Abstract: A forecasting model for steel demand uncertainty in Thailand is proposed. It consists of trend, autocorrelation, and outliers in a hierarchical Bayesian frame work. The proposed model uses a cumulative Weibull distribution function, latent first-order autocorrelation, and binary selection, to account for trend, time-varying autocorrelation, and outliers, respectively. The Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation. The proposed model is applied to steel demand index data in Thailand. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria are used for model comparison. The study reveals that the proposed model is more appropriate than the exponential smoothing method.
Abstract: There are three approaches to complete Bayesian
Network (BN) model construction: total expert-centred, total datacentred,
and semi data-centred. These three approaches constitute the
basis of the empirical investigation undertaken and reported in this
paper. The objective is to determine, amongst these three
approaches, which is the optimal approach for the construction of a
BN-based model for the performance assessment of students-
laboratory work in a virtual electronic laboratory environment. BN
models were constructed using all three approaches, with respect to
the focus domain, and compared using a set of optimality criteria. In
addition, the impact of the size and source of the training, on the
performance of total data-centred and semi data-centred models was
investigated. The results of the investigation provide additional
insight for BN model constructors and contribute to literature
providing supportive evidence for the conceptual feasibility and
efficiency of structure and parameter learning from data. In addition,
the results highlight other interesting themes.