Trends in Extreme Rainfall Events in Tasmania, Australia
Climate change will affect various aspects of
hydrological cycle such as rainfall. A change in rainfall will affect
flood magnitude and frequency in future which will affect the design
and operation of hydraulic structures. In this paper, trends in subhourly,
sub-daily, and daily extreme rainfall events from 18 rainfall
stations located in Tasmania, Australia are examined. Two nonparametric
tests (Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s Rho) are applied to
detect trends at 10%, 5%, and 1% significance levels. Sub-hourly (6,
12, 18, and 30 minutes) annual maximum rainfall events have been
found to experience statistically significant upward trends at 10%
level of significance. However, sub-daily durations (1 hour, 3 and 12
hours) exhibit decreasing trends and no trends exists for longer
duration rainfall events (e.g. 24 and 72 hours). Some of the durations
(e.g. 6 minutes and 6 hours) show similar results (with upward
trends) for both the tests. For 12, 18, 60 minutes and 3 hours
durations both the tests show similar downward trends. This finding
has important implication for Tasmania in the design of urban
infrastructure where shorter duration rainfall events are more relevant
for smaller urban catchments such as parking lots, roof catchments
and smaller sub-divisions.
[1] L. Coates, “An overview of fatalities from some natural hazards in
Australia,” in Proc. Conference on Natural Disaster Reduction:
Engineers Australia, Canberra, ACT, Australia, 1996, pp. 49–54.
[2] R. Suppiah, and K. J. Hennessy, “Trends in total rainfall, heavy rain
events and number of dry days in Australia,” International Journal of
Climatology, vol.18, issue. 10, pp. 1141-1164, Aug. 1998.
[3] K. E. Kunkel, K. Andsager, and D. R. Easterling, “Long-term trends in
extreme precipitation events over the conterminous United States and
Canada,” Journal of Climate, vol. 12, issue. 8, pp. 2515 – 2527, Aug.
1999.
[4] K. E. Kunkel, et al., "Observations and regional climate model
simulations of heavy precipitation events and seasonal anomalies: A
comparison," Journal of Hydrometeorology, vol. 3.3, issue. 3, pp. 322 –
334, June. 2002.
[5] K. E. Kunkel, D. R. Easterling, K. Redmond, and K. Hubbard,
“Temporal variations of extreme precipitation events in the United
States: 1895–2000,” Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 30, issue. 17, p.
1900, Sep. 2003.
[6] R. Joseph, M. Ting, and P. Kumar, “Multiple-scale spatio-temporal
variability of precipitation over the coterminous United States,” Journal
of Hydrometeorology, vol. 1, issue. 5, pp. 373-392, Oct. 2000.
[7] M. Brunetti, M. Colacino, M. Maugeri, and T. Nanni, “Trends in the
daily intensity of precipitation in Italy from 1951 to 1996,” International
Journal of Climatology, vol. 21, issue. 3, pp. 299-316, March. 2001.
[8] S. K. Aryal, B. C. Bates, E. P. Campbell, Y. Li, M. J. Palmer, and N. R.
Viney, “Characterizing and modeling temporal and spatial trends in
rainfall extremes,” Journal of Hydrometeorology, vol. 10, issue. 1, pp.
241-253, Feb. 2009.
[9] M. N. Khaliq, T. B. Ouarda, P. Gachon, L. Sushama, and A. St-Hilaire,
“Identification of hydrological trends in the presence of serial and cross
correlations: A review of selected methods and their application to
annual flow regimes of Canadian rivers,” Journal of Hydrology, vol.
368, issue. 1, pp. 117-130, Apr. 2009.
[10] K. E. Trenberth, “Atmospheric moisture residence times and cycling:
Implications for rainfall rates and climate change,” Climatic change, vol.
39, issue. 4, pp. 667-694, Aug. 1998.
[11] L. V. Alexander, et al., “Global observed changes in daily climate
extremes of temperature and precipitation,” Journal of Geophysical
Research: Atmospheres (1984–2012), vol. 111, issue. D5, March. 2006.
[12] P. Y. Groisman, et al., “Trends in intense precipitation in the climate
record,” Journal of climate, vol. 18, issue. 9, pp. 1326-1350, May. 2005.
[13] G. Meehl, et al., Global climate projections, in Climate Change 2007:
The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the
Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, edited by S. Solomon et al., Cambridge Univ. Press,
Cambridge, U. K. 2007, pp. 747–845.
[14] P. G. Oguntunde, J. Friesen, N. van de Giesen, and H. H. Savenije,
“Hydroclimatology of the Volta River Basin in West Africa: Trends and
variability from 1901 to 2002,” Physics and Chemistry of the Earth,
Parts A/B/C, vol. 31, issue. 18, pp. 1180-1188, 2006.
[15] M. Cannarozzo, L. V. Noto, and F. Viola, “Spatial distribution of
rainfall trends in Sicily (1921-2000),” Physics and Chemistry of the
Earth, Parts A/B/C, vol. 31, issue. 18, pp. 1201-1211, 2006.
[16] K. Adamowski, and J. Bougadis, “Detection of trends in annual extreme
rainfall,” Hydrological Processes, vol. 17, issue. 17, pp. 3547-3560,
Dec. 2003.
[17] A. Mailhot, S. Duchesne, D. Caya, and G. Talbot, “Assessment of future
change in intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves for Southern
Quebec using the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM),” Journal
of hydrology, vol. 347, issue. 1, pp. 197-210, Dec. 2007.
[18] R. Hardwick Jones, S. Westra, and A. Sharma, “Observed relationships
between extreme sub‐daily precipitation, surface temperature, and
relative humidity,” Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 37, issue. 22,
Nov. 2010.
[19] G. Lenderink, and E. Van Meijgaard, “Increase in hourly precipitation
extremes beyond expectations from temperature changes,” Nature
Geoscience, vol. 1, issue. 8, pp. 511-514, July. 2008.
[20] A. Dai, X. Lin, and K. L. Hsu, “The frequency, intensity, and diurnal
cycle of precipitation in surface and satellite observations over low-and
mid-latitudes,” Climate dynamics, vol. 29, issue. 7, pp. 727-744, Dec.
2007.
[21] P. Leahy, G. Kiely, and T. M. Scanlon, “Managed grasslands: A
greenhouse gas sink or source?,” Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 31,
issue. 20, L20507, Oct. 2004.
[22] B. M. Reich, “Short-duration rainfall-intensity estimates and other
design aids for regions of sparse data,” Journal of Hydrology, vol. 1,
issue. 1, pp. 3-28, March. 1963.
[23] C. W. Landsea, G. A. Vecchi, L. Bengtsson, and T. R. Knutson, “Impact
of Duration Thresholds on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Counts,” Journal
of Climate, vol. 23, issue. 10, pp. 2508-2519, May. 2010.
[24] T. R. Knutson., C. Landsea, and K. A. Emanuel, “Tropical cyclones and
climate change: A review,” InGlobal Perspectives on Tropical
Cyclones: From Science to Mitigation, Singapore, World Scientific
Publishing Company, May. 2010, pp. 243-284.
[25] K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen, “Significant climate change of extreme rainfall in
Denmark,” Water Science & Technology, vol. 54, issue. 6-7, pp. 1-8,
2006.
[26] B. Yu, and D. T. Neil, “Long‐term variations in regional rainfall in the
south‐west of Western Australia and the difference between average and
high intensity rainfalls,” International Journal of Climatology, vol.13,
issue. 1, pp. 77-88, Jan. 1993.
[27] N. Nicholls, and A. Kariko, “East Australian rainfall events: Interannual
variations, trends, and relationships with the Southern
Oscillation,” Journal of Climate, vol. 6, issue. 6, pp. 1141-1152, June.
1993.
[28] M. Haylock, and N. Nicholls, “Trends in extreme rainfall indices for an
updated high quality data set for Australia, 1910-1998,” International
Journal of Climatology, vol. 20, issue. 13, pp. 1533-1541, Nov. 2000.
[29] J. Li, J. Feng, and Y. Li, “A possible cause of decreasing summer
rainfall in northeast Australia,” International Journal of
Climatology, vol. 32, issue. 7, pp. 995-1005, June. 2012.
[30] K. Haddad, A. Rahman, and J. Green, “Design rainfall estimation in
Australia: a case study using L moments and generalized least squares
regression,” Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk
Assessment, vol. 25, issue. 6, pp. 815-825, Aug. 2011.
[31] S. Westra, and S. A. Sisson, “Detection of non-stationarity in
precipitation extremes using a max-stable process model,” Journal of
Hydrology, vol. 406, issue. 1-2, pp. 119-128, Aug 2011.
[32] Y. R. Chen, B. Yu, and G. Jenkins, “Secular variation in rainfall and
intensity-frequency-duration curves in Eastern Australia,” Journal of
Water and Climate Change, vol. 4, issue. 3, pp. 244-251, 2013.
[33] M. R. Grose, S. P. Corney, J. J. Katzfey, J. Bennett, and N. L. Bindoff,
“Improving projections of rainfall trends through regional climate
modeling and wide-ranging assessment,” in The 19th International
Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM2011), Perth, Western
Australia, Dec. 2011, pp. 2726-2732.
[34] M. R. Grose, et al, “Assessing rainfall trends and remote drivers in
regional climate change projections: The demanding test case of
Tasmania,” in IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental
Science, vol. 11, issue. 1, IOP Publishing, Aug.2010, p. 012038.
[35] J. Langford, ‘Weather and climate’, in: J. L. Davies (ed.), Atlas of
Tasmania, Department of Lands and Surveys, Hobart, Australia, 1965,
pp. 2-11.
[36] Bureau of Meteorology, Climate of Tasmania. AGPS, Canberra, 1993, p.
30.
[37] D. J. Shepherd, “Some characteristics of Tasmanian rainfall,” Australian
Meteorological Magazine, vol. 44, issue. 4, pp. 261-274, 1995.
[38] CSIRO, Climate projections for Australia. CSIRO Atmospheric
Research, Melbourne, 2001. http://www.cmar.csiro.au/e-print/open/
projections2001.pdf
[39] C. R. Godfred-Spenning, and T. T. Gibson, A synoptic climatology of
rainfall in HEC catchments, Antarctic CRC, 1995.
[40] R. Srikanthan, and B. J. Stewart, “Analysis of Australian rainfall data
with respect to climate variability and change,” Australian
Meteorological Magazine, vol. 39, issue. 1, pp. 11-20, 1991.
[41] C. Bryant, Understanding bushfire: trends in deliberate vegetation fires
in Australia, Canberra, Australia: Australian Institute of Criminology, p.
56, 2008.
[42] J. O'Donnell, and A. Livingston, Catchment Management in Tasmania-
A Hydro-Electric Commission Perspective, 1992.
[43] C. J. White, et al., Climate Futures for Tasmania: extreme events
technical report, 2010.
[44] H. B. Mann, Non-parametric tests against trends, Econometrica, 13, pp.
245-259, 1945.
[45] M. G. Kendall, Rank Correlation Methods. Griffin, London, 1975.
[46] S. Yue, P. Pilon, and G. Cavadias, “Power of the Mann–Kendall and
Spearman's rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological
series,” Journal of hydrology, vol. 259, issue. 1, pp. 254-271, March.
2002.
[1] L. Coates, “An overview of fatalities from some natural hazards in
Australia,” in Proc. Conference on Natural Disaster Reduction:
Engineers Australia, Canberra, ACT, Australia, 1996, pp. 49–54.
[2] R. Suppiah, and K. J. Hennessy, “Trends in total rainfall, heavy rain
events and number of dry days in Australia,” International Journal of
Climatology, vol.18, issue. 10, pp. 1141-1164, Aug. 1998.
[3] K. E. Kunkel, K. Andsager, and D. R. Easterling, “Long-term trends in
extreme precipitation events over the conterminous United States and
Canada,” Journal of Climate, vol. 12, issue. 8, pp. 2515 – 2527, Aug.
1999.
[4] K. E. Kunkel, et al., "Observations and regional climate model
simulations of heavy precipitation events and seasonal anomalies: A
comparison," Journal of Hydrometeorology, vol. 3.3, issue. 3, pp. 322 –
334, June. 2002.
[5] K. E. Kunkel, D. R. Easterling, K. Redmond, and K. Hubbard,
“Temporal variations of extreme precipitation events in the United
States: 1895–2000,” Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 30, issue. 17, p.
1900, Sep. 2003.
[6] R. Joseph, M. Ting, and P. Kumar, “Multiple-scale spatio-temporal
variability of precipitation over the coterminous United States,” Journal
of Hydrometeorology, vol. 1, issue. 5, pp. 373-392, Oct. 2000.
[7] M. Brunetti, M. Colacino, M. Maugeri, and T. Nanni, “Trends in the
daily intensity of precipitation in Italy from 1951 to 1996,” International
Journal of Climatology, vol. 21, issue. 3, pp. 299-316, March. 2001.
[8] S. K. Aryal, B. C. Bates, E. P. Campbell, Y. Li, M. J. Palmer, and N. R.
Viney, “Characterizing and modeling temporal and spatial trends in
rainfall extremes,” Journal of Hydrometeorology, vol. 10, issue. 1, pp.
241-253, Feb. 2009.
[9] M. N. Khaliq, T. B. Ouarda, P. Gachon, L. Sushama, and A. St-Hilaire,
“Identification of hydrological trends in the presence of serial and cross
correlations: A review of selected methods and their application to
annual flow regimes of Canadian rivers,” Journal of Hydrology, vol.
368, issue. 1, pp. 117-130, Apr. 2009.
[10] K. E. Trenberth, “Atmospheric moisture residence times and cycling:
Implications for rainfall rates and climate change,” Climatic change, vol.
39, issue. 4, pp. 667-694, Aug. 1998.
[11] L. V. Alexander, et al., “Global observed changes in daily climate
extremes of temperature and precipitation,” Journal of Geophysical
Research: Atmospheres (1984–2012), vol. 111, issue. D5, March. 2006.
[12] P. Y. Groisman, et al., “Trends in intense precipitation in the climate
record,” Journal of climate, vol. 18, issue. 9, pp. 1326-1350, May. 2005.
[13] G. Meehl, et al., Global climate projections, in Climate Change 2007:
The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the
Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, edited by S. Solomon et al., Cambridge Univ. Press,
Cambridge, U. K. 2007, pp. 747–845.
[14] P. G. Oguntunde, J. Friesen, N. van de Giesen, and H. H. Savenije,
“Hydroclimatology of the Volta River Basin in West Africa: Trends and
variability from 1901 to 2002,” Physics and Chemistry of the Earth,
Parts A/B/C, vol. 31, issue. 18, pp. 1180-1188, 2006.
[15] M. Cannarozzo, L. V. Noto, and F. Viola, “Spatial distribution of
rainfall trends in Sicily (1921-2000),” Physics and Chemistry of the
Earth, Parts A/B/C, vol. 31, issue. 18, pp. 1201-1211, 2006.
[16] K. Adamowski, and J. Bougadis, “Detection of trends in annual extreme
rainfall,” Hydrological Processes, vol. 17, issue. 17, pp. 3547-3560,
Dec. 2003.
[17] A. Mailhot, S. Duchesne, D. Caya, and G. Talbot, “Assessment of future
change in intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves for Southern
Quebec using the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM),” Journal
of hydrology, vol. 347, issue. 1, pp. 197-210, Dec. 2007.
[18] R. Hardwick Jones, S. Westra, and A. Sharma, “Observed relationships
between extreme sub‐daily precipitation, surface temperature, and
relative humidity,” Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 37, issue. 22,
Nov. 2010.
[19] G. Lenderink, and E. Van Meijgaard, “Increase in hourly precipitation
extremes beyond expectations from temperature changes,” Nature
Geoscience, vol. 1, issue. 8, pp. 511-514, July. 2008.
[20] A. Dai, X. Lin, and K. L. Hsu, “The frequency, intensity, and diurnal
cycle of precipitation in surface and satellite observations over low-and
mid-latitudes,” Climate dynamics, vol. 29, issue. 7, pp. 727-744, Dec.
2007.
[21] P. Leahy, G. Kiely, and T. M. Scanlon, “Managed grasslands: A
greenhouse gas sink or source?,” Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 31,
issue. 20, L20507, Oct. 2004.
[22] B. M. Reich, “Short-duration rainfall-intensity estimates and other
design aids for regions of sparse data,” Journal of Hydrology, vol. 1,
issue. 1, pp. 3-28, March. 1963.
[23] C. W. Landsea, G. A. Vecchi, L. Bengtsson, and T. R. Knutson, “Impact
of Duration Thresholds on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Counts,” Journal
of Climate, vol. 23, issue. 10, pp. 2508-2519, May. 2010.
[24] T. R. Knutson., C. Landsea, and K. A. Emanuel, “Tropical cyclones and
climate change: A review,” InGlobal Perspectives on Tropical
Cyclones: From Science to Mitigation, Singapore, World Scientific
Publishing Company, May. 2010, pp. 243-284.
[25] K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen, “Significant climate change of extreme rainfall in
Denmark,” Water Science & Technology, vol. 54, issue. 6-7, pp. 1-8,
2006.
[26] B. Yu, and D. T. Neil, “Long‐term variations in regional rainfall in the
south‐west of Western Australia and the difference between average and
high intensity rainfalls,” International Journal of Climatology, vol.13,
issue. 1, pp. 77-88, Jan. 1993.
[27] N. Nicholls, and A. Kariko, “East Australian rainfall events: Interannual
variations, trends, and relationships with the Southern
Oscillation,” Journal of Climate, vol. 6, issue. 6, pp. 1141-1152, June.
1993.
[28] M. Haylock, and N. Nicholls, “Trends in extreme rainfall indices for an
updated high quality data set for Australia, 1910-1998,” International
Journal of Climatology, vol. 20, issue. 13, pp. 1533-1541, Nov. 2000.
[29] J. Li, J. Feng, and Y. Li, “A possible cause of decreasing summer
rainfall in northeast Australia,” International Journal of
Climatology, vol. 32, issue. 7, pp. 995-1005, June. 2012.
[30] K. Haddad, A. Rahman, and J. Green, “Design rainfall estimation in
Australia: a case study using L moments and generalized least squares
regression,” Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk
Assessment, vol. 25, issue. 6, pp. 815-825, Aug. 2011.
[31] S. Westra, and S. A. Sisson, “Detection of non-stationarity in
precipitation extremes using a max-stable process model,” Journal of
Hydrology, vol. 406, issue. 1-2, pp. 119-128, Aug 2011.
[32] Y. R. Chen, B. Yu, and G. Jenkins, “Secular variation in rainfall and
intensity-frequency-duration curves in Eastern Australia,” Journal of
Water and Climate Change, vol. 4, issue. 3, pp. 244-251, 2013.
[33] M. R. Grose, S. P. Corney, J. J. Katzfey, J. Bennett, and N. L. Bindoff,
“Improving projections of rainfall trends through regional climate
modeling and wide-ranging assessment,” in The 19th International
Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM2011), Perth, Western
Australia, Dec. 2011, pp. 2726-2732.
[34] M. R. Grose, et al, “Assessing rainfall trends and remote drivers in
regional climate change projections: The demanding test case of
Tasmania,” in IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental
Science, vol. 11, issue. 1, IOP Publishing, Aug.2010, p. 012038.
[35] J. Langford, ‘Weather and climate’, in: J. L. Davies (ed.), Atlas of
Tasmania, Department of Lands and Surveys, Hobart, Australia, 1965,
pp. 2-11.
[36] Bureau of Meteorology, Climate of Tasmania. AGPS, Canberra, 1993, p.
30.
[37] D. J. Shepherd, “Some characteristics of Tasmanian rainfall,” Australian
Meteorological Magazine, vol. 44, issue. 4, pp. 261-274, 1995.
[38] CSIRO, Climate projections for Australia. CSIRO Atmospheric
Research, Melbourne, 2001. http://www.cmar.csiro.au/e-print/open/
projections2001.pdf
[39] C. R. Godfred-Spenning, and T. T. Gibson, A synoptic climatology of
rainfall in HEC catchments, Antarctic CRC, 1995.
[40] R. Srikanthan, and B. J. Stewart, “Analysis of Australian rainfall data
with respect to climate variability and change,” Australian
Meteorological Magazine, vol. 39, issue. 1, pp. 11-20, 1991.
[41] C. Bryant, Understanding bushfire: trends in deliberate vegetation fires
in Australia, Canberra, Australia: Australian Institute of Criminology, p.
56, 2008.
[42] J. O'Donnell, and A. Livingston, Catchment Management in Tasmania-
A Hydro-Electric Commission Perspective, 1992.
[43] C. J. White, et al., Climate Futures for Tasmania: extreme events
technical report, 2010.
[44] H. B. Mann, Non-parametric tests against trends, Econometrica, 13, pp.
245-259, 1945.
[45] M. G. Kendall, Rank Correlation Methods. Griffin, London, 1975.
[46] S. Yue, P. Pilon, and G. Cavadias, “Power of the Mann–Kendall and
Spearman's rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological
series,” Journal of hydrology, vol. 259, issue. 1, pp. 254-271, March.
2002.
@article{"International Journal of Earth, Energy and Environmental Sciences:68377", author = "Orpita U. Laz and Ataur Rahman", title = "Trends in Extreme Rainfall Events in Tasmania, Australia", abstract = "Climate change will affect various aspects of
hydrological cycle such as rainfall. A change in rainfall will affect
flood magnitude and frequency in future which will affect the design
and operation of hydraulic structures. In this paper, trends in subhourly,
sub-daily, and daily extreme rainfall events from 18 rainfall
stations located in Tasmania, Australia are examined. Two nonparametric
tests (Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s Rho) are applied to
detect trends at 10%, 5%, and 1% significance levels. Sub-hourly (6,
12, 18, and 30 minutes) annual maximum rainfall events have been
found to experience statistically significant upward trends at 10%
level of significance. However, sub-daily durations (1 hour, 3 and 12
hours) exhibit decreasing trends and no trends exists for longer
duration rainfall events (e.g. 24 and 72 hours). Some of the durations
(e.g. 6 minutes and 6 hours) show similar results (with upward
trends) for both the tests. For 12, 18, 60 minutes and 3 hours
durations both the tests show similar downward trends. This finding
has important implication for Tasmania in the design of urban
infrastructure where shorter duration rainfall events are more relevant
for smaller urban catchments such as parking lots, roof catchments
and smaller sub-divisions.
", keywords = "Climate change, design rainfall, Mann-Kendall test,
trends, Spearman’s Rho, Tasmania.", volume = "8", number = "12", pages = "824-5", }
