Abstract: This study discusses the effect of uncertainty on
production levels of a petrochemical complex. Uncertainly or
variations in some model parameters, such as prices, supply and
demand of materials, can affect the optimality or the efficiency of any
chemical process. For any petrochemical complex with many plants,
there are many sources of uncertainty and frequent variations which
require more attention. Many optimization approaches are proposed
in the literature to incorporate uncertainty within the model in order
to obtain a robust solution. In this work, a stability analysis approach
is applied to a deterministic LP model of a petrochemical complex
consists of ten plants to investigate the effect of such variations on
the obtained optimal production levels. The proposed approach can
determinate the allowable variation ranges of some parameters,
mainly objective or RHS coefficients, before the system lose its
optimality. Parameters with relatively narrow range of variations, i.e.
stability limits, are classified as sensitive parameters or constraints
that need accurate estimate or intensive monitoring. These stability
limits offer easy-to-use information to the decision maker and help in
understanding the interaction between some model parameters and
deciding when the system need to be re-optimize. The study shows
that maximum production of ethylene and the prices of intermediate
products are the most sensitive factors that affect the stability of the
optimum solution