Abstract: Climate change confronts the built environment with
many new challenges in the form of more severe and frequent hydrometeorological
events. A series of strategies is proposed whereby the
various aspects of buildings and their sites can be made more resilient
to the effects of such events.
Abstract: The North-eastern part of India, which receives
heavier rainfall than other parts of the subcontinent, is of great
concern now-a-days with regard to climate change. High intensity
rainfall for short duration and longer dry spell, occurring due to
impact of climate change, affects river morphology too. In the present
study, an attempt is made to delineate the North-eastern region of
India into some homogeneous clusters based on the Fuzzy Clustering
concept and to compare the resulting clusters obtained by using
conventional methods and nonconventional methods of clustering.
The concept of clustering is adapted in view of the fact that, impact
of climate change can be studied in a homogeneous region without
much variation, which can be helpful in studies related to water
resources planning and management. 10 IMD (Indian Meteorological
Department) stations, situated in various regions of the North-east,
have been selected for making the clusters. The results of the Fuzzy
C-Means (FCM) analysis show different clustering patterns for
different conditions. From the analysis and comparison it can be
concluded that nonconventional method of using GCM data is
somehow giving better results than the others. However, further
analysis can be done by taking daily data instead of monthly means to
reduce the effect of standardization.
Abstract: Recent perceived climate variability raises concerns
with unprecedented hydrological phenomena and extremes.
Distribution and circulation of the waters of the Earth become
increasingly difficult to determine because of additional uncertainty
related to anthropogenic emissions. The world wide observed
changes in the large-scale hydrological cycle have been related to an
increase in the observed temperature over several decades. Although
the effect of change in climate on hydrology provides a general
picture of possible hydrological global change, new tools and
frameworks for modelling hydrological series with nonstationary
characteristics at finer scales, are required for assessing climate
change impacts. Of the downscaling techniques, dynamic
downscaling is usually based on the use of Regional Climate Models
(RCMs), which generate finer resolution output based on atmospheric
physics over a region using General Circulation Model (GCM) fields
as boundary conditions. However, RCMs are not expected to capture
the observed spatial precipitation extremes at a fine cell scale or at a
basin scale. Statistical downscaling derives a statistical or empirical
relationship between the variables simulated by the GCMs, called
predictors, and station-scale hydrologic variables, called predictands.
The main focus of the paper is on the need for using statistical
downscaling techniques for projection of local hydrometeorological
variables under climate change scenarios. The projections can be then
served as a means of input source to various hydrologic models to
obtain streamflow, evapotranspiration, soil moisture and other
hydrological variables of interest.
Abstract: We installed solar panels and digital meteorological equipments whose electrical power is supplied using PV on July 13, 2011. Then, the relationship between the electric power generation and the irradiation, air temperature, and wind velocity was investigated on a roof at a university. The electrical power generation, irradiation, air temperature, and wind velocity were monitored over two years. By analyzing the measured meteorological data and electric power generation data using PTC, we calculated the size of the solar panel that is most suitable for this system. We also calculated the wasted power generation using PTC with the measured meteorological data obtained in this study. In conclusion, to reduce the "wasted power generation", a smaller-size solar panel is required for stable operation.
Abstract: The research aims to approximate the amount of daily rainfall by using a pixel value data approach. The daily rainfall maps from the Thailand Meteorological Department in period of time from January to December 2013 were the data used in this study. The results showed that this approach can approximate the amount of daily rainfall with RMSE=3.343.
Abstract: Kandy district in Sri Lanka, has small scale and rain-fed paddy farming, and highly vulnerable to climate change. In this study, the status of climate change was assessed using meteorological data and compared with the perceptions of paddy farming community. Factors affecting the adaptation to the climate smart farming were also assessed.
Meteorological data for 33 years were collected and the changes over time compared with the perceptions of farmers. The temperature, rainfall and number of rainy days have increased in both locations. The onset of rains also has shifted. The perceptions of the majority of the farmers were in line with the actual changes. The knowledge and attitudes about the causes of climate change and adaptation were medium and related to level of adoption. Formulating effective communication strategies, and a collaborative approach involving state, private sector, civil society to make Sri Lankan agriculture ‘climate-smart’ is urgently needed.
Abstract: This paper presents long term wind data analysis in terms of annual and diurnal variations at different areas of Libya. The data of the wind speed and direction are taken each ten minutes for a period, at least two years, are used in the analysis. ‘WindPRO’ software and Excel workbook were used for the wind statistics and energy calculations. As for Darnah, average speeds are 10m, 20m and 40m and 6.57 m/s, 7.18 m/s, and 8.09 m/s, respectively. Highest wind speeds are observed at SSW, followed by S, WNW and NW sectors. Lowest wind speeds are observed between N and E sectors. Most frequent wind directions are NW and NNW. Hence, wind turbines can be installed against these directions. The most powerful sector is NW (31.3% of total expected wind energy), followed by 17.9% SSW, 11.5% NNW and 8.2% WNW
In Excel workbook, an estimation of annual energy yield at position of Derna, Al-Maqrun, Tarhuna and Al-Asaaba meteorological mast has been done, considering a generic wind turbine of 1.65 MW. (mtORRES, TWT 82-1.65MW) in position of meteorological mast. Three other turbines have been tested and a reduction of 18% over the net AEP. At 80m, the estimation of energy yield for Derna, Al- Maqrun, Tarhuna and Asaaba is 6.78 GWh or 3390 equivalent hours, 5.80 GWh or 2900 equivalent hours, 4.91 GWh or 2454 equivalent hours and 5.08 GWh or 2541 equivalent hours respectively. It seems a fair value in the context of a possible development of a wind energy project in the areas, considering a value of 2400 equivalent hours as an approximate limit to consider a wind warm economically profitable. Furthermore, an estimation of annual energy yield at positions of Misalatha, Azizyah and Goterria meteorological mast has been done, considering a generic wind turbine of 2 MW. We found that, at 80 m the estimation of energy yield is 3.12 GWh or 1557 equivalent hours, 4.47 GWh or 2235 equivalent hours and 4.07GWh or 2033 respectively.
It seems a very poor value in the context of possible development of a wind energy project in the areas, considering a value of 2400 equivalent hours as an approximate limit to consider a wind warm economically profitable. Anyway, more data and a detailed wind farm study would be necessary to draw conclusions.
Abstract: Several meteorological parameters were used for the
prediction of monthly average daily global solar radiation on
horizontal using recurrent neural networks (RNNs). Climatological
data and measures, mainly air temperature, humidity, sunshine
duration, and wind speed between 1995 and 2007 were used to design
and validate a feed forward and recurrent neural network based
prediction systems. In this paper we present our reference system
based on a feed-forward multilayer perceptron (MLP) as well as the
proposed approach based on an RNN model. The obtained results
were promising and comparable to those obtained by other existing
empirical and neural models. The experimental results showed the
advantage of RNNs over simple MLPs when we deal with time series
solar radiation predictions based on daily climatological data.
Abstract: The objective of this paper is a contribution to a study of power supply by solar energy system called a common Ferkène north of Algerian desert in the semi-arid area. The optimal exploitation of the system, goes through stages of study and essential design, the choice of the model of the photovoltaic panel, the study of behavior with all the parameters involved in simulation before fixing the trajectory tracking the maximum point the power to extract (MPPT), form the essential platform to shape the design of the solar system set up to supply the town Ferkène without considering the grid. The identification of the common Ferkène by the collection of geographical, meteorological, demographic and electrical provides a basis uniform and important data. The results reflect a valid fictive model for any attempt to study and design a solar system to supply an arid or semi-arid zone by electrical energy from photovoltaic panels.
Abstract: Extreme rainfall frequency analysis for Meteorological Sub-Division 4 of India was analyzed using L-moments approach. Serial Correlation and Mann Kendall tests were conducted for checking serially independent and stationarity of the observations. The discordancy measure for the sites was conducted to detect the discordant sites. The regional homogeneity was tested by comparing with 500 generated homogeneous regions using a 4 parameter Kappa distribution. The best fit distribution was selected based on ZDIST statistics and L-moments ratio diagram from the five extreme value distributions GPD, GLO, GEV, P3 and LP3. The LN3 distribution was selected and regional rainfall frequency relationship was established using index-rainfall procedure. A regional mean rainfall relationship was developed using multiple linear regression with latitude and longitude of the sites as variables.
Abstract: Drought is universally acknowledged as a phenomenon associated with scarcity of water. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) expresses the actual rainfall as standardized departure from rainfall probability distribution function. In this study severity and spatial pattern of meteorological drought was analyzed in the Puruliya District, West Bengal, India using multi-temporal SPI. Daily gridded data for the period 1971-2005 from 4 rainfall stations surrounding the study area were collected from IMD, Pune, and used in the analysis. Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to generate drought severity maps for the different time scales and months of the year. Temporal SPI graphs show that the maximum SPI value (extreme drought) occurs in station 3 in the year 1993. Mild and moderate droughts occur in the central portion of the study area. Severe and extreme droughts were mostly found in the northeast, northwest and the southwest part of the region.
Abstract: This research work examines the effect of variations of metrological parameters on the tropospheric radio refractivity during dry and raining seasons for Akure in 2013. The daily averages of radio refractivity during dry (January) and raining (August) seasons were calculated from the data obtained from the Nigeria Metrological Agency (NIMET). The data that was used for the computation of radio refractivity is a daily interval of the variations of metrological parameters for each day in the troposphere for Akure. Consequently, the daily averages of radio refractivity during raining season (August) were greater than the results in dry season (January) as a result of the variations in meteorological parameters such as temperature, humidity and atmospheric pressure in the lower troposphere.
Abstract: This paper discusses aspects of outages in the electric transmission network in the Kosovo Power System caused by the atmospheric discharges.
Frequency and location of the atmospheric discharges in Kosovo territory will be provided by a lightning location system ALARM (Automated Lightning Alert and Risk Management) and from the data from the Meteorological Department in Prishtina International Airport. These data will be used to make comparisons with the actual outages registered in the Kosovo Power System from the Kosovo Transmission, systems and market operator (KOSTT) during a specific time period.
The lines with the worst performance determined, regarding the atmospheric discharges, will be choose for further discussions in terms of over voltages caused by the direct or indirect lightning strokes.
Recommendations for protection in terms of insulator coordination and surge arresters will be given at the end and in this stage dynamic simulation will take part.
Abstract: A method is proposed to extract faithful representative patterns from data set of observations when they are suffering from non-negligible fluctuations. Supposing time interval between measurements to be extremely small compared to observation time, it consists in defining first a subset of intermediate time intervals characterizing coherent behavior. Data projection on these intervals gives a set of curves out of which an ideally “perfect” one is constructed by taking the sup limit of them. Then comparison with average real curve in corresponding interval gives an efficiency parameter expressing the degradation consecutive to fluctuation effect. The method is applied to sunlight data collected in a specific place, where ideal sunlight is the one resulting from direct exposure at location latitude over the year, and efficiency is resulting from action of meteorological parameters, mainly cloudiness, at different periods of the year. The extracted information already gives interesting element of decision, before being used for analysis of plant control.
Abstract: The prediction of meteorological parameters at a
meteorological station is an interesting and open problem. A firstorder
linear dynamic model GM(1,1) is the main component of the
grey system theory. The grey model requires only a few previous data
points in order to make a real-time forecast. In this paper, we
consider the daily average ambient temperature as a time series and
the grey model GM(1,1) applied to local prediction (short-term
prediction) of the temperature. In the same case study we use a fuzzy
predictive model for global prediction. We conclude the paper with a
comparison between local and global prediction schemes.
Abstract: Exposure to ambient air pollution has been linked to a
number of health outcomes, starting from modest transient changes in
the respiratory tract and impaired pulmonary function, continuing to
restrict activity/reduce performance and to the increase emergency
rooms visits, hospital admissions or mortality. The increase of
allergenic symptoms has been associated with air contaminants such
as ozone, particulate matter, fungal spores and pollen.
Considering the potential relevance of crossed effects of nonbiological
pollutants and airborne pollens and fungal spores on
allergy worsening, the aim of this work was to evaluate the influence
of non-biological pollutants (O3 and PM10) and meteorological
parameters on the concentrations of pollen and fungal spores using
multiple linear regressions.
The data considered in this study were collected in Oporto which
is the second largest Portuguese city, located in the North. Daily
mean of O3, PM10, pollen and fungal spore concentrations,
temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, wind velocity, pollen
and fungal spore concentrations, for 2003, 2004 and 2005 were
considered. Results showed that the 90th percentile of the adjusted
coefficient of determination, P90 (R2aj), of the multiple regressions
varied from 0.613 to 0.916 for pollen and from 0.275 to 0.512 for
fungal spores. O3 and PM10 showed to have some influence on the
biological pollutants. Among the meteorological parameters
analysed, temperature was the one that most influenced the pollen
and fungal spores airborne concentrations. Relative humidity also
showed to have some influence on the fungal spore dispersion.
Nevertheless, the models for each pollen and fungal spore were
different depending on the analysed period, which means that the
correlations identified as statistically significant can not be, even so,
consistent enough.
Abstract: Higher capacities of power plants together with
increased awareness on environmental considerations have led to
taller height of stacks. It is seen that strong wind can result in falling
of stacks. So, aerodynamic consideration of stacks is very important
in order to save the falling of stacks. One stack is not enough in
industries and power sectors and two or three stacks are required for
proper operation of the unit. It is very important to arrange the stacks
in proper way to resist their downfall. The present experimental
study concentrates on the mutual effect of three nearby stacks on
each other at three different arrangements, viz. linear, side-by-side
and triangular. The experiments find out the directions of resultant
forces acting on the stacks in different configurations so that proper
arrangement of supports can be made with respect to the wind
directionality obtained from local meteorological data. One can also
easily ascertain which stack is more vulnerable to wind in
comparison to the others for a particular configuration. Thus, this
study is important in studying the effect of wind force on three stacks
in different arrangements and is very helpful in placing the supports
in proper places in order to avoid failing of stack-like structures due
to wind.
Abstract: In the end of the day, meteorological data and environmental data becomes widely used such as plant varieties selection system. Variety plant selection for planted area is of almost importance for all crops, including varieties of sugarcane. Since sugarcane have many varieties. Variety plant non selection for planting may not be adapted to the climate or soil conditions for planted area. Poor growth, bloom drop, poor fruit, and low price are to be from varieties which were not recommended for those planted area. This paper presents plant varieties selection system for planted areas in Thailand from meteorological data and environmental data by the use of decision tree techniques. With this software developed as an environmental data analysis tool, it can analyze resulting easier and faster. Our software is a front end of WEKA that provides fundamental data mining functions such as classify, clustering, and analysis functions. It also supports pre-processing, analysis, and decision tree output with exporting result. After that, our software can export and display data result to Google maps API in order to display result and plot plant icons effectively.
Abstract: This study investigated the relationship between urban
and rural ozone concentrations and quantified the extent to which
ambient rural conditions and the concentrations of other pollutants
can be used to predict urban ozone concentrations. The study
describes the variations of ozone in weekday and weekends as well as
the daily maximum recorded at selected monitoring stations. The
results showed that Putrajaya station had the highest concentrations
of O3 on weekend due the titration of NO during the weekday.
Additionally, Jerantut had the lowest average concentration with a
reading value high on Wednesdays. The comparisons of average and
maximum concentrations of ozone for the three stations showed that
the strongest significant correlation is recorded in Jerantut station
with the value R2= 0.769. Ozone concentrations originating from a
neighbouring urban site form a better predictor to the urban ozone
concentrations than widespread rural ozone at some levels of
temporal averaging. It is found that in urban and rural of Malaysian
peninsular, the concentration of ozone depends on the concentration
of NOx and seasonal meteorological factors. The HYSPLIT Model
(the northeast monsoon) showed that the wind direction can also
influence the concentration of ozone in the atmosphere in the studied
areas.
Abstract: This article is dedicated to development of
mathematical models for determining the dynamics of
concentration of hazardous substances in urban turbulent
atmosphere. Development of the mathematical models implied
taking into account the time-space variability of the fields of
meteorological items and such turbulent atmosphere data as vortex
nature, nonlinear nature, dissipativity and diffusivity. Knowing the
turbulent airflow velocity is not assumed when developing the
model. However, a simplified model implies that the turbulent and
molecular diffusion ratio is a piecewise constant function that
changes depending on vertical distance from the earth surface.
Thereby an important assumption of vertical stratification of urban
air due to atmospheric accumulation of hazardous substances
emitted by motor vehicles is introduced into the mathematical
model. The suggested simplified non-linear mathematical model of
determining the sought exhaust concentration at a priori unknown
turbulent flow velocity through non-degenerate transformation is
reduced to the model which is subsequently solved analytically.