Volatility Model with Markov Regime Switching to Forecast Baht/USD

 In this paper, we forecast the volatility of Baht/USDs using Markov Regime Switching GARCH (MRS-GARCH) models. These models allow volatility to have different dynamics according to unobserved regime variables. The main purpose of this paper is to find out whether MRS-GARCH models are an improvement on the GARCH type models in terms of modeling and forecasting Baht/USD volatility. The MRS-GARCH is the best performance model for Baht/USD volatility in short term but the GARCH model is best perform for long term.

Thermal Performance and Environmental Assessment of Evaporative Cooling Systems: Case of Mina Valley, Saudi Arabia

This paper presents a detailed description of evaporative cooling systems used for space cooling in Mina Valley, Saudi Arabia. The thermal performance and environmental impact of the evaporative coolers were evaluated. It was found that the evaporative cooling systems used for space cooling in pilgrims’ accommodations and in the train stations could reduce energy consumption by as much as 75% and cut carbon dioxide emission by 78% compared to traditional vapour compression systems.

Analysis of the Theoretical Values of Several Characteristic Parameters of Surface Topography in Rotational Turning

In addition to the increase of the material removal rate or surface rate, or the improvement of the surface quality, which are the main aims of the development of manufacturing technology, a growing number of other manufacturing requirements have appeared in the machining of workpiece surfaces. Among these it is becoming increasingly dominant to generate a surface topography in finishing operations which meets more closely the needs of operational requirements. These include the examination of the surface periodicity and/or ensuring that the twist-structure values are within the limits (or even preventing its occurrence) in specified cases such as on the sealing surfaces of rotating shafts or on the inside working surfaces of needle roller bearings. In the view of the measurement the twist has different parameters from surface roughness, which must be determined for the machining procedures. Therefore in this paper the alteration of the theoretical values of the parameters determining twist structure are studied as a function of the kinematic properties.

Thermal Performance of Hybrid PVT Collector with Natural Circulation

Hybrid photovoltaic thermal (PVT) collectors allow simultaneous production of electrical energy thus heat energy. There are several configurations of hybrid collectors (to produce water or air). For hybrids water collectors, there are several configurations that differ by the nature of the absorber (serpentine, tubes...). In this paper, an absorber tank is studied. The circulation of the coolant is natural (we do not use the pump). We present the obtained results in our experimental study and we analyzed the data, and then we compare the results with the theory practices. The electrical performances of the hybrid collector are compared with those of conventional photovoltaic module mounted on the same structure and measured under the same conditions. We conducted experiments with natural circulation of the coolant (Thermosyphon), for a flow rate of 0.025kg/m².

Phenotypical and Genotypical Assessment Techniques for Identification of Some Contagious Mastitis Pathogens

Mastitis is one of the most economic disease affecting dairy cows worldwide. Its classic diagnosis using bacterial culture and biochemical findings is a difficult and prolonged method. In this research, using of matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS) permitted identification of different microorganisms with high accuracy and rapidity (only 24 hours for microbial growth and analysis). During the application of MALDI-TOF MS, one hundred twenty strains of Staphylococcus and Streptococcus species isolated from milk of cows affected by clinical and subclinical mastitis were identified, and the results were compared with those obtained by traditional methods as API and VITEK 2 Systems. 37 of totality 39 strains (~95%) of Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus) were exactly detected by MALDI TOF MS and then confirmed by a nuc-based PCR technique, whereas accurate identification was observed in 100% (50 isolates) of the coagulase negative staphylococci (CNS) and Streptococcus agalactiae (31 isolates). In brief, our results demonstrated that MALDI-TOF MS is a fast and truthful technique which has the capability to replace conventional identification of several bacterial strains usually isolated in clinical laboratories of microbiology.

Flow and Heat Transfer over a Shrinking Sheet: A Stability Analysis

The characteristics of fluid flow and heat transfer over a permeable shrinking sheet is studied. The governing partial differential equations are transformed into a set of ordinary differential equations, which are then solved numerically using MATLAB routine boundary value problem solver bvp4c. Numerical results show that dual solutions are possible for a certain range of the suction parameter. A stability analysis is performed to determine which solution is linearly stable and physically realizable.

Solving Stochastic Eigenvalue Problem of Wick Type

In this paper we study mathematically the eigenvalue problem for stochastic elliptic partial differential equation of Wick type. Using the Wick-product and the Wiener-Itô chaos expansion, the stochastic eigenvalue problem is reformulated as a system of an eigenvalue problem for a deterministic partial differential equation and elliptic partial differential equations by using the Fredholm alternative. To reduce the computational complexity of this system, we shall use a decomposition method using the Wiener-Itô chaos expansion. Once the approximation of the solution is performed using the finite element method for example, the statistics of the numerical solution can be easily evaluated.

International Tourists’ Travel Motivation by Push-Pull Factors and the Decision Making for Selecting Thailand as Destination Choice

This research paper aims to identify travel motivation by push and pull factors that affected decision making of international tourists in selecting Thailand as their destination choice. A total of 200 international tourists who traveled to Thailand during January and February, 2014 were used as the sample in this study. A questionnaire was employed as a tool in collecting the data, conducted in Bangkok. The list consisted of 30 attributes representing both psychological factors as “push- based factors” and destination factors as “pull-based factors”. Mean and standard deviation were used in order to find the top ten travel motives that were important determinants in the respondents’ decision making process to select Thailand as their destination choice. The finding revealed the top ten travel motivations influencing international tourists to select Thailand as their destination choice included [i] getting experience in foreign land; [ii] Thai food; [iii] learning new culture; [iv] relaxing in foreign land; [v] wanting to learn new things; [vi] being interested in Thai culture, and traditional markets; [vii] escaping from same daily life; [viii] enjoying activities; [ix] adventure; and [x] good weather. Classification of push- based and pull- based motives suggested that getting experience in foreign land was the most important push motive for international tourists to travel, while Thai food portrayed its highest significance as pull motive. Discussion and suggestions were also made for tourism industry of Thailand.

Influence of Deficient Materials on the Reliability of Reinforced Concrete Members

The strength of reinforced concrete depends on the member dimensions and material properties. The properties of concrete and steel materials are not constant but random variables. The variability of concrete strength is due to batching errors, variations in mixing, cement quality uncertainties, differences in the degree of compaction and disparity in curing. Similarly, the variability of steel strength is attributed to the manufacturing process, rolling conditions, characteristics of base material, uncertainties in chemical composition, and the microstructure-property relationships. To account for such uncertainties, codes of practice for reinforced concrete design impose resistance factors to ensure structural reliability over the useful life of the structure. In this investigation, the effects of reductions in concrete and reinforcing steel strengths from the nominal values, beyond those accounted for in the structural design codes, on the structural reliability are assessed. The considered limit states are flexure, shear and axial compression based on the ACI 318-11 structural concrete building code. Structural safety is measured in terms of a reliability index. Probabilistic resistance and load models are compiled from the available literature. The study showed that there is a wide variation in the reliability index for reinforced concrete members designed for flexure, shear or axial compression, especially when the live-to-dead load ratio is low. Furthermore, variations in concrete strength have minor effect on the reliability of beams in flexure, moderate effect on the reliability of beams in shear, and sever effect on the reliability of columns in axial compression. On the other hand, changes in steel yield strength have great effect on the reliability of beams in flexure, moderate effect on the reliability of beams in shear, and mild effect on the reliability of columns in axial compression. Based on the outcome, it can be concluded that the reliability of beams is sensitive to changes in the yield strength of the steel reinforcement, whereas the reliability of columns is sensitive to variations in the concrete strength. Since the embedded target reliability in structural design codes results in lower structural safety in beams than in columns, large reductions in material strengths compromise the structural safety of beams much more than they affect columns.

Money Laundering and Financing of Terrorism

Economic development and globalization of international markets have created a favourable atmosphere for the emergence of new forms of crime such as money laundering or financing of terrorism, which may contribute to destabilized and damage economic systems. In particular, money laundering have acquired great importance since the 11S attacks, what has caused on the one hand, the establishment and development of preventive measures and, on the other hand, a progressive hardening of penal measures. Since then, the regulations imposed to fight against money laundering have been viewed as key components also in the fight against terrorist financing. Terrorism, at the beginning, was a “national” crime connected with internal problems of the State (for instance the RAF in Germany or ETA in Spain) but in the last 20 years has started to be an international problem that is connected with the defence and security of the States. Therefore, the new strategic concept for the defense and security of NATO has a comprehensive list of security threats to the Alliance, such as terrorism, international instability, money laundering or attacks on cyberspace, among others. With this new concept, money laundering and terrorism has become a priority in the national defense. In this work we will analyze the methods to combat these new threats to the national security. We will study the preventive legislations to combat money laundering and financing of terrorism, the UIF that exchange information between States, and the hawala-Banking.

Long-Term Structural Behavior of Resilient Materials for Reduction of Floor Impact Sound

People’s tendency towards living in apartment houses is increasing in a densely populated country. However, some residents living in apartment houses are bothered by noise coming from the houses above. In order to reduce noise pollution, the communities are increasingly imposing a bylaw, including the limitation of floor impact sound, minimum thickness of floors, and floor soundproofing solutions. This research effort focused on the specific long-time deflection of resilient materials in the floor sound insulation systems of apartment houses. The experimental program consisted of testing nine floor sound insulation specimens subjected to sustained load for 45 days. Two main parameters were considered in the experimental investigation: three types of resilient materials and magnitudes of loads. The test results indicated that the structural behavior of the floor sound insulation systems under long-time load was quite different from that the systems under short-time load. The loading period increased the deflection of floor sound insulation systems and the increasing rate of the long-time deflection of the systems with ethylene vinyl acetate was smaller than that of the systems with low density ethylene polystyrene.

Use of Green Coconut Pulp as Cream, Milk, Stabilizer and Emulsifier Replacer in Germinated Brown Rice Ice Cream

The aim of this study was to determine physicochemical and sensory properties of germinated brown rice ice cream as affected by replacement of cream, milk, stabilizer, and emulsifier with green coconut pulp. Five different formulations of ice cream were performed. Regular formulation of ice cream consisted of GBR juice, milk cream, milk powder, stabilizer, emulsifier, sucrose and salt. Replacing of cream, milk, stabilizer, and emulsifier with coconut pulp resulted in an increase in viscosity and overrun, but a decrease in hardness, melting rate, lightness (l*) and redness (a*). However, there was no significant difference among all formulations on any sensory attributes. The results also showed that the ice cream with replacement of coconut pulp contained less fat and protein than those of the regular ice cream. The findings suggested that green coconut pulp can be used as alternative ingredient to replace fat, milk stabilizer and emulsifier even in a high carbohydrate ice cream formulation.

The Dynamics of Microorganisms in Dried Yogurt Storages at Different Temperatures

Yoghurt is a fermented milk product. The process of making yogurt involves fermenting milk with live and active bacterial cultures by adding bacteria directly to the dairy product. It is usually made with a culture of Lactobacillus sp. (L. acidophilus or L. bulgaricus) and Streptococcus thermophilus. Many people like to eat it plain or flavored and it's also use as ingredient in many dishes. Yogurt is rich in nutrients including the microorganism which have important role in balancing the digestion and absorption of the boy.Consumers will benefit from lactic acid bacteria more or less depending on the amount of bacteria that lives in yogurt while eating. When purchasing yogurt, consumers should always check the label for live cultures. Yoghurt must keep in refrigerator at 4°C for up to ten days. After this amount of time, the cultures often become weak. This research studied freezing dry yogurt storage by monitoring on the survival of microorganisms when stored at different temperatures. At 300C, representative room temperature of country in equator zone, number of lactic acid bacteria reduced 4 log cycles in 10 week. At 400C, representative temperature in summer of country in equator zone, number of lactic acid bacteria also dropped 4 log cycle in 10 week, similar as storage at 300C. But drying yogurt storage at 400C couldn’t reformed to be good character yogurt as good as storage at 400C only 4 week storage too. After 1 month, it couldn’t bring back the yogurt form. So if it is inevitable to keep yogurt powder at a temperature of 40°C, yoghurt is maintained only up to 4 weeks.

The Effects of Seasonal Variation on the Microbial-N Flow to the Small Intestine and Prediction of Feed Intake in Grazing Karayaka Sheep

The objectives of the present study were to estimate the microbial-N flow to the small intestine and to predict the digestible organic matter intake (DOMI) in grazing Karayaka sheep based on urinary excretion of purine derivatives (xanthine, hypoxanthine, uric acid, and allantoin) by the use of spot urine sampling under field conditions. In the trial, 10 Karayaka sheep from 2 to 3 years of age were used. The animals were grazed in a pasture for ten months and fed with concentrate and vetch plus oat hay for the other two months (January and February) indoors. Highly significant linear and cubic relationships (P

Diagnosis of the Heart Rhythm Disorders by Using Hybrid Classifiers

In this study, it was tried to identify some heart rhythm disorders by electrocardiography (ECG) data that is taken from MIT-BIH arrhythmia database by subtracting the required features, presenting to artificial neural networks (ANN), artificial immune systems (AIS), artificial neural network based on artificial immune system (AIS-ANN) and particle swarm optimization based artificial neural network (PSO-NN) classifier systems. The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the performance of hybrid AIS-ANN and PSO-ANN classifiers with regard to the ANN and AIS. For this purpose, the normal sinus rhythm (NSR), atrial premature contraction (APC), sinus arrhythmia (SA), ventricular trigeminy (VTI), ventricular tachycardia (VTK) and atrial fibrillation (AF) data for each of the RR intervals were found. Then these data in the form of pairs (NSR-APC, NSR-SA, NSR-VTI, NSR-VTK and NSR-AF) is created by combining discrete wavelet transform which is applied to each of these two groups of data and two different data sets with 9 and 27 features were obtained from each of them after data reduction. Afterwards, the data randomly was firstly mixed within themselves, and then 4-fold cross validation method was applied to create the training and testing data. The training and testing accuracy rates and training time are compared with each other. As a result, performances of the hybrid classification systems, AIS-ANN and PSO-ANN were seen to be close to the performance of the ANN system. Also, the results of the hybrid systems were much better than AIS, too. However, ANN had much shorter period of training time than other systems. In terms of training times, ANN was followed by PSO-ANN, AIS-ANN and AIS systems respectively. Also, the features that extracted from the data affected the classification results significantly.

A Systematic Approach for Identifying Turning Center Capabilities with Vertical Machining Center in Milling Operation

Conventional machining is a form of subtractive manufacturing, in which a collection of material-working processes utilizing power-driven machine tools are used to remove undesired material to achieve a desired geometry. This paper presents an approach for comparison between turning center and vertical machining center by optimization of cutting parameters at cylindrical workpieces leading to minimum surface roughness by using taguchi methodology. Aluminum alloy was taken to conduct experiments due to its unique high strength-weight ratio that is maintained at elevated temperatures and their exceptional corrosion resistance. During testing, the effects of the cutting parameters on the surface roughness were investigated. Additionally, by using taguchi methodology for each of the cutting parameters (spindle speed, depth of cut, insert diameter, and feed rate) minimum surface roughness for the process of turn-milling was determined according to the cutting parameters. A confirmation experiment demonstrates the effectiveness of taguchi method.

Damage Localization of Deterministic-Stochastic Systems

A scheme integrated with deterministic–stochastic subspace system identification and the method of damage localization vector is proposed in this study for damage detection of structures based on seismic response data. A series of shaking table tests using a five-storey steel frame has been conducted in National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering (NCREE), Taiwan. Damage condition is simulated by reducing the cross-sectional area of some of the columns at the bottom. Both single and combinations of multiple damage conditions at various locations have been considered. In the system identification analysis, either full or partial observation conditions have been taken into account. It has been shown that the damaged stories can be identified from global responses of the structure to earthquakes if sufficiently observed. In addition to detecting damage(s) with respect to the intact structure, identification of new or extended damages of the as-damaged (ill-conditioned) counterpart has also been studied. The proposed scheme proves to be effective.

Adjustment and Compensation Techniques for the Rotary Axes of Five-axis CNC Machine Tools

Five-axis computer numerical control (CNC) machine tools (three linear and two rotary axes) are ideally suited to the fabrication of complex work pieces, such as dies, turbo blades, and cams. The locations of the axis average line and centerline of the rotary axes strongly influence the performance of these machines; however, techniques to compensate for eccentric error in the rotary axes remain weak. This paper proposes optical (Non-Bar) techniques capable of calibrating five-axis CNC machine tools and compensating for eccentric error in the rotary axes. This approach employs the measurement path in ISO/CD 10791-6 to determine the eccentric error in two rotary axes, for which compensatory measures can be implemented. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed techniques can improve the performance of various five-axis CNC machine tools by more than 90%. Finally, a result of the cutting test using a B-type five-axis CNC machine tool confirmed to the usefulness of this proposed compensation technique.

Influence of Strengthening with Perforated Steel Plates on the Behavior of Infill Walls and RC Frame

The contribution of the infill walls to the overall earthquake response of a structure is limited and this contribution is generally ignored in the analyses. Strengthening of the infill walls through different techniques has been and is being studied extensively in the literature to increase this limited contribution and the ductilities and energy absorption capacities of the infill walls to create non-structural components where the earthquake-induced energy can be absorbed without damaging the bearing components of the structural frame. The present paper summarizes an extensive research project dedicated to investigate the effects of strengthening the brick infill walls of a reinforced concrete (RC) frame on its lateral earthquake response. Perforated steel plates were used in strengthening due to several reasons, including the ductility and high deformation capacity of these plates, the fire resistant, recyclable and non-cancerogenic nature of mild steel, and the ease of installation and removal of the plates to the wall with the help of anchor bolts only. Furthermore, epoxy, which increases the cost and amount of labor of the strengthening process, is not needed in this technique. The individual behavior of the strengthened walls under monotonic diagonal and lateral reversed cyclic loading was investigated within the scope of the study. Upon achieving brilliant results, RC frames with strengthened infill walls were tested and are being tested to examine the influence of this strengthening technique on the overall behavior of the RC frames. Tests on the wall and frame specimens indicated that the perforated steel plates contribute to the lateral strength, rigidity, ductility and energy absorption capacity of the wall and the infilled frame to a major extent.

Maternal Smoking and Risk of Childhood Overweight and Obesity: A Meta-Analysis

The purpose of this study was to determine the significance of maternal smoking for the development of childhood overweight and/or obesity. Accordingly, a systematic literature review of English-language studies published from 1980 to 2012 using the following data bases: MEDLINE, PsychINFO, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Dissertation Abstracts International was conducted. The following terms were used in the search: pregnancy, overweight, obesity, smoking, parents, childhood, risk factors. Eighteen studies of maternal smoking during pregnancy and obesity conducted in Europe, Asia, North America, and South America met the inclusion criteria. A meta-analysis of these studies indicated that maternal smoking during pregnancy is a significant risk factor for overweight and obesity; mothers who smoke during pregnancy are at a greater risk for developing obesity or overweight; the quantity of cigarettes consumed by the mother during pregnancy influenced the odds of offspring overweight and/or obesity. In addition, the results from moderator analyses suggest that part of the heterogeneity discovered between the studies can be explained by the region of world that the study occurred in and the age of the child at the time of weight assessment.