A New Quantile Based Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting Model

Time series models have been used to make predictions of academic enrollments, weather, road accident, casualties and stock prices, etc. Based on the concepts of quartile regression models, we have developed a simple time variant quantile based fuzzy time series forecasting method. The proposed method bases the forecast using prediction of future trend of the data. In place of actual quantiles of the data at each point, we have converted the statistical concept into fuzzy concept by using fuzzy quantiles using fuzzy membership function ensemble. We have given a fuzzy metric to use the trend forecast and calculate the future value. The proposed model is applied for TAIFEX forecasting. It is shown that proposed method work best as compared to other models when compared with respect to model complexity and forecasting accuracy.

Comparison of Frequency Estimation Methods for Reflected Signals in Mobile Platforms

Precise frequency estimation methods for pulseshaped echoes are a prerequisite to determine the relative velocity between sensor and reflector. Signal frequencies are analysed using three different methods: Fourier Transform, Chirp ZTransform and the MUSIC algorithm. Simulations of echoes are performed varying both the noise level and the number of reflecting points. The superposition of echoes with a random initial phase is found to influence the precision of frequency estimation severely for FFT and MUSIC. The standard deviation of the frequency using FFT is larger than for MUSIC. However, MUSIC is more noise-sensitive. The distorting effect of superpositions is less pronounced in experimental data.

Design of Buffer Management for Industry to Avoid Sensor Data- Conflicts

To reduce accidents in the industry, WSNs(Wireless Sensor networks)- sensor data is used. WSNs- sensor data has the persistence and continuity. therefore, we design and exploit the buffer management system that has the persistence and continuity to avoid and delivery data conflicts. To develop modules, we use the multi buffers and design the buffer management modules that transfer sensor data through the context-aware methods.

Application of Pearson Parametric Distribution Model in Fatigue Life Reliability Evaluation

The aim of this paper is to introduce a parametric distribution model in fatigue life reliability analysis dealing with variation in material properties. Service loads in terms of responsetime history signal of Belgian pave were replicated on a multi-axial spindle coupled road simulator and stress-life method was used to estimate the fatigue life of automotive stub axle. A PSN curve was obtained by monotonic tension test and two-parameter Weibull distribution function was used to acquire the mean life of the component. A Pearson system was developed to evaluate the fatigue life reliability by considering stress range intercept and slope of the PSN curve as random variables. Considering normal distribution of fatigue strength, it is found that the fatigue life of the stub axle to have the highest reliability between 10000 – 15000 cycles. Taking into account the variation of material properties associated with the size effect, machining and manufacturing conditions, the method described in this study can be effectively applied in determination of probability of failure of mass-produced parts.

A Research of the Influence that MP3 Sound Gives EEG of the Person

Currently, many types of no-reversible compressed sound source, represented by MP3 (MPEG Audio Layer-3) are popular in the world and they are widely used to make the music file size smaller. The sound data created in this way has less information as compared to pre-compressed data. The objective of this study is by analyzing EEG to determine if people can recognize such difference as differences in sound. A measurement system that can measure and analyze EEG when a subject listens to music were experimentally developed. And ten subjects were studied with this system. In this experiment, a WAVE formatted music data and a MP3 compressed music data that is made from the WAVE formatted data were prepared. Each subject was made to hear these music sources at the same volume. From the results of this experiment, clear differences were confirmed between two wound sources.

A New Hybrid Model with Passive Congregation for Stock Market Indices Prediction

In this paper, we propose a new hybrid learning model for stock market indices prediction by adding a passive congregation term to the standard hybrid model comprising Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) with Genetic Algorithm (GA) operators in training Neural Networks (NN). This new passive congregation term is based on the cooperation between different particles in determining new positions rather than depending on the particles selfish thinking without considering other particles positions, thus it enables PSO to perform both the local and global search instead of only doing the local search. Experiment study carried out on the most famous European stock market indices in both long term and short term prediction shows significantly the influence of the passive congregation term in improving the prediction accuracy compared to standard hybrid model.

Exploring Performance-Based Music Attributes for Stylometric Analysis

Music Information Retrieval (MIR) and modern data mining techniques are applied to identify style markers in midi music for stylometric analysis and author attribution. Over 100 attributes are extracted from a library of 2830 songs then mined using supervised learning data mining techniques. Two attributes are identified that provide high informational gain. These attributes are then used as style markers to predict authorship. Using these style markers the authors are able to correctly distinguish songs written by the Beatles from those that were not with a precision and accuracy of over 98 per cent. The identification of these style markers as well as the architecture for this research provides a foundation for future research in musical stylometry.

A Genetic Algorithm with Priority Selection for the Traveling Salesman Problem

The conventional GA combined with a local search algorithm, such as the 2-OPT, forms a hybrid genetic algorithm(HGA) for the traveling salesman problem (TSP). However, the geometric properties which are problem specific knowledge can be used to improve the search process of the HGA. Some tour segments (edges) of TSPs are fine while some maybe too long to appear in a short tour. This knowledge could constrain GAs to work out with fine tour segments without considering long tour segments as often. Consequently, a new algorithm is proposed, called intelligent-OPT hybrid genetic algorithm (IOHGA), to improve the GA and the 2-OPT algorithm in order to reduce the search time for the optimal solution. Based on the geometric properties, all the tour segments are assigned 2-level priorities to distinguish between good and bad genes. A simulation study was conducted to evaluate the performance of the IOHGA. The experimental results indicate that in general the IOHGA could obtain near-optimal solutions with less time and better accuracy than the hybrid genetic algorithm with simulated annealing algorithm (HGA(SA)).

Text Mining Technique for Data Mining Application

Text Mining is around applying knowledge discovery techniques to unstructured text is termed knowledge discovery in text (KDT), or Text data mining or Text Mining. In decision tree approach is most useful in classification problem. With this technique, tree is constructed to model the classification process. There are two basic steps in the technique: building the tree and applying the tree to the database. This paper describes a proposed C5.0 classifier that performs rulesets, cross validation and boosting for original C5.0 in order to reduce the optimization of error ratio. The feasibility and the benefits of the proposed approach are demonstrated by means of medial data set like hypothyroid. It is shown that, the performance of a classifier on the training cases from which it was constructed gives a poor estimate by sampling or using a separate test file, either way, the classifier is evaluated on cases that were not used to build and evaluate the classifier are both are large. If the cases in hypothyroid.data and hypothyroid.test were to be shuffled and divided into a new 2772 case training set and a 1000 case test set, C5.0 might construct a different classifier with a lower or higher error rate on the test cases. An important feature of see5 is its ability to classifiers called rulesets. The ruleset has an error rate 0.5 % on the test cases. The standard errors of the means provide an estimate of the variability of results. One way to get a more reliable estimate of predictive is by f-fold –cross- validation. The error rate of a classifier produced from all the cases is estimated as the ratio of the total number of errors on the hold-out cases to the total number of cases. The Boost option with x trials instructs See5 to construct up to x classifiers in this manner. Trials over numerous datasets, large and small, show that on average 10-classifier boosting reduces the error rate for test cases by about 25%.

Electronic Voting System using Mobile Terminal

Electronic voting (E-voting) using an internet has been recently performed in some nations and regions. There is no spatial restriction which a voter directly has to visit the polling place, but an e-voting using an internet has to go together the computer in which the internet connection is possible. Also, this voting requires an access code for the e-voting through the beforehand report of a voter. To minimize these disadvantages, we propose a method in which a voter, who has the wireless certificate issued in advance, uses its own cellular phone for an e-voting without the special registration for a vote. Our proposal allows a voter to cast his vote in a simple and convenient way without the limit of time and location, thereby increasing the voting rate, and also ensuring confidentiality and anonymity.

Design of Moving Sliding Surfaces in A Variable Structure Plant and Chattering Phenomena

This paper deals with the design of a moving sliding surface in a variable structure plant for a second order system. The chattering phenomena is also dealt with during the switching process for an unstable sliding surface condition. The simulation examples considered in this paper shows the effectiveness of the sliding mode control method used for the design of the moving sliding surfaces. A simulink model of the continuous system was also developed in MATLAB-SIMULINK for the design and hence demonstrated. The phase portraits and the state plots shows the demonstration of the powerful control technique which can be applied for second order systems.

Nonlinear Effects in Bubbly Liquid with Shock Waves

The paper presents the results of theoretical and numerical modeling of propagation of shock waves in bubbly liquids related to nonlinear effects (realistic equation of state, chemical reactions, two-dimensional effects). On the basis on the Rankine- Hugoniot equations the problem of determination of parameters of passing and reflected shock waves in gas-liquid medium for isothermal, adiabatic and shock compression of the gas component is solved by using the wide-range equation of state of water in the analitic form. The phenomenon of shock wave intensification is investigated in the channel of variable cross section for the propagation of a shock wave in the liquid filled with bubbles containing chemically active gases. The results of modeling of the wave impulse impact on the solid wall covered with bubble layer are presented.

Study Interaction between Tin Dioxide Nanowhiskers and Ethanol Molecules in Gas Phase: Monte Carlo(MC) and Langevin Dynamics (LD) Simulation

Three dimensional nanostructure materials have attracted the attention of many researches because the possibility to apply them for near future devices in sensors, catalysis and energy related. Tin dioxide is the most used material for gas sensing because its three-dimensional nanostructures and properties are related to the large surface exposed to gas adsorption. We propose the use of branch SnO2 nanowhiskers in interaction with ethanol. All Sn atoms are symmetric. The total energy, potential energy and Kinetic energy calculated for interaction between SnO2 and ethanol in different distances and temperatures. The calculations achieved by methods of Langevin Dynamic and Mont Carlo simulation. The total energy increased with addition ethanol molecules and temperature so interactions between them are endothermic.

A Modularized Design for Multi-Drivers Off-Road Vehicle Driving-Line and its Performance Assessment

Modularized design approach can facilitate the modeling of complex systems and support behavior analysis and simulation in an iterative and thus complex engineering process, by using encapsulated submodels of components and of their interfaces. Therefore it can improve the design efficiency and simplify the solving complicated problem. Multi-drivers off-road vehicle is comparatively complicated. Driving-line is an important core part to a vehicle; it has a significant contribution to the performance of a vehicle. Multi-driver off-road vehicles have complex driving-line, so its performance is heavily dependent on the driving-line. A typical off-road vehicle-s driving-line system consists of torque converter, transmission, transfer case and driving-axles, which transfer the power, generated by the engine and distribute it effectively to the driving wheels according to the road condition. According to its main function, this paper puts forward a modularized approach for designing and evaluation of vehicle-s driving-line. It can be used to effectively estimate the performance of driving-line during concept design stage. Through appropriate analysis and assessment method, an optimal design can be reached. This method has been applied to the practical vehicle design, it can improve the design efficiency and is convenient to assess and validate the performance of a vehicle, especially of multi-drivers off-road vehicle.

Probabilistic Modelling of Marine Bridge Deterioration

Chloride induced corrosion of steel reinforcement is the main cause of deterioration of reinforced concrete marine structures. This paper investigates the relative performance of alternative repair options with respect to the deterioration of reinforced concrete bridge elements in marine environments. Focus is placed on the initiation phase of reinforcement corrosion. A laboratory study is described which involved exposing concrete samples to accelerated chloride-ion ingress. The study examined the relative efficiencies of two repair methods, namely Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC) concrete and a concrete which utilised Ground Granulated Blastfurnace Cement (GGBS) as a partial cement replacement. The mix designs and materials utilised were identical to those implemented in the repair of a marine bridge on the South East coast of Ireland in 2007. The results of this testing regime serve to inform input variables employed in probabilistic modelling of deterioration for subsequent reliability based analysis to compare the relative performance of the studied repair options.

Recursive Similarity Hashing of Fractal Geometry

A new technique of topological multi-scale analysis is introduced. By performing a clustering recursively to build a hierarchy, and analyzing the co-scale and intra-scale similarities, an Iterated Function System can be extracted from any data set. The study of fractals shows that this method is efficient to extract self-similarities, and can find elegant solutions the inverse problem of building fractals. The theoretical aspects and practical implementations are discussed, together with examples of analyses of simple fractals.

The Therapist's Self Disclosure in Cross- Cultural Treatment

The argument that self-disclosure will change the psychoanalytic process into a socio-cultural niche distorting the therapeutic alliance and compromise therapeutic effectiveness is still the widely held belief amongst many psychotherapists. This paper considers the issues surrounding culture, disclosure and concealment since they remain largely untheorized and clinically problematic. The first part of the paper will critically examine the theory and practice of psychoanalysis across cultures, and explore the reasons for culturally diverse patients to conceal rather than disclose their feelings and thoughts in the transference. This is followed by a discussion on how immigrant analysts- anonymity is difficult to maintain since diverse nationalities, language and accents provide clues to the therapist-s and patient-s origins. Through personal clinical examples of one the author-s (who is an immigrant) the paper analyses the transference-countertransference paradigm and how it reflects in the analyst-s self-revelation.

An Investigation of the Cu-Ni Compound Cathode Materials Affecting on Transient Recovery Voltage

The purpose of this research was to analyze and compare the instability of a contact surface between Copper and Nickel an alloy cathode in vacuum, the different ratio of Copper and Copper were conducted at 1%, 2% and 4% by using the cathode spot model. The transient recovery voltage is predicted. The cathode spot region is recognized as the collisionless space charge sheath connected with singly ionized collisional plasma. It was found that the transient voltage is decreased with increasing the percentage of an amount of Nickel in cathode materials.

Application of Nano Cutting Fluid under Minimum Quantity Lubrication (MQL) Technique to Improve Grinding of Ti – 6Al – 4V Alloy

Minimum Quantity Lubrication (MQL) technique obtained a significant attention in machining processes to reduce environmental loads caused by usage of conventional cutting fluids. Recently nanofluids are finding an extensive application in the field of mechanical engineering because of their superior lubrication and heat dissipation characteristics. This paper investigates the use of a nanofluid under MQL mode to improve grinding characteristics of Ti-6Al-4V alloy. Taguchi-s experimental design technique has been used in the present investigation and a second order model has been established to predict grinding forces and surface roughness. Different concentrations of water based Al2O3 nanofluids were applied in the grinding operation through MQL setup developed in house and the results have been compared with those of conventional coolant and pure water. Experimental results showed that grinding forces reduced significantly when nano cutting fluid was used even at low concentration of the nano particles and surface finish has been found to improve with higher concentration of the nano particles.

Mathematical Modeling of Non-Isothermal Multi-Component Fluid Flow in Pipes Applying to Rapid Gas Decompression in Rich and Base Gases

The paper presents a one-dimensional transient mathematical model of compressible non-isothermal multicomponent fluid mixture flow in a pipe. The set of the mass, momentum and enthalpy conservation equations for gas phase is solved in the model. Thermo-physical properties of multi-component gas mixture are calculated by solving the Equation of State (EOS) model. The Soave-Redlich-Kwong (SRK-EOS) model is chosen. Gas mixture viscosity is calculated on the basis of the Lee-Gonzales- Eakin (LGE) correlation. Numerical analysis of rapid gas decompression process in rich and base natural gases is made on the basis of the proposed mathematical model. The model is successfully validated on the experimental data [1]. The proposed mathematical model shows a very good agreement with the experimental data [1] in a wide range of pressure values and predicts the decompression in rich and base gas mixtures much better than analytical and mathematical models, which are available from the open source literature.