Impacts of Global Warming on the World Food Market According to SRES Scenarios
This research examines possible effects of climatic
change focusing on global warming and its impacts on world
agricultural product markets, by using a world food model developed
to consider climate changes. GDP and population for each scenario
were constructed by IPCC and climate data for each scenario was
reported by the Hadley Center and are used in this research to consider
results in different contexts. Production and consumption of primary
agriculture crops of the world for each socio-economic scenario are
obtained and investigated by using the modified world food model.
Simulation results show that crop production in some countries or
regions will have different trends depending on the context. These
alternative contexts depend on the rate of GDP growth, population,
temperature, and rainfall. Results suggest that the development of
environment friendly technologies lead to more consumption of food
in many developing countries. Relationships among environmental
policy, clean energy development, and poverty elimination warrant
further investigation.
[1] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment
Report (AR4) Working Grope 1 (WG1) Technical Summary, 2007, pp59.
[2] S. P. Long, E. A. Ainsworth, A. D. B. Leakey, J. Nosberger, and D. R. Ort,
"Food for Thought: Lower-than-expected crop yield stimulation with
rising CO2 concentration," Science, vol. 312, pp. 1918-1921, Jun. 2006
[3] D. B. Lobell and C. B. Field, "Global scale climate-crop yield
relationships and the impacts of recent warming," Environmental
Research Letters, vol. 2, no. 014002, pp.1-7, 2007.
(doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/2/1/014002)
[4] M. Parry, C. Rosenzweig, A. Iglesias, G. Fischer, and M. Livermore,
"Climate change and world food security: a new assessment," Global
Environmental Change, vol. 9, pp.S51-S67, 1999
[5] M. L. Parry, C. Rosenzweig, A. Iglesias, M. Livermore, and G. Fischer,
"Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES
emissions and socio-economic scenarios," Global Environmental Change,
vol. 14, pp.53-67, 2004.
[6] M. Parry, C. Rosenzweig, and M. Livermore, "Climate change, global
food supply and risk of hunger," Philosophical Transactions of the Royal
Society B, vol.360, pp. 2125-2138, Oct. 2005.
[7] W. Wu, R. Shibasaki, P. Yang, G. Tan, K. Matsumura, and K. Sugimoto,
"Global-scale modeling of future changes in sown areas of major crops,"
Ecological Modeling, vol.208, pp. 378-390, 2007.
[8] K. Oga and K. Yanagishima, IFPSIM International food and agricultural
policy simulation model (User-s guide), JIRCAS Working Report, no.1,
Tsukuba, Japan, 1996
[9] J. Furuya and O. Koyama, "Impacts of climatic change on world
agricultural product markets: Estimation of macro yield functions", Japan
Agricultural Research Quarterly, vol. 39, no. 2, pp.121-134, Apr. 2005.
[10] J. Furuya and S. Kobayashi, "Impact of global warming on agricultural
product markets: stochastic world food model analysis," Sustainable
Science, vol.4, pp. 71-79, 2009.
[11] IPCC working group III, "IPCC Special Report, Emissions Scenario,
Summary for Policymaker," IPCC, 2000. Aveilable
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/spm/sres-en.pdf
[12] U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Major world crop areas and
climatic profiles. Agricultural Handbook vol.664, Washington D.C.,
USA, 1994.
[1] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment
Report (AR4) Working Grope 1 (WG1) Technical Summary, 2007, pp59.
[2] S. P. Long, E. A. Ainsworth, A. D. B. Leakey, J. Nosberger, and D. R. Ort,
"Food for Thought: Lower-than-expected crop yield stimulation with
rising CO2 concentration," Science, vol. 312, pp. 1918-1921, Jun. 2006
[3] D. B. Lobell and C. B. Field, "Global scale climate-crop yield
relationships and the impacts of recent warming," Environmental
Research Letters, vol. 2, no. 014002, pp.1-7, 2007.
(doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/2/1/014002)
[4] M. Parry, C. Rosenzweig, A. Iglesias, G. Fischer, and M. Livermore,
"Climate change and world food security: a new assessment," Global
Environmental Change, vol. 9, pp.S51-S67, 1999
[5] M. L. Parry, C. Rosenzweig, A. Iglesias, M. Livermore, and G. Fischer,
"Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES
emissions and socio-economic scenarios," Global Environmental Change,
vol. 14, pp.53-67, 2004.
[6] M. Parry, C. Rosenzweig, and M. Livermore, "Climate change, global
food supply and risk of hunger," Philosophical Transactions of the Royal
Society B, vol.360, pp. 2125-2138, Oct. 2005.
[7] W. Wu, R. Shibasaki, P. Yang, G. Tan, K. Matsumura, and K. Sugimoto,
"Global-scale modeling of future changes in sown areas of major crops,"
Ecological Modeling, vol.208, pp. 378-390, 2007.
[8] K. Oga and K. Yanagishima, IFPSIM International food and agricultural
policy simulation model (User-s guide), JIRCAS Working Report, no.1,
Tsukuba, Japan, 1996
[9] J. Furuya and O. Koyama, "Impacts of climatic change on world
agricultural product markets: Estimation of macro yield functions", Japan
Agricultural Research Quarterly, vol. 39, no. 2, pp.121-134, Apr. 2005.
[10] J. Furuya and S. Kobayashi, "Impact of global warming on agricultural
product markets: stochastic world food model analysis," Sustainable
Science, vol.4, pp. 71-79, 2009.
[11] IPCC working group III, "IPCC Special Report, Emissions Scenario,
Summary for Policymaker," IPCC, 2000. Aveilable
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/spm/sres-en.pdf
[12] U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Major world crop areas and
climatic profiles. Agricultural Handbook vol.664, Washington D.C.,
USA, 1994.
@article{"International Journal of Business, Human and Social Sciences:54230", author = "J. Furuya and S. Kobayashi and S. D. Meyer", title = "Impacts of Global Warming on the World Food Market According to SRES Scenarios", abstract = "This research examines possible effects of climatic
change focusing on global warming and its impacts on world
agricultural product markets, by using a world food model developed
to consider climate changes. GDP and population for each scenario
were constructed by IPCC and climate data for each scenario was
reported by the Hadley Center and are used in this research to consider
results in different contexts. Production and consumption of primary
agriculture crops of the world for each socio-economic scenario are
obtained and investigated by using the modified world food model.
Simulation results show that crop production in some countries or
regions will have different trends depending on the context. These
alternative contexts depend on the rate of GDP growth, population,
temperature, and rainfall. Results suggest that the development of
environment friendly technologies lead to more consumption of food
in many developing countries. Relationships among environmental
policy, clean energy development, and poverty elimination warrant
further investigation.", keywords = "Global warming, SRES scenarios, World food model.", volume = "3", number = "9", pages = "1738-6", }