Designing Early Warning System: Prediction Accuracy of Currency Crisis by Using k-Nearest Neighbour Method

Developing a stable early warning system (EWS) model that is capable to give an accurate prediction is a challenging task. This paper introduces k-nearest neighbour (k-NN) method which never been applied in predicting currency crisis before with the aim of increasing the prediction accuracy. The proposed k-NN performance depends on the choice of a distance that is used where in our analysis; we take the Euclidean distance and the Manhattan as a consideration. For the comparison, we employ three other methods which are logistic regression analysis (logit), back-propagation neural network (NN) and sequential minimal optimization (SMO). The analysis using datasets from 8 countries and 13 macro-economic indicators for each country shows that the proposed k-NN method with k = 4 and Manhattan distance performs better than the other methods.

Numerical Analysis on Rapid Decompression in Conventional Dry Gases using One- Dimensional Mathematical Modeling

The paper presents a one-dimensional transient mathematical model of compressible thermal multi-component gas mixture flows in pipes. The set of the mass, momentum and enthalpy conservation equations for gas phase is solved. Thermo-physical properties of multi-component gas mixture are calculated by solving the Equation of State (EOS) model. The Soave-Redlich-Kwong (SRK-EOS) model is chosen. Gas mixture viscosity is calculated on the basis of the Lee-Gonzales-Eakin (LGE) correlation. Numerical analysis on rapid decompression in conventional dry gases is performed by using the proposed mathematical model. The model is validated on measured values of the decompression wave speed in dry natural gas mixtures. All predictions show excellent agreement with the experimental data at high and low pressure. The presented model predicts the decompression in dry natural gas mixtures much better than GASDECOM and OLGA codes, which are the most frequently-used codes in oil and gas pipeline transport service.

Creation of Economic and Social Value by Social Entrepreneurship for Sustainable Development

The ever growing sentiment of environmentalism across the globe has made many people think on the green lines. But most of such ideas halt short of implementation because of the short term economic viability issues with the concept of going green. In this paper we have tried to amalgamate the green concept with social entrepreneurship for solving a variety of issues faced by the society today. In addition the paper also tries to ensure that the short term economic viability does not act as a deterrent. The paper comes up three sustainable models of social entrepreneurship which tackle a wide assortment of issues such as nutrition problem, land problems, pollution problems and employment problems. The models described fall under the following heads: - Spirulina cultivation: The model addresses nutrition, land and employment issues. It deals with cultivation of a blue green alga called Spirulina which can be used as a very nutritious food. Also, the implementation of this model would bring forth employment to the poor people of the area. - Biocomposites: The model comes up with various avenues in which biocomposites can be used in an economically sustainable manner. This model deals with the environmental concerns and addresses the depletion of natural resources. - Packaging material from empty fruit bunches (EFB) of oil palm: This one deals with air and land pollution. It is intended to be a substitute for packaging materials made from Styrofoam and plastics which are non-biodegradable. It takes care of the biodegradability and land pollution issues. It also reduces air pollution as the empty fruit bunches are not incinerated. All the three models are sustainable and do not deplete the natural resources any further. This paper explains each of the models in detail and deals with the operational/manufacturing procedures and cost analysis while also throwing light on the benefits derived and sustainability aspects.

Heat transfer Characteristics of Fin-and-Tube heat Exchanger under Condensing Conditions

In the present work an investigation of the effects of the air frontal velocity, relative humidity and dry air temperature on the heat transfer characteristics of plain finned tube evaporator has been conducted. Using an appropriate correlation for the air side heat transfer coefficient the temperature distribution along the fin surface was calculated using a dimensionless temperature distribution. For a constant relative humidity and bulb temperature, it is found that the temperature distribution decreases with increasing air frontal velocity. Apparently, it is attributed to the condensate water film flowing over the fin surface. When dry air temperature and face velocity are being kept constant, the temperature distribution decreases with the increase of inlet relative humidity. An increase in the inlet relative humidity is accompanied by a higher amount of moisture on the fin surface. This results in a higher amount of latent heat transfer which involves higher fin surface temperature. For the influence of dry air temperature, the results here show an increase in the dimensionless temperature parameter with a decrease in bulb temperature. Increasing bulb temperature leads to higher amount of sensible and latent heat transfer when other conditions remain constant.

Direct Torque Control - DTC of Induction Motor Used for Piloting a Centrifugal Pump Supplied by a Photovoltaic Generator

In this paper we propose the study of a centrifugal pump control system driven by a three-phase induction motor, which is supplied by a PhotoVoltaic PV generator. The system includes solar panel, a DC / DC converter equipped with its MPPT control, a voltage inverter to three-phase Pulse Width Modulation - PWM and a centrifugal pump driven by a three phase induction motor. In order to control the flow of the centrifugal pump, a Direct Torque Control - DTC of the induction machine is used. To illustrate the performances of the control, simulation results are carried out using Matlab/Simulink.

Performance Evaluation of Purely Mechanical Wireless In-Mould Sensor for Injection Moulding

In this paper, the influencing parameters of a novel purely mechanical wireless in-mould injection moulding sensor were investigated. The sensor is capable of detecting the melt front at predefined locations inside the mould. The sensor comprises a movable pin which acts as the sensor element generating structure-borne sound triggered by the passing melt front. Due to the sensor design, melt pressure is the driving force. For pressure level measurement during pin movement a pressure transducer located at the same position as the movable pin. By deriving a mathematical model for the mechanical movement, dominant process parameters could be investigated towards their impact on the melt front detection characteristic. It was found that the sensor is not affected by the investigated parameters enabling it for reliable melt front detection. In addition, it could be proved that the novel sensor is in comparable range to conventional melt front detection sensors.

Bio-inspired Audio Content-Based Retrieval Framework (B-ACRF)

Content-based music retrieval generally involves analyzing, searching and retrieving music based on low or high level features of a song which normally used to represent artists, songs or music genre. Identifying them would normally involve feature extraction and classification tasks. Theoretically the greater features analyzed, the better the classification accuracy can be achieved but with longer execution time. Technique to select significant features is important as it will reduce dimensions of feature used in classification and contributes to the accuracy. Artificial Immune System (AIS) approach will be investigated and applied in the classification task. Bio-inspired audio content-based retrieval framework (B-ACRF) is proposed at the end of this paper where it embraces issues that need further consideration in music retrieval performances.

On Submaximality in Intuitionistic Topological Spaces

In this study, a minimal submaximal element of LIT(X) (the lattice of all intuitionistic topologies for X, ordered by inclusion) is determined. Afterwards, a new contractive property, intuitionistic mega-connectedness, is defined. We show that the submaximality and mega-connectedness are not complementary intuitionistic topological invariants by identifying those members of LIT(X) which are intuitionistic mega-connected.

A New Damage Identification Strategy for SHM Based On FBGs and Bayesian Model Updating Method

One of the difficulties of the vibration-based damage identification methods is the nonuniqueness of the results of damage identification. The different damage locations and severity may cause the identical response signal, which is even more severe for detection of the multiple damage. This paper proposes a new strategy for damage detection to avoid this nonuniqueness. This strategy firstly determines the approximates damage area based on the statistical pattern recognition method using the dynamic strain signal measured by the distributed fiber Bragg grating, and then accurately evaluates the damage information based on the Bayesian model updating method using the experimental modal data. The stochastic simulation method is then used to compute the high-dimensional integral in the Bayesian problem. Finally, an experiment of the plate structure, simulating one part of mechanical structure, is used to verify the effectiveness of this approach.

Some Physical and Mechanical Properties of Russian Olive Fruit

Physical and mechanical properties of Russian olive fruits were measured at moisture content of 14.43% w.b. The results revealed that the mean length, width and thickness of Russian olive fruits were 20.72, 15.73 and 14.69mm, respectively. Mean mass and volume of Russian olive fruits were measured as 1.45 g and 2.55 cm3, respectively. The sphericity, aspect ratio and surface area were calculated as 0.81, 0.72 and 8.96 cm2, respectively, while arithmetic mean diameter, geometric mean diameter and equivalent diameter of Russian olive fruits were 17.05, 16.83 and 16.84 mm, respectively. Whole fruit density, bulk density and porosity of jujube fruits were measured and found to be 1.01 g/cm3, 0.29 g/cm3 and 69.5%, respectively. The values of static coefficient of friction on three surfaces of glass, galvanized iron and plywood were 0.35, 0.36 and 0.43, respectively. The skin color (L*, a*, b*) varied from 9.92 to 16.08; 2.04 to 3.91 and 1.12 to 3.83, respectively. The values of rupture force, deformation, energy absorbed and hardness were found to be between 12.14-16.85 N, 2.16-4.25 mm, 3.42-6.99 N mm and 17.1-23.85 N/mm.

Fuzzy Logic Based Improved Range Free Localization for Wireless Sensor Networks

Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) are used to monitor/observe vast inaccessible regions through deployment of large number of sensor nodes in the sensing area. For majority of WSN applications, the collected data needs to be combined with geographic information of its origin to make it useful for the user; information received from remote Sensor Nodes (SNs) that are several hops away from base station/sink is meaningless without knowledge of its source. In addition to this, location information of SNs can also be used to propose/develop new network protocols for WSNs to improve their energy efficiency and lifetime. In this paper, range free localization protocols for WSNs have been proposed. The proposed protocols are based on weighted centroid localization technique, where the edge weights of SNs are decided by utilizing fuzzy logic inference for received signal strength and link quality between the nodes. The fuzzification is carried out using (i) Mamdani, (ii) Sugeno, and (iii) Combined Mamdani Sugeno fuzzy logic inference. Simulation results demonstrate that proposed protocols provide better accuracy in node localization compared to conventional centroid based localization protocols despite presence of unintentional radio frequency interference from radio frequency (RF) sources operating in same frequency band.

Modeling of Pulping of Sugar Maple Using Advanced Neural Network Learning

This paper reports work done to improve the modeling of complex processes when only small experimental data sets are available. Neural networks are used to capture the nonlinear underlying phenomena contained in the data set and to partly eliminate the burden of having to specify completely the structure of the model. Two different types of neural networks were used for the application of Pulping of Sugar Maple problem. A three layer feed forward neural networks, using the Preconditioned Conjugate Gradient (PCG) methods were used in this investigation. Preconditioning is a method to improve convergence by lowering the condition number and increasing the eigenvalues clustering. The idea is to solve the modified problem where M is a positive-definite preconditioner that is closely related to A. We mainly focused on Preconditioned Conjugate Gradient- based training methods which originated from optimization theory, namely Preconditioned Conjugate Gradient with Fletcher-Reeves Update (PCGF), Preconditioned Conjugate Gradient with Polak-Ribiere Update (PCGP) and Preconditioned Conjugate Gradient with Powell-Beale Restarts (PCGB). The behavior of the PCG methods in the simulations proved to be robust against phenomenon such as oscillations due to large step size.

Development of Circulating Support Environment of Multilingual Medical Communication using Parallel Texts for Foreign Patients

The need for multilingual communication in Japan has increased due to an increase in the number of foreigners in the country. When people communicate in their nonnative language, the differences in language prevent mutual understanding among the communicating individuals. In the medical field, communication between the hospital staff and patients is a serious problem. Currently, medical translators accompany patients to medical care facilities, and the demand for medical translators is increasing. However, medical translators cannot necessarily provide support, especially in cases in which round-the-clock support is required or in case of emergencies. The medical field has high expectations from information technology. Hence, a system that supports accurate multilingual communication is required. Despite recent advances in machine translation technology, it is very difficult to obtain highly accurate translations. We have developed a support system called M3 for multilingual medical reception. M3 provides support functions that aid foreign patients in the following respects: conversation, questionnaires, reception procedures, and hospital navigation; it also has a Q&A function. Users can operate M3 using a touch screen and receive text-based support. In addition, M3 uses accurate translation tools called parallel texts to facilitate reliable communication through conversations between the hospital staff and the patients. However, if there is no parallel text that expresses what users want to communicate, the users cannot communicate. In this study, we have developed a circulating support environment for multilingual medical communication using parallel texts. The proposed environment can circulate necessary parallel texts through the following procedure: (1) a user provides feedback about the necessary parallel texts, following which (2) these parallel texts are created and evaluated.

Delay Analysis of Sampled-Data Systems in Hard RTOS

In this paper, we have presented the effect of varying time-delays on performance and stability in the single-channel multirate sampled-data system in hard real-time (RT-Linux) environment. The sampling task require response time that might exceed the capacity of RT-Linux. So a straight implementation with RT-Linux is not feasible, because of the latency of the systems and hence, sampling period should be less to handle this task. The best sampling rate is chosen for the sampled-data system, which is the slowest rate meets all performance requirements. RT-Linux is consistent with its specifications and the resolution of the real-time is considered 0.01 seconds to achieve an efficient result. The test results of our laboratory experiment shows that the multi-rate control technique in hard real-time operating system (RTOS) can improve the stability problem caused by the random access delays and asynchronization.

Data Mining for Cancer Management in Egypt Case Study: Childhood Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia

Data Mining aims at discovering knowledge out of data and presenting it in a form that is easily comprehensible to humans. One of the useful applications in Egypt is the Cancer management, especially the management of Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia or ALL, which is the most common type of cancer in children. This paper discusses the process of designing a prototype that can help in the management of childhood ALL, which has a great significance in the health care field. Besides, it has a social impact on decreasing the rate of infection in children in Egypt. It also provides valubale information about the distribution and segmentation of ALL in Egypt, which may be linked to the possible risk factors. Undirected Knowledge Discovery is used since, in the case of this research project, there is no target field as the data provided is mainly subjective. This is done in order to quantify the subjective variables. Therefore, the computer will be asked to identify significant patterns in the provided medical data about ALL. This may be achieved through collecting the data necessary for the system, determimng the data mining technique to be used for the system, and choosing the most suitable implementation tool for the domain. The research makes use of a data mining tool, Clementine, so as to apply Decision Trees technique. We feed it with data extracted from real-life cases taken from specialized Cancer Institutes. Relevant medical cases details such as patient medical history and diagnosis are analyzed, classified, and clustered in order to improve the disease management.

Stochastic Scheduling to Minimize Expected Lateness in Multiple Identical Machines

There are many real world problems in which parameters like the arrival time of new jobs, failure of resources, and completion time of jobs change continuously. This paper tackles the problem of scheduling jobs with random due dates on multiple identical machines in a stochastic environment. First to assign jobs to different machine centers LPT scheduling methods have been used, after that the particular sequence of jobs to be processed on the machine have been found using simple stochastic techniques. The performance parameter under consideration has been the maximum lateness concerning the stochastic due dates which are independent and exponentially distributed. At the end a relevant problem has been solved using the techniques in the paper..

Small Wind Turbine Hybrid System for Remote Application: Egyptian Case Study

The objective of this research is to study the technical and economic performance of wind/diesel/battery (W/D/B) system supplying a remote small gathering of six families using HOMER software package. The electrical energy is to cater for the basic needs for which the daily load pattern is estimated. Net Present Cost (NPC) and Cost of Energy (COE) are used as economic criteria, while the  measure of performance is % of power shortage. Technical and economic parameters are defined to estimate the feasibility of the system under study. Optimum system configurations are estimated for two sites. Using HOMER software, the simulation results showed that W/D/B systems are economical for the assumed community sites as the price of generated electricity is about 0.308 $/kWh, without taking external benefits into considerations. W/D/B systems are more economical than W/B or diesel alone systems, as the COE is 0.86 $/kWh for W/B and 0.357 $/kWh for diesel alone.

Effects of Polymers and Alkaline on Recovery Improvement from Fractured Models

In this work, several ASP solutions were flooded into fractured models initially saturated with heavy oil at a constant flow rate and different geometrical characteristics of fracture. The ASP solutions are constituted from 2 polymers i.e. a synthetic polymer, hydrolyzed polyacrylamide as well as a biopolymer, a surfactant and 2types of alkaline. The results showed that using synthetic hydrolyzed polyacrylamide polymer increases ultimate oil recovery; however, type of alkaline does not play a significant rule on oil recovery. In addition, position of the injection well respect to the fracture system has remarkable effects on ASP flooding. For instance increasing angle of fractures with mean flow direction causes more oil recovery and delays breakthrough time. This work can be accounted as a comprehensive survey on ASP flooding which considers most of effective factors in this chemical EOR method.

Basic Tendency Model in Complete Factor Synergetics of Complex Systems

The deviation between the target state variable and the practical state variable should be used to form the state tending factor of complex systems, which can reflect the process for the complex system to tend rationalization. Relating to the system of basic equations of complete factor synergetics consisting of twenty nonlinear stochastic differential equations, the two new models are considered to set, which should be called respectively the rationalizing tendency model and the non- rationalizing tendency model. Therefore we can extend the theory of programming with the objective function & constraint condition suitable only for the realm of man-s activities into the new analysis with the tendency function & constraint condition suitable for all the field of complex system.

Performance Evaluation of Improved Ball End Magnetorheological Finishing Process

A novel nanofinishing process using improved ball end magnetorheological (MR) finishing tool was developed for finishing of flat as well as 3D surfaces of ferromagnetic and non ferromagnetic workpieces. In this process a magnetically controlled ball end of smart MR polishing fluid is generated at the tip surface of the tool which is used as a finishing medium and it is guided to follow the surface to be finished through computer controlled 3-axes motion controller. The experiments were performed on ferromagnetic workpiece surface in the developed MR finishing setup to study the effect of finishing time on final surface roughness. The performance of present finishing process on final finished surface roughness was studied. The surface morphology was observed under scanning electron microscopy and atomic force microscope. The final surface finish was obtained as low as 19.7 nm from the initial surface roughness of 142.9 nm. The outcome of newly developed finishing process can be found useful in its applications in aerospace, automotive, dies and molds manufacturing industries, semiconductor and optics machining etc.