A Multi-layer Artificial Neural Network Architecture Design for Load Forecasting in Power Systems

In this paper, the modelling and design of artificial neural network architecture for load forecasting purposes is investigated. The primary pre-requisite for power system planning is to arrive at realistic estimates of future demand of power, which is known as Load Forecasting. Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) helps in determining the economic, reliable and secure operating strategies for power system. The dependence of load on several factors makes the load forecasting a very challenging job. An over estimation of the load may cause premature investment and unnecessary blocking of the capital where as under estimation of load may result in shortage of equipment and circuits. It is always better to plan the system for the load slightly higher than expected one so that no exigency may arise. In this paper, a load-forecasting model is proposed using a multilayer neural network with an appropriately modified back propagation learning algorithm. Once the neural network model is designed and trained, it can forecast the load of the power system 24 hours ahead on daily basis and can also forecast the cumulative load on daily basis. The real load data that is used for the Artificial Neural Network training was taken from LDC, Gujarat Electricity Board, Jambuva, Gujarat, India. The results show that the load forecasting of the ANN model follows the actual load pattern more accurately throughout the forecasted period.

Control of Commutation of SR Motor Using Its Magnetic Characteristics and Back-of-Core Saturation Effects

The control of commutation of switched reluctance (SR) motor has nominally depended on a physical position detector. The physical rotor position sensor limits robustness and increases size and inertia of the SR drive system. The paper describes a method to overcome these limitations by using magnetization characteristics of the motor to indicate rotor and stator teeth overlap status. The method is using active current probing pulses of same magnitude that is used to simulate flux linkage in the winding being probed. A microprocessor is used for processing magnetization data to deduce rotor-stator teeth overlap status and hence rotor position. However, the back-of-core saturation and mutual coupling introduces overlap detection errors, hence that of commutation control. This paper presents the concept of the detection scheme and the effects of backof core saturation.

Factors of Effective Business Software Systems Development and Enhancement Projects Work Effort Estimation

Majority of Business Software Systems (BSS) Development and Enhancement Projects (D&EP) fail to meet criteria of their effectiveness, what leads to the considerable financial losses. One of the fundamental reasons for such projects- exceptionally low success rate are improperly derived estimates for their costs and time. In the case of BSS D&EP these attributes are determined by the work effort, meanwhile reliable and objective effort estimation still appears to be a great challenge to the software engineering. Thus this paper is aimed at presenting the most important synthetic conclusions coming from the author-s own studies concerning the main factors of effective BSS D&EP work effort estimation. Thanks to the rational investment decisions made on the basis of reliable and objective criteria it is possible to reduce losses caused not only by abandoned projects but also by large scale of overrunning the time and costs of BSS D&EP execution.

A Neural Computing-Based Approach for the Early Detection of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma, also called hepatoma, most commonly appears in a patient with chronic viral hepatitis. In patients with a higher suspicion of HCC, such as small or subtle rising of serum enzymes levels, the best method of diagnosis involves a CT scan of the abdomen, but only at high cost. The aim of this study was to increase the ability of the physician to early detect HCC, using a probabilistic neural network-based approach, in order to save time and hospital resources.

High Dynamic Range Resampling for Software Radio

The classic problem of recovering arbitrary values of a band-limited signal from its samples has an added complication in software radio applications; namely, the resampling calculations inevitably fold aliases of the analog signal back into the original bandwidth. The phenomenon is quantified by the spur-free dynamic range. We demonstrate how a novel application of the Remez (Parks- McClellan) algorithm permits optimal signal recovery and SFDR, far surpassing state-of-the-art resamplers.

A Utilitarian Approach to Modeling Information Flows in Social Networks

We propose a multi-agent based utilitarian approach to model and understand information flows in social networks that lead to Pareto optimal informational exchanges. We model the individual expected utility function of the agents to reflect the net value of information received. We show how this model, adapted from a theorem by Karl Borch dealing with an actuarial Risk Exchange concept in the Insurance industry, can be used for social network analysis. We develop a utilitarian framework that allows us to interpret Pareto optimal exchanges of value as potential information flows, while achieving a maximization of a sum of expected utilities of information of the group of agents. We examine some interesting conditions on the utility function under which the flows are optimal. We illustrate the promise of this new approach to attach economic value to information in networks with a synthetic example.

A Simulation Study of Bullwhip Effect in a Closed-Loop Supply Chain with Fuzzy Demand and Fuzzy Collection Rate under Possibility Constraints

Along with forward supply chain organization needs to consider the impact of reverse logistics due to its economic advantage, social awareness and strict legislations. In this paper, we develop a system dynamics framework for a closed-loop supply chain with fuzzy demand and fuzzy collection rate by incorporating product exchange policy in forward channel and various recovery options in reverse channel. The uncertainty issues associated with acquisition and collection of used product have been quantified using possibility measures. In the simulation study, we analyze order variation at both retailer and distributor level and compare bullwhip effects of different logistics participants over time between the traditional forward supply chain and the closed-loop supply chain. Our results suggest that the integration of reverse logistics can reduce order variation and bullwhip effect of a closed-loop system. Finally, sensitivity analysis is performed to examine the impact of various parameters on recovery process and bullwhip effect.

A Hybrid Distributed Vision System for Robot Localization

Localization is one of the critical issues in the field of robot navigation. With an accurate estimate of the robot pose, robots will be capable of navigating in the environment autonomously and efficiently. In this paper, a hybrid Distributed Vision System (DVS) for robot localization is presented. The presented approach integrates odometry data from robot and images captured from overhead cameras installed in the environment to help reduce possibilities of fail localization due to effects of illumination, encoder accumulated errors, and low quality range data. An odometry-based motion model is applied to predict robot poses, and robot images captured by overhead cameras are then used to update pose estimates with HSV histogram-based measurement model. Experiment results show the presented approach could localize robots in a global world coordinate system with localization errors within 100mm.

Folksonomy-based Recommender Systems with User-s Recent Preferences

Social bookmarking is an environment in which the user gradually changes interests over time so that the tag data associated with the current temporal period is usually more important than tag data temporally far from the current period. This implies that in the social tagging system, the newly tagged items by the user are more relevant than older items. This study proposes a novel recommender system that considers the users- recent tag preferences. The proposed system includes the following stages: grouping similar users into clusters using an E-M clustering algorithm, finding similar resources based on the user-s bookmarks, and recommending the top-N items to the target user. The study examines the system-s information retrieval performance using a dataset from del.icio.us, which is a famous social bookmarking web site. Experimental results show that the proposed system is better and more effective than traditional approaches.

Clinical and Methodological Issues in the Research on the Rape Myth

The purpose of this study is to revisit the concept of rape as represented by professionals in the literature as well as its perception (beliefs and attitudes) in the population at large and to propose methodological improvements to its measurement tool. Rape is a serious crime threatening its victim-s physical and mental health and integrity; and as such is legally prosecuted in all modern societies. The problem is not in accepting or rejecting rape as a criminal act, but rather in the vagueness of its interpretations and “justifications" maintained in the mentality of modern societies - known in the literature as the phenomenon of "rape-myth". The rapemyth can be studied from different perspectives: criminology, sociology, ethics, medicine and psychology. Its investigation requires rigorous scientific objectivity, free of passion (victims of rape are at risk of emotional bias), free of activism (social activists, even if wellintentioned are also biased), free of any pre-emptive assumptions or prejudices. To apply a rigorous scientific procedure, we need a solid, valid and reliable measurement. Rape is a form of heterosexual or homosexual aggression, violently forcing the victim to give-in in the sexual activity of the aggressor against her/his will. Human beings always try to “understand" or find a reason justifying their acts. Psychological literature provides multiple clinical and experimental examples of it; just to mention the famous studies by Milgram on the level of electroshock delivered by the “teacher" towards the “learner" if “scientifically justifiable" or the studies on the behavior of “prisoners" and the “guards" and many other experiments and field observations. Sigmund Freud presented the phenomenon of unconscious justification and called it rationalization. The multiple justifications, rationalizations and repeated opinions about sexual behavior contribute to a myth maintained in the society. What kind of “rationale" our societies apply to “understand" the non-consensual sexual behavior? There are many, just to mention few: • Sex is a ludistic activity for both participants, therefore – even if not consented – it should bring pleasure to both. • Everybody wants sex, but only men are allowed to manifest it openly while women have to pretend the opposite, thus men have to initiate sexual behavior and women would follow. • A person who strongly needs sex is free to manifest it and struggle to get it; the person who doesn-t want it must not reveal her/his sexual attraction and avoid risky situations; otherwise she/he is perceived as a promiscuous seducer. • A person who doesn-t fight against the sexual initiator unconsciously accepts the rape (does it explain why homosexual rapes are reported less frequently than rapes against women?). • Women who are raped deserve it because their wardrobe is very revealing and seducing and they ''willingly'' go to highly risky places (alleys, dark roads, etc.). • Men need to ventilate their sexual energy and if they are deprived of a partner their urge to have sex is difficult to control. • Men are supposed to initiate and insist even by force to have sex (their testosterone makes them both sexual and aggressive). The paper overviews numerous cultural beliefs about masculine versus feminine behavior and their impact on the “rape myth".

Evaluation of Seismic Damage for Gisha Bridge in Tehran by HAZUS Methodology

Transportation is of great importance in the current life of human beings. The transportation system plays many roles, from economical development to after-catastrophe aids such as rescue operation in the first hours and days after an earthquake. In after earthquakes response phase, transportation system acts as a basis for ground operations including rescue and relief operation, food providing for victims and etc. It is obvious that partial or complete obstruction of this system results in the stop of these operations. Bridges are one of the most important elements of transportation network. Failure of a bridge, in the most optimistic case, cuts the relation between two regions and in more developed countries, cuts the relation of numerous regions. In this paper, to evaluate the vulnerability and estimate the damage level of Tehran bridges, HAZUS method, developed by Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) with the aid of National Institute of Building Science (NIBS), is used for the first time in Iran. In this method, to evaluate the collapse probability, fragility curves are used. Iran is located on seismic belt and thus, it is vulnerable to earthquakes. Thus, the study of the probability of bridge collapses, as an important part of transportation system, during earthquakes is of great importance. The purpose of this study is to provide fragility curves for Gisha Bridge, one of the longest steel bridges in Tehran, as an important lifeline element. Besides, the damage probability for this bridge during a specific earthquake, introduced as scenario earthquakes, is calculated. The fragility curves show that for the considered scenario, the probability of occurrence of complete collapse for the bridge is 8.6%.

Effect of Lime on the California Bearing Ratio Behaviour of Fly Ash - mine Overburden Mixes

Typically thermal power plants are located near to surface coal mines that produce huge amount of fly ash as a waste byproduct. Disposal of fly ash causes significant economic and environmental problems. Now-a-days, research is going on for bulk utilization of fly ash. In order to increase its percentage utilization, an investigation was carried out to evaluate its potential for haul road construction. This paper presents the laboratory California bearing ratio (CBR) tests and evaluates the effect of lime on CBR behavior of fly ash - mine overburden mixes. Tests were performed with different percentages of lime (2%, 3%, 6%, and 9%). The results show that the increase in bearing ratio of fly ash-overburden mixes was achieved by lime treatment. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) analyses were conducted on 28 days cured specimens. The SEM study showed that the bearing ratio development is related to the microstructural development.

Interactive Fuzzy Multi-objective Programming in Land Re-organisational Planning for Sustainable Rural Development

Sustainability in rural production system can only be achieved if it can suitably satisfy the local requirement as well as the outside demand with the changing time. With the increased pressure from the food sector in a globalised world, the agrarian economy needs to re-organise its cultivable land system to be compatible with new management practices as well as the multiple needs of various stakeholders and the changing resource scenario. An attempt has been made to transform this problem into a multi-objective decisionmaking problem considering various objectives, resource constraints and conditional constraints. An interactive fuzzy multi-objective programming approach has been used for such a purpose taking a case study in Indian context to demonstrate the validity of the method.

The Emission Spectra Due to Exciton-Exciton Collisions in GaAs/AlGaAs Quantum Well System

Optical emission based on excitonic scattering processes becomes important in dense exciton systems in which the average distance between excitons is of the order of a few Bohr radii but still below the exciton screening threshold. The phenomena due to interactions among excited states play significant role in the emission near band edge of the material. The theory of two-exciton collisions for GaAs/AlGaAs quantum well systems is a mild attempt to understand the physics associated with the optical spectra due to excitonic scattering processes in these novel systems. The four typical processes considered give different spectral shape, peak position and temperature dependence of the emission spectra. We have used the theory of scattering together with the second order perturbation theory to derive the radiative power spontaneously emitted at an energy ħω by these processes. The results arrived at are purely qualitative in nature. The intensity of emitted light in quantum well systems varies inversely to the square of temperature, whereas in case of bulk materials it simply decreases with the  temperature.

Students' Acceptance of Incorporating Emerging Communication Technologies in Higher Education in Kuwait

Never has a revolution affected all aspects of humanity as the communication revolution during the past two decades. This revolution, with all its advances and utilities, swept the world thus becoming an integral part of our lives, hence giving way to emerging applications at the social, economic, political, and educational levels. More specifically, such applications have changed the delivery system through which learning is acquired by students. Interaction with educators, accessibility to content, and creative delivery options are but a few facets of the new learning experience now being offered through the use of technology in the educational field. With different success rates, third world countries have tried to pace themselves with use of educational technology in advanced parts of the world. One such country is the small rich-oil state of Kuwait which has tried to adopt the e-educational model, however, an evaluation of such trial is yet to be done. This study aimed to fill the void of research conducted around that topic. The study explored students' acceptance of incorporating communication technologies in higher education in Kuwait. Students' responses to survey questions presented an overview of the e-learning experience in this country, and drew a framework through which implications and suggestions for future research were discussed to better serve the advancement of e-education in developing countries.

An Optimization Model of CMMI-Based Software Project Risk Response Planning

Risk response planning is of importance for software project risk management (SPRM). In CMMI, risk management was in the third capability maturity level, which provides a framework for software project risk identification, assessment, risk planning, risk control. However, the CMMI-based SPRM currently lacks quantitative supporting tools, especially during the process of implementing software project risk planning. In this paper, an economic optimization model for selecting risk reduction actions in the phase of software project risk response planning is presented. Furthermore, an example taken from a Chinese software industry is illustrated to verify the application of this method. The research provides a risk decision method for project risk managers that can be used in the implementation of CMMI-based SPRM.

A Case Study of Collective Action in Fishermen's Wives Group (KUNITA), Malaysia

Collective action can be an effective means for local development as well as important strategy to enhance livelihoods especially among rural people. This article explores the level of collective action among members of Fishermen-s Wives Group (KUNITA) in Malaysia. KUNITA was established by the Malaysian Fishery Development Authority (LKIM) with an objective to increase the socio-economic status of fishermen-s families. The members who are mostly the wives and daughters of fishermen are strongly encouraged by LKIM to venture into entrepreneurship activities. The objective of this research was to see the level of collective action among members in KUNITA groups in the state of Selangor. The finding shows that high level of collective action among KUNITA members is strongly based on volunteerism. However, the level of cooperation among members in the group is relatively low. The findings present significant challenges for the group in maintaining the sustainability of KUNITA organization.

Probe Selection for Pathway-Specific Microarray Probe Design Minimizing Melting Temperature Variance

In molecular biology, microarray technology is widely and successfully utilized to efficiently measure gene activity. If working with less studied organisms, methods to design custom-made microarray probes are available. One design criterion is to select probes with minimal melting temperature variances thus ensuring similar hybridization properties. If the microarray application focuses on the investigation of metabolic pathways, it is not necessary to cover the whole genome. It is more efficient to cover each metabolic pathway with a limited number of genes. Firstly, an approach is presented which minimizes the overall melting temperature variance of selected probes for all genes of interest. Secondly, the approach is extended to include the additional constraints of covering all pathways with a limited number of genes while minimizing the overall variance. The new optimization problem is solved by a bottom-up programming approach which reduces the complexity to make it computationally feasible. The new method is exemplary applied for the selection of microarray probes in order to cover all fungal secondary metabolite gene clusters for Aspergillus terreus.

GeNS: a Biological Data Integration Platform

The scientific achievements coming from molecular biology depend greatly on the capability of computational applications to analyze the laboratorial results. A comprehensive analysis of an experiment requires typically the simultaneous study of the obtained dataset with data that is available in several distinct public databases. Nevertheless, developing a centralized access to these distributed databases rises up a set of challenges such as: what is the best integration strategy, how to solve nomenclature clashes, how to solve database overlapping data and how to deal with huge datasets. In this paper we present GeNS, a system that uses a simple and yet innovative approach to address several biological data integration issues. Compared with existing systems, the main advantages of GeNS are related to its maintenance simplicity and to its coverage and scalability, in terms of number of supported databases and data types. To support our claims we present the current use of GeNS in two concrete applications. GeNS currently contains more than 140 million of biological relations and it can be publicly downloaded or remotely access through SOAP web services.