Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: The Case of Mexico

The causality between energy consumption and economic growth has been an important issue in the economic literature. This paper studies the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Mexico for the period of 1971-2011. In so doing, unit root and causality tests are applied. The results show that energy consumption and economic growth series are stationary and there is also a causality relationship running from economic growth to electricity consumption. Therefore, any energy conservation policy would have little or no impact at all on economic growth in México.




References:
[1] I. Ozturk, “A literature survey on energy-growth nexus”, Energy
Economics, vol. 38, no. 1, pp. 340-49, 2010.
[2] L. Dagher and T. Yacoubian, “The causal relationship between energy
consumption and economic growth in Lebanon”, Energy Policy, vol. 50,
pp. 795-801, 2012.
[3] H.P. Chu and T. Chang, “Nuclear energy consumption, oil consumption
and economic growth in G-6 countries: Bootstrap panel causality test”,
Energy Policy, vol. 48, pp. 762-769, 2012.
[4] J. Payne, “A survey of the electricity consumption-growth literature”,
Applied Energy, vol. 87, no. 3, pp. 723-731, 2010.
[5] J.C. Eggoh, Ch. Bangake and Ch. Rault 2011, “Energy consumption and
economic growth revisited in African countries”, Energy Policy, vol. 39,
no. 11, pp. 7408-7421, 2011.
[6] J. Squalli, “Electricity consumption and economic growth: Bounds and
causality analyses of OPEC members”, Energy Economics, vol. 29, no.
6, pp. 1192-1205, 2007.
[7] A. Ciarreta and A. Zarraga, “Economic growth-electricity consumption
causality in 12 European countries: A dynamic panel data approach”,
Energy Policy, vol. 38, no. 7, pp. 3790-376, 2010.
[8] G. S. Maddala and I-M. Kim, Unit Root, Cointegration and Structural
Change. UK, Cambridge University Press, 1998.
[9] O.J. Ebohon, “Energy, economic growth and causality in developing
countries”, Energy Policy, vol. 24, no. 5, pp. 457-453, 1996.
[10] U. Soytas and R. Sari, “Energy consumption and GDO: causality
relationship in G-7countries and emerging markets”, Energy Economics,
vol. 25, no. 1, pp. 33-37, 2003.
[11] W. Oh and K. Lee, “Causal relationship between energy consumption
and GDP revisited: the case of Korea 1970-1999”, Energy Economics,
vol. 26, no. 1, pp. 51-59, 2004.
[12] Y. Wolde-Rufael (2005), “Energy demand and economic growth: The
African experience”, Journal of Policy Modeling, vol. 27, no. 8, pp. 891-
903, 2005.
[13] C.C. Lee and C.P. Chang, “Energy consumption and economic growth
in Asian economies: A more comprehensive analysis using panel data”,
Resource and Energy Economics, vol. 30, no. 1, pp. 50-65, 2008.
[14] H.H. Lean and R. Smyth, “Multivariate Granger causality between
electricity generation, exports, prices and GDP in Malaysia”, Energy,
vol. 35, no. 9, pp. 3640-3648, 2010.
[15] S. Tsani, “Energy consumption and economic growth: A causality
analysis for Greece”, Energy Economics, vol. 32, no. 3, pp. 582-590,
2010.
[16] H.P. Chu and T. Chang (2012), “Nuclear energy consumption, oil
consumption and economic growth in G-6 countries: Bootstrap panel
causality test”, Energy Policy, vol. 48, pp. 762-769, 2012.
[17] L. Ozturk. and A. Acaravci, “The long-run and causal analysis of
energy, growth, openness and financial decolopment on carbon
emissions in Turkey”, Energy Economics, vol. 36, pp. 262-267, 2013.
[18] W.N. Cowan, T. Chang, R. Inglesa-Lotz and R. Gupta, “The nexus of
electricity consumption, economic growth and CO2 emissions in the
BRICS countries”, Energy Policy, vol. 66, pp. 359-368, 2014.
[19] G. Altinay and E. Karagol, “Structural breaks, unit root, and the
causality between energy consumption and GDP in Turkey”, Energy
Economics, vol. 26, no. 6, pp. 985-994, 2004.
[20] G. Altinay and E. Karagol, “Electricity consumption and economic
growth: Evidence from Turkey”, Energy Economics, vol. 27, no. 6, pp.
849-856, 2005.
[21] C.C. Lee and C.P. Chang, “Energy consumption and GDP revisited: A
panel analysis of developed and developing countries”, Energy
Economics, vol. 29, no. 6, pp. 1206-1223, 2007.
[22] P.K. Narayan and R. Smyth, “Energy consumption and real DP in G7
countries: New evidence from panel cointegration with structural
breaks”, Energy Economics, vol. 30, no. 5, pp. 2331-2341, 2009.
[23] C.F. Tang, M. Shahbaz and M. Arouri, “Re-investigating the electricity
consumption and economic growth nexus in Portugal”, Energy Policy,
vol. 62, pp. 1515-1521, 2013.
[24] M. Shahbaz, S. Khan and M. I. Tahir, “The dynamic links between
energy consumption, economic growth, financial development and trade
China: Fresh evidence from multivariate framework analysis”, Energy
Economics, vol. 40, pp. 8-21, 2013.
[25] L.M. Galindo and L. Sánchez, “El consumo de energía y la economía
Mexicana: un análisis empírico con VAR”, Economía Mexicana NUEVA
ÉPOCA, vol 18, no, 1, pp. 271-298, 2005.
[26] B.S. Cheng, “Energy consumption and economic growth in Brasil,
Mexico and Venezuela: a time series analysis”, Applied Economic
Letters, vol. 4, pp. 671-674, 1997.
[27] J. Lee and M. Strazicich, “Minimum lagrange multiplier unit root test
with two structural breaks”, Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 85,
no. 4, pp. 1082-1089, 2003.
[28] D.G. Fernandez, “Breaking trends and the money-output correlation”,
The Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 79, no. 4, pp. 674-79,
1997.
[29] M.Q. Islam, “Structural break, unit root, and the causality between
government expenditures and revenues” Applied Economics Letters, vol.
8, no. 8, pp. 565-567, 2001.
[30] E. Zivot and D. Andrews, “Further evidence on the great crash, the oil
price shock, and the unit root hypothesis”, Journal of Business and
Economic Statistics, vol. 10, no. 3, pp. 251-270, 1992.
[31] P. Perron, “Further evidence on breaking trend functions in
macroeconomic variables”, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 80, no. 2, pp.
355-385, 1997.
[32] R. Lumsdaine and D. Papell, “Multiple trend breaks and the unit root
hypothesis”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 79, no. 2, pp.
212-218, 1997.
[33] J. Lee and M. Strazicich, “Break point estimation and spurious rejections
with endogenous unit root tests”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and
Statistics, vol. 63, no. 5, pp. 535-558, 2001. [34] C.W. Granger, “Investigating causal relations by econometrics models
and cross spectral methods”, Econometrica, vol. 37, no. 3, pp. 424-438,
1969.
[35] C.A. Sims, “Money, income and causality”, American Economic
Review, vol. 62, no. 4, pp. 540-552, 1972.
[36] J. Geweke, R. Meese and W. Dent (1982), “Comparing alternatives tests
of causality in temporal systems”, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 21, pp.
161-194, 1982.
[37] H.Y. Toda and T. Yamamoto, “Statistical inference in vector
autoregressions with possibly integrated processes”, Journal of
Econometrics, vol. 66, pp. 225-250, 1995.
[38] World Bank, http://www.worldbank.org/ Retrieved on July 27, 2014.
[39] International Financial Statistics of the International Monetary Fund
http://elibrary-data.imf.org/. Retrieved on July 27, 2014.