Abstract: One of the most significant threats to the economy of a nation is the bankruptcy of its banks. This study evaluates the susceptibility of Nigerian banks to failure with a view to identifying ratios and financial data that are sensitive to solvency of the bank. Further, a predictive model is generated to guide all stakeholders in the industry. Thirty quoted banks that had published Annual Reports for the year preceding the consolidation i.e. year 2004 were selected. They were examined for distress using the Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network Analysis. The model was used to analyze further reforms by the Central Bank of Nigeria using published Annual Reports of twenty quoted banks for the year 2008 and 2011. The model can thus be used for future prediction of failure in the Nigerian banking system.
Abstract: In this paper, 3D image based composite unit cell is constructed from high resolution tomographic images. Through-thickness thermal diffusivity and in-plane Young’s modulus are predicted for the composite unit cell. The accuracy of the image based composite unit cell is tested by comparing its results with the experimental results obtained from laser flash and tensile test. The FE predictions are in close agreement with experimental results. Through-thickness thermal diffusivity and in-plane Young’s modulus of a virgin C/C composite are predicted by replacing the properties of air (porosity) with the properties of carbon matrix. The effect of porosity was found to be more profound on thermal diffusivity than young’s modulus.
Abstract: In this article, a new inexact alternating direction method(ADM) is proposed for solving a class of variational inequality problems. At each iteration, the new method firstly solves the resulting subproblems of ADM approximately to generate an temporal point ˜xk, and then the multiplier yk is updated to get the new iterate yk+1. In order to get xk+1, we adopt a new descent direction which is simple compared with the existing prediction-correction type ADMs. For the inexact ADM, the resulting proximal subproblem has closedform solution when the proximal parameter and inexact term are chosen appropriately. We show the efficiency of the inexact ADM numerically by some preliminary numerical experiments.
Abstract: The numerical simulation of fully developed gas–solid flow in a horizontal pipe is done using the eulerian-eulerian approach, also known as two fluids modeling as both phases are treated as continuum and inter-penetrating continua. The solid phase stresses are modeled using kinetic theory of granular flow (KTGF). The computed results for velocity profiles and pressure drop are compared with the experimental data. We observe that the convection and diffusion terms in the granular temperature cannot be neglected in gas solid flow simulation along a horizontal pipe. The particle-wall collision and lift also play important role in eulerian modeling. We also investigated the effect of flow parameters like gas velocity, particle properties and particle loading on pressure drop prediction in different pipe diameters. Pressure drop increases with gas velocity and particle loading. The gas velocity has the same effect ((proportional toU2 ) as single phase flow on pressure drop prediction. With respect to particle diameter, pressure drop first increases, reaches a peak and then decreases. The peak is a strong function of pipe bore.
Abstract: In the present study, two distinctly different approaches are followed for modeling of reactive distillation column, the equilibrium stage model and the nonequilibrium stage model. These models are simulated with a computer code developed in the present
study using MATLAB programming. In the equilibrium stage models, the vapor and liquid phases are assumed to be in equilibrium and allowance is made for finite reaction rates, where as in the nonequilibrium stage models simultaneous mass transfer and reaction rates are considered. These simulated model results are validated from the experimental data reported in the literature. The simulated results of equilibrium and nonequilibrium models are compared for concentration, temperature and reaction rate profiles in a reactive distillation column for Methyl Tert Butyle Ether (MTBE) production. Both the models show similar trend for the concentration, temperature and reaction rate profiles but the nonequilibrium model predictions are higher and closer to the experimental values reported in the literature.
Abstract: Sandwich plates are finding an increasing range of application in the aircraft industry. The inspection of honeycomb composite structure by conventional ultrasonic technique is complex and very time consuming. The present study demonstrates a technique using guided Lamb waves at low frequencies to predict de-bond defects in aluminum skin-honeycomb core sandwich structure used in aeronautics. The numerical method was investigated for drawing the dispersion and displacement curves of ultrasonic Lamb wave propagated in Aluminum plate. An experimental study was carried out to check the theoretical prediction. The detection of unsticking between the skin and the core was tested by the two first modes for a low frequency. It was found that A0 mode is more sensitive to delamination defect compared to S0 mode.
Abstract: Human society, there are many uncertainties, such as economic growth rate forecast of the financial crisis, many scholars have, since the the Song Chissom two scholars in 1993 the concept of the so-called fuzzy time series (Fuzzy Time Series)different mode to deal with these problems, a previous study, however, usually does not consider the relevant variables selected and fuzzy process based solely on subjective opinions the fuzzy semantic discrete, so can not objectively reflect the characteristics of the data set, in addition to carrying outforecasts are often fuzzy rules as equally important, failed to consider the importance of each fuzzy rule. For these reasons, the variable selection (Factor Selection) through self-organizing map (Self-Organizing Map, SOM) and proposed high-end weighted multivariate fuzzy time series model based on fuzzy neural network (Fuzzy-BPN), and using the the sequential weighted average operator (Ordered Weighted Averaging operator, OWA) weighted prediction. Therefore, in order to verify the proposed method, the Taiwan stock exchange (Taiwan Stock Exchange Corporation) Taiwan Weighted Stock Index (Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index, TAIEX) as experimental forecast target, in order to filter the appropriate variables in the experiment Finally, included in other studies in recent years mode in conjunction with this study, the results showed that the predictive ability of this study further improve.
Abstract: Hydrogen diffusion is the main problem for corrosion fatigue in corrosive environment. In order to analyze the phenomenon, it is needed to understand their behaviors specially the hydrogen behavior during the diffusion. So, Hydrogen embrittlement and prediction its behavior as a main corrosive part of the fractions, needed to solve combinations of different equations mathematically. The main point to obtain the equation, having knowledge about the source of causing diffusion and running the atoms into materials, called driving force. This is produced by either gradient of electrical or chemical potential. In this work, we consider the gradient of chemical potential to obtain the property equation. In diffusion of atoms, some of them may be trapped but, it could be ignorable in some conditions. According to the phenomenon of hydrogen embrittlement, the thermodynamic and chemical properties of hydrogen are considered to justify and relate them to fracture mechanics. It is very important to get a stress intensity factor by using fugacity as a property of hydrogen or other gases. Although, the diffusive behavior and embrittlement event are common and the same for other gases but, for making it more clear, we describe it for hydrogen. This considering on the definite gas and describing it helps us to understand better the importance of this relation.
Abstract: This paper presents a predictive model of sensor readings for mobile robot. The model predicts sensor readings for given time horizon based on current sensor readings and velocities of wheels assumed for this horizon. Similar models for such anticipation have been proposed in the literature. The novelty of the model presented in the paper comes from the fact that its structure takes into account physical phenomena and is not just a black box, for example a neural network. From this point of view it may be regarded as a semi-phenomenological model. The model is developed for the Khepera robot, but after certain modifications, it may be applied for any robot with distance sensors such as infrared or ultrasonic sensors.
Abstract: An accurate prediction of the minimum fluidization
velocity is a crucial hydrodynamic aspect of the design of fluidized
bed reactors. Common approaches for the prediction of the minimum
fluidization velocities of binary-solid fluidized beds are first
discussed here. The data of our own careful experimental
investigation involving a binary-solid pair fluidized with water is
presented. The effect of the relative composition of the two solid
species comprising the fluidized bed on the bed void fraction at the
incipient fluidization condition is reported and its influence on the
minimum fluidization velocity is discussed. In this connection, the
capability of packing models to predict the bed void fraction is also
examined.
Abstract: According to the increasing utilization in power system, the transmission lines and power plants often operate in stability boundary and system probably lose its stable condition by over loading or occurring disturbance. According to the reasons that are mentioned, the prediction and recognition of voltage instability in power system has particular importance and it makes the network security stronger.This paper, by considering of power system contingencies based on the effects of them on Mega Watt Margin (MWM) and maximum loading point is focused in order to analyse the static voltage stability using continuation power flow method. The study has been carried out on IEEE 14-Bus Test System using Matlab and Psat softwares and results are presented.
Abstract: Microscopic emission and fuel consumption models
have been widely recognized as an effective method to quantify real
traffic emission and energy consumption when they are applied with
microscopic traffic simulation models. This paper presents a
framework for developing the Microscopic Emission (HC, CO, NOx,
and CO2) and Fuel consumption (MEF) models for light-duty
vehicles. The variable of composite acceleration is introduced into
the MEF model with the purpose of capturing the effects of historical
accelerations interacting with current speed on emission and fuel
consumption. The MEF model is calibrated by multivariate
least-squares method for two types of light-duty vehicle using
on-board data collected in Beijing, China by a Portable Emission
Measurement System (PEMS). The instantaneous validation results
shows the MEF model performs better with lower Mean Absolute
Percentage Error (MAPE) compared to other two models. Moreover,
the aggregate validation results tells the MEF model produces
reasonable estimations compared to actual measurements with
prediction errors within 12%, 10%, 19%, and 9% for HC, CO, NOx
emissions and fuel consumption, respectively.
Abstract: In this paper, we investigated the characteristic of a
clinical dataseton the feature selection and classification
measurements which deal with missing values problem.And also
posed the appropriated techniques to achieve the aim of the activity;
in this research aims to find features that have high effect to mortality
and mortality time frame. We quantify the complexity of a clinical
dataset. According to the complexity of the dataset, we proposed the
data mining processto cope their complexity; missing values, high
dimensionality, and the prediction problem by using the methods of
missing value replacement, feature selection, and classification.The
experimental results will extend to develop the prediction model for
cardiology.
Abstract: Superelastic Shape Memory Alloy (SMA) is accepted
when it used as connection in steel structures. The seismic behaviour
of steel frames with SMA is being assessed in this study. Three eightstorey
steel frames with different SMA systems are suggested, the
first one of which is braced with diagonal bracing system, the second
one is braced with nee bracing system while the last one is which the
SMA is used as connection at the plastic hinge regions of beams.
Nonlinear time history analyses of steel frames with SMA subjected
to two different ground motion records have been performed using
Seismostruct software. To evaluate the efficiency of suggested
systems, the dynamic responses of the frames were compared. From
the comparison results, it can be concluded that using SMA element
is an effective way to improve the dynamic response of structures
subjected to earthquake excitations. Implementing the SMA braces
can lead to a reduction in residual roof displacement. The shape
memory alloy is effective in reducing the maximum displacement at
the frame top and it provides a large elastic deformation range. SMA
connections are very effective in dissipating energy and reducing the
total input energy of the whole frame under severe seismic ground
motion. Using of the SMA connection system is more effective in
controlling the reaction forces at the base frame than other bracing
systems. Using SMA as bracing is more effective in reducing the
displacements. The efficiency of SMA is dependant on the input
wave motions and the construction system as well.
Abstract: An adaptive dynamic cerebellar model articulation
controller (DCMAC) neural network used for solving the prediction
and identification problem is proposed in this paper. The proposed
DCMAC has superior capability to the conventional cerebellar model
articulation controller (CMAC) neural network in efficient learning
mechanism, guaranteed system stability and dynamic response. The
recurrent network is embedded in the DCMAC by adding feedback
connections in the association memory space so that the DCMAC
captures the dynamic response, where the feedback units act as
memory elements. The dynamic gradient descent method is adopted to
adjust DCMAC parameters on-line. Moreover, the analytical method
based on a Lyapunov function is proposed to determine the
learning-rates of DCMAC so that the variable optimal learning-rates
are derived to achieve most rapid convergence of identifying error.
Finally, the adaptive DCMAC is applied in two computer simulations.
Simulation results show that accurate identifying response and
superior dynamic performance can be obtained because of the
powerful on-line learning capability of the proposed DCMAC.
Abstract: Reliable water level forecasts are particularly
important for warning against dangerous flood and inundation. The
current study aims at investigating the suitability of the adaptive
network based fuzzy inference system for continuous water level
modeling. A hybrid learning algorithm, which combines the least
square method and the back propagation algorithm, is used to
identify the parameters of the network. For this study, water levels
data are available for a hydrological year of 2002 with a sampling
interval of 1-hour. The number of antecedent water level that should
be included in the input variables is determined by two statistical
methods, i.e. autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation
function between the variables. Forecasting was done for 1-hour until
12-hour ahead in order to compare the models generalization at
higher horizons. The results demonstrate that the adaptive networkbased
fuzzy inference system model can be applied successfully and
provide high accuracy and reliability for river water level estimation.
In general, the adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system
provides accurate and reliable water level prediction for 1-hour ahead
where the MAPE=1.15% and correlation=0.98 was achieved. Up to
12-hour ahead prediction, the model still shows relatively good
performance where the error of prediction resulted was less than
9.65%. The information gathered from the preliminary results
provide a useful guidance or reference for flood early warning
system design in which the magnitude and the timing of a potential
extreme flood are indicated.
Abstract: Vortices can develop in intakes of turbojet and turbo
fan aero engines during high power operation in the vicinity of solid
surfaces. These vortices can cause catastrophic damage to the engine.
The factors determining the formation of the vortex include both
geometric dimensions as well as flow parameters. It was shown that
the threshold at which the vortex forms or disappears is also
dependent on the initial flow condition (i.e. whether a vortex forms
after stabilised non vortex flow or vice-versa). A computational fluid
dynamics study was conducted to determine the difference in
thresholds between the two conditions. This is the first reported
numerical investigation of the “memory effect". The numerical
results reproduce the phenomenon reported in previous experimental
studies and additional factors, which had not been previously studied,
were investigated. They are the rate at which ambient velocity
changes and the initial value of ambient velocity. The former was
found to cause a shift in the threshold but not the later. It was also
found that the varying condition thresholds are not symmetrical about
the neutral threshold. The vortex to no vortex threshold lie slightly
further away from the neutral threshold compared to the no vortex to
vortex threshold. The results suggests that experimental investigation
of vortex formation threshold performed either in vortex to no vortex
conditions, or vice versa, solely may introduce mis-predictions
greater than 10%.
Abstract: The goal of a network-based intrusion detection
system is to classify activities of network traffics into two major
categories: normal and attack (intrusive) activities. Nowadays, data
mining and machine learning plays an important role in many
sciences; including intrusion detection system (IDS) using both
supervised and unsupervised techniques. However, one of the
essential steps of data mining is feature selection that helps in
improving the efficiency, performance and prediction rate of
proposed approach. This paper applies unsupervised K-means
clustering algorithm with information gain (IG) for feature selection
and reduction to build a network intrusion detection system. For our
experimental analysis, we have used the new NSL-KDD dataset,
which is a modified dataset for KDDCup 1999 intrusion detection
benchmark dataset. With a split of 60.0% for the training set and the
remainder for the testing set, a 2 class classifications have been
implemented (Normal, Attack). Weka framework which is a java
based open source software consists of a collection of machine
learning algorithms for data mining tasks has been used in the testing
process. The experimental results show that the proposed approach is
very accurate with low false positive rate and high true positive rate
and it takes less learning time in comparison with using the full
features of the dataset with the same algorithm.
Abstract: Non-premixed turbulent combustion Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) has been carried out in a simplified methanefuelled coaxial jet combustor employing Large Eddy Simulation (LES). The objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of LES in modelling non-premixed combustion using a commercial software, FLUENT, and investigate the effects of the grid density and chemistry models employed on the accuracy of the simulation results. A comparison has also been made between LES and Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) predictions. For LES grid sensitivity test, 2.3 and 6.2 million cell grids are employed with the equilibrium model. The chemistry model sensitivity analysis is achieved by comparing the simulation results from the equilibrium chemistry and steady flamelet models. The predictions of the mixture fraction, axial velocity, species mass fraction and temperature by LES are in good agreement with the experimental data. The LES results are similar for the two chemistry models but influenced considerably by the grid resolution in the inner flame and near-wall regions.
Abstract: Identification of cancer genes that might anticipate
the clinical behaviors from different types of cancer disease is
challenging due to the huge number of genes and small number of
patients samples. The new method is being proposed based on
supervised learning of classification like support vector machines
(SVMs).A new solution is described by the introduction of the
Maximized Margin (MM) in the subset criterion, which permits to
get near the least generalization error rate. In class prediction
problem, gene selection is essential to improve the accuracy and to
identify genes for cancer disease. The performance of the new
method was evaluated with real-world data experiment. It can give
the better accuracy for classification.