Abstract: The quality of short term load forecasting can improve the efficiency of planning and operation of electric utilities. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are employed for nonlinear short term load forecasting owing to their powerful nonlinear mapping capabilities. At present, there is no systematic methodology for optimal design and training of an artificial neural network. One has often to resort to the trial and error approach. This paper describes the process of developing three layer feed-forward large neural networks for short-term load forecasting and then presents a heuristic search algorithm for performing an important task of this process, i.e. optimal networks structure design. Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is used to develop the optimum large neural network structure and connecting weights for one-day ahead electric load forecasting problem. PSO is a novel random optimization method based on swarm intelligence, which has more powerful ability of global optimization. Employing PSO algorithms on the design and training of ANNs allows the ANN architecture and parameters to be easily optimized. The proposed method is applied to STLF of the local utility. Data are clustered due to the differences in their characteristics. Special days are extracted from the normal training sets and handled separately. In this way, a solution is provided for all load types, including working days and weekends and special days. The experimental results show that the proposed method optimized by PSO can quicken the learning speed of the network and improve the forecasting precision compared with the conventional Back Propagation (BP) method. Moreover, it is not only simple to calculate, but also practical and effective. Also, it provides a greater degree of accuracy in many cases and gives lower percent errors all the time for STLF problem compared to BP method. Thus, it can be applied to automatically design an optimal load forecaster based on historical data.
Abstract: Gastric ulceration is a discontinuity in gastric mucosa, usually occurs due to imbalance between the gastric mucosal protective factors, that is called gastric mucosal barrier, and the aggressive factors, to which the mucosa is exposed. This study was carried out on sixty male Sprague-Dowely rats (12- 16 weeks old) allocated into two groups. The first control group and the second Gastric lesion group which induced by oral administration of a single daily dose of aspirin at a dose of 300 mg/kg body weight for 7 consecutive-days (6% aspirin solution will be prepared and each rat will be given 5 ml of that solution/kg body weight). Blood is collected 1, 2 and 3 weeks after induction of gastric ulceration. Significant increase in serum copper, nitric oxide, and prostaglandin E2 all over the period of experiment. Significant decrease in erythrocyte superoxide dismutase (t-SOD) activities, serum (calcium, phosphorus, glucose and insulin) levels. Non-significant changes in serum sodium and potassium levels are obtained.
Abstract: Since the advent of the information era, the Internet has
brought various positive effects in everyday life. Nevertheless,
recently, problems and side-effects have been noted. Internet
witch-trials and spread of pornography are only a few of these
problems.In this study, problems and causes of malicious replies on
internet boards were analyzed, using the key ideas of game theory. The
study provides a mathematical model for the internet reply game to
devise three possible plans that could efficiently counteract malicious
replies. Furthermore, seven specific measures that comply with one of
the three plans were proposed and evaluated according to the
importance and utility of each measure using the orthogonal array
survey and SPSS conjoint analysis.The conclusion was that the most
effective measure would be forbidding unsigned user access to
malicious replies. Also notable was that some analytically proposed
measures, when implemented, could backfire and encourage malicious
replies.
Abstract: IEEE 802.16 is a new wireless technology standard, it
has some advantages, including wider coverage, higher bandwidth,
and QoS support. As the new wireless technology for last mile
solution, there are designed two models in IEEE 802.16 standard. One
is PMP (point to multipoint) and the other is Mesh. In this paper we
only focus on IEEE 802.16 Mesh model. According to the IEEE
802.16 standard description, Mesh model has two scheduling modes,
centralized and distributed. Considering the pros and cons of the two
scheduling, we present the combined scheduling QoS framework that
the BS (Base Station) controls time frame scheduling and selects the
shortest path from source to destination directly. On the other hand, we
propose the Expedited Queue mechanism to cut down the transmission
time. The EQ mechanism can reduce a lot of end-to-end delay in our
QoS framework. Simulation study has shown that the average delay is
smaller than contrasts. Furthermore, our proposed scheme can also
achieve higher performance.
Abstract: In this paper, we propose an improvement of pattern
growth-based PrefixSpan algorithm, called I-PrefixSpan. The general idea of I-PrefixSpan is to use sufficient data structure for Seq-Tree
framework and separator database to reduce the execution time and
memory usage. Thus, with I-PrefixSpan there is no in-memory database stored after index set is constructed. The experimental result
shows that using Java 2, this method improves the speed of PrefixSpan up to almost two orders of magnitude as well as the memory usage to more than one order of magnitude.
Abstract: the aim of that work is to study the proton transfer
phenomenon which takes place in the elastic scattering of 12C on 11B
at energies near the coulomb barrier. This reaction was studied at four
different energies 16, 18, 22, 24 MeV. The experimental data of the
angular distribution at these energies were compared to the
calculation prediction using the optical potential codes such as
ECIS88 and SPIVAL. For the raising in the cross section at backward
angles due to the transfer process we could use Distorted Wave Born
Approximation (DWUCK5). Our analysis showed that SPIVAL code
with l-dependent imaginary potential could be used effectively.
Abstract: This paper presents the effectiveness of artificial
intelligent technique to apply for pattern recognition and
classification of Partial Discharge (PD). Characteristics of PD signal
for pattern recognition and classification are computed from the
relation of the voltage phase angle, the discharge magnitude and the
repeated existing of partial discharges by using statistical and fractal
methods. The simplified fuzzy ARTMAP (SFAM) is used for pattern
recognition and classification as artificial intelligent technique. PDs
quantities, 13 parameters from statistical method and fractal method
results, are inputted to Simplified Fuzzy ARTMAP to train system
for pattern recognition and classification. The results confirm the
effectiveness of purpose technique.
Abstract: Recently in the field of bridges that are newly built or
repaired, fast construction is required more than ever. For these
reasons, precast prefabricated bridge that enables rapid construction is
actively discussed and studied today. In South Korea, it is called
modular bridge. Cross beam is an integral component of modular
bridge. It functions for load distribution, reduction of bending
moment, resistance of horizontal strength on lateral upper structure. In
this study, the structural characteristics of domestic and foreign cross
beam types were compared. Based on this, alternative cross beam
connection types suitable for modular bridge were selected. And
bulb-T girder specimens were fabricated with each type of connection.
The behavior of each specimen was analyzed under static loading, and
cross beam connection type which is expected to be best suited to
modular bridge proposed.
Abstract: In this paper, SFQ (Start Time Fair Queuing)
algorithm is analyzed when this is applied in computer networks to
know what kind of behavior the traffic in the net has when different
data sources are managed by the scheduler. Using the NS2 software
the computer networks were simulated to be able to get the graphs
showing the performance of the scheduler. Different traffic sources
were introduced in the scripts, trying to establish the real scenario.
Finally the results were that depending on the data source, the traffic
can be affected in different levels, when Constant Bite Rate is
applied, the scheduler ensures a constant level of data sent and
received, but the truth is that in the real life it is impossible to ensure
a level that resists the changes in work load.
Abstract: In this paper, an automatic detecting algorithm for
QRS complex detecting was applied for analyzing ECG recordings
and five criteria for dangerous arrhythmia diagnosing are applied for a
protocol type of automatic arrhythmia diagnosing system. The
automatic detecting algorithm applied in this paper detected the
distribution of QRS complexes in ECG recordings and related
information, such as heart rate and RR interval. In this investigation,
twenty sampled ECG recordings of patients with different pathologic
conditions were collected for off-line analysis. A combinative
application of four digital filters for bettering ECG signals and
promoting detecting rate for QRS complex was proposed as
pre-processing. Both of hardware filters and digital filters were
applied to eliminate different types of noises mixed with ECG
recordings. Then, an automatic detecting algorithm of QRS complex
was applied for verifying the distribution of QRS complex. Finally,
the quantitative clinic criteria for diagnosing arrhythmia were
programmed in a practical application for automatic arrhythmia
diagnosing as a post-processor. The results of diagnoses by automatic
dangerous arrhythmia diagnosing were compared with the results of
off-line diagnoses by experienced clinic physicians. The results of
comparison showed the application of automatic dangerous
arrhythmia diagnosis performed a matching rate of 95% compared
with an experienced physician-s diagnoses.
Abstract: This paper deals with the effect of a power transformer’s vector group on the basic voltage sag characteristics during unbalanced faults at a meshed or radial power network. Specifically, the propagation of voltage sags through a power transformer is studied with advanced short-circuit analysis. A smart method to incorporate this effect on analytical mathematical expressions is proposed. Based on this methodology, the positive effect of transformers of certain vector groups on the mitigation of the expected number of voltage sags per year (sag frequency) at the terminals of critical industrial customers can be estimated.
Abstract: The main problem for recognition of handwritten Persian digits using Neural Network is to extract an appropriate feature vector from image matrix. In this research an asymmetrical segmentation pattern is proposed to obtain the feature vector. This pattern can be adjusted as an optimum model thanks to its one degree of freedom as a control point. Since any chosen algorithm depends on digit identity, a Neural Network is used to prevail over this dependence. Inputs of this Network are the moment of inertia and the center of gravity which do not depend on digit identity. Recognizing the digit is carried out using another Neural Network. Simulation results indicate the high recognition rate of 97.6% for new introduced pattern in comparison to the previous models for recognition of digits.
Abstract: When the failure function is monotone, some monotonic reliability methods are used to gratefully simplify and facilitate the reliability computations. However, these methods often work in a transformed iso-probabilistic space. To this end, a monotonic simulator or transformation is needed in order that the transformed failure function is still monotone. This note proves at first that the output distribution of failure function is invariant under the transformation. And then it presents some conditions under which the transformed function is still monotone in the newly obtained space. These concern the copulas and the dependence concepts. In many engineering applications, the Gaussian copulas are often used to approximate the real word copulas while the available information on the random variables is limited to the set of marginal distributions and the covariances. So this note catches an importance on the conditional monotonicity of the often used transformation from an independent random vector into a dependent random vector with Gaussian copulas.
Abstract: Mobile ad hoc network is a collection of mobile
nodes communicating through wireless channels without any existing
network infrastructure or centralized administration. Because of the
limited transmission range of wireless network interfaces, multiple
"hops" may be needed to exchange data across the network. In order
to facilitate communication within the network, a routing protocol is
used to discover routes between nodes. The primary goal of such an
ad hoc network routing protocol is correct and efficient route
establishment between a pair of nodes so that messages may be
delivered in a timely manner. Route construction should be done
with a minimum of overhead and bandwidth consumption. This paper
examines two routing protocols for mobile ad hoc networks– the
Destination Sequenced Distance Vector (DSDV), the table- driven
protocol and the Ad hoc On- Demand Distance Vector routing
(AODV), an On –Demand protocol and evaluates both protocols
based on packet delivery fraction, normalized routing load, average
delay and throughput while varying number of nodes, speed and
pause time.
Abstract: In this paper we propose and examine an Adaptive
Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) in Smoothing Transition
Autoregressive (STAR) modeling. Because STAR models follow
fuzzy logic approach, in the non-linear part fuzzy rules can be
incorporated or other training or computational methods can be
applied as the error backpropagation algorithm instead to nonlinear
squares. Furthermore, additional fuzzy membership functions can be
examined, beside the logistic and exponential, like the triangle,
Gaussian and Generalized Bell functions among others. We examine
two macroeconomic variables of US economy, the inflation rate and
the 6-monthly treasury bills interest rates.
Abstract: This paper presents three-phase evolution search methodology to automatically design fuzzy logic controllers (FLCs) that can work in a wide range of operating conditions. These include varying load, parameter variations, and unknown external disturbances. The three-phase scheme consists of an exploration phase, an exploitation phase and a robustness phase. The first two phases search for FLC with high accuracy performances while the last phase aims at obtaining FLC providing the best compromise between the accuracy and robustness performances. Simulations were performed for direct-drive two-axis robot arm. The evolved FLC with the proposed design technique found to provide a very satisfactory performance under the wide range of operation conditions and to overcome problem associated with coupling and nonlinearities characteristics inherent to robot arms.
Abstract: Feature selection plays an important role in applications with high dimensional data. The assessment of the stability of feature selection/ranking algorithms becomes an important issue when the dataset is small and the aim is to gain insight into the underlying process by analyzing the most relevant features. In this work, we propose a graphical approach that enables to analyze the similarity between feature ranking techniques as well as their individual stability. Moreover, it works with whatever stability metric (Canberra distance, Spearman's rank correlation coefficient, Kuncheva's stability index,...). We illustrate this visualization technique evaluating the stability of several feature selection techniques on a spectral binary dataset. Experimental results with a neural-based classifier show that stability and ranking quality may not be linked together and both issues have to be studied jointly in order to offer answers to the domain experts.
Abstract: A mathematical model for the transmission of SARS is developed. In addition to dividing the population into susceptible (high and low risk), exposed, infected, quarantined, diagnosed and recovered classes, we have included a class called untraced. The model simulates the Gompertz curves which are the best representation of the cumulative numbers of probable SARS cases in Hong Kong and Singapore. The values of the parameters in the model which produces the best fit of the observed data for each city are obtained by using a differential evolution algorithm. It is seen that the values for the parameters needed to simulate the observed daily behaviors of the two epidemics are different.
Abstract: BRI-STARS (BRIdge Stream Tube model for Alluvial
River Simulation) program was used to investigate the scour depth around bridge piers in some of the major river systems in Iran. Model
calibration was performed by collecting different field data. Field data are cataloged on three categories, first group of bridges that
their rivers bed are formed by fine material, second group of bridges
that their rivers bed are formed by sand material, and finally bridges that their rivers bed are formed by gravel or cobble materials.
Verification was performed with some field data in Fars Province. Results show that for wide piers, computed scour depth is more than
measured one. In gravel bed streams, computed scour depth is greater
than measured scour depth, the reason is due to formation of armor layer on bed of channel. Once this layer is eroded, the computed
scour depth is close to the measured one.
Abstract: The three-species food web model proposed and investigated by Gakkhar and Naji is known to have chaotic behaviour for a choice of parameters. An attempt has been made to synchronize the chaos in the model using bidirectional coupling. Numerical simulations are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the analytical results. Numerical results show that for higher value of coupling strength, chaotic synchronization is achieved. Chaos can be controlled to achieve stable synchronization in natural systems.