Simulation of Population Dynamics of Aedes aegypti using Climate Dependent Model
A climate dependent model is proposed to simulate
the population of Aedes aegypti mosquito. In developing the model,
average temperature of Shah Alam, Malaysia was used to determine
the development rate of each stage of the life cycle of mosquito.
Rainfall dependent function was proposed to simulate the hatching
rate of the eggs under several assumptions. The proposed transition
matrix was obtained and used to simulate the population of eggs,
larvae, pupae and adults mosquito. It was found that the peak of
mosquito abundance comes during a relatively dry period following a
heavy rainfall. In addition, lag time between the peaks of mosquito
abundance and dengue fever cases in Shah Alam was estimated.
[1] D.A. Focks, et al., "Dynamic Life Table Model for Aedes aegpti
(Diptera: Culicidae): Analysis of the Literature and Model
Development," Journal of Medical Entomology, vol. 30, no. 6, pp.
1003-1017, 1993.
[2] M.Otero, H.G. Solari and N. Schweigmann, "A stochastic population
dynamics model for Aedes Aegypti: Formulation and Application to a
city with temperature climate", Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, vol.
68, pp. 1945-1974, 2006.
[3] K.H. Tan, et al., "Modelling Mosquito Population with Temperature
Effects," Proc. of International Conference on Environmental Research
and Technology, Penang, Malaysia, 2008, pp. 536-540.
[4] P.I. Ndiaye, et al., "Rainfall triggered dynamics of Aedes mosquito
aggressiveness," Journal of Theoretical Biology, vol. 243, pp. 222-229,
2006.
[5] B. Schaeffer, B. Mondet and S. Touzeau, "Using a climate-dependent
model to predict mosquito abundance: Application to Aedes
(Stegomyia) africanus and Aedes (Diceromyia) furcifer
(Diptera:Culicidae)," Infection, Genetics and Evolution, Vol. 8, pp. 422-
432, 2008.
[6] K.L. Gage, et al., "Climate and Vectorborne Diseases," American
Journal of Preventive Medicine, vol. 35, no. 5, pp. 436-450, 2008.
[7] P. Wu, et al., "Weather as an effective predictor for occurrence of
dengue fever in Taiwan," Acta Tropica, vol. 103, pp. 50-57, 2007.
[8] P. Wu, et al., "Higher temperature and urbanization affect the spatial
patterns of dengue fever transmission in subtropical Taiwan,", Science
of the Total Environment, vol. 407, pp. 2224-2233, 2009.
[9] K.V. Schreiber, "An investigation of relationships between climate and
dengue using a water budgeting technique," International Journal of of
Biometeorology, vol. 45, pp. 81-89, 2001.
[10] N. Bacaer, "Approximation of the Basic Reproduction Number R0 for
Vector-Borne Diseases with a Periodic Vector Population,", Bulletin of
Mathematical Biology, vol. 69, pp. 1067-1091, 2007.
[11] S. Altizer, et al., "Seasonality and the Dynamics of infectious disease,"
Ecology Letters, vol. 9, pp. 467-484, 2006.
[12] Division of Vector Borne and Infectious Disease. Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention. CDC-Mosquitoes' main Aquatic Habitats -
Dengue. [Online] September 10, 2009. [Cited: November 29, 2011.]
http://www.cdc.gov/dengue/entomologyEcology/m_habitats.html.
[13] C.J.M. Koenraadt, et al., "Spatial and Temporal Patterns in Pupal and
Adult Productions of the Dengue Fever Vector Aedes aegypti in
Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand," American Journal of Tropical Medicine
and Hygiene, vol. 79(2), pp. 230-238, 2008.
[14] H. Caswell, Matrix Population Models: Construction, Analysis and
Interpretation, Second Edition. Sunderland : Sinauer Associates, Inc.,
2001.
[15] J. Boardman, et al., Using Population Models in the Teaching of
Eigenvalues. Piscataway : Center for Discrete Mathematics &
Theoretical Computer Science, Rutgers University, 2007.
[16] N. Yusoff, H. Budin, and S. Ismail, "Stage-structured population
dynamics of Aedes aegypti," International Journal of Modern Physics:
Conference Series, to be published.
[17] M.N. Burattini, et al., "Modelling the control strategies against dengue
in Singapore" Epidemiology and Infectious Disease, vol. 136, pp. 309-
319 2008.
[18] C. Koenraadt and L. Harrington, "Flushing Effect of Rain on Container-
Inhabiting Mosquitoes Aedes aegypti and Culex pipiens
(Diptera:Culicidae)," Journal of Medical Entomology, vol. 45, no. 1, pp.
28-35, 2008.
[19] F.A.B. Coutinho, et al., "An approximate threshold condition for nonautonomous
system: An application to a vector-borne infection,"
Mathematiics and Computers in Simulation, vol. 70, pp. 149-158, 2005.
[1] D.A. Focks, et al., "Dynamic Life Table Model for Aedes aegpti
(Diptera: Culicidae): Analysis of the Literature and Model
Development," Journal of Medical Entomology, vol. 30, no. 6, pp.
1003-1017, 1993.
[2] M.Otero, H.G. Solari and N. Schweigmann, "A stochastic population
dynamics model for Aedes Aegypti: Formulation and Application to a
city with temperature climate", Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, vol.
68, pp. 1945-1974, 2006.
[3] K.H. Tan, et al., "Modelling Mosquito Population with Temperature
Effects," Proc. of International Conference on Environmental Research
and Technology, Penang, Malaysia, 2008, pp. 536-540.
[4] P.I. Ndiaye, et al., "Rainfall triggered dynamics of Aedes mosquito
aggressiveness," Journal of Theoretical Biology, vol. 243, pp. 222-229,
2006.
[5] B. Schaeffer, B. Mondet and S. Touzeau, "Using a climate-dependent
model to predict mosquito abundance: Application to Aedes
(Stegomyia) africanus and Aedes (Diceromyia) furcifer
(Diptera:Culicidae)," Infection, Genetics and Evolution, Vol. 8, pp. 422-
432, 2008.
[6] K.L. Gage, et al., "Climate and Vectorborne Diseases," American
Journal of Preventive Medicine, vol. 35, no. 5, pp. 436-450, 2008.
[7] P. Wu, et al., "Weather as an effective predictor for occurrence of
dengue fever in Taiwan," Acta Tropica, vol. 103, pp. 50-57, 2007.
[8] P. Wu, et al., "Higher temperature and urbanization affect the spatial
patterns of dengue fever transmission in subtropical Taiwan,", Science
of the Total Environment, vol. 407, pp. 2224-2233, 2009.
[9] K.V. Schreiber, "An investigation of relationships between climate and
dengue using a water budgeting technique," International Journal of of
Biometeorology, vol. 45, pp. 81-89, 2001.
[10] N. Bacaer, "Approximation of the Basic Reproduction Number R0 for
Vector-Borne Diseases with a Periodic Vector Population,", Bulletin of
Mathematical Biology, vol. 69, pp. 1067-1091, 2007.
[11] S. Altizer, et al., "Seasonality and the Dynamics of infectious disease,"
Ecology Letters, vol. 9, pp. 467-484, 2006.
[12] Division of Vector Borne and Infectious Disease. Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention. CDC-Mosquitoes' main Aquatic Habitats -
Dengue. [Online] September 10, 2009. [Cited: November 29, 2011.]
http://www.cdc.gov/dengue/entomologyEcology/m_habitats.html.
[13] C.J.M. Koenraadt, et al., "Spatial and Temporal Patterns in Pupal and
Adult Productions of the Dengue Fever Vector Aedes aegypti in
Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand," American Journal of Tropical Medicine
and Hygiene, vol. 79(2), pp. 230-238, 2008.
[14] H. Caswell, Matrix Population Models: Construction, Analysis and
Interpretation, Second Edition. Sunderland : Sinauer Associates, Inc.,
2001.
[15] J. Boardman, et al., Using Population Models in the Teaching of
Eigenvalues. Piscataway : Center for Discrete Mathematics &
Theoretical Computer Science, Rutgers University, 2007.
[16] N. Yusoff, H. Budin, and S. Ismail, "Stage-structured population
dynamics of Aedes aegypti," International Journal of Modern Physics:
Conference Series, to be published.
[17] M.N. Burattini, et al., "Modelling the control strategies against dengue
in Singapore" Epidemiology and Infectious Disease, vol. 136, pp. 309-
319 2008.
[18] C. Koenraadt and L. Harrington, "Flushing Effect of Rain on Container-
Inhabiting Mosquitoes Aedes aegypti and Culex pipiens
(Diptera:Culicidae)," Journal of Medical Entomology, vol. 45, no. 1, pp.
28-35, 2008.
[19] F.A.B. Coutinho, et al., "An approximate threshold condition for nonautonomous
system: An application to a vector-borne infection,"
Mathematiics and Computers in Simulation, vol. 70, pp. 149-158, 2005.
@article{"International Journal of Engineering, Mathematical and Physical Sciences:52287", author = "Nuraini Yusoff and Harun Budin and Salemah Ismail", title = "Simulation of Population Dynamics of Aedes aegypti using Climate Dependent Model", abstract = "A climate dependent model is proposed to simulate
the population of Aedes aegypti mosquito. In developing the model,
average temperature of Shah Alam, Malaysia was used to determine
the development rate of each stage of the life cycle of mosquito.
Rainfall dependent function was proposed to simulate the hatching
rate of the eggs under several assumptions. The proposed transition
matrix was obtained and used to simulate the population of eggs,
larvae, pupae and adults mosquito. It was found that the peak of
mosquito abundance comes during a relatively dry period following a
heavy rainfall. In addition, lag time between the peaks of mosquito
abundance and dengue fever cases in Shah Alam was estimated.", keywords = "simulation, Aedes aegypti, Lefkovitch matrix,
rainfall dependent model, Shah Alam", volume = "6", number = "2", pages = "136-6", }
