Abstract: Storage tank farms are essential industrial facilities to accumulate oil, petrochemicals and gaseous products. Since tank farms contain huge mass of fuel and hazardous materials, they are always targets of serious accidents such as fire, explosion, spill and toxic release which may cause severe impacts on human health, environmental and properties.
Although having a safe layout is not able to prevent initiating accidents, however it effectively controls and reduces the adverse impact of such accidents.
The aim of this paper is to determine the optimal layout for a storage tank contains different type of hydrocarbon fuels. A quantitative risk assessment is carried out on a selected tank farm in Jaipur, India, with particular attention given to both the consequence modeling and the overall risk assessment using PHAST Software. Various designs of tank layouts are examined taking into consideration several issues of plant operations and maintenance. In all stages of the work, standard guidelines specified by the industry are considered and recommendations are substantiated with simulation results and risk quantification.
Abstract: Considerable focus in the world of insurance risk quantification is placed on modeling loss values from lines of business (LOBs) that possess upper tail dependence. Copulas such as the Joe, Gumbel and Student-t copula may be used for this purpose. The copula structure imparts a desired level of tail dependence on the joint distribution of claims from the different LOBs. Alternatively, practitioners may possess historical or simulated data that already exhibit upper tail dependence, through the impact of catastrophe events such as hurricanes or earthquakes. In these circumstances, it is not desirable to induce additional upper tail dependence when modeling the joint distribution of the loss values from the individual LOBs. Instead, it is of interest to accurately assess the degree of tail dependence already present in the data. The empirical copula and its associated upper tail dependence coefficient are presented in this paper as robust, efficient means of achieving this goal.
Abstract: Construction of tunnels is connected with high
uncertainty in the field of costs, construction period, safety and
impact on surroundings. Risk management became therefore a
common part of tunnel projects, especially after a set of fatal
collapses occurred in 1990's. Such collapses are caused usually by
combination of factors that can be divided into three main groups, i.e.
unfavourable geological conditions, failures in the design and
planning or failures in the execution.
This paper suggests a procedure enabling quantification of the
excavation risk related to extraordinary accidents using FTA and
ETA tools. It will elaborate on a common process of risk analysis and
enable the transfer of information and experience between particular
tunnel construction projects. Further, it gives a guide for designers,
management and other participants, how to deal with risk of such
accidents and how to make qualified decisions based on a
probabilistic approach.