Abstract: An aspect of client expenditure management that requires attention is the level of accuracy achievable in design-stage elemental cost planning. This has been a major concern for construction clients and practitioners in New Zealand (NZ). Pre-tender estimating inaccuracies are significantly influenced by the level of risk information available to estimators. Proper cost planning activities should ensure the production of a project’s likely construction costs (initial and final), and subsequent cost control activities should prevent unpleasant consequences of cost overruns, disputes and project abandonment. If risks were properly identified and priced at the design stage, observed variance between design-stage elemental cost plans (ECPs) and final tender sums (FTS) (initial contract sums) could be reduced. This study investigates the variations between design-stage ECPs and FTS of construction projects, with a view to identifying risk factors that are responsible for the observed variance. Data were sourced through interviews, and risk factors were identified by using thematic analysis. Access was obtained to project files from the records of study participants (consultant quantity surveyors), and document analysis was employed in complementing the responses from the interviews. Study findings revealed the discrepancies between ECPs and FTS in the region of -14% and +16%. It is opined in this study that the identified risk factors were responsible for the variability observed. The values obtained from the analysis would enable greater accuracy in the forecast of FTS by Quantity Surveyors. Further, whilst inherent risks in construction project developments are observed globally, these findings have important ramifications for construction projects by expanding existing knowledge on what is needed for reasonable budgetary performance and successful delivery of construction projects. The findings contribute significantly to the study by providing quantitative confirmation to justify the theoretical conclusions generated in the literature from around the world. This therefore adds to and consolidates existing knowledge.
Abstract: Apolipoprotein E (APOE) gene polymorphism has influence on serum lipids which relates to cardiovascular risk. The purpose of this study was to determine the frequency distribution of APOE alleles among Malaysian Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (DM) patients with and without coronary artery disease (CAD) and their association with serum lipid profiles. A total of 115 patients were recruited in which 78 patients had Type 2 DM without CAD and 37 patients had Type 2 DM with CAD. The APOE polymorphism was detected by polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP). The APOE ɛ3 allele was the most common one in both groups. There was no significant association between the APOE genotypes and the CAD status in Type 2 DM using Pearson χ2 test. Further analysis indicated there were no significant differences in all lipid parameters between E2, E3 and E4 subgroups in both groups. The study showed that the E4 allele carriers of Type 2 DM with CAD patients had higher LDL-C level and lower HDL-C level compared to the other allele carriers. However, analyses showed these levels were not statistically different. The study also showed that the Type 2 DM with CAD group with E2 allele had higher triglyceride (TG). In conclusion, further study with larger sample size is needed to confirm role of E4 as a marker of CAD among Type 2 DM patients in Malaysian population.
Abstract: Power system security analysis is the most time demanding process due to large number of possible contingencies that need to be analyzed. In a power system, any contingency resulting in security violation such as line overload or low voltage may occur for a number of reasons at any time. To efficiently rank a contingency, both probability and the extent of security violation must be considered so as not to underestimate the risk associated with the contingency. This paper proposed a contingency ranking method that take into account the probabilistic nature of power system and the severity of contingency by using a newly developed method based on risk factor. The proposed technique is implemented on IEEE 24-bus system.
Abstract: The cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the EU, especially in the middle aged and elderly population. Psychological wellbeing (PWB) has been linked with better cardiovascular health and survival in the elderly. The aim of the study is to evaluate associations between CVD risk and PWB in middle-aged and elderly population. 10,940 middle aged and older Lithuanians of age 45-74 years, were invited to participate in the study. A study sample was a random and stratified by gender and age. In 2006-2008 7,087 responders participated in the survey, so the response rate was 64.8%. A follow-up study was conducted from 2006 till 2015. New CVD cases and deaths from CVD were evaluated using the Kaunas population-based CVD register and death register of Kaunas. Study results revealed that good PWB predicts longer life in female participants (Log Rank = 13.7, p < 0.001). In the fully adjusted model for socio-demographic, social and CVD risk factors, hazard ratio for CVD mortality risk was lower amongst women with good PWB (HR = 0.28, 95% CI 0.11-0.72), but not significantly for men. Our study concludes, that lower CVD mortality rates is being associated with better PWB in female aged 45-74 years.
Abstract: The main objective of the current work is to introduce sustainability factors in optimizing the supply chain model for process industries. The supply chain models are normally based on purely economic considerations related to costs and profits. To account for sustainability, two additional factors have been introduced; environment and risk. A supply chain for an entire petroleum organization has been considered for implementing and testing the proposed optimization models. The environmental and risk factors were introduced as indicators reflecting the anticipated impact of the optimal production scenarios on sustainability. The aggregation method used in extending the single objective function to multi-objective function is proven to be quite effective in balancing the contribution of each objective term. The results indicate that introducing sustainability factor would slightly reduce the economic benefit while improving the environmental and risk reduction performances of the process industries.
Abstract: The article deals with the problems of labour migration in the Russian Federation in the context of Russia's national security, provides the typology of migrants residing in the territory of the Russian Federation and analyzes the risk factors. The author considers the structure of migration flows and the terms of legal, economic and socio-cultural adaptation of migrants in the Russian Federation. In this connection, the status of the Russian migration legislation, the concept of the comprehensive exam in Russian as a foreign language, history of Russia and the basics of the Russian Federation legislation for foreign citizens which was introduced in Russia on January 1, 2015, are analyzed. The article discloses its role as the adaptation strategy and the factor of Russia's migration security.
Abstract: Forest fire, which is, an uncontrolled fire occurring in nature has become a major concern for the Forestry Commission of Ghana (FCG). The forest fires in Ghana usually result in massive destruction and take a long time for the firefighting crews to gain control over the situation. In order to assess the effect of forest fire at local scale, it is important to consider the role fire plays in vegetation composition, biodiversity, soil erosion, and the hydrological cycle. The occurrence, frequency and behaviour of forest fires vary over time and space, primarily as a result of the complicated influences of changes in land use, vegetation composition, fire suppression efforts, and other indigenous factors. One of the forest zones in Ghana with a high level of vegetation stress is the Goaso forest area. The area has experienced changes in its traditional land use such as hunting, charcoal production, inefficient logging practices and rural abandonment patterns. These factors which were identified as major causes of forest fire, have recently modified the incidence of fire in the Goaso area. In spite of the incidence of forest fires in the Goaso forest area, most of the forest services do not provide a cartographic representation of the burned areas. This has resulted in significant amount of information being required by the firefighting unit of the FCG to understand fire risk factors and its spatial effects. This study uses Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System techniques to develop a fire risk hazard model using the Goaso Forest Area (GFA) as a case study. From the results of the study, natural forest, agricultural lands and plantation cover types were identified as the major fuel contributing loads. However, water bodies, roads and settlements were identified as minor fuel contributing loads. Based on the major and minor fuel contributing loads, a forest fire risk hazard model with a reasonable accuracy has been developed for the GFA to assist decision making.
Abstract: In 2013 and 2014, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) collected data from selected fast food restaurants and full service restaurants for tracking changes in the occurrence of foodborne illness risk factors. This paper discussed how we customized spatial random sampling method by considering financial position and availability of FDA resources, and how we enriched restaurants data with location. Location information of restaurants provides opportunity for quantitatively determining random sampling within non-government units (e.g.: 240 kilometers around each data-collector). Spatial analysis also could optimize data-collectors’ work plans and resource allocation. Spatial analytic and processing platform helped us handling the spatial random sampling challenges. Our method fits in FDA’s ability to pinpoint features of foodservice establishments, and reduced both time and expense on data collection.
Abstract: Background: The 2004 World Health Assembly called for specific actions to halt the overweight and obesity epidemic that is currently penetrating urban populations in the developing world. Adolescents require particular attention due to their vulnerability to develop obesity and the fact that adolescent weight tracks strongly into adulthood. However, there is scarcity of information on the modifiable risk factors to be targeted for primary intervention among urban adolescents in Ethiopia. This study was aimed at determining the magnitude and risk factors of overweight and obesity among high school adolescents in Addis Ababa. Methods: An institution-based cross-sectional study was conducted in February and March 2014 on 456 randomly selected adolescents from 20 high schools in Addis Ababa city. Demographic data and other risk factors of overweight and obesity were collected using self-administered structured questionnaire, whereas anthropometric measurements of weight and height were taken using calibrated equipment and standardized techniques. The WHO STEPS instrument for chronic disease risk was applied to assess dietary habit and physical activity. Overweight and obesity status was determined based on BMI-for-age percentiles of WHO 2007 reference population. Results: The prevalence rates of overweight, obesity, and overall overweight/ obesity among high school adolescents in Addis Ababa were 9.7% (95%CI = 6.9-12.4%), 4.2% (95%CI = 2.3-6.0%), and 13.9% (95%CI = 10.6-17.1%), respectively. Overweight/obesity prevalence was highest among female adolescents, in private schools, and in the higher wealth category. In multivariable regression model, being female [AOR(95%CI) = 5.4(2.5,12.1)], being from private school [AOR(95%CI) = 3.0(1.4,6.2)], having >3 regular meals [AOR(95%CI) = 4.0(1.3,13.0)], consumption of sweet foods [AOR(95%CI) = 5.0(2.4,10.3)] and spending >3 hours/day sitting [AOR(95%CI) = 3.5(1.7,7.2)] were found to increase overweight/ obesity risk, whereas high Total Physical Activity level [AOR(95%CI) = 0.21(0.08,0.57)] and better nutrition knowledge [AOR(95%CI) = 0.160.07,0.37)] were found protective. Conclusions: More than one in ten of the high school adolescents were affected by overweight/obesity with dietary habit and physical activity are important modifiable risk factors. Well-tailored nutrition education program targeting lifestyle change should be initiated with more emphasis to female adolescents and students in private schools.
Abstract: The under-5 mortality rate is high in sub-Saharan Africa with Lesotho being amongst the highest under-5 mortality rates in the world. The objective of the study is to determine the factors associated with under-5 mortality in Lesotho. The data used for this analysis come from the nationally representative household survey called the 2009 Lesotho Demographic and Health Survey. Odds ratios produced by the logistic regression models were used to measure the effect of each independent variable on the dependent variable. Female children were significantly 38% less likely to die than male children. Children who were breastfed for 13 to 18 months and those who were breastfed for more than 19 months were significantly less likely to die than those who were breastfed for 12 months or less. Furthermore, children of mothers who stayed in Quthing, Qacha’s Nek and Thaba Tseka ran the greatest risk of dying. The results suggested that: sex of child, type of birth, breastfeeding duration, district, source of energy and marital status were significant predictors of under-5 mortality, after correcting for all variables.
Abstract: Intense oxidative stress, increased glycated hemoglobin and mineral imbalance represent risk factors for complications in diabetic patients. Cardiovascular complications are most common in these patients, including nephropathy. This study was conducted in 2015 at the Procardia Laboratory in Tîrgu Mureș, Romania on 40 type 2 diabetic adults. Routine biochemical tests were performed on the Konleab 20XTi analyzer (serum glucose, total cholesterol, LDL and HDL cholesterol, triglyceride, creatinine, urea). We also measured serum uric acid, magnesium and calcium concentration by photometric procedures, potassium, sodium and chloride by ion selective electrode, and chromium by atomic absorption spectrometry in a group of patients. Glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) dosage was made by reflectometry. Urine analysis was performed using the HandUReader equipment. The level of oxidative stress was measured by serum malondialdehyde dosage using the thiobarbituric acid reactive substances method. MDRD (Modification of Diet in Renal Disease) formula was applied for calculation of creatinine-derived glomerular filtration rate. GraphPad InStat software was used for statistical analysis of the data. The diabetic subject included in the study presented high MDA concentrations, showing intense oxidative stress. Calcium was deficient in 5% of the patients, chromium deficiency was present in 28%. The atherogenic cholesterol fraction was elevated in 13% of the patients. Positive correlation was found between creatinine and MDRD-creatinine values (p
Abstract: Hypertension is a common condition causing cardio
and cerebrovascular complications. Portugal has one of the highest
mortality rates from stroke and a high prevalence of hypertension.
Systolic Blood Pressure (SBP) is an important risk factor for
cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction and stroke) and
premature mortality, particularly in the elderly population. The
present study aims to estimate the prevalence of hypertension in a
Portuguese population living in a coastal city and to identify some of
its determinants (namely gender, age, the body mass index and
physical activity frequency). A total of 91 adults who attended three pharmacies of a coastal
city in the center of Portugal, between May and August of 2013 were
evaluated. Attendants who reported to have diabetes or taking
antihypertensive drugs in the 2 previous weeks were excluded from
the study. Sociodemographic factors, BMI, habits of exercise and BP
were assessed. Hypertension was defined as blood pressure ≥140/90
mmHg. The majority of the studied population was constituted by women
(75.8%), with a mean age of 54.2±1.6 years old, married or living in
civil union and that had completed secondary school or had higher
education (40%). They presented a mean BMI of 26.2±4.76 Kg/m2.,
and were sedentary. The mean BP was 127.0±17.77mmHg- 74.69 ±
9.53. In this population we found 4.3% of people with hypertension
and 16.1% with normal high blood pressure. Men exhibit a tendency to present higher systolic blood pressure
values than women. Of all the factors considered, SBP values also
tended to be higher with age and higher BMI values.
Despite the fact that the mean values of SBP did not present values
higher than 140 mmHg we must be concerned because the studied
population is undiagnosed for hypertension. Although this is a preliminary study, it might be a prelude to the
upcoming research about the underlying factors responsible for the
occurrence of SBP.
Abstract: Objectives: To determine the nutritional status and
risk factors associated with women practicing geophagia in QwaQwa,
South Africa. Materials and Methods: An observational epidemiological study
design was adopted which included an exposed (geophagia) and nonexposed
(control) group. A food frequency questionnaire, anthropometric measurements and blood sampling were applied to
determine nutritional status of participants. Logistic regression
analysis was performed in order to identify factors that were likely to
be associated with the practice of geophagia. Results: The mean total energy intake for the geophagia group (G)
and control group (C) were 10324.31 ± 2755.00 kJ and 10763.94 ±
2556.30 kJ respectively. Both groups fell within the overweight
category according to the mean Body Mass Index (BMI) of each
group (G= 25.59 kg/m2; C= 25.14 kg/m2). The mean serum iron
levels of the geophagia group (6.929 μmol/l) were significantly lower
than that of the control group (13.75 μmol/l) (p = 0.000). Serum
transferrin (G=3.23g/l; C=2.7054g/l) and serum transferrin saturation
(G=8.05%; C=18.74%) levels also differed significantly between
groups (p=0.00). Factors that were associated with the practice of
geophagia included haemoglobin (Odds ratio (OR):14.50), serumiron
(OR: 9.80), serum-ferritin (OR: 3.75), serum-transferrin (OR:
6.92) and transferrin saturation (OR: 14.50). A significant negative
association (p=0.014) was found between women who were wageearners
and those who were not wage-earners and the practice of
geophagia (OR: 0.143; CI: 0.027; 0.755). These findings seem to
indicate that a permanent income may decrease the likelihood of
practising geophagia. Key Findings: Geophagia was confirmed to be a risk factor for
iron deficiency in this community. The significantly strong
association between geophagia and iron deficiency emphasizes the
importance of identifying the practice of geophagia in women,
especially during their child bearing years.
Abstract: The availability to deploy mobile applications for
health care is increasing daily thru different mobile app stores. But
within these capabilities the number of hacking attacks has also
increased, in particular into medical mobile applications. The security
vulnerabilities in medical mobile apps can be triggered by errors in
code, incorrect logic, poor design, among other parameters. This is
usually used by malicious attackers to steal or modify the users’
information. The aim of this research is to analyze the vulnerabilities
detected in mobile medical apps according to risk factor standards
defined by OWASP in 2014.
Abstract: In many countries, governments have been promoting the involvement of private sector entities to enter into long-term agreements for the development and delivery of large infrastructure projects, with a focus on overcoming the limitations upon public fund of the traditional approach. The involvement of private sector through public private partnerships (PPP) brings in new capital investments, value for money and additional risks to handle. Worldwide research studies have shown that an objective, systematic, reliable and useroriented risk assessment process and an optimal allocation mechanism among different stakeholders is crucial to the successful completion. In this framework, this paper, which is the first stage of a research study, aims to identify the main risks for the delivery of PPP projects. A review of cross-countries research projects and case studies was performed to map the key risks affecting PPP infrastructure delivery. The matrix of mapping offers a summary of the frequency of factors, clustered in eleven categories: construction, design, economic, legal, market, natural, operation, political, project finance, project selection and relationship. Results will highlight the most critical risk factors, and will hopefully assist the project managers in directing the managerial attention in the further stages of risk allocation.
Abstract: Breast cancer is in the top rate of cancer. We analyzed
the prevalence of obesity and its association with breast cancer and
finally we reviewed 25 article that 320 patient and 320 control which
enrolled to our study. The distribution of breast cancer patients and
controls with respect to their anthropometric indices in patients with
higher weight, which was statistically significant (60.2 ± 10.2 kg)
compared with control group (56.1 ± 11.3 kg). The body mass index
of patients was (26.06+/-3.42) and significantly higher than the
control group (24.1+/-1.7). Obesity leads to increased levels of
adipose tissue in the body that can be stored toxins and carcinogens
to produce a continuous supply. Due to the high level of fat and the
role of estrogen in a woman which is endogenous estrogen of the
tumor and regulates the activities of growth steroids, obesity has
confirmed as a risk factor for breast cancer. Our study and other
studies have shown that obesity is a risk factor for breast cancer. And
it can be prevented with a weight loss intervention for breast cancer
in the future.
Abstract: In this paper we propose a computer-aided solution
with Genetic Algorithms in order to reduce the drafting of reports:
FMEA analysis and Control Plan required in the manufacture of the
product launch and improved knowledge development teams for
future projects. The solution allows to the design team to introduce
data entry required to FMEA. The actual analysis is performed using
Genetic Algorithms to find optimum between RPN risk factor and
cost of production. A feature of Genetic Algorithms is that they are
used as a means of finding solutions for multi criteria optimization
problems. In our case, along with three specific FMEA risk factors is
considered and reduce production cost. Analysis tool will generate
final reports for all FMEA processes. The data obtained in FMEA
reports are automatically integrated with other entered parameters in
Control Plan. Implementation of the solution is in the form of an
application running in an intranet on two servers: one containing
analysis and plan generation engine and the other containing the
database where the initial parameters and results are stored. The
results can then be used as starting solutions in the synthesis of other
projects. The solution was applied to welding processes, laser cutting
and bending to manufacture chassis for buses. Advantages of the
solution are efficient elaboration of documents in the current project
by automatically generating reports FMEA and Control Plan using
multiple criteria optimization of production and build a solid
knowledge base for future projects. The solution which we propose is
a cheap alternative to other solutions on the market using Open
Source tools in implementation.
Abstract: This article focuses on upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders risk assessment model at workplace. In this model are used risk factors that are responsible for musculoskeletal system damage. Based on statistic calculations the model is able to define what risk of MSD threatens workers who are under risk factors. The model is also able to say how MSD risk would decrease if these risk factors are eliminated.
Abstract: In Brazil, neonatal mortality rate is considered
incompatible with the country development conditions, and has been
a Public Health concern. Reduction in infant mortality rates has also
been part of the Millennium Development Goals, a commitment
made by countries, members of the Organization of United Nations
(OUN), including Brazil. Fetal mortality rate is considered a highly
sensitive indicator of health care quality. Suitable actions, such as
good quality and access to health services may contribute positively
towards reduction in these fetal and neonatal rates. With appropriate
antenatal follow-up and health care during gestation and delivery,
some death causes could be reduced or even prevented by means of
early diagnosis and intervention, as well as changes in risk factors
and interventions. Objectives: To study the quality of maternal and
infant health care based on fetal and neonatal mortality, as well as the
possible actions to prevent those deaths in Botucatu (Brazil).
Methods: Classification of prevention according to the International
Classification of Diseases and the modified Wigglesworth´s
classification. In order to evaluate adequacy, indicators of quality of
antenatal and delivery care were established by the authors. Results:
Considering fetal deaths, 56.7% of them occurred before delivery,
which reveals possible shortcomings in antenatal care, and 38.2% of
them were a result of intra- labor changes, which could be prevented
or reduced by adequate obstetric management. These findings were
different from those in the group of early neonatal deaths which were
also studied. Adequacy of health services showed that antenatal and
childbirth care was appropriate for 24% and 33.3% of pregnant
women, respectively, which corroborates the results of prevention.
These results revealed that shortcomings in obstetric and antenatal
care could be the causes of deaths in the study. Early and late
neonatal deaths have similar characteristics: 76% could be prevented
or reduced mainly by adequate newborn care (52.9%) and adequate
health care for gestational women (11.7%). When adequacy of care
was evaluated, childbirth and newborn care was adequate in 25.8%
and antenatal care was adequate in 16.1%. In conclusion, direct
relationship was found between adequacy and quality of care
rendered to pregnant women and newborns, and fetal and infant
mortality. Moreover, our findings highlight that deaths could be
prevented by an adequate obstetric and neonatal management.
Abstract: Children are more susceptible to medication errors
than adults. Medication administration process is the last stage in the
medication treatment process and most of the errors detected in this
stage. Little research has been undertaken about medication errors in
children in the Middle East countries. This study was aimed to
evaluate how the paediatric nurses adhere to the medication
administration policy and also to identify any medication preparation
and administration errors or any risk factors. An observational,
prospective study of medication administration process from when
the nurses preparing patient medication until administration stage
(May to August 2014) was conducted in Saudi Arabia. Twelve
paediatric nurses serving 90 paediatric patients were observed. 456
drug administered doses were evaluated. Adherence rate was variable
in 7 steps out of 16 steps. Patient allergy information, dose
calculation, drug expiry date were the steps in medication
administration with lowest adherence rates. 63 medication
preparation and administration errors were identified with error rate
13.8% of medication administrations. No potentially life-threating
errors were witnessed. Few logistic and administrative factors were
reported. The results showed that the medication administration
policy and procedure need an urgent revision to be more sensible for
nurses in practice. Nurses’ knowledge and skills regarding to the
medication administration process should be improved.