Abstract: This study1 holds for the formation of international financial crisis and political factors for economic crisis in Turkey, are evaluated in chronological order. The international arena and relevant studies conducted in Turkey work in the literature are assessed. The main purpose of the study is to hold the linkage between the crises and political stability in Turkey in details, and to examine the position of Turkey in this regard. The introduction part follows the literature survey on the models explaining causes and results of the crises, the second part of the study. In the third part, the formations of the world financial crises are studied. The fourth part, financial crisis in Turkey in 1994, 2000, 2001 and 2008 are reviewed and their political reasons are analyzed. In the last part of the study the results and recommendations are held. Political administrations have laid the grounds for an economic crisis in Turkey. In this study, the emergence of an economic crisis in Turkey and the developments after the crisis are chronologically examined and an explanation is offered as to the cause and effect relationship between the political administration and economic equilibrium in the country. Economic crises can be characterized as follows: high prices of consumables, high interest rates, current account deficits, budget deficits, structural defects in government finance, rising inflation and fixed currency applications, rising government debt, declining savings rates and increased dependency on foreign capital stock. Entering into the conditions of crisis during a time when the exchange value of the country-s national currency was rising, speculative finance movements and shrinking of foreign currency reserves happened due to expectations for devaluation and because of foreign investors- resistance to financing national debt, and a financial risk occurs. During the February 2001 crisis and immediately following, devaluation and reduction of value occurred in Turkey-s stock market. While changing over to the system of floating exchange rates in the midst of this crisis, the effects of the crisis on the real economy are discussed in this study. Administered politics include financial reforms, such as the rearrangement of banking systems. These reforms followed with the provision of foreign financial support. There have been winners and losers in the imbalance of income distribution, which has recently become more evident in Turkey-s fragile economy.
Abstract: The aim for this research is to deliberately discuss
how and why the contexts of culture are the main significant factors
which need to be considered when conducting the international
business oversea. As a consequence of understanding these various
factors, the researcher would be able to infer some suggestions to the
international organizations. With this in mind, the results of the
understanding in a national culture environment can support the
organizations to settle its international strategies which may be useful
to develop the national export and import effectiveness. This data
collecting methods will be concentrated upon 5-10 interviews from
the senior members and business officers in the international
company in Thailand by e-mail interview and analyses the individual
manager’s viewpoint. As well as, focus on the questionnaires which
the respondents were selected randomly around 100 samples from
UK and Thailand, together with providing a functional sample size
and comparable to data. The results of the study question the role of
national culture, which contributed to in international business
effectiveness and emphasize the positive and negative aspects, as
well as suggestions to business investors are informed.
Abstract: In recent years, real estate prediction or valuation has
been a topic of discussion in many developed countries. Improper
hype created by investors leads to fluctuating prices of real estate,
affecting many consumers to purchase their own homes. Therefore,
scholars from various countries have conducted research in real estate
valuation and prediction. With the back-propagation neural network
that has been popular in recent years and the orthogonal array in the
Taguchi method, this study aimed to find the optimal parameter
combination at different levels of orthogonal array after the system
presented different parameter combinations, so that the artificial
neural network obtained the most accurate results. The experimental
results also demonstrated that the method presented in the study had a
better result than traditional machine learning. Finally, it also showed
that the model proposed in this study had the optimal predictive effect,
and could significantly reduce the cost of time in simulation operation.
The best predictive results could be found with a fewer number of
experiments more efficiently. Thus users could predict a real estate
transaction price that is not far from the current actual prices.
Abstract: The survival of publicly listed companies largely
depends on their stocks being liquidly traded. This goal can be
achieved when new investors are attracted to invest on companies-
stocks. Among different groups of investors, individual investors are
generally less able to objectively evaluate companies- risks and
returns, and tend to be emotionally biased in their investing
decisions. Therefore their decisions may be formed as a result of
perceived risks and returns, and influenced by companies- images.
This study finds that perceived risk, perceived returns and trust
directly affect individual investors- trading decisions while attitude
towards brand partially mediates the relationships. This finding
suggests that, in courting individual investors, companies still need to
perform financially while building a good image can result in their
stocks being accepted quicker than the stocks of good performing
companies with hidden images.
Abstract: A Decision Support System/Expert System for stock
portfolio selection presented where at first step, both technical and
fundamental data used to estimate technical and fundamental return
and risk (1st phase); Then, the estimated values are aggregated with
the investor preferences (2nd phase) to produce convenient stock
portfolio.
In the 1st phase, there are two expert systems, each of which is
responsible for technical or fundamental estimation. In the technical
expert system, for each stock, twenty seven candidates are identified
and with using rough sets-based clustering method (RC) the effective
variables have been selected. Next, for each stock two fuzzy rulebases
are developed with fuzzy C-Mean method and Takai-Sugeno-
Kang (TSK) approach; one for return estimation and the other for
risk. Thereafter, the parameters of the rule-bases are tuned with backpropagation
method. In parallel, for fundamental expert systems,
fuzzy rule-bases have been identified in the form of “IF-THEN" rules
through brainstorming with the stock market experts and the input
data have been derived from financial statements; as a result two
fuzzy rule-bases have been generated for all the stocks, one for return
and the other for risk.
In the 2nd phase, user preferences represented by four criteria and
are obtained by questionnaire. Using an expert system, four estimated
values of return and risk have been aggregated with the respective
values of user preference. At last, a fuzzy rule base having four rules,
treats these values and produce a ranking score for each stock which
will lead to a satisfactory portfolio for the user.
The stocks of six manufacturing companies and the period of
2003-2006 selected for data gathering.
Abstract: Dietary macro and micro nutrients in their respective proportion and fractions present a practical potential tool to fabricate milk constituents since cells of lactating mammary glands obtain about 80 % of milk synthesis nutrients from blood, reflecting the existence of an isotonic equilibrium between blood and milk. Diverting milk biosynthetic activities through manipulation of nutrients towards producing milk not only keeping in view its significance as natural food but also as food item which prevents or dilutes the adverse effects of some diseases (like cardiovascular problem by saturated milk fat intake) has been area of interest in the last decade. Nutritional modification / supplementation has been reported to enhance conjugated linoleic acid, fatty acid type and concentration, essential fatty acid concentration, vitamin B12& C, Se, Cu, I and Fe which are involved to counter the health threats to human well being. Synchronizing dietary nutrients aimed to modify rumen dynamics towards synthesis of nutrients or their precursors to make their drive towards formulated milk constituents presents a practical option. Formulating dietary constituents to design milk constituents will let the farmers, consumers and investors know about the real potential and profit margins associated with this enterprise. This article briefly recapitulates the ways and means to modify milk constituents keeping an eye on human health and well being issues, which allows milk to serve more than a food item.
Abstract: In July 1, 2007, Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE) on
market observation post system (MOPS) adds a new "Financial
reference database" for investors to do investment reference. This
database as a warning to public offering companies listed on the
public financial information and it original within eight targets. In
this paper, this database provided by the indicators for the application
of company financial crisis early warning model verify that the
database provided by the indicator forecast for the financial crisis,
whether or not companies have a high accuracy rate as opposed to
domestic and foreign scholars have positive results. There is use of
Logistic Regression Model application of the financial early warning
model, in which no joined back-conditions is the first model, joined it
in is the second model, has been taken occurred in the financial crisis
of companies to research samples and then business took place
before the financial crisis point with T-1 and T-2 sample data to do
positive analysis. The results show that this database provided the
debt ratio and net per share for the best forecast variables.
Abstract: This paper is to clarify the relationship of individual investor types, risk tolerance and herding bias. The questionnaire survey investigation is conducted to collect 389 valid and voluntary individual investors and to examine how the risk tolerance plays as a mediator between four types of personality and herding bias. Based on featuring BB&K model and reviewing the prior literature of psychology, a linear structural model are constructed and further used to evaluate the path of herding formation through the analysis of Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). The results showed that more impetuous investors would be prone to herding bias directly, but rather exhibit higher risk tolerance. However, risk tolerance would fully mediate between the level of confidence (i.e., confident or anxious) and herding bias, but not mediate between the method of action (careful or impetuous) for individual investors.
Abstract: Several recent studies have shown that the
transparency of financial reporting have a significant influence on investor-s decisions. Thus, regulation authorities and professional
organizations (IFAC) have emphasized the role of XBRL (eXtensible Business Reporting Language) and interactive data as a means of
promoting transparency and monitoring corporate reporting. In this
context, this paper has as objective the analysis of interactive reporting through XBRL and its use as a support in the process of
taking decisions in corporate governance, namely the potential of interactive reports in XBRL to increase the transparency and
monitoring process of corporate governance.
Abstract: Recognizing behavioral patterns of financial markets
is essential for traders. Japanese candlestick chart is a common tool to
visualize and analyze such patterns in an economic time series. Since
the world was introduced to Japanese candlestick charting, traders
saw how combining this tool with intelligent technical approaches
creates a powerful formula for the savvy investors.
This paper propose a generalization to box counting method of
Grassberger-Procaccia, which is based on computing the correlation
dimension of Japanese candlesticks instead commonly used 'close'
points. The results of this method applied on several foreign
exchange rates vs. IRR (Iranian Rial). Satisfactorily show lower
chaotic dimension of Japanese candlesticks series than regular
Grassberger-Procaccia method applied merely on close points of
these same candles. This means there is some valuable information
inside candlesticks.
Abstract: This study aims to explore the relationship between the
disposition effect and herding behavior of investors trading Taiwanese
information technology stocks. This study differs from previous
literature in two aspects. First, in contrast with the earlier studies that
focused on investigating investors’ herding behavior, this study
explores the possibility that the disposition effect drives investors’
herding behavior. Additionally, it takes an in-depth look at the
interdependence between the disposition effect and herding behavior
of investors, including lead-lag relationship and volatility transmission
effect. Empirical results show that investors trading Taiwan’s
information technology stocks exhibit pronounced herding behavior
and that the disposition effect has a great impact on their herding
behavior.
Abstract: Marketing is an essential issue to the survival of any
real estate company in Turkey. There are some factors which are
constraining the achievements of the marketing and sales strategies in
the Turkey real estate industry. This study aims to identify and
prioritise the most significant constraints to marketing in real estate
sector and new strategies based on those constraints. This study is
based on survey method, where the respondents such as credit
counsellors, real estate investors, consultants, academicians and
marketing representatives in Turkey were asked to rank forty seven
sub-factors according to their levels of impact. The results of Multiattribute
analytical technique indicated that the main subcomponents
having impact on marketing in real estate sector are interest rates, real
estate credit availability, accessibility, company image and consumer
real income, respectively. The identified constraints are expected to
guide the marketing team in a sales-effective way.
Abstract: A new deployment of the multiple criteria decision
making (MCDM) techniques: the Simple Additive Weighting
(SAW), and the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to
Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) for portfolio allocation, is demonstrated in
this paper. Rather than exclusive reference to mean and variance as in
the traditional mean-variance method, the criteria used in this
demonstration are the first four moments of the portfolio distribution.
Each asset is evaluated based on its marginal impacts to portfolio
higher moments that are characterized by trapezoidal fuzzy numbers.
Then centroid-based defuzzification is applied to convert fuzzy
numbers to the crisp numbers by which SAW and TOPSIS can be
deployed. Experimental results suggest the similar efficiency of these
MCDM approaches to selecting dominant assets for an optimal
portfolio under higher moments. The proposed approaches allow
investors flexibly adjust their risk preferences regarding higher
moments via different schemes adapting to various (from
conservative to risky) kinds of investors. The other significant
advantage is that, compared to the mean-variance analysis, the
portfolio weights obtained by SAW and TOPSIS are consistently
well-diversified.
Abstract: This article considers with the influence of selected economic indicators for the development of the Zlin region. Development of the region is mainly influenced by business entities which are located in the region, as well as investors who contribute to the development of regions. For the development of the region it is necessary for skilled workers remain in the region and not to leave these skilled workers. The above-mentioned and other factors are affecting the development of each region.
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to present two different
approaches of financial distress pre-warning models appropriate for
risk supervisors, investors and policy makers. We examine a sample
of the financial institutions and electronic companies of Taiwan
Security Exchange (TSE) market from 2002 through 2008. We
present a binary logistic regression with paned data analysis. With
the pooled binary logistic regression we build a model including
more variables in the regression than with random effects, while the
in-sample and out-sample forecasting performance is higher in
random effects estimation than in pooled regression. On the other
hand we estimate an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System
(ANFIS) with Gaussian and Generalized Bell (Gbell) functions and
we find that ANFIS outperforms significant Logit regressions in both
in-sample and out-of-sample periods, indicating that ANFIS is a
more appropriate tool for financial risk managers and for the
economic policy makers in central banks and national statistical
services.
Abstract: This paper deals with the application of a well-known neural network technique, multilayer back-propagation (BP) neural network, in financial data mining. A modified neural network forecasting model is presented, and an intelligent mining system is developed. The system can forecast the buying and selling signs according to the prediction of future trends to stock market, and provide decision-making for stock investors. The simulation result of seven years to Shanghai Composite Index shows that the return achieved by this mining system is about three times as large as that achieved by the buy and hold strategy, so it is advantageous to apply neural networks to forecast financial time series, the different investors could benefit from it.
Abstract: The use of wind energy for electricity generation is
growing rapidly across the world and in Portugal. However, the
geographical characteristics of the country along with the average
wind regime and with the environmental restrictions imposed to these
projects create limitations to the exploit of the onshore wind
resource. The best onshore wind spots are already committed and the
possibility of offshore wind farms in the Portuguese cost is now
being considered. This paper aims to make a contribution to the
evaluation of offshore wind power projects in Portugal. The technical
restrictions are addressed and the strategic, environmental and
financial interest of the project is analysed from the private company
and public points of view. The results suggest that additional support
schemes are required to ensure private investors interest for these
projects. Assuming an approach of direct substitution of energy
sources for electricity generation, the avoided CO2 equivalent
emissions for an offshore wind power project were quantified. Based
on the conclusions, future research is proposed to address the
environmental and social impacts of these projects.
Abstract: Increase in globalization of capital markets brings the
higher requirements on financial information provided for investors
who look for a highly comparable information. Paper deals with the
advantages and limitations of applying International Financial
Reporting Standards (IFRS) in the Czech Republic and Ukraine. As a
greatest limit for full adoption of IFRS shall be acknowledged the
strong connection of continental accounting to tax system and
enormous high administrative burden for IFRS appliers.
Abstract: The article deals with dividends and their distribution from investors from a theoretical point of view. Some studies try to analyzed the reaction of the market on the dividend announcement and found out the change of dividend policy is associated with abnormal returns around the dividend announcement date. Another researches directly questioned the investors about their dividend preference and beliefs. Investors want the dividend from many reasons (e.g. some of them explain the dividend preference by the existence of transaction cost; investors prefer the dividend today, because there is less risky; the managers have private information about the firm). The most controversial theory of dividend policy was developed by Modigliani and Miller (1961) who demonstrated that in the perfect and complete capital markets the dividend policy is irrelevant and the value of the company is independent of its payout policy. Nevertheless, in the real world the capital markets are imperfect, because of asymmetric information, transaction costs, incomplete contracting possibilities and taxes.
Abstract: Infrastructure investments are important in developing
countries, it will not only help to foster the economic growth of a
nation, but it will also act as a platform in which new forms of
partnership and collaboration can be developed mainly in East Asian
countries. Since the last two decades, many infrastructure projects
had been completed through build-operate-transfer (BOT) type of
procurement. The developments of BOT have attracted participation
of local and foreign private sector investor to secure funding and to
deliver projects on time, within the budget and to the required
specifications. Private sectors are preferred by the government in
East Asia to participate in BOT projects due to lack of public
funding. The finding has resulted that the private sector or promoter
of the BOT projects is exposed to multiple risks which have been
discussed in this paper. Effective risk management methods and
good managerial skills are required in ensuring the success of the
project. The review indicated that mitigation measures should be
employed by the promoter throughout the concession period and
support from the host government is also required in ensuring the
success of the BOT project.