A Preliminary Analysis of Sustainable Development in the Belgrade Metropolitan Area
The paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the
sustainable development in the Belgrade Metropolitan Region - BMA
(level NUTS 2) preliminary evaluating the three chosen components:
1) economic growth and developmental changes; 2) competitiveness;
and 3) territorial concentration and industrial specialization. First, we
identified the main results of development changes and economic
growth by applying Shift-share analysis on the metropolitan level.
Second, the empirical evaluation of competitiveness in the BMA is
based on the analysis of absolute and relative values of eight
indicators by Spider method. Paper shows that the consideration of
the national share, industrial mix and metropolitan/regional share in
total Shift share of the BMA, as well as economic/functional
specialization of the BMA indicate very strong process of
deindustrialization. Allocative component of the BMA economic
growth has positive value, reflecting the above-average sector
productivity compared to the national average. Third, the important
positive role of metropolitan/regional component in decomposition of
the BMA economic growth is highlighted as one of the key results.
Finally, comparative analysis of the industrial territorial
concentration in the BMA in relation to Serbia is based on location
quotient (LQ) or Balassa index as a valid measure. The results
indicate absolute and relative differences in decrease of industry
territorial concentration as well as inefficiency of utilizing territorial
capital in the BMA. Results are important for the increase of regional
competitiveness and territorial distribution in this area as well as for
improvement of sustainable metropolitan and sector policies,
planning and governance on this level.
[1] M. Vujošević, S. Zeković, and T. Maričić, Novi evropski regionalizam i
regionalno upravljanje u Srbiji, Knjiga 2, Regionalno planiranje i
upravljanje u Srbiji i novi institucionalni dizajn. Posebna izdanja no.75,
Beograd: Institut za arhitekturu i urbanizam Srbije, 2015.
[2] M. Dogan, “Political Science and Other Social Sciences“, in A new
handbook of political sciences. R.E. Goodin, H.D. Klingemann, Ed.
Oxford: Oxford university press, 1996, pp. 97-130.
[3] M. Vujošević, S. Zeković, and T. Maričić, Novi evropski regionalizam i
regionalno upravljanje u Srbiji, Knjiga 1, Opšti aspekti regionalnog
pitanja i novi evropski regionalizam. Posebna izdanja no.69, Beograd:
Institut za arhitekturu i urbanizam Srbije, 2012.
[4] M. Vujošević, S. Zeković, and T. Maričić, “Post‐Socialist Transition in
Serbia and Its Unsustainable Path,” European Planning Studies, vol.20,
no.10, pp. 1707‐1727, October 2012.
[5] E. G. Guba, and Y. S. Lincoln, “Paradigmatic controversies,
contradictions, and emerging influences”, in The Sage Handbook of
Qualitative Research, 3rd ed., N. K. Denzin and Y. S. Lincoln, Eds.
Thousand Oaks, USA: Sage, 2005, pp.191-215.
[6] M. Veber, Metodologija društvenih nauka, Zagreb: Globus, 1989.
[7] M. Vujošević, Uloga prostornog planiranja u odnosu na druge
instrumente razvoja. Doktorska disertacija, Beograd: Geografski fakultet
Univerziteta u Beogradu, 1997.
[8] G. Swanson, “Frameworks for Comparative Research: Structural
Anthropology and Theory of Action”, in Comparative Methods in
Sociology, I. Vallier, Ed. Berkeley: University of California Press, 1971,
p.141-202.
[9] B. H. Stevens, and L.C. Moore, “A critical review of the literature on
shift-share as a forecasting technique,” Journal of Regional Science, vol.
20, no.4, pp. 419-437, November 1980.
[10] R. Barff, and P. Knight, “Dynamic Shift-Share Analysis”, Growth and
Change, vol. 19, no. 2, pp.1-10, April 1988.
[11] J. Esteban-Marquillas, Regional Convergence in Europe and the
Industry-Mix: a Shift-Share Analysis. Barselona: Institut d'Anàlisi
Econòmica, CSIC, 1999.
[12] J. Esteban-Marquillas, “A Reinterpretation of Shift-Share Analysis”,
Regional and Urban Economics, vol.2, no. 3, pp. 249-255, October
1972.
[13] M. Deakin, G. Mitchell, P. Nijkamp, and R.Vreeker, Sustainable Urban
Development Volume 2 The Environmental Assessment Methods.
Routledge, Taylor-Fransis, 2007.
[14] F. R. Bruinsma, P. Nijkamp, and R.Vreeker, “Experts at Arm’s Length
of Public Policy Makers: A Case Study of Utrecht”, in Recent
Developments in Evolution, H.Voogd, Ed. Groningen: Geo Press, 2001,
p.123-152.
[15] S. Zeković, “Regional competitiveness and territorial development of
industry in Serbia,” Spatium, no. 21, pp.27-38, December 2009.
[16] M. Vujošević, S. Zeković,and T. Maričić, “Undermined Territorial
Capital of Serbia. Some Future Prospects and Predictable Scenarios”, in
Regional Development, Spatial Planning and Strategic Governance, M.
Vujošević, Ed., Thematic Conference Proceedings, Volume 1, Belgrade:
IAUS, 2009, pp. 21-52.
[17] B. Balassa, Trade Liberalisation and Revealed Comparative Advantage,
The Manchester School, 33, pp. 99-123, 1965.
[18] M. Vresk, Osnove urbane geografije. Školska knjiga: Zagreb, 1980.
[19] I. Krešić, Prostorna ekonomija - osnove teorije, lokacije, razmeštaja i
organizacije u prostoru. Zagreb: Informator, 1982.
[20] J. Puljiz, Čimbenici regionalnog razvoja i regionalnih nejednakosti u
Republici Hrvatskoj. Doktorska disertacija, Sveučilište u Splitu, Split:
Ekonomski fakultet:, 2009.
[21] I. Rosić, Regionalna ekonomika, Beograd: Naučna knjiga, 1980.
[22] Regionalni prostorni plan Administrativnog područja grada Beograda,
Službeni list grada Beograda, no. 10/04.
[23] Prostorni plan područja posebne namene koridora VII Podunavlje (kroz
Srbiju), Službeni glasnik RS, no.1/2015.
[24] Spatial plan of the Republic of Serbia/Prostorni plan Republike Srbije,
Službeni glasnik Republike Srbije, no. 88/2010. [25] M.Vujošević, S. Zeković, and T. Maričić, Postsocijalistička tranzicija u
Srbiji i teritorijalni kapital Srbije. Stanje, neki budući izgledi i
predvidljivi scenariji. Beograd: Institut za arhitekturu i urbanizam
Srbije, 2010.
[26] S. Zeković, Tehnički progres i regionalni razvoj industrije u Srbiji.
Posebna izdanja br.32, Beograd: Institut za arhitekturu i urbanizam
Srbije, 1997.
[27] S. Zeković, M. Vujošević, and T. Maričić, “Comparative Analysis of
Territorial Development in the Belgrade Metropolitan Area and in
Serbian Part of the Danube River Basin”, in Recent Researches in
Engineering Mechanics, Urban & Naval Transportation and Tourism,
Proceedings of the 5th IASME / WSEAS International Conference on
Urban Planning and Transportation, Cambridge, UK: WSEAS Press,
2012, p.120-126.
[28] S. Zeković, Novi ekonomski polovi, vizija i vizualizacija prostornog
razvoja metropolskih područja, In Nova generacija evropskih
dokumenata održivog razvoja i pouke za Srbiju, M. Filipović, M.
Vujošević, Ed. Beograd: Ekonomski fakultet Univerziteta u Beogradu,
Institut za arhitekturu i urbanizam Srbije, 2008, pp. 109‐130.
[29] S. Zeković, and M. Vujošević, “Some global challenges for
socioeconomic growth in the South‐Eastern Europe: the role of
industrial policy“, Second Conference of LSEE’s Research Network on
Social Cohesion in South East Europe Post-crisis recovery in Southeast
Europe and beyond: policy challenges for social and economic
inclusion, London, 2014.
[30] European Commission, Cohesion policy 20142020. October 2011.
[31] Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, Belgrade, 2011, 2012 and
2013.
[1] M. Vujošević, S. Zeković, and T. Maričić, Novi evropski regionalizam i
regionalno upravljanje u Srbiji, Knjiga 2, Regionalno planiranje i
upravljanje u Srbiji i novi institucionalni dizajn. Posebna izdanja no.75,
Beograd: Institut za arhitekturu i urbanizam Srbije, 2015.
[2] M. Dogan, “Political Science and Other Social Sciences“, in A new
handbook of political sciences. R.E. Goodin, H.D. Klingemann, Ed.
Oxford: Oxford university press, 1996, pp. 97-130.
[3] M. Vujošević, S. Zeković, and T. Maričić, Novi evropski regionalizam i
regionalno upravljanje u Srbiji, Knjiga 1, Opšti aspekti regionalnog
pitanja i novi evropski regionalizam. Posebna izdanja no.69, Beograd:
Institut za arhitekturu i urbanizam Srbije, 2012.
[4] M. Vujošević, S. Zeković, and T. Maričić, “Post‐Socialist Transition in
Serbia and Its Unsustainable Path,” European Planning Studies, vol.20,
no.10, pp. 1707‐1727, October 2012.
[5] E. G. Guba, and Y. S. Lincoln, “Paradigmatic controversies,
contradictions, and emerging influences”, in The Sage Handbook of
Qualitative Research, 3rd ed., N. K. Denzin and Y. S. Lincoln, Eds.
Thousand Oaks, USA: Sage, 2005, pp.191-215.
[6] M. Veber, Metodologija društvenih nauka, Zagreb: Globus, 1989.
[7] M. Vujošević, Uloga prostornog planiranja u odnosu na druge
instrumente razvoja. Doktorska disertacija, Beograd: Geografski fakultet
Univerziteta u Beogradu, 1997.
[8] G. Swanson, “Frameworks for Comparative Research: Structural
Anthropology and Theory of Action”, in Comparative Methods in
Sociology, I. Vallier, Ed. Berkeley: University of California Press, 1971,
p.141-202.
[9] B. H. Stevens, and L.C. Moore, “A critical review of the literature on
shift-share as a forecasting technique,” Journal of Regional Science, vol.
20, no.4, pp. 419-437, November 1980.
[10] R. Barff, and P. Knight, “Dynamic Shift-Share Analysis”, Growth and
Change, vol. 19, no. 2, pp.1-10, April 1988.
[11] J. Esteban-Marquillas, Regional Convergence in Europe and the
Industry-Mix: a Shift-Share Analysis. Barselona: Institut d'Anàlisi
Econòmica, CSIC, 1999.
[12] J. Esteban-Marquillas, “A Reinterpretation of Shift-Share Analysis”,
Regional and Urban Economics, vol.2, no. 3, pp. 249-255, October
1972.
[13] M. Deakin, G. Mitchell, P. Nijkamp, and R.Vreeker, Sustainable Urban
Development Volume 2 The Environmental Assessment Methods.
Routledge, Taylor-Fransis, 2007.
[14] F. R. Bruinsma, P. Nijkamp, and R.Vreeker, “Experts at Arm’s Length
of Public Policy Makers: A Case Study of Utrecht”, in Recent
Developments in Evolution, H.Voogd, Ed. Groningen: Geo Press, 2001,
p.123-152.
[15] S. Zeković, “Regional competitiveness and territorial development of
industry in Serbia,” Spatium, no. 21, pp.27-38, December 2009.
[16] M. Vujošević, S. Zeković,and T. Maričić, “Undermined Territorial
Capital of Serbia. Some Future Prospects and Predictable Scenarios”, in
Regional Development, Spatial Planning and Strategic Governance, M.
Vujošević, Ed., Thematic Conference Proceedings, Volume 1, Belgrade:
IAUS, 2009, pp. 21-52.
[17] B. Balassa, Trade Liberalisation and Revealed Comparative Advantage,
The Manchester School, 33, pp. 99-123, 1965.
[18] M. Vresk, Osnove urbane geografije. Školska knjiga: Zagreb, 1980.
[19] I. Krešić, Prostorna ekonomija - osnove teorije, lokacije, razmeštaja i
organizacije u prostoru. Zagreb: Informator, 1982.
[20] J. Puljiz, Čimbenici regionalnog razvoja i regionalnih nejednakosti u
Republici Hrvatskoj. Doktorska disertacija, Sveučilište u Splitu, Split:
Ekonomski fakultet:, 2009.
[21] I. Rosić, Regionalna ekonomika, Beograd: Naučna knjiga, 1980.
[22] Regionalni prostorni plan Administrativnog područja grada Beograda,
Službeni list grada Beograda, no. 10/04.
[23] Prostorni plan područja posebne namene koridora VII Podunavlje (kroz
Srbiju), Službeni glasnik RS, no.1/2015.
[24] Spatial plan of the Republic of Serbia/Prostorni plan Republike Srbije,
Službeni glasnik Republike Srbije, no. 88/2010. [25] M.Vujošević, S. Zeković, and T. Maričić, Postsocijalistička tranzicija u
Srbiji i teritorijalni kapital Srbije. Stanje, neki budući izgledi i
predvidljivi scenariji. Beograd: Institut za arhitekturu i urbanizam
Srbije, 2010.
[26] S. Zeković, Tehnički progres i regionalni razvoj industrije u Srbiji.
Posebna izdanja br.32, Beograd: Institut za arhitekturu i urbanizam
Srbije, 1997.
[27] S. Zeković, M. Vujošević, and T. Maričić, “Comparative Analysis of
Territorial Development in the Belgrade Metropolitan Area and in
Serbian Part of the Danube River Basin”, in Recent Researches in
Engineering Mechanics, Urban & Naval Transportation and Tourism,
Proceedings of the 5th IASME / WSEAS International Conference on
Urban Planning and Transportation, Cambridge, UK: WSEAS Press,
2012, p.120-126.
[28] S. Zeković, Novi ekonomski polovi, vizija i vizualizacija prostornog
razvoja metropolskih područja, In Nova generacija evropskih
dokumenata održivog razvoja i pouke za Srbiju, M. Filipović, M.
Vujošević, Ed. Beograd: Ekonomski fakultet Univerziteta u Beogradu,
Institut za arhitekturu i urbanizam Srbije, 2008, pp. 109‐130.
[29] S. Zeković, and M. Vujošević, “Some global challenges for
socioeconomic growth in the South‐Eastern Europe: the role of
industrial policy“, Second Conference of LSEE’s Research Network on
Social Cohesion in South East Europe Post-crisis recovery in Southeast
Europe and beyond: policy challenges for social and economic
inclusion, London, 2014.
[30] European Commission, Cohesion policy 20142020. October 2011.
[31] Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, Belgrade, 2011, 2012 and
2013.
@article{"International Journal of Architectural, Civil and Construction Sciences:70459", author = "S. Zeković and M. Vujošević and T. Maričić", title = "A Preliminary Analysis of Sustainable Development in the Belgrade Metropolitan Area", abstract = "The paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the
sustainable development in the Belgrade Metropolitan Region - BMA
(level NUTS 2) preliminary evaluating the three chosen components:
1) economic growth and developmental changes; 2) competitiveness;
and 3) territorial concentration and industrial specialization. First, we
identified the main results of development changes and economic
growth by applying Shift-share analysis on the metropolitan level.
Second, the empirical evaluation of competitiveness in the BMA is
based on the analysis of absolute and relative values of eight
indicators by Spider method. Paper shows that the consideration of
the national share, industrial mix and metropolitan/regional share in
total Shift share of the BMA, as well as economic/functional
specialization of the BMA indicate very strong process of
deindustrialization. Allocative component of the BMA economic
growth has positive value, reflecting the above-average sector
productivity compared to the national average. Third, the important
positive role of metropolitan/regional component in decomposition of
the BMA economic growth is highlighted as one of the key results.
Finally, comparative analysis of the industrial territorial
concentration in the BMA in relation to Serbia is based on location
quotient (LQ) or Balassa index as a valid measure. The results
indicate absolute and relative differences in decrease of industry
territorial concentration as well as inefficiency of utilizing territorial
capital in the BMA. Results are important for the increase of regional
competitiveness and territorial distribution in this area as well as for
improvement of sustainable metropolitan and sector policies,
planning and governance on this level.", keywords = "Belgrade Metropolitan Area (BMA), Comprehensive
analysis/evaluation, economic growth and competitiveness,
sustainable development.", volume = "9", number = "7", pages = "839-8", }
