Scenario Analysis of Indonesia's Energy Security by using a System-Dynamics Approach

Due to rapid economic growth, Indonesia's energy needs is rapidly increasing. Indonesia-s primary energy consumption has doubled in 2007 compared to 2003. Indonesia's status change from oil net-exporter to oil net-importer country recently has increased Indonesia's concern over energy security. Due to this, oil import becomes center of attention in the dynamics of Indonesia's energy security. Conventional studies addressing Indonesia's energy security have focused on energy production sector. This study explores Indonesia-s energy security considering energy import sector by modeling and simulating Indonesia-s energy-related policies using system dynamics. Simulation result of Indonesia's energy security in 2020 in Business-As-Usual scenario shows that in term of supply demand ratio, energy security will be very high, but also it poses high dependence on energy import. The Alternative scenario result shows lower energy security in term of supply demand ratio and much lower dependence on energy import. It is also found that the Alternative scenario produce lower GDP growth.

Study of Environmental Effects on Sunflower Oil Percent based on Graphical Method

Biplot can be used to evaluate cultivars for their oil percent potential and stability and to evaluate trial sites for their discriminating ability and representativeness. Multi-environmental trial (MET) data for oil percent of 10 open pollinating sunflower cultivars were analyzed to investigate the genotype-environment interactions. The genotypes were evaluated in four locations with different climatic conditions in Iran in 2010. In each location, a Randomized Complete Block design with four replications was used. According to both mean and stability, Zaria, Master and R453, had highest performances among all cultivars. The graphical analysis identified best cultivar for each environment. Cultivars Berezans and Record performed best in Khoy and Islamabad. Zaria and R453 were the best genotypes in Sari and Karaj followed by Master and Favorit. The GGE bi-plot indicated two mega-environments, group one contained Karaj, Khoy and Islamabad and the second group contained Sari. The best discriminating location was Karaj followed with Khoy, Islamabad and Sari. The best representative genotypes were Zaria, R453, Master and Favorit. Ranking of ten cultivars based their oil percent was as Zaria > R453 ≈ Master ≈ Favorit > Record ≈ Berezans > Sor > Lakumka > Bulg3 > Bulg5.

Cubic Splines and Fourier Series Approach to Study Temperature Variation in Dermal Layers of Elliptical Shaped Human Limbs

An attempt has been made to develop a seminumerical model to study temperature variations in dermal layers of human limbs. The model has been developed for two dimensional steady state case. The human limb has been assumed to have elliptical cross section. The dermal region has been divided into three natural layers namely epidermis, dermis and subdermal tissues. The model incorporates the effect of important physiological parameters like blood mass flow rate, metabolic heat generation, and thermal conductivity of the tissues. The outer surface of the limb is exposed to the environment and it is assumed that heat loss takes place at the outer surface by conduction, convection, radiation, and evaporation. The temperature of inner core of the limb also varies at the lower atmospheric temperature. Appropriate boundary conditions have been framed based on the physical conditions of the problem. Cubic splines approach has been employed along radial direction and Fourier series along angular direction to obtain the solution. The numerical results have been computed for different values of eccentricity resembling with the elliptic cross section of the human limbs. The numerical results have been used to obtain the temperature profile and to study the relationships among the various physiological parameters.

An Integrated Framework for the Realtime Investigation of State Space Exploration

The objective of this paper is the introduction to a unified optimization framework for research and education. The OPTILIB framework implements different general purpose algorithms for combinatorial optimization and minimum search on standard continuous test functions. The preferences of this library are the straightforward integration of new optimization algorithms and problems as well as the visualization of the optimization process of different methods exploring the search space exclusively or for the real time visualization of different methods in parallel. Further the usage of several implemented methods is presented on the basis of two use cases, where the focus is especially on the algorithm visualization. First it is demonstrated how different methods can be compared conveniently using OPTILIB on the example of different iterative improvement schemes for the TRAVELING SALESMAN PROBLEM. A second study emphasizes how the framework can be used to find global minima in the continuous domain.

Determinants of Information Security Affecting Adoption of Web-based Integrated Information Systems

The purpose of this paper is to analyze determinants of information security affecting adoption of the Web-based integrated information systems (IIS). We introduced Web-based information systems which are designed to formulate strategic plans for Peruvian government. Theoretical model is proposed to test impact of organizational factors (deterrent efforts and severity; preventive efforts) and individual factors (information security threat; security awareness) on intentions to proactively use the Web-based IIS .Our empirical study results highlight that deterrent efforts and deterrent severity have no significant influence on the proactive use intentions of IIS, whereas, preventive efforts play an important role in proactive use intentions of IIS. Thus, we suggest that organizations need to do preventive efforts by introducing various information security solutions, and try to improve information security awareness while reducing the perceived information security threats.

Estimating Regression Effects in Com Poisson Generalized Linear Model

Com Poisson distribution is capable of modeling the count responses irrespective of their mean variance relation and the parameters of this distribution when fitted to a simple cross sectional data can be efficiently estimated using maximum likelihood (ML) method. In the regression setup, however, ML estimation of the parameters of the Com Poisson based generalized linear model is computationally intensive. In this paper, we propose to use quasilikelihood (QL) approach to estimate the effect of the covariates on the Com Poisson counts and investigate the performance of this method with respect to the ML method. QL estimates are consistent and almost as efficient as ML estimates. The simulation studies show that the efficiency loss in the estimation of all the parameters using QL approach as compared to ML approach is quite negligible, whereas QL approach is lesser involving than ML approach.

Home Network-Specific RBAC Model

As various mobile sensing technologies, remote control and ubiquitous infrastructure are developing and expectations on quality of life are increasing, a lot of researches and developments on home network technologies and services are actively on going, Until now, we have focused on how to provide users with high-level home network services, while not many researches on home network security for guaranteeing safety are progressing. So, in this paper, we propose an access control model specific to home network that provides various kinds of users with home network services up one-s characteristics and features, and protects home network systems from illegal/unnecessary accesses or intrusions.

Identifying and Prioritizing Goals of Joint Venture between Manufacturing Cooperative Firms, using TOPSIS

In recent years, strategic alliances have taken increasing importance as a means to control competitive forces and to enter into new markets. Joint ventures are one of the most frequently used contractual forms in strategic alliances. There are various motivations for cooperation between two or more firms e.g., accessing to technical know-how, accessing to financial resources and managing risks. The firms must know about these motivations to encourage for establishing joint venture. So, it is important for managers to understand about these motives. On the other hand, the cooperation section is one of the most effective parts in each country. In this way, our study identifies goals of joint venture between cooperative manufacturing firms, and prioritizes those using TOPSIS1. The results show that the most important of joint venture goals are: accessing to managerial know-how, sharing total capital investment.

Implementation of SSL Using Information Security Component Interface

Various security APIs (Application Programming Interfaces) are being used in a variety of application areas requiring the information security function. However, these standards are not compatible, and the developer must use those APIs selectively depending on the application environment or the programming language. To resolve this problem, we propose the standard draft of the information security component, while SSL (Secure Sockets Layer) using the confidentiality and integrity component interface has been implemented to verify validity of the standard proposal. The implemented SSL uses the lower-level SSL component when establishing the RMI (Remote Method Invocation) communication between components, as if the security algorithm had been implemented by adding one more layer on the TCP/IP.

People Counting in Transport Vehicles

Counting people from a video stream in a noisy environment is a challenging task. This project aims at developing a counting system for transport vehicles, integrated in a video surveillance product. This article presents a method for the detection and tracking of multiple faces in a video by using a model of first and second order local moments. An iterative process is used to estimate the position and shape of multiple faces in images, and to track them. the trajectories are then processed to count people entering and leaving the vehicle.

Ideological Tendencies of the Teachers about the Causes of Vandalism in Schools and Solution Proposals

Aggression is a behavior that cannot be approved by the society. Vandalism which is aggression towards objects is an action that tends to damage public or personal property. The behaviors that are described as vandalism can often be observed in the schools as well. According to Zwier and Vaughan (1) previous research about the reasons of and precautionary measures for vandalism in schools can be grouped in three tendency categories: conservative, liberal and radical. In this context, the main aim of this study is to discover which ideological tendency of the reasons of school vandalism is adopted by the teachers and what are their physical, environmental, school system and societal solutions for vandalism. A total of 200 teachers participated in this study, and the mean age was 34.20 years (SD = 6.54). The sample was made up of 109 females and 91 males. For the analysis of the data, SPSS 15.00, frequency, percentage, and t-test were used. The research showed that the teachers have tendencies in the order of conservative, liberal and radical for the reasons of vandalism. The research also showed that the teachers do not have any tendency for eliminating vandalism physically and general solutions on the level of society; on the other hand they mostly adopt a conservative tendency in terms of precautions against vandalism in the school system. Second most, they adopt the liberal tendency in terms of precautions against vandalism in the school system. . It is observed that the findings of this study are comparable to the existing literature on the subject. Future studies should be conducted with multiple variants and bigger sampling.

Kinetic, Thermodynamic and Process Modeling of Synthesis of UV Curable Glyceryl and Neopentyl Glycol Acrylates

Curing of paints by exposure to UV radiations is emerging as one of the best film forming technique as an alternative to traditional solvent borne oxidative and thermal curing coatings. The composition and chemistry of UV curable coatings and role of multifunctional and monofunctional monomers, oligomers, and photoinitiators have been discussed. The limitations imposed by thermodynamic equilibrium and tendency for acrylic double bond polymerizations during synthesis of multifunctional acrylates have been presented. Aim of present investigation was thus to explore the reaction variables associated with synthesis of multifunctional acrylates. Zirconium oxychloride was evaluated as catalyst against regular acid functional catalyst. The catalyzed synthesis of glyceryl acrylate and neopentyl glycol acrylate was conducted by variation of following reaction parameters: two different reactant molar ratios- 1:4 and 1:6; catalyst usage in % by moles on polyol- 2.5, 5.0 and 7.5 and two different reaction temperatures- 45 and 75 0C. The reaction was monitored by determination of acid value and hydroxy value at regular intervals, besides TLC, HPLC, and FTIR analysis of intermediates and products. On the basis of determination of reaction progress over 1-60 hrs, the esterification reaction was observed to follow 2nd order kinetics with rate constant varying from 1*10-4 to 7*10-4. The thermal and catalytic components of second order rate constant and energy of activation were also determined. Uses of these kinetic and thermodynamic parameters in design of reactor for manufacture of multifunctional acrylate ester have been presented. The synthesized multifunctional acrylates were used to formulate and apply UV curable clear coat followed by determination of curing characteristics and mechanical properties of cured film. The overall curing rates less than 05 min. were easily attained indicating economical viability of radiation curable system due to faster production schedules

Applications of Conic Optimization and Quadratic Programming in the Investigation of Index Arbitrage in the Thai Derivatives and Equity Markets

This research seeks to investigate the frequency and profitability of index arbitrage opportunities involving the SET50 futures, SET50 component stocks, and the ThaiDEX SET50 ETF (ticker symbol: TDEX). In particular, the frequency and profit of arbitrage are measured in the following three arbitrage tests: (1) SET50 futures vs. ThaiDEX SET50 ETF, (2) SET50 futures vs. SET50 component stocks, and (3) ThaiDEX SET50 ETF vs. SET50 component stocks are investigated. For tests (2) and (3), the problems involve conic optimization and quadratic programming as subproblems. This research is first to apply conic optimization and quadratic programming techniques in the context of index arbitrage and is first to investigate such index arbitrage in the Thai equity and derivatives markets. Thus, the contribution of this study is twofold. First, its results would help understand the contribution of the derivatives securities to the efficiency of the Thai markets. Second, the methodology employed in this study can be applied to other geographical markets, with minor adjustments.

The Finite Difference Scheme for the Suspended String Equation with the Nonlinear Damping Term

A numerical solution of the initial boundary value problem of the suspended string vibrating equation with the particular nonlinear damping term based on the finite difference scheme is presented in this paper. The investigation of how the second and third power terms of the nonlinear term affect the vibration characteristic. We compare the vibration amplitude as a result of the third power nonlinear damping with the second power obtained from previous report provided that the same initial shape and initial velocities are assumed. The comparison results show that the vibration amplitude is inversely proportional to the coefficient of the damping term for the third power nonlinear damping case, while the vibration amplitude is proportional to the coefficient of the damping term in the second power nonlinear damping case.

Changes of Poultry Meat Chemical Composition, in Relationship with Lighting Schedule

The paper is included within the framework of a complex research program, which was initiated from the hypothesis arguing on the existence of a correlation between pineal indolic and peptide hormones and the somatic development rhythm, including thus the epithalamium-epiphysis complex involvement. At birds, pineal gland contains a circadian oscillator, playing a main role in the temporal organization of the cerebral functions. The secretion of pineal indolic hormones is characterized by a high endogenous rhythmic alternation, modulated by the light/darkness (L/D) succession and by temperature as well. The research has been carried out using 100 chicken broilers - “Ross" commercial hybrid, randomly allocated in two experimental batches: Lc batch, reared under a 12L/12D lighting schedule and Lexp batch, which was photic pinealectomised through continuous exposition to light (150 lux, 24 hours, 56 days). Chemical and physical features of the meat issued from breast fillet and thighs muscles have been studied, determining the dry matter, proteins, fat, collagen, salt content and pH value, as well. Besides the variations of meat chemical composition in relation with lighting schedule, other parameters have been studied: live weight dynamics, feed intake and somatic development degree. The achieved results became significant since chickens have 7 days of age, some variations of the studied parameters being registered, revealing that the pineal gland physiologic activity, in relation with the lighting schedule, could be interpreted through the monitoring of the somatic development technological parameters, usually studied within the chicken broilers rearing aviculture practice.

Geographic Information System Mapping of Roadway Lighting and Traffic Accidents

The use of a Geographic Information System (GIS) in roadway lighting to show the state of street-lighting and nighttime accident is demonstrated. Geographical maps were generated showing colored streets based on how much of the street's length is illuminated. The night to daytime accidents ratio at intersections were found along with the state of lighting at those intersections. The result is a method to show the state of street-lighting at roads and intersections and a quick guide for decision makers to implement strategies for better street-lighting to reduce night time traffic accidents in a particular district.

Enhanced Data Access Control of Cooperative Environment used for DMU Based Design

Through the analysis of the process digital design based on digital mockup, the fact indicates that a distributed cooperative supporting environment is the foundation conditions to adopt design approach based on DMU. Data access authorization is concerned firstly because the value and sensitivity of the data for the enterprise. The access control for administrators is often rather weak other than business user. So authors established an enhanced system to avoid the administrators accessing the engineering data by potential approach and without authorization. Thus the data security is improved.

Securing Justice: A Critical Analysis of Kenya-s Post 9/11 Security Apparatus

The 9/11 suicide attacks in New York, Washington, D.C., and Pennsylvania, triggered a number of security responses both in the United States of America and other Countries in the World. Kenya, which is an ally and a close partner to North America and Europe, was not left behind. While many states had been parties to numerous terrorism conventions, their response in implementing them had been slow and needed this catalyst. This special case offered a window of opportunity for many “security conscious" regimes in cementing their legal-criminological and political security apparatus. At the international level, the 9/11 case led to the hasty adoption of Security Council resolution 1373 in 2001, which called upon states to adopt wide-ranging and comprehensive steps and strategies to combat international terrorism and to become parties to the relevant international conventions and protocols relating to terrorism. Since then, Kenya has responded with speed in devising social-legal-criminological-political actions.

Increasing Lifetime of Target Tracking Wireless Sensor Networks

A model to identify the lifetime of target tracking wireless sensor network is proposed. The model is a static clusterbased architecture and aims to provide two factors. First, it is to increase the lifetime of target tracking wireless sensor network. Secondly, it is to enable good localization result with low energy consumption for each sensor in the network. The model consists of heterogeneous sensors and each sensing member node in a cluster uses two operation modes–active mode and sleep mode. The performance results illustrate that the proposed architecture consumes less energy and increases lifetime than centralized and dynamic clustering architectures, for target tracking sensor network.

Thematic Role Extraction Using Shallow Parsing

Extracting thematic (semantic) roles is one of the major steps in representing text meaning. It refers to finding the semantic relations between a predicate and syntactic constituents in a sentence. In this paper we present a rule-based approach to extract semantic roles from Persian sentences. The system exploits a twophase architecture to (1) identify the arguments and (2) label them for each predicate. For the first phase we developed a rule based shallow parser to chunk Persian sentences and for the second phase we developed a knowledge-based system to assign 16 selected thematic roles to the chunks. The experimental results of testing each phase are shown at the end of the paper.