of developmentally responsive, intellectually engaging middle-level learning environments. Seven core categories emerged from the cross-case analysis as common to all three countries. Within the visual conceptual framework (which depicts the interconnected nature of leading, teaching and learning in middle-level learning environments), these seven core categories were grouped into Essential Factors (student agency, voice and choice), Contextual Factors (instructional practices; school culture; engaging families and the community), Synergistic Factors (instructional leadership) and Cornerstone Factors (education as a fundamental cultural value; preservice, in-service and ongoing teacher development). In addition, sub-factors emerged from recurring codes in the data and identified specific characteristics and actions found in developmentally responsive, intellectually engaging middle-level learning environments. Although this study focused on 12 schools in Finland, Germany and Canada, it informs the practice of educators working with early adolescent learners in middle-level learning environments internationally. The authentic voices of early adolescent learners are the most important resource educators have to gauge if they are creating effective learning environments for their students. Ongoing professional dialogue and learning is essential to ensure teachers are supported in their work and develop the pedagogical practices needed to meet the needs of early adolescent learners. It is critical to balance consistency, coherence and dependability in the school environment with the necessary flexibility in order to support the unique learning needs of early adolescents. Educators must intentionally create a school culture that unites teachers, students and their families in support of a common purpose, as well as nurture positive relationships between the school and its community. A large, urban school district in Canada has implemented a school cohort-based model to begin to bring developmentally responsive, intellectually engaging middle-level learning environments to scale.
Abstract: Experimental results confirmed the temporal variation of carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide concentration during the working shift of the photocopying process in a small photocopying shop in Novi Sad, Serbia. The statistically significant differences of target gases were examined with two-way analysis of variance without replication followed by Scheffe's post hoc test. The existence of statistically significant differences was obtained for carbon monoxide emission which is pointed out with F-values (12.37 and 31.88) greater than Fcrit (6.94) in contrary to carbon dioxide emission (F-values of 1.23 and 3.12 were less than Fcrit). Scheffe's post hoc test indicated that sampling point A (near the photocopier machine) and second time interval contribute the most on carbon monoxide emission.
Abstract: The industries of construction are in continuous growth not only in Middle East rejoin but almost all over the world. For the last fifteen years, big expansion and increase of different types of projects has been observed. Many infrastructural projects have been developed, high rise buildings, big shopping malls, power sub-stations, roads, bridges, schools, universities and developing many of new cities with full and complete facilities. The growth and enlargement of the mentioned developed projects has been accomplished through many international and local contracting organizations. Senior management of these organizations depend on their qualified and experienced team whom are aware of the implications of project management, construction management, engineering management and resource management during tendering till final completion of the project. This research aims to find out why reasons of principles of construction engineering and management are necessary for contracting firms and their managers. Principles of construction management help contracting organizations to accomplish and deliver projects without delay. This can be maintained by establishing guidelines’ details for updating the adopted system of construction management that they have through qualified and experienced project managers. The research focuses on benefits of other essential skills of projects planning, monitoring and control. Defining roles and responsibilities of contractor project managers during tendering and execution is a part of the investigated factors that will be analyzed. Other skills like optimizing and utilizing the obtainable project resources to deliver the project within time, cost and quality will be also investigated to find out how these factors are affecting the performance of contracting firms, projects managers and projects. The conclusion of the research will help senior management team and the contractors project managers about the benefits of implications and benefits construction management system and its effect upon the performance and knowledge of contract values that they have, and the optimal profit margin of the firm it.
Abstract: Meat Tenderness is one of the most important factors affecting consumers' assessment of meat quality. Variation in meat tenderness is genetically controlled and varies among breeds, and it is also influenced by environmental factors that can affect its creation during rigor mortis and postmortem. The final postmortem meat tenderization relies on the extent of proteolysis of myofibrillar proteins caused by the endogenous activity of the proteolytic calpain system. This calpain system includes different calcium-dependent cysteine proteases, and an inhibitor, calpastatin. It is widely accepted that in farm animals including chickens, the μ-calpain gene (CAPN1) is a physiological candidate gene for meat tenderness. This study aimed to identify the association of single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers in the CAPN1 gene with the tenderness of chicken breast meat from two Malaysian native and commercial broiler breed crosses. Ten, five months old native chickens and ten, 42 days commercial broilers were collected from the local market and breast muscles were removed two hours after slaughter, packed separately in plastic bags and kept at -20ºC for 24 h. The tenderness phenotype for all chickens’ breast meats was determined by Warner-Bratzler Shear Force (WBSF). Thawing and cooking losses were also measured in the same breast samples before using in WBSF determination. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was used to identify the previously reported C7198A and G9950A SNPs in the CAPN1 gene and assess their associations with meat tenderness in the two breeds. The broiler breast meat showed lower shear force values and lower thawing loss rates than the native chickens (p
Abstract: Since the beginning of distance education with the rapid evolution of technology, the social network plays a vital role in the educational process to enforce the interaction been the learners and teachers. There are many Web 2.0 technologies, services and tools designed for educational purposes. This research aims to investigate instructors’ acceptance towards web-based learning systems in higher educational institutes in Kingdom of Bahrain. Questionnaire is used to investigate the instructors’ usage of Web 2.0 and the factors affecting their acceptance. The results confirm that instructors had high accessibility to such technologies. However, patterns of use were complex. Whilst most expressed interest in using online technologies to support learning activities, learners seemed cautious about other values associated with web-based system, such as the shared construction of knowledge in a public format. The research concludes that there are main factors that affect instructors’ adoption which are security, performance expectation, perceived benefits, subjective norm, and perceived usefulness.
Abstract: Forecasting electricity load plays a crucial role regards
decision making and planning for economical purposes. Besides, in
the light of the recent privatization and deregulation of the power
industry, the forecasting of future electricity load turned out to be a
very challenging problem. Empirical data about electricity load
highlights a clear seasonal behavior (higher load during the winter
season), which is partly due to climatic effects. We also emphasize
the presence of load periodicity at a weekly basis (electricity load is
usually lower on weekends or holidays) and at daily basis (electricity
load is clearly influenced by the hour). Finally, a long-term trend may
depend on the general economic situation (for example, industrial
production affects electricity load). All these features must be
captured by the model.
The purpose of this paper is then to build an hourly electricity load
model. The deterministic component of the model requires non-linear
regression and Fourier series while we will investigate the stochastic
component through econometrical tools.
The calibration of the parameters’ model will be performed by
using data coming from the Italian market in a 6 year period (2007-
2012). Then, we will perform a Monte Carlo simulation in order to
compare the simulated data respect to the real data (both in-sample
and out-of-sample inspection). The reliability of the model will be
deduced thanks to standard tests which highlight a good fitting of the
simulated values.