Analysis of Maize Yield under Climate Change, Adaptations in Varieties and Planting Date in Northeast China in Recent Thirty Years
The Northeast China (NEC) was the most important
agriculture areas and known as the Golden-Maize-Belt. Based on
observed crop data and crop model, we design four simulating
experiments and separate relative impacts and contribution under
climate change, planting date shift, and varieties change as well
change of varieties and planting date. Without planting date and
varieties change, maize yields had no significant change trend at
Hailun station located in the north of NEC, and presented significant
decrease by 0.2 - 0.4 t/10a at two stations, which located in the middle
and the south of NEC. With planting date change, yields showed a
significant increase by 0.09 - 0.47 t/10a. With varieties change, maize
yields had significant increase by 1.8~ 1.9 t/10a at Hailun and Huadian
stations, but a non-significant and low increase by 0.2t /10a at Benxi
located in the south of NEC. With change of varieties and planting
date, yields presented a significant increasing by 0.53- 2.0 t/10a. Their
contribution to yields was -25% ~ -55% for climate change, 15% ~
35% for planting date change, and 20% ~110% for varieties change as
well 30% ~135% for varieties with planting date shift. It found that
change in varieties and planting date were highest yields and were
responsible for significant increases in maize yields, varieties was
secondly, and planting date was thirdly. It found that adaptation in
varieties and planting date greatly improved maize yields, and
increased yields annual variability. The increase of contribution with
planting date and varieties change in 2000s was lower than in 1990s.
Yields with the varieties change and yields with planting date and
varieties change all showed a decreasing trend at Huadian and Benxi
since 2002 or so. It indicated that maize yields increasing trend
stagnated in the middle and south of NEC, and continued in the north
of NEC.
[1] H.Q. Zhou, C.J. Wang, “Analysis on comprehensive capability of food
production in Northeast area,” Journal Northeast Agriculture University,
vol.4, pp. 5-8, 2006.
[2] X. L. Bai, S. X. Sun, G. H. Yang, M. Liu, Z.P. Zhang, “Effect of water
stress on maize yield during different growing stages,” Journal Maize
Science, vol.17, pp. 60–63, 2009.
[3] Y.H. Ding, G. Y. Ren, Z.C. Zhao, Y. Xu, Y. Luo, Q. P. Li, and J. Zhang,
“Detection, causes and projection of climate change over China: an
overview of recent progress,” Advance Atmospheric Science, vol.24, pp.
954–971, 2007.
[4] F. M. Yao, Y. L. Xu, E.D. Lin, M. Yokozawa, and J.H. Zhang, “Assessing
the impacts of climate change on rice yields in the main rice areas of
China,” Climatic Change, vol. 80, pp. 375-409,2007.
[5] H. Ju, M. Velde, E.D. Lin, W. Xiong, Y. E. Li, “The impacts of climate
change on agricultural production systems in China,” Climatic Change,
vol.120, pp.313–324, 2013.
[6] D. Xiao and F. L. Tao, “Contributions of cultivars, management and
climate change to winter wheat yield in the North China Plain in the past
three decades,” European Journal of Agronomy, vol. 52, pp. 112-122,
2014.
[7] C. Rosenzweig and F.N. Tubiello, “Adaption and mitigation stratagies in
agriculture: an analysis of potential aynergies,” Mitigation and
Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 12, 855-873, 2007.
[8] X. Yang, E. Lin, S. Ma, H. Ju, L. Guo, W. Xiong, Y. Li, and Y. Xu
Adaptation of agriculture to warming in Northeast China. Climatic
Change, vol. 84, pp. 45-58, 2007.
[9] Z. Qian, L.Z. Zhang, E. Jochem, D. W. Wopke, W.Q. Zhang, L.S. Duan,
“Maize yield and quality in response to plant density and application of a
novel plant growth regulator, “ Field Crops Research, vol. 164, pp.82-89,
2014.
[10] M.S. Babel and E. Turyatunga, “Evaluation of climate change impacts
and adaptation measures for maize cultivation in the western Uganda
agro-ecological zone,” Theortical and Applied Climatology, DOI
10.1007/s00704-014-1097-z, 2014.
[11] A.J. Challinor, J. Watson, D.B. Lobell, S. M. Howden, D.R. Smith and N.
Chhetri, “A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and
adaptation,” Nature, vol.4, pp. 287-291, 2014.
[12] Y. Yu, Y. Huang, W. Zhang, “Changes in rice yields in China since 1980
associated with cultivar improvement, climate and crop management,”
Field Crops Research, 136, 65-75, 2012.
[13] L. L. Liu, Y. Zhu, L. Tang, W. X. Cao, and E. L. Wang, “Impacts of
climate changes, soil nutrients, variety types and management practices
on rice yields in East China :A case study in the Taihu region,” Field crop
research, vol.149, pp. 40-48, 2013.
[14] X. Zhang, S. Wang, H. Sun, S. Chen, L. Shao, and X. Liu, “Contribution
of cultivar, fertilizer and weather to yield variation of winter wheat over
three decades: A case study in the North China Plain,” European Journal
of Agronomy, vol.50, pp.52–59, 2013.
[15] Y. Liu, E. L. Wang, X. G. Yang, and J. Wang, “Contributions of climatic
and crop varietal changes to crop production in the North China Plain,
since 1980s,” Global Change Biology, vol.16, pp. 2287–2299, 2010.
[16] C. A. Jones and J. R., CERES–Maize: a simulation model of maize
growth and development, 1986, Texas A&M University Press, College
Station.
[17] W. Xiong, I. Holman, D. Conway , E. D. Lin , and Y.E. Li, “A crop model
cross calibration for use in regional climate impacts studies,” Ecological
Modelling, vol.213, pp. 365–380, 2008.
[18] Zhang, X. Yang, H. Wang, Y Li, and Q. Ye, “Climatic and technological
ceilings for Chinese rice stagnation based on yield gaps and yield trend
pattern analysis,” Global Change Biology, vol. 20, pp. 1289-1298, 2014.
[19] Z.J. Liu, X. G. Yang, K. G. Hubbard, and X. M. Lin, “ Maize potential
yields and yield gaps in the changing climate of northeast China, Global
Change Biology,” vol.18, pp. 3441–3454, 2012.
[1] H.Q. Zhou, C.J. Wang, “Analysis on comprehensive capability of food
production in Northeast area,” Journal Northeast Agriculture University,
vol.4, pp. 5-8, 2006.
[2] X. L. Bai, S. X. Sun, G. H. Yang, M. Liu, Z.P. Zhang, “Effect of water
stress on maize yield during different growing stages,” Journal Maize
Science, vol.17, pp. 60–63, 2009.
[3] Y.H. Ding, G. Y. Ren, Z.C. Zhao, Y. Xu, Y. Luo, Q. P. Li, and J. Zhang,
“Detection, causes and projection of climate change over China: an
overview of recent progress,” Advance Atmospheric Science, vol.24, pp.
954–971, 2007.
[4] F. M. Yao, Y. L. Xu, E.D. Lin, M. Yokozawa, and J.H. Zhang, “Assessing
the impacts of climate change on rice yields in the main rice areas of
China,” Climatic Change, vol. 80, pp. 375-409,2007.
[5] H. Ju, M. Velde, E.D. Lin, W. Xiong, Y. E. Li, “The impacts of climate
change on agricultural production systems in China,” Climatic Change,
vol.120, pp.313–324, 2013.
[6] D. Xiao and F. L. Tao, “Contributions of cultivars, management and
climate change to winter wheat yield in the North China Plain in the past
three decades,” European Journal of Agronomy, vol. 52, pp. 112-122,
2014.
[7] C. Rosenzweig and F.N. Tubiello, “Adaption and mitigation stratagies in
agriculture: an analysis of potential aynergies,” Mitigation and
Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 12, 855-873, 2007.
[8] X. Yang, E. Lin, S. Ma, H. Ju, L. Guo, W. Xiong, Y. Li, and Y. Xu
Adaptation of agriculture to warming in Northeast China. Climatic
Change, vol. 84, pp. 45-58, 2007.
[9] Z. Qian, L.Z. Zhang, E. Jochem, D. W. Wopke, W.Q. Zhang, L.S. Duan,
“Maize yield and quality in response to plant density and application of a
novel plant growth regulator, “ Field Crops Research, vol. 164, pp.82-89,
2014.
[10] M.S. Babel and E. Turyatunga, “Evaluation of climate change impacts
and adaptation measures for maize cultivation in the western Uganda
agro-ecological zone,” Theortical and Applied Climatology, DOI
10.1007/s00704-014-1097-z, 2014.
[11] A.J. Challinor, J. Watson, D.B. Lobell, S. M. Howden, D.R. Smith and N.
Chhetri, “A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and
adaptation,” Nature, vol.4, pp. 287-291, 2014.
[12] Y. Yu, Y. Huang, W. Zhang, “Changes in rice yields in China since 1980
associated with cultivar improvement, climate and crop management,”
Field Crops Research, 136, 65-75, 2012.
[13] L. L. Liu, Y. Zhu, L. Tang, W. X. Cao, and E. L. Wang, “Impacts of
climate changes, soil nutrients, variety types and management practices
on rice yields in East China :A case study in the Taihu region,” Field crop
research, vol.149, pp. 40-48, 2013.
[14] X. Zhang, S. Wang, H. Sun, S. Chen, L. Shao, and X. Liu, “Contribution
of cultivar, fertilizer and weather to yield variation of winter wheat over
three decades: A case study in the North China Plain,” European Journal
of Agronomy, vol.50, pp.52–59, 2013.
[15] Y. Liu, E. L. Wang, X. G. Yang, and J. Wang, “Contributions of climatic
and crop varietal changes to crop production in the North China Plain,
since 1980s,” Global Change Biology, vol.16, pp. 2287–2299, 2010.
[16] C. A. Jones and J. R., CERES–Maize: a simulation model of maize
growth and development, 1986, Texas A&M University Press, College
Station.
[17] W. Xiong, I. Holman, D. Conway , E. D. Lin , and Y.E. Li, “A crop model
cross calibration for use in regional climate impacts studies,” Ecological
Modelling, vol.213, pp. 365–380, 2008.
[18] Zhang, X. Yang, H. Wang, Y Li, and Q. Ye, “Climatic and technological
ceilings for Chinese rice stagnation based on yield gaps and yield trend
pattern analysis,” Global Change Biology, vol. 20, pp. 1289-1298, 2014.
[19] Z.J. Liu, X. G. Yang, K. G. Hubbard, and X. M. Lin, “ Maize potential
yields and yield gaps in the changing climate of northeast China, Global
Change Biology,” vol.18, pp. 3441–3454, 2012.
@article{"International Journal of Biological, Life and Agricultural Sciences:70716", author = "Zhan Fengmei Yao and Hui Li and Jiahua Zhang g", title = "Analysis of Maize Yield under Climate Change, Adaptations in Varieties and Planting Date in Northeast China in Recent Thirty Years", abstract = "The Northeast China (NEC) was the most important
agriculture areas and known as the Golden-Maize-Belt. Based on
observed crop data and crop model, we design four simulating
experiments and separate relative impacts and contribution under
climate change, planting date shift, and varieties change as well
change of varieties and planting date. Without planting date and
varieties change, maize yields had no significant change trend at
Hailun station located in the north of NEC, and presented significant
decrease by 0.2 - 0.4 t/10a at two stations, which located in the middle
and the south of NEC. With planting date change, yields showed a
significant increase by 0.09 - 0.47 t/10a. With varieties change, maize
yields had significant increase by 1.8~ 1.9 t/10a at Hailun and Huadian
stations, but a non-significant and low increase by 0.2t /10a at Benxi
located in the south of NEC. With change of varieties and planting
date, yields presented a significant increasing by 0.53- 2.0 t/10a. Their
contribution to yields was -25% ~ -55% for climate change, 15% ~
35% for planting date change, and 20% ~110% for varieties change as
well 30% ~135% for varieties with planting date shift. It found that
change in varieties and planting date were highest yields and were
responsible for significant increases in maize yields, varieties was
secondly, and planting date was thirdly. It found that adaptation in
varieties and planting date greatly improved maize yields, and
increased yields annual variability. The increase of contribution with
planting date and varieties change in 2000s was lower than in 1990s.
Yields with the varieties change and yields with planting date and
varieties change all showed a decreasing trend at Huadian and Benxi
since 2002 or so. It indicated that maize yields increasing trend
stagnated in the middle and south of NEC, and continued in the north
of NEC.", keywords = "Climate change, maize yields, varieties, planting date,
impacts.", volume = "9", number = "11", pages = "1145-6", }