Abstract: The paper investigates downtrend algorithm and
trading strategy based on chart pattern recognition and technical
analysis in futures market. The proposed chart formation is a pattern
with the lowest low in the middle and one higher low on each side.
The contribution of this paper lies in the reinforcement of statements
about the profitability of momentum trend trading strategies.
Practical benefit of the research is a trading algorithm in falling
markets and back-test analysis in futures markets. When based on
daily data, the algorithm has generated positive results, especially
when the market had downtrend period. Downtrend algorithm can be
applied as a hedge strategy against possible sudden market crashes.
The proposed strategy can be interesting for futures traders, hedge
funds or scientific researchers performing technical or algorithmic
market analysis based on momentum trend trading.
Abstract: The paper presents an applied study of a multivariate AR(p) process fitted to daily data from U.S. commodity futures markets with the use of Bayesian statistics. In the first part a detailed description of the methods used is given. In the second part two BVAR models are chosen one with assumption of lognormal, the second with normal distribution of prices conditioned on the parameters. For a comparison two simple benchmark models are chosen that are commonly used in todays Financial Mathematics. The article compares the quality of predictions of all the models, tries to find an adequate rate of forgetting of information and questions the validity of Efficient Market Hypothesis in the semi-strong form.