Development of an ArcGIS Toolbar for Trend Analysis of Climatic Data
Climate change is a cumulative change in weather
patterns over a period of time. Trend analysis using non-parametric
Mann-Kendall test may help to determine the existence and
magnitude of any statistically significant trend in the climatic data.
Another index called Sen slope may be used to quantify the
magnitude of such trends. A toolbar extension to ESRI ArcGIS
named Arc Trends has been developed in this study for performing
the above mentioned tasks. To study the temporal trend of
meteorological parameters, 32 years (1971-2002) monthly
meteorological data were collected for 133 selected stations over
different agro-ecological regions of India. Both the maximum and
minimum temperatures were found to be rising. A significant
increasing trend in the relative humidity and a consistent significant
decreasing trend in the wind speed all over the country were found.
However, a general increase in rainfall was not found in recent years.
[1] D. R. Easterling, H. F. Diaz, A.V. Douglas, W. D. Hogg, K. E. Kunkel,
J. C. Rogers, and J. F. Wilkinson, "Long term observation for
monitoring extremes in the Americas," Climatic Change, vol. 42, pp.
285-308, 1999.
[2] IPCC, "Climate change 2001: The scientific basis," in J. T. Houghton,
Y. Ding, D. J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P. J. van der Linden, and D. Xiaosu,
(Eds.), Contribution of working group I to the third assessment report of
IPCC, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2001.
[3] H. S. Jung, Y. Choi, J. H. Oh, and G. H. Lim, "Recent trends in
temperature and precipitation over South Korea," Int. J. of Climatology,
vol. 22, pp. 1327-1337, 2002.
[4] R. C. Balling, Jr., and R. S. Cerveny, "Compilation and discussion of
trends in severe storms in the United States: Popular perception vs.
climate reality," Natural Hazards, vol. 29, pp. 103-112, 2003.
[5] N. Fauchereau, M. Trzaska, M. Rouault, and Y. Richard, "Rainfall
variability and changes in southern Africa during the 20th century in the
global warming context," Natural Hazards, vol. 29, pp. 139-154, 2003.
[6] Z. X. Xu, Y. N. Chen, and J. Y. Li, "Impact of climate change on water
resources in the Tarim river basin," Water Resour. Mgmt., vol. 18, pp.
439-458, 2004.
[7] A. K. Srivastava, "Climate change over India," in Proc. National
Workshop on Climate Change and its Impact on Health, India, 2007.
[8] U. S. De, "Climate change impact: Regional scenario," Mausam, vol. 52
no. 1, pp. 201-212, 2001.
[9] K. Rupakumar, K. Krishnakumar, R. G. Ashrit, S. K. Patwardhan, and
G. B. Pant, "Climate change in India: Observations and model
projections," in P. R. Shukla, S. K. Sharma, and P. V. Ramana, (Eds.),
Climate Change and India Issues, Concerns and Opportunities, Tata
McGraw-Hill Publishing Co. Ltd., New Delhi, 2002, pp. 24-75.
[10] S. K. Dash, and P. Rao, (Eds.), Assesment of climate change in India
and mitigation policies. WWF-India, New Delhi, 2003.
[11] R. G. S. Prakasa, A. K. Jaswal, and M. S. Kumar, "Effects of
urbanization on meteorological parameters-" Mausam, vol. 55, no. 3, pp.
429-440, 2004.
[12] D. R. Kothawale, and K. Rupakumar, "On the recent changes in surface
temperature trends over India," Geophys. Res. Lett., vol. 32, L18714,
2005.
[13] B. Parthasarathy, and O. N. Dhar, "Trend analysis of annual Indian
rainfall," Hydrological Science Bulletin, vol. 26 pp. 257-260, 1975.
[14] D. A. Mooley, and B. Parthasarathy, "Fluctuations of all India summer
monsoon rainfall during 1871-1978," Climatic Change, vol. 6, pp. 287-
301, 1984.
[15] V. Thapliyal, and S. M. Kulshrestha, "Climate changes and trends over
India," Mausam, vol. 42, pp. 333-338, 1991.
[16] G. B. Pant, and K. Rupakumar, Climates of south Asia. John Wiley and
Sons, Chichester, UK, 1997.
[17] G. B. Pant, K. Rupakumar, and H. P. Borgaonkar, "Climate and its longterm
variability over the western Himalaya during the past two
centuries," in S. K. Dash, and J. Bahadur, (Eds.), The Himalayan
Environment, New Age International (P) Limited, New Delhi, 1999, pp.
172-184.
[18] B. Stephenson, D. H. David, and K. Rupakumar, "Searching for a
fingerprint of global warming in the Asian summer monsoon," Mausam,
vol. 52, no. 1, pp. 213-220, 2001.
[19] A. Chowdhury, and V. P. Abhyankar, "Does precipitation pattern
foretell Gujarat climate becoming arid?," Mausam, vol. 30, pp. 85-90,
1979.
[20] R. H. Kripalani, A. Kulkarni, S. S. Sabade, and M. L. Khandekar,
"Indian monsoon variability in a global warming scenario," Natural
Hazards, vol. 29, no. 2, pp. 189-206, 2003.
[21] N. Singh, and N. A. Sontakke, "On climatic fluctuations and
environmental changes of the Indo-Gangetic plains, India," Climatic
Change, vol. 52, pp. 287-313, 2002.
[22] M. Murugan, P. K. Shetty, and M. B. Hiremath, "Atmospheric warming
induced changes in future rainfall and implications on water and
agriculture in India," Caspian J. Env. Sci., vol. 3, pp. 132-141, 2005.
[23] K. N. Krishnakumar, G. S. L. H. V. P. Rao, and C. S. Gopakumar,
"Rainfall trends in twentieth century over Kerala," India Atmospheric
Environment, vol. 43, pp. 1940-1944, 2009.
[24] S. K. Paramanik, and P. Jagannathan, "Climate change in India (II) -
Temperature," Indian J. Meteorol. Geophys., vol. 5, pp. 1-19, 1954.
[25] L. S. Hingane, K. Rupakumar, and B. V. Ramanamurthy, "Long term
needs of surface air temperature in India," J. Climatology, vol. 5, pp.
521-528, 1985.
[26] H. N. Srivastava, B. N. Dewan, S. K. Dikshit, G. S. P. Rao, S. S. Singh,
and R. Rao, "Decadal trends in climate over India," Mausam, vol. 43,
pp. 7-20, 1992.
[27] K. Rupakumar, K. Krishnakumar, and G. B. Pant, "Diurnal asymmetry
of surface air temperature trends over India," Geophysic. Res. Letters,
vol. 15, pp. 677-680, 1994.
[28] U. S. De, and R. K. Mukhopadhyay, "Severe heat wave over the Indian
subcontinent in 1998, in perspective of global climate," Current Science,
vol. 75, no. 12, pp. 1308-1311, 1998.
[29] R. S. Singh, P. Narain, and K. D. Sharma, "Climate changes in Luni
river basin of arid western Rajasthan (India)," Vayu Mandal, vol. 31,
nos. 1-4, pp. 103-106, 2001.
[30] P. K. Sen, "Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall-s
tau," J. Am. Stat. Assoc., vol. 63, pp. 1379-1389, 1968.
[31] H. B. Mann, "Non-parametric test against trend," Econometrika, vol. 13,
pp. 245-259, 1945.
[32] M. G. Kendall, Rank correlation methods. Charles Griffin, 1975, pp.
202.
[33] S. Yue, and C. Y. Wang, "The Mann-Kendall test modified by effective
sample size to detect trend in serially correlated hydrological series,"
Water Resour. Mgmt., vol. 18, pp. 201-218, 2004.
[34] N. C. Matalas, and W. B. Langbein, "Information content of the mean,"
J. Geophysic. Res., vol. 67, no. 9, pp. 3441-3448, 1962.
[35] J. D. Salas, J. W. Delleur, V. Yevjevich, and W. L. Lane, Applied
modelling of hydrologic time series. Water Resour. Pub., Littleton Co.,
USA, 1980.
[36] M. Zeiler, (Ed.), Exploring ArcObjects. Environmental Sysytem
Research Institute, Redlands, USA, 2001.
[37] J. L. Sehgal, D. K. Mondal, C. Mondal, and S. Vadivelu, Agroecological
regions of India. Tech. Bull., NBSS Pub. 24, National Bureau
of Soil Survey and Land Use Planning (NBSS&LUP), Indian Council of
Agric. Res. (ICAR), Nagpur, India, 1990.
[38] D. J. Gaffen, and R. J. Ross, "Climatology and trends of U.S. surface
humidity and temperature," J. Cli., vol. 12, no. 3, pp. 811-828, 1999.
[39] N. Chattopadhyay, and M. Hulme, "Evaporation and potential
evapotranspiration in India under conditions of recent and future climate
change," Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, vol. 87, pp. 55-73, 1996.
[1] D. R. Easterling, H. F. Diaz, A.V. Douglas, W. D. Hogg, K. E. Kunkel,
J. C. Rogers, and J. F. Wilkinson, "Long term observation for
monitoring extremes in the Americas," Climatic Change, vol. 42, pp.
285-308, 1999.
[2] IPCC, "Climate change 2001: The scientific basis," in J. T. Houghton,
Y. Ding, D. J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P. J. van der Linden, and D. Xiaosu,
(Eds.), Contribution of working group I to the third assessment report of
IPCC, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2001.
[3] H. S. Jung, Y. Choi, J. H. Oh, and G. H. Lim, "Recent trends in
temperature and precipitation over South Korea," Int. J. of Climatology,
vol. 22, pp. 1327-1337, 2002.
[4] R. C. Balling, Jr., and R. S. Cerveny, "Compilation and discussion of
trends in severe storms in the United States: Popular perception vs.
climate reality," Natural Hazards, vol. 29, pp. 103-112, 2003.
[5] N. Fauchereau, M. Trzaska, M. Rouault, and Y. Richard, "Rainfall
variability and changes in southern Africa during the 20th century in the
global warming context," Natural Hazards, vol. 29, pp. 139-154, 2003.
[6] Z. X. Xu, Y. N. Chen, and J. Y. Li, "Impact of climate change on water
resources in the Tarim river basin," Water Resour. Mgmt., vol. 18, pp.
439-458, 2004.
[7] A. K. Srivastava, "Climate change over India," in Proc. National
Workshop on Climate Change and its Impact on Health, India, 2007.
[8] U. S. De, "Climate change impact: Regional scenario," Mausam, vol. 52
no. 1, pp. 201-212, 2001.
[9] K. Rupakumar, K. Krishnakumar, R. G. Ashrit, S. K. Patwardhan, and
G. B. Pant, "Climate change in India: Observations and model
projections," in P. R. Shukla, S. K. Sharma, and P. V. Ramana, (Eds.),
Climate Change and India Issues, Concerns and Opportunities, Tata
McGraw-Hill Publishing Co. Ltd., New Delhi, 2002, pp. 24-75.
[10] S. K. Dash, and P. Rao, (Eds.), Assesment of climate change in India
and mitigation policies. WWF-India, New Delhi, 2003.
[11] R. G. S. Prakasa, A. K. Jaswal, and M. S. Kumar, "Effects of
urbanization on meteorological parameters-" Mausam, vol. 55, no. 3, pp.
429-440, 2004.
[12] D. R. Kothawale, and K. Rupakumar, "On the recent changes in surface
temperature trends over India," Geophys. Res. Lett., vol. 32, L18714,
2005.
[13] B. Parthasarathy, and O. N. Dhar, "Trend analysis of annual Indian
rainfall," Hydrological Science Bulletin, vol. 26 pp. 257-260, 1975.
[14] D. A. Mooley, and B. Parthasarathy, "Fluctuations of all India summer
monsoon rainfall during 1871-1978," Climatic Change, vol. 6, pp. 287-
301, 1984.
[15] V. Thapliyal, and S. M. Kulshrestha, "Climate changes and trends over
India," Mausam, vol. 42, pp. 333-338, 1991.
[16] G. B. Pant, and K. Rupakumar, Climates of south Asia. John Wiley and
Sons, Chichester, UK, 1997.
[17] G. B. Pant, K. Rupakumar, and H. P. Borgaonkar, "Climate and its longterm
variability over the western Himalaya during the past two
centuries," in S. K. Dash, and J. Bahadur, (Eds.), The Himalayan
Environment, New Age International (P) Limited, New Delhi, 1999, pp.
172-184.
[18] B. Stephenson, D. H. David, and K. Rupakumar, "Searching for a
fingerprint of global warming in the Asian summer monsoon," Mausam,
vol. 52, no. 1, pp. 213-220, 2001.
[19] A. Chowdhury, and V. P. Abhyankar, "Does precipitation pattern
foretell Gujarat climate becoming arid?," Mausam, vol. 30, pp. 85-90,
1979.
[20] R. H. Kripalani, A. Kulkarni, S. S. Sabade, and M. L. Khandekar,
"Indian monsoon variability in a global warming scenario," Natural
Hazards, vol. 29, no. 2, pp. 189-206, 2003.
[21] N. Singh, and N. A. Sontakke, "On climatic fluctuations and
environmental changes of the Indo-Gangetic plains, India," Climatic
Change, vol. 52, pp. 287-313, 2002.
[22] M. Murugan, P. K. Shetty, and M. B. Hiremath, "Atmospheric warming
induced changes in future rainfall and implications on water and
agriculture in India," Caspian J. Env. Sci., vol. 3, pp. 132-141, 2005.
[23] K. N. Krishnakumar, G. S. L. H. V. P. Rao, and C. S. Gopakumar,
"Rainfall trends in twentieth century over Kerala," India Atmospheric
Environment, vol. 43, pp. 1940-1944, 2009.
[24] S. K. Paramanik, and P. Jagannathan, "Climate change in India (II) -
Temperature," Indian J. Meteorol. Geophys., vol. 5, pp. 1-19, 1954.
[25] L. S. Hingane, K. Rupakumar, and B. V. Ramanamurthy, "Long term
needs of surface air temperature in India," J. Climatology, vol. 5, pp.
521-528, 1985.
[26] H. N. Srivastava, B. N. Dewan, S. K. Dikshit, G. S. P. Rao, S. S. Singh,
and R. Rao, "Decadal trends in climate over India," Mausam, vol. 43,
pp. 7-20, 1992.
[27] K. Rupakumar, K. Krishnakumar, and G. B. Pant, "Diurnal asymmetry
of surface air temperature trends over India," Geophysic. Res. Letters,
vol. 15, pp. 677-680, 1994.
[28] U. S. De, and R. K. Mukhopadhyay, "Severe heat wave over the Indian
subcontinent in 1998, in perspective of global climate," Current Science,
vol. 75, no. 12, pp. 1308-1311, 1998.
[29] R. S. Singh, P. Narain, and K. D. Sharma, "Climate changes in Luni
river basin of arid western Rajasthan (India)," Vayu Mandal, vol. 31,
nos. 1-4, pp. 103-106, 2001.
[30] P. K. Sen, "Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall-s
tau," J. Am. Stat. Assoc., vol. 63, pp. 1379-1389, 1968.
[31] H. B. Mann, "Non-parametric test against trend," Econometrika, vol. 13,
pp. 245-259, 1945.
[32] M. G. Kendall, Rank correlation methods. Charles Griffin, 1975, pp.
202.
[33] S. Yue, and C. Y. Wang, "The Mann-Kendall test modified by effective
sample size to detect trend in serially correlated hydrological series,"
Water Resour. Mgmt., vol. 18, pp. 201-218, 2004.
[34] N. C. Matalas, and W. B. Langbein, "Information content of the mean,"
J. Geophysic. Res., vol. 67, no. 9, pp. 3441-3448, 1962.
[35] J. D. Salas, J. W. Delleur, V. Yevjevich, and W. L. Lane, Applied
modelling of hydrologic time series. Water Resour. Pub., Littleton Co.,
USA, 1980.
[36] M. Zeiler, (Ed.), Exploring ArcObjects. Environmental Sysytem
Research Institute, Redlands, USA, 2001.
[37] J. L. Sehgal, D. K. Mondal, C. Mondal, and S. Vadivelu, Agroecological
regions of India. Tech. Bull., NBSS Pub. 24, National Bureau
of Soil Survey and Land Use Planning (NBSS&LUP), Indian Council of
Agric. Res. (ICAR), Nagpur, India, 1990.
[38] D. J. Gaffen, and R. J. Ross, "Climatology and trends of U.S. surface
humidity and temperature," J. Cli., vol. 12, no. 3, pp. 811-828, 1999.
[39] N. Chattopadhyay, and M. Hulme, "Evaporation and potential
evapotranspiration in India under conditions of recent and future climate
change," Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, vol. 87, pp. 55-73, 1996.
@article{"International Journal of Earth, Energy and Environmental Sciences:50886", author = "Arnab Bandyopadhyay and Anubhab Pal and Subhajit Debnath", title = "Development of an ArcGIS Toolbar for Trend Analysis of Climatic Data", abstract = "Climate change is a cumulative change in weather
patterns over a period of time. Trend analysis using non-parametric
Mann-Kendall test may help to determine the existence and
magnitude of any statistically significant trend in the climatic data.
Another index called Sen slope may be used to quantify the
magnitude of such trends. A toolbar extension to ESRI ArcGIS
named Arc Trends has been developed in this study for performing
the above mentioned tasks. To study the temporal trend of
meteorological parameters, 32 years (1971-2002) monthly
meteorological data were collected for 133 selected stations over
different agro-ecological regions of India. Both the maximum and
minimum temperatures were found to be rising. A significant
increasing trend in the relative humidity and a consistent significant
decreasing trend in the wind speed all over the country were found.
However, a general increase in rainfall was not found in recent years.", keywords = "Temporal trend, climate change, ArcGIS, Mann-
Kendall test, Sen slope", volume = "5", number = "12", pages = "778-8", }
